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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 31, 2023 16:18:16 GMT
Dear BBers,
Time to express your opinions... PICK no more than 5 selections.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 1, 2024 16:49:43 GMT
Bump.
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 1, 2024 18:03:36 GMT
Might as well be a poll on what the Fed may or may not do. Without that information, it's hard to hazard a guess. If they stay the course for most of this coming year, then I doubt inflation will be a problem. If they start cutting in the first quarter, we could easily see increased inflation. It takes time for changes to filter through the economy, and my personal feeling is that rushing would be problematic. To this point, I'd say we've done better than we had any right to expect, and the AI revolution probably saved our bacon!
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 1, 2024 19:43:05 GMT
Thanks for your continued participation... there are 5 categories in the poll: inflation, economy, credit events, unrest and black swan. The first 4 categories have multiple choices. So, please choose 4 opinions there. Additionally, if you think a black swan event could occur then you can choose the 5th opinion.
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Post by win1177 on Jan 1, 2024 21:07:25 GMT
I picked inflation comes down, economy plods along, credit event is likely, and business as usual in terms of unrest in global economy. We’ll see.
Win
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Post by archer on Jan 1, 2024 22:07:07 GMT
I picked inflation coming down because the fed is hell bent on 2% and will do what is necessary to achieve their goal. They might tolerate a slower decline but I can't see them sitting back while it stays at current levels.
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Post by johntaylor on Jan 2, 2024 14:30:49 GMT
Perhaps something quasi-economic will pop up? E.g., "(Reuters) China's 'reunification' with Taiwan is inevitable, President Xi Jinping said."
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 3, 2024 23:52:52 GMT
With 25 voters, the results indicate US inflation stubborn, economy would plod along and BAU in terms of global economy.
Please continue to vote.
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Post by archer on Jan 4, 2024 0:06:25 GMT
I'm not clear on what constitutes stubborn inflation. It is currently 3.1% YOY. I think for it to remain stubborn, it will have to not come down further with the Fed continuing to raise rates. Or a case could be made that if it remains around 3% and the Fed maintains current rates, that could still be stubborn because it doesn't come back to 2% on its own. I voted for subsiding meaningfully, but with only 1 % to go, I'm not sure how meaningful a 1% drop is. Maybe it doesn't need to be defined to exactness, and we can have a just for fun poll. :-)
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 4, 2024 2:04:55 GMT
Mild recession, I’ve never seen a mythical soft landing.
Lots of cautionary small Fed cuts meaning 6 not 3.
Many unsettling world and domestic events continue. Unknowns are always around.
Long term investing opportunities continue for the younger investors out there.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 5, 2024 1:33:27 GMT
With 25 voters, the results indicate US inflation stubborn, economy would plod along and BAU in terms of global economy. Please continue to vote. 30 voters... and the top 3 selections are still the same: stubborn inflation, economy plods along, and BAU in terms of global economy. Those of you that have not yet voted, please do. |
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Post by bizman on Jan 6, 2024 1:38:04 GMT
Sorry for being late to the party. I chose inflation stubborn, Economy plod along, Economy pick up speed, BAU global unrest, and Black Swan event.
Big picture I see a huge potential positive effect from an AI revolution over the next 5 - 15 years which I see as the real deal as opposed to crypto and other hyped events that I see as little more than tradable scams, or at best, the equivalent of vestigial organs.
