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Post by keppelbay on Nov 10, 2023 12:47:22 GMT
This week's approval of LLY's new weight loss drug zepbound won't bolster PFE's chances in the near term. LLy's is also an injectable. So if PFE can get an oral form approved, they could capture some market share.
FWIW I'm concerned about the enthusiasm for these drugs. The rapid weight loss can include significant loss of muscle mass along with adipose tissue. This could prove highly detrimental, particularly for older folks. Whether these concerns eventually dampen enthusiasm for the drugs remains to be seen (I'd bet not). Consider the implications for the medical equipment space related to elder-care & mobility...
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Post by mnfish on Nov 10, 2023 13:17:15 GMT
Olestra was approved by the FDA in 1996 and is now banned in many countries. It now exists as an industrial lubricant and paint additive. Just sayin.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 10, 2023 16:24:04 GMT
I posted this on Fido forum, question on medical device investing:
-----------------------------------
Supposedly....SUPPOSEDLY...The new diet pills, if widely successful, will result in a lesser need for several medical devices. Are the pills a fad, or not?? Clearly, with weight loss and improved diabetic situations, some medical devices would not be needed; and if one has a great imagination, many other med devices would have lesser demand. The positive is baby boomers entering an age when med devices typically are needed. Will latter-stage senior citizens take such weight loss pills? Market has sold off based on this...overdone? Disclosure: I own some IHI Medical Devices Fund.
Good luck sorting out this conundrum.
R48
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Post by chang on Nov 10, 2023 17:30:34 GMT
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Post by anitya on Nov 10, 2023 23:43:15 GMT
I need to re-read all my posts in this thread but from reading a few at the beginning, it seems I have been complaining about this sector for nearly 3 years. May be it is time to take profits and not worry about lost opportunity costs and get out of this sector bet altogether. This is the only dedicated sector bet I made many many years ago. It did not perform well during Covid which should have been the clue if I were attentive.
Not to mention the underperformance relative to S&P 500 for sometime now, the sector seems to have lost its defensive mojo.
I think you can still buy individual HC company stock, without assigning any sector bet to it.
So, let us share individual HC company stock ideas if individual stock investment appeals to you.
I am inclined to buy Pfizer here.
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Post by archer on Nov 11, 2023 1:56:09 GMT
David Giroux is over weight healthcare sector in TCAF 18.26% vs 13.9% in SPY as per Yahoo. I don't know what to make of it other than he must see some promise in his particular health sector picks. I post this because he has a good reputation as a fund manager.
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Post by chang on Nov 11, 2023 8:50:01 GMT
anitya PFE was passed on to me (at the original cost basis) from the 1990s, so I’m kind of stuck with it. More recently, I bought Roche, Novartis, Sanofi, and Novo-Nordisk last year. I’m in profit with these (although Sanofi got whacked recently) and plan to hold. They pay decent dividends and have good growth prospects.
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Post by anitya on Nov 11, 2023 16:42:27 GMT
chang , You also own quite a bit VCHAX VHCAX which is way overweight HC. Unfortunately, I own funds (PRHSX, VHT, FSPHX, FSMEX, and IHI) as sector bets. The first two should have profit, as they are long term holds. The other three had a profit but probably are in loss now. If I buy individual companies, I will sell funds to buy but will not be putting more money into the sector. I own some VCHAX VHCAX too.
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Post by chang on Nov 11, 2023 17:12:25 GMT
anitya I think you mean VHCAX. I haven't checked its holdings in a long time. But yes, I do own it.
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Post by anitya on Nov 11, 2023 18:38:28 GMT
chang, Yes. Fixed it. PrimeCap is a big HC favoring shop for a long time. I am starting to see that investing in active funds has the potential for inaction on our part even when we should have sold the fund. As such, I think I should not invest in active funds, unless I am willing to sell without FOMO. In any case, if you still have M* membership, look at your portfolio x-ray. I just did and it was revealing that I am 6+% overweight to HC. The real shock is I am 1.5% underweight Technology even though I have 15% in QQQ and live in Silicon Valley. No wonder my portfolio has not been performing.
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Post by chang on Nov 11, 2023 19:08:07 GMT
anitya I won't sell my PFE due to sitting on CGs, or my foreign HC stocks. But FSMEX in my IRA has been a disaster, especially alongside the other holdings - FSUTX, FICDX, FBRGX, and FISMX. Would anyone recommend cutting FSMEX loose and distributing the proceeds among the other funds?
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Post by anitya on Nov 11, 2023 19:38:37 GMT
For regret minimization, DCA.
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Post by chang on Nov 11, 2023 20:35:29 GMT
For regret minimization, DCA. I usually don’t DCA. As Hamlet used to say, if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly.
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Post by howaya on Nov 11, 2023 21:19:25 GMT
I need to re-read all my posts in this thread but from reading a few at the beginning, it seems I have been complaining about this sector for nearly 3 years. May be it is time to take profits and not worry about lost opportunity costs and get out of this sector bet altogether. This is the only dedicated sector bet I made many many years ago. It did not perform well during Covid which should have been the clue if I were attentive. Not to mention the underperformance relative to S&P 500 for sometime now, the sector seems to have lost its defensive mojo.
I think you can still buy individual HC company stock, without assigning any sector bet to it. So, let us share individual HC company stock ideas if individual stock investment appeals to you.I am inclined to buy Pfizer here. VGHCX may not be so great over recent years but it only lost 1% in 2022. Not too shabby. Yet, just like you, I have been wanting to reduce or fully eliminate my holdings in this fund for quite a while. Until I know where else to put the proceeds I cannot act on that desire, though. As for individual stocks, I held AMGN for roughly 55 weeks starting in mid October of 2021. That turned out to be my best move for the year. If it gets back down near to 200 again I would likely jump back in. Recent articles about PFE indicate it may stay down for quite a while; I have had a small position for decades.
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Post by archer on Nov 11, 2023 21:26:29 GMT
chang , Yes. Fixed it. PrimeCap is a big HC favoring shop for a long time. I am starting to see that investing in active funds has the potential for inaction on our part even when we should have sold the fund. As such, I think I should not invest in active funds, unless I am willing to sell without FOMO. In any case, if you still have M* membership, look at your portfolio x-ray. I just did and it was revealing that I am 6+% overweight to HC. The real shock is I am 1.5% underweight Technology even though I have 15% in QQQ and live in Silicon Valley. No wonder my portfolio has not been performing. Fidelity has a version of PF Xray also, but it is based on money one has in a fidelity account.
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Post by anovice on Nov 11, 2023 22:53:46 GMT
I need to re-read all my posts in this thread but from reading a few at the beginning, it seems I have been complaining about this sector for nearly 3 years. May be it is time to take profits and not worry about lost opportunity costs and get out of this sector bet altogether. This is the only dedicated sector bet I made many many years ago. It did not perform well during Covid which should have been the clue if I were attentive. Not to mention the underperformance relative to S&P 500 for sometime now, the sector seems to have lost its defensive mojo.
I think you can still buy individual HC company stock, without assigning any sector bet to it. So, let us share individual HC company stock ideas if individual stock investment appeals to you.I am inclined to buy Pfizer here. VGHCX may not be so great over recent years but it only lost 1% in 2022. Not too shabby. Yet, just like you, I have been wanting to reduce or fully eliminate my holdings in this fund for quite a while. Until I know where else to put the proceeds I cannot act on that desire, though. As for individual stocks, I held AMGN for roughly 55 weeks starting in mid October of 2021. That turned out to be my best move for the year. If it gets back down near to 200 again I would likely jump back in. Recent articles about PFE indicate it may stay down for quite a while; I have had a small position for decades. I should have sold VGHCX when the late Ed Owens retired in 2012.
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Post by roi2020 on Nov 11, 2023 23:26:20 GMT
VGHCX performed very well during Edward Owens' tenure.
"Owens, who was a veteran manager of the fund’s subadvisor, Wellington Management, posted exceptional returns over his long tenure. The strategy’s 16.4% annualized gain from its May 1984 inception to his Sept. 4, 2012, retirement outpaced the S&P 500 index’s 10.7%. That made him not only one of the most accomplished sector fund managers ever but also led him to be often included in lists of the best equity fund managers overall." www.morningstar.com/funds/former-manager-vanguard-fund-dies
Jean Hynes became the lead manager when Mr. Owens retired. The fund's performance was often mediocre after Ms. Hynes took the reigns. However, VGHAX generated top decile category performance in 2022 and top quintile category performance YTD.
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Post by richardsok on Nov 12, 2023 1:32:58 GMT
For regret minimization, DCA. I usually don’t DCA. As Hamlet used to say, if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly. *ahem* That's Macbeth, fella -- riffing on regicide. Not Hamlet. The prince of Denmark thought about it, and thought too long. Thane of Cawdor thought too --- but not enough.
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Post by archer on Nov 12, 2023 3:15:40 GMT
I usually don’t DCA. As Hamlet used to say, if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly. *ahem* That's Macbeth, fella -- riffing on regicide. Not Hamlet. The prince of Denmark thought about it, and thought too long. Thane of Cawdor thought too --- but not enough. You guys sound like something off of Billions LOL! Just watched the series finally earlier this week.
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Post by chang on Nov 12, 2023 7:21:12 GMT
I usually don’t DCA. As Hamlet used to say, if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly. *ahem* That's Macbeth, fella -- riffing on regicide. Not Hamlet. The prince of Denmark thought about it, and thought too long. Thane of Cawdor thought too --- but not enough. Oops, my bad. Guess I just had Hamlet on the brain. (I live in the borough of Tower Hamlets, by the way.)
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 12, 2023 8:10:48 GMT
VGHAX performed very well during Edward Owens' tenure.
"Owens, who was a veteran manager of the fund’s subadvisor, Wellington Management, posted exceptional returns over his long tenure. The strategy’s 16.4% annualized gain from its May 1984 inception to his Sept. 4, 2012, retirement outpaced the S&P 500 index’s 10.7%. That made him not only one of the most accomplished sector fund managers ever but also led him to be often included in lists of the best equity fund managers overall." www.morningstar.com/funds/former-manager-vanguard-fund-dies
Jean Hynes became the lead manager when Mr. Owens retired. The fund's performance was often mediocre after Ms. Hynes took the reigns. However, VGHAX generated top decile category performance in 2022 and top quintile category performance YTD. My bold added above. Hmmm. Glad I have owned this Fidelity sector fund, since inception! R48
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Post by Norbert on Nov 12, 2023 9:15:48 GMT
I usually don’t DCA. As Hamlet used to say, if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly. *ahem* That's Macbeth, fella -- riffing on regicide. Not Hamlet. The prince of Denmark thought about it, and thought too long. Thane of Cawdor thought too --- but not enough. It's a joke in the Lindsay Lohan movie, "Freaky Friday". youtu.be/olbjSqcBh6I?si=4oU7-Be-j9CMwCKo
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Post by bizman on Nov 12, 2023 22:40:35 GMT
Just had another thought on the underperformance of the Pharmas in particular, aside from the GLP-1 makers NVO and LLY.
The presence of Lina Khan at the FTC is a real inhibitor for the normal functioning of the Pharma space. Standing in the way of the big companies buying smaller outfits with breakthrough results really decreases efficiency as the one-drug biotechs are made to be bought out as they don't have the resources and expertise the big guys have to do all of the studies and such necessary to commercialize a medicine. It also stands in the way of the cost-cutting that can occur from duplicative functions in a merger.
In that sense, for Pharma to recover, we may need a change in administrations, or at least a sea change at the FTC. At least all else equal.
Edited to add:
Because absent such a change, it will be harder and harder for companies like PFE to continue to fill in their product pipelines to counteract their future patent cliffs.
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Post by anitya on Nov 12, 2023 23:08:28 GMT
bizman, equal weighted XPH trailing the cap weighted IHE and PPH.
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Post by bizman on Nov 13, 2023 2:02:59 GMT
bizman , equal weighted XPH trailing the cap weighted IHE and PPH. That's interesting, and would seem to perhaps argue against my point. Though I'm not well-versed enough to know if the "one-drug biotechs" are included in XPH or in another index or ETF? Though theoretically, if they are included, then it could depress prices of the small guys even more if their business models depend on being bought out by the biggies, which seems problematic at least under the current regulatory circumstances? Who knows. I don't. Edited to add:Another possibility is that big and small Pharma could get around an inability to do M&A by doing joint ventures like PFE and BioNTech did for their Covid vaccine. I assume a JV doesn't require regulatory approval?
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Post by chang on Nov 14, 2023 18:06:06 GMT
IHI appears to be closing in on a two day gain of nearly 4%. Unquestionably because I ruminated about selling FSMEX. Fortunately I didn’t do anything yet, but it bears watching.
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Post by anitya on Nov 14, 2023 18:17:55 GMT
IHI appears to be closing in on a two day gain of nearly 4%. Unquestionably because I ruminated about selling FSMEX. Fortunately I didn’t do anything yet, but it bears watching. Possibly every time we complained about this sector was likely the local low price (that is how retail investors sell low). When it makes a recovery we tend to forget what had annoyed us and so, agree it bears watching this time.
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Post by chang on Nov 14, 2023 19:04:16 GMT
IHI appears to be closing in on a two day gain of nearly 4%. Unquestionably because I ruminated about selling FSMEX. Fortunately I didn’t do anything yet, but it bears watching. Possibly every time we complained about this sector was likely the local low price (that is how retail investors sell low). When it makes a recovery we tend to forget what had annoyed us and so, agree it bears watching this time. How true! When something is going up and hitting new highs, it's very hard to sell.
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Post by anitya on Nov 14, 2023 21:22:17 GMT
chang , XLV is up only 0.7% on the day. Of course, high beta names in HC are up quite a bit, just like high Beta in the rest of the market.
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Post by anitya on Dec 5, 2023 18:08:49 GMT
anitya I won't sell my PFE due to sitting on CGs, or my foreign HC stocks. But FSMEX in my IRA has been a disaster, especially alongside the other holdings - FSUTX, FICDX, FBRGX, and FISMX. Would anyone recommend cutting FSMEX loose and distributing the proceeds among the other funds? chang, Time to reassess?
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