keppelbay
Commander
Posts: 131
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Post by keppelbay on Jan 7, 2024 16:35:01 GMT
Perhaps folks votes are more revealing about what they hope will happen - muddle through. If you seriously believe there is trouble ahead, you kind of have to have a plan of action... Some of you probably do.
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Post by archer on Jan 7, 2024 16:48:08 GMT
I question the logic of designing a PF based on a black swan event when I have the flexibility to change my investments within a few trading hours should one occur. If the unknown odds are >0, there is of course the possibility. Whatever the estimated % of the odds are, on the flip side there is a % odds that no such event will occur. One can't prepare for one without it being at the expense of the other. For buy and hold investors, a distinction must be made between market timing based on guessing the future and responding to black swans when they appear.
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Post by howaya on Jan 7, 2024 16:49:34 GMT
All possible events. We can agree that there is some tail risk. We may have different opinions of what they are. How are others positioning themselves for such event(s)? I am throwing a few dollars at EDV on big drop days. I am also holding 5-7% cash. No short positions, as I'll leave that to my rich uncle. Do you have any other actionable thoughts here? Thanks. Well, Norbert might like LMT, GD, and similars. Probably not as much as being stranded on an uncharted island with Scarlett, though.
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Post by Norbert on Jan 7, 2024 17:22:22 GMT
I'm just thinking of conventional hedges, like gold and government debt. Look at the difference between owning 100% Wellington (blue) vs. 60% Wellington + 20% GLD + 20% PGOVX (red) since 2004. Slightly lower returns, but far tamer drawdowns during the subprime and Covid panic: (Click to enlarge.)
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jan 7, 2024 17:54:49 GMT
Norbert, Thanks. I guess my EDV isn't that much different from PGOVX. I've never done well with gold timing. I think I'll go with cash paying around 5%. As an aside, Mr. Pony points out that the CEFs have a history of continuing cash flow in downturns. So, I'm continuing to hold a 15% position there. Nothing is perfect.
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Post by fred495 on Jan 7, 2024 19:04:51 GMT
Norbert said: "Meanwhile, the US has lost control of its borders, crime in major cities is being ignored, and our top universities have been overrun by the Woke contingent.
Please tell me why I'm wrong to be concerned about the situation ...
Re. crime: Quoting David Snowball of MFO in the January 2024 issue:
"The US crime rate is plummeting. (Didn’t see that coming, did you?) The crime rate has been falling (with the exception of the pandemic years 2020-21) throughout this century. By most measures, it was the lowest in 50 years. Murders are down nationally by 12%. Detroit saw a century low in murder. Violent crime in NYC dropped by double digits. Every category of crime, except car theft, is down. And the decrease is accelerating, leading David Graham to describe it as “a peace wave” (The Atlantic, 12/17/2023)."
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Post by chang on Jan 7, 2024 19:36:33 GMT
Crime rates apparently depend on the political bias of the source, as well as which data is used and how. I spent about 20 minutes trying to ascertain the facts, and the facts are as as clear as mud. One of the variables is whether crimes were reported or not. It appears that murders are down, while property crimes, theft, carjacking, and hate crimes are up. This was a common takeaway in the various sites I read. There is obviously a problem with record high resignation rates and record low recruitment rates of police officers. It's hard to believe that this won't have a short-term or long-term impact. This is a particularly interesting page: counciloncj.org/did-violent-crime-go-up-or-down-last-year-yes-it-did/ "The United States has two primary ways of measuring the nation’s crime rate: the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Earlier this week, the FBI released 2022 UCR data that showed a drop in the nation’s violent crime rate. There is little doubt that murder declined last year, but NCVS data released in September showed that total violent crime victimization rose in 2022. The divergence between the nation’s two crime measures makes it uncertain whether violent crime actually went up or down in 2022."This discussion probably belongs in a separate OT thread. If it continues, I will split it off.
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Post by bizman on Jan 7, 2024 20:59:36 GMT
It seems pretty clear that the crime statistics are distorted esp. in the cities where people aren't arrested for "minor" property crimes and even retail employees are discouraged from doing anything to stop them. Several have been fired for trying to stop crimes in progress. And many national chains have been thinning the ranks of their stores in such areas. And activists constantly decry the growing "food deserts" in metro areas beset by crime. Curious thing that incentives seem to matter to store operators/owners.
Why report crimes when cops and prosecutors won't do anything about them?