The Black Swan I fear with a subjective 10-25% probability (though Nassim Taleb would call it a White Swan) is Niall Ferguson's thesis of a high probability of China blockading Taiwan this year, which would put Biden and America in the position of Kruschev and the Russians in a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis. I pray this doesn't come true as it is the one potential massive negative for America's economy and people that I can see on the horizon. Either a war with massive damage that we could lose, or a capitulation to China would be very bad, I think. China and friends replacing the Pax Americana with authoritarian drama and a return to life in the jungle and no "rules-based international order" is a world I'm not eager to see come to pass, to say the least. Hopefully just a bad dream and Xi isn't that reckless. But as they say, hope is not a strategy.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 6, 2024 23:30:03 GMT
Sorry for being late to the party. I chose inflation stubborn, Economy plod along, Economy pick up speed, BAU global unrest, and Black Swan event. Big picture I see a huge potential positive effect from an AI revolution over the next 5 - 15 years which I see as the real deal as opposed to crypto and other hyped events that I see as little more than tradable scams, or at best, the equivalent of vestigial organs. The Black Swan I fear with a subjective 10-25% probability (though Nassim Taleb would call it a White Swan) is Niall Ferguson's thesis of a high probability of China blockading Taiwan this year, which would put Biden and America in the position of Kruschev and the Russians in a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis. I pray this doesn't come true as it is the one potential massive negative for America's economy and people that I can see on the horizon. Either a war with massive damage that we could lose, or a capitulation to China would be very bad, I think. China and friends replacing the Pax Americana with authoritarian drama and a return to life in the jungle and no "rules-based international order" is a world I'm not eager to see come to pass, to say the least. Hopefully just a bad dream and Xi isn't that reckless. But as they say, hope is not a strategy. Xi is not that reckless. China economy is deflating with no end in sight to the real-estate morass there. China consumers own property with losing value and sticky mortgages - and property is most of their net worth. Government is trying all new tricks to prop up the consumer before s/he revolts en masse. And, global companies are retracting from China in large scale. I doubt war is top of mind for Xi right now. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 6, 2024 23:32:29 GMT
35 voters.. top 3 choices are still trending the same way.
As a contrarian thought - that means something else is likely to occur 😉
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Post by Chahta on Jan 6, 2024 23:50:35 GMT
It appears that a recession may not happen. The Fed already hinting at rate cuts and the economy still chugging along. I felt all along this time was different because of Covid and lack of workers to fill jobs.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 7, 2024 0:15:25 GMT
35 voters.. top 3 choices are still trending the same way. As a contrarian thought - that means something else is likely to occur 😉 That seems like most think nothing is going to change and we’re doomed, lol. This all goes away someday like always to be replaced by something else. The odds seems to be tipping in the wrong direction though for now, that’s all. |
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Post by gman57 on Jan 7, 2024 0:37:19 GMT
35 voters.. top 3 choices are still trending the same way. As a contrarian thought - that means something else is likely to occur 😉 That seems like most think nothing is going to change and we’re doomed, lol. This all goes away someday like always to be replaced by something else. The odds seems to be tipping in the wrong direction though for now, that’s all. I don't understand? The market is almost at an all time high, continued low employment, inflation moderating, most people have more money than they ever had. We just had a fantastic 2023 after a lousy 2022. Seems like things are going the right way to me. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 7, 2024 1:00:03 GMT
gman57 , When rates are high, earnings are slowing, maybe employment is moderating with a few layoffs and market values are going up that looks like irrational exuberance to me. New technology companies in the 90’s kept going up in value including some without earnings. Something has to give eventually. That didn’t end well. Earnings follow prices or prices follow earnings which seem to be going in the wrong direction.
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Post by bizman on Jan 7, 2024 1:16:51 GMT
Sorry for being late to the party. I chose inflation stubborn, Economy plod along, Economy pick up speed, BAU global unrest, and Black Swan event. Big picture I see a huge potential positive effect from an AI revolution over the next 5 - 15 years which I see as the real deal as opposed to crypto and other hyped events that I see as little more than tradable scams, or at best, the equivalent of vestigial organs. The Black Swan I fear with a subjective 10-25% probability (though Nassim Taleb would call it a White Swan) is Niall Ferguson's thesis of a high probability of China blockading Taiwan this year, which would put Biden and America in the position of Kruschev and the Russians in a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis. I pray this doesn't come true as it is the one potential massive negative for America's economy and people that I can see on the horizon. Either a war with massive damage that we could lose, or a capitulation to China would be very bad, I think. China and friends replacing the Pax Americana with authoritarian drama and a return to life in the jungle and no "rules-based international order" is a world I'm not eager to see come to pass, to say the least. Hopefully just a bad dream and Xi isn't that reckless. But as they say, hope is not a strategy. Xi is not that reckless. China economy is deflating with no end in sight to the real-estate morass there. China consumers own property with losing value and sticky mortgages - and property is most of their net worth. Government is trying all new tricks to prop up the consumer before s/he revolts en masse. And, global companies are retracting from China in large scale. I doubt war is top of mind for Xi right now. , I sure hope and pray you are right! I just remember all the experts who confidently assured us that Putin would never pull the trigger in Ukraine. And the way the world stumbled into the disaster of WWI. It makes me think of Will and Ariel Durant's saying that you should learn enough from history to respect other peoples' delusions. The big mistake that gets made continuously all over again is to assume that people of different cultures think the same as "we" do. Their priorities may differ from ours. But again. Hope and pray you are right! |
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
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Post by mani on Jan 7, 2024 1:17:45 GMT
35 voters.. top 3 choices are still trending the same way. As a contrarian thought - that means something else is likely to occur 😉 That seems like most think nothing is going to change and we’re doomed, lol. That's interesting how everyboby sees something different in the same data. I see the top 3 and all I think, is "yup. plodding along, slowly inching new highs, nothing too exciting, GOOD" |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 7, 2024 1:26:15 GMT
Xi is not that reckless. China economy is deflating with no end in sight to the real-estate morass there. China consumers own property with losing value and sticky mortgages - and property is most of their net worth. Government is trying all new tricks to prop up the consumer before s/he revolts en masse. And, global companies are retracting from China in large scale. I doubt war is top of mind for Xi right now. , I sure hope and pray you are right! I just remember all the experts who confidently assured us that Putin would never pull the trigger in Ukraine. And the way the world stumbled into the disaster of WWI. It makes me think of Will and Ariel Durant's saying that you should learn enough from history to respect other peoples' delusions. The big mistake that gets made continuously all over again is to assume that people of different cultures think the same as "we" do. Their priorities may differ from ours. But again. Hope and pray you are right! Ukraine situation is very different. Obama assured Putin that there is no intention to draw Ukraine into NATO, but subsequent signals started to be different and Putin did not want any of that. So, Ukraine war is different and predicated on if Ukraine is wooed into NATO. The flame needs to keep burning for the blame to keep going going and going... and the politicians make money off of the flame/blame, hopefully you get my drift. China is in no position to wage a war with Taiwan since most developed nations will immediately take sides (of Taiwan). And keep in mind, China has very few friends in the SE Asian neighborhood. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 7, 2024 1:29:19 GMT
That seems like most think nothing is going to change and we’re doomed, lol. That's interesting how everyboby sees something different in the same data. I see the top 3 and all I think, is "yup. plodding along, slowly inching new highs, nothing too exciting, GOOD" Yep - man proposes, market disposes... |
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Post by Norbert on Jan 7, 2024 8:54:12 GMT
steadyeddy , I sure hope and pray you are right! I just remember all the experts who confidently assured us that Putin would never pull the trigger in Ukraine. And the way the world stumbled into the disaster of WWI. It makes me think of Will and Ariel Durant's saying that you should learn enough from history to respect other peoples' delusions. The big mistake that gets made continuously all over again is to assume that people of different cultures think the same as "we" do. Their priorities may differ from ours. But again. Hope and pray you are right! Ukraine situation is very different. Obama assured Putin that there is no intention to draw Ukraine into NATO, but subsequent signals started to be different and Putin did not want any of that. So, Ukraine war is different and predicated on if Ukraine is wooed into NATO. The flame needs to keep burning for the blame to keep going going and going... and the politicians make money off of the flame/blame, hopefully you get my drift. China is in no position to wage a war with Taiwan since most developed nations will immediately take sides (of Taiwan). And keep in mind, China has very few friends in the SE Asian neighborhood. The biggest risk for us in 2024 is probably an unexpected geopolitical event. I don't agree that China is so isolated. It's a member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The BRICS saw a major expansion last year, to include Iran. www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2023-seeking-alternate-world-order#Meanwhile, Putin is feeling strong and Zelensky is looking tired. The US effort to expand NATO to Russia's front door seems to have backfired. (It's not obvious to me why Biden picked a fight with Russia, instead of accepting neutrality for Ukraine!) Meanwhile, the US continues to appease Iran, despite Iran's increasingly aggressive actions. I conclude that our Russia missteps and projection of weakness regarding Iran make a Chinese move against Taiwan more likely. They're certainly preparing for conflict. If China acts successfully, US global leadership will be threatened. The stock market will take a big hit. Meanwhile, the US has lost control of its borders, crime in major cities is being ignored, and our top universities have been overrun by the Woke contingent. Please tell me why I'm wrong to be concerned about the situation ... |
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Post by richardsok on Jan 7, 2024 11:50:12 GMT
Agree with every word Norbert posted. In the case of China/Taiwan, moreover, a vibrant little war on one's borders is a time-tested ploy dictators use to shore up support when it has been eroding. Dictators are apt to strike when domestic politics go sour. Secondly, Xi seems nothing if not ambitious. If he is determined to be among the Pantheon of modern China's great leaders, a quick and glorious re-unification (after a couple of weeks of exciting battle) would fit the bill nicely. By all accounts, China's is a splendid modern navy.
As for the "world" ganging up on China if an attack or a blockade occurs -- the "world" has ALREADY abandoned Taiwan in every single case when the mainland demanded each country drop official recognition if they wanted good relations with Beijing. And how'd you like to risk a major cyber/impulse attack on your nation's electrical infrastructure? Feeling lucky, fellas?
If I read the results of our 2024 Poll, "more of the same" seems to be the runaway choice -- which is pretty much the safe bet in all such predictions. Future events seem so random when they occur....(like Covid, like Ukraine) but when they do, all such safe bets go..... pfffft.
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Lastly, we're missing out on the true un-fudge-able prediction for 2024 --- is it to be BIDEN? TRUMP? or (...specify your darkhorse...).
I took a peek at some British oddsmakers. Covers.com and Bet365 are close, roughly calling it Trump 45% vs Biden 33%.
Predictit shows Trump & Desantis near even for the nomination, but Biden trailing either.
Oddschecker Tr: 7/5 vs Bi 9/4 (I'm not sure how those last numbers are interpreted. Might it mean a $4 bet for Biden wins you $9? Newsom and Michele O are far back. I'd have supposed them closer).
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 7, 2024 12:54:02 GMT
mani , I guess we’ll find out. It’s only 1 year, unpredictable. I’m just going on past facts. I’ve never seen a soft landing. Consumerism being 18T of a 25T economy seize up based on who knows what. Can’t control that. This leads to more layoffs etc. a chain reaction. I’ve never seen values of companies continue to go up when their earnings slow or decline. Prices do get ahead of earnings and earnings ahead of values though. The term “this time is different” for me was coined in the 90’s along with “irrational exuberance” before market values declined to more rational valuations, the mean. Now the market could plod along for years waiting for this bout of multiple worldwide bad news to dissipate say another 5-7 years or so more which would also be bad news for retired spend down investors. Now that has occurred in the past, the 70’s. A quick deep recession shakes everything out much quicker which I’ve also seen in the past, the early 80’s.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 7, 2024 13:39:56 GMT
Looks to me the poll revealed that most opinions fall at the closest neutral selection.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 7, 2024 13:40:56 GMT
Norbert, richardsok, I appreciate your views on China being different from mine. That is a good discourse. Agree on US going downhill on all the aspects Norbert mentioned. Election is still a wild-card, many tools exist for the ruling party to eke out a win. Can't name the tools here.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 7, 2024 14:24:37 GMT
One can always read English language foreign papers. It says here China wants to strengthen ties with the U.S. www.chinadaily.com.cn/ So is it all happy days or the daily gloom and doom to add to your regular daily gloom and doom like in the U.S. We’re talking about two militaristic cultures and you can add Russia to that. Same old same old, power and money. One is free to choose to believe any view they want. For what purpose who knows. I also check Al Jazeera, Straits Times and BBC news. SOS. I’m probably on a national monitor list everywhere.🇨🇦 |
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Post by Norbert on Jan 7, 2024 15:36:33 GMT
Very interesting responses. You can sure tell what type of media people consume on their view of the of 2024 economic outcome. I think it's good to have both optimistic and pessimistic views rather than only seeing one viewpoint. We shall see, reality will most likely be somewhere in the middle. It's impossible to know the probability that a "black swan" will appear. China is a "tail risk": smallish probability, but huge potential impact. Our challenge is portfolio construction, including optional attention to tail risks. The risk of a major conflict is clearly > zero, perhaps higher than normal. Much has been written about managing such portfolio risks ... |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jan 7, 2024 16:27:43 GMT
All possible events. We can agree that there is some tail risk. We may have different opinions of what they are. How are others positioning themselves for such event(s)? I am throwing a few dollars at EDV on big drop days. I am also holding 5-7% cash. No short positions, as I'll leave that to my rich uncle. Do you have any other actionable thoughts here? Thanks.
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