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 7, 2024 22:27:18 GMT
There are lies, darn lies, and statistics -
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 7, 2024 22:57:14 GMT
The economy doesn't have a high correlation to what markets will do in the next 1-4-12 weeks and even longer. Bonds, and especially LT treasuries did mitigate stocks losses...until they failed miserably in 2022. TLT lost 31% and EDV lost 39%. Gold had been a bad category for many years. What has worked when stocks lose money + 2022 ? selling to MM. 2022 was clear, others were tougher. Who is the most powerful force and influence? The Fed. One sentence can move markets immediately. As usual and boring, most should stay within their AA based on their goals and do minimal trading.
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Post by anitya on Jan 7, 2024 23:26:20 GMT
"Lastly, we're missing out on the true un-fudge-able prediction for 2024 --- is it to be BIDEN? TRUMP? or (...specify your darkhorse...). I took a peek at some British oddsmakers." richardsok, are there betting odds for how the S. Ct. might rule in the cases involving Trump it has taken up?
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Post by anitya on Jan 8, 2024 0:01:43 GMT
There is a Taiwan event in a week China is very interested in. That might determine China's next move.
"General elections will be held in Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, on Saturday, 13 January 2024 to elect the 16th President and Vice President of the Republic of China, and all 113 members of the eleventh Legislative Yuan."
I think one of the least discussed event was how Warren Buffet, who presumably makes forever holding investments, bought and sold multi billion $ worth of TSM stock as if he is a day trader. This is while everyone was flocking to AI and AI enabling stocks. I think he sold at $74 (probably a 10% profit) while the stock is currently at $100, ten months after. I also noticed that he has been aggressively selling his BYD stock that he bought 10 or so years ago. BYD has become the largest EV seller in the world. He is choosing to walk away from two trending Moats. I have noticed he makes moves ahead of the consensus. To that point, I think he was one of the first to get back into Japanese stocks in 2023. (We have to see how much he will be handicapped by Charlie not being available to sound off.)
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Post by gman57 on Jan 8, 2024 1:01:26 GMT
"Lastly, we're missing out on the true un-fudge-able prediction for 2024 --- is it to be BIDEN? TRUMP? or (...specify your darkhorse...). I took a peek at some British oddsmakers." richardsok , are there betting odds for how the S. Ct. might rule in the cases involving Trump it has taken up? You asked... I think women will come out of the woodwork and no other issue matters. Maybe next election other issues will matter but not this one.... again IMHO. The mid-terms were just a taste. I could be totally wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. ADD: I think the SC will rule in Trump's favor re: being on state ballots, since he hasn't been convicted of a crime yet.
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Post by archer on Jan 8, 2024 5:01:01 GMT
I'm just thinking of conventional hedges, like gold and government debt. Look at the difference between owning 100% Wellington (blue) vs. 60% Wellington + 20% GLD + 20% PGOVX (red) since 2004. Slightly lower returns, but far tamer drawdowns during the subprime and Covid panic: (Click to enlarge.) View AttachmentYou can substitute the older precious metals fund USERX in place of GLD and get pretty much identical chart, and also go back to 2000 and catch another downturn and worst case scenario. www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=9EvOPmUncaBnxKMAKlKyV
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Post by Norbert on Jan 8, 2024 5:07:51 GMT
It seems pretty clear that the crime statistics are distorted esp. in the cities where people aren't arrested for "minor" property crimes and even retail employees are discouraged from doing anything to stop them. Several have been fired for trying to stop crimes in progress. And many national chains have been thinning the ranks of their stores in such areas. And activists constantly decry the growing "food deserts" in metro areas beset by crime. Curious thing that incentives seem to matter to store operators/owners. Why report crimes when cops and prosecutors won't do anything about them? Residing in Europe, am not the most knowledgeable about US crime. But, we spent last September in the San Francisco area. Based on conversations with locals, there's now so much crime in towns like SF, Berkeley, and Oakland that police often don't respond to calls, if a call is even made. Break-ins and shoplifting are rampant. Walking in downtown SF, we observed that over 50% of stores are boarded up; many of the rest have armed private security or keep doors locked; entry requires ringing a doorbell or an appointment. Several larger stores have closed their doors permanently. Going through passport control at SFO, the federal agent warned us that much had changed and to be careful where we walk. So, no, I don't believe the rosy statistics.
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Post by archer on Jan 8, 2024 6:16:43 GMT
Norbert , The inner bay area (west of the hills) has gotten bad in recent years. In Oakland the 2022 stats are 1 car stolen per 30 residents. I would have guessed 1 in 3000 before I red the reporting article. 4.5% of thefts lead to arrests. Some of the auto thefts are from gated apartment buildings and some at gunpoint. North Oakland (nicer area) saw an increase of over 60%. www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/oakland-car-thefts-rising-18453221.php
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Post by Norbert on Jan 8, 2024 7:31:39 GMT
archerOn our AF flight to SFO, the lady next to me told me that her elderly mom lived in the Oakland Hills and lived in fear of a home invasion, as several neighbors had been burglared. We lived in a Berkeley neighborhood by the Claremont Hotel and had strict instructions from the owner to set the alarm system at all times. During our stay we once heard shouting mid-day; a car had just been stolen. We rode BART into San Francisco once and only once. There were too many unsavory characters we didn't want to deal with. These are just anecdotes, but things seem to have gone seriously wrong. It's outside the scope of this thread to speculate why, plus the conversation would immediately turn political. I'm not completely naive; have worked in and visited African cities like Lagos, Cotonou, and Dakar. OK, Lagos is tricky; but I feel safer in Cotonou and Dakar than San Francisco.
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Post by anitya on Jan 8, 2024 13:24:25 GMT
"Lastly, we're missing out on the true un-fudge-able prediction for 2024 --- is it to be BIDEN? TRUMP? or (...specify your darkhorse...). I took a peek at some British oddsmakers." richardsok , are there betting odds for how the S. Ct. might rule in the cases involving Trump it has taken up? You asked... I think women will come out of the woodwork and no other issue matters. Maybe next election other issues will matter but not this one.... again IMHO. The mid-terms were just a taste. I could be totally wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. ADD: I think the SC will rule in Trump's favor re: being on state ballots, since he hasn't been convicted of a crime yet. I think you misunderstood my post. I was only interested in oddsmakers’ book re S. Ct. potential rulings. The entire quoted text is from Richardsok’s post and thus my request was directed to him. I am not looking for who might win the general elections and why.
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
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Post by mani on Jan 8, 2024 18:02:09 GMT
Crime rates apparently depend on the political bias of the source, as well as which data is used and how. I spent about 20 minutes trying to ascertain the facts, and the facts are as as clear as mud. One of the variables is whether crimes were reported or not. Yes this is the reality we live in. The only thing I know for certain is that people views (including my own) are largely made by the media we consume. That's also why I am here, on a forum with older people, more conservative (statistically), to help me temper my own rosy glasses exuberance. It helps temper my own biases. I am also on the other hand aware of this: When a majority of a group thinks things are bad "for other" but good for them, it might be that things are pretty decent overall! In the end I want to make the best, low risk, higher probability investment decisions. So thanks all! (and I hope this is not too political but it's very relevant to our investment decisions I believe)
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 8, 2024 19:01:33 GMT
mani , Older people generally aren’t that happy a group. You ever talk to one? You say Hi, hows it going, what’s up, what’s new etc. and you get a long dissertation about their health or weather, whining and complaining about pain and costs. It’s just a polite greeting for younger people, who of course are clueless. 🤫
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Post by archer on Jan 8, 2024 19:41:48 GMT
mani , Older people generally aren’t that happy a group. You ever talk to one? You say Hi, hows it going, what’s up, what’s new etc. and you get a long dissertation about their health or weather, whining and complaining about pain and costs. It’s just a polite greeting for younger people, who of course are clueless. 🤫 I think this has been true since time immemorial. It's best to factor in an adjustment for inherent age dissatisfaction. My own age related grumpiness is tempered by a large dose of resignation and lowered expectations. Mani has a good point though that if the majority of people think things are good for themselves, the math points to things being better overall.
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Post by gman57 on Jan 8, 2024 19:50:48 GMT
Who's is right? I was just reading an article about how eggs can be a part of a healthy diet and another about how bad they are for you. I just started laughing. I can find articles about how the crime rate is at all time lows but these crimes over here are at all time highs. I can find articles about how bad rampant smash and grab crime is along with articles about how corporations blame "shrink" (corporate term for shoplifting) for earnings misses. I can find articles about shoplifting isn't as bad as corporations say. Talk about confusing. Name a subject and you can find facts to back your view whatever it may be. Economy is good/bad, inflation is good/bad, immigration is good/bad, meat is good/bad, wine is good/bad...etc... etc... etc... About the only thing that I can't find a positive view on is smoking.
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Post by gman57 on Jan 8, 2024 19:51:27 GMT
mani , Older people generally aren’t that happy a group. You ever talk to one? You say Hi, hows it going, what’s up, what’s new etc. and you get a long dissertation about their health or weather, whining and complaining about pain and costs. It’s just a polite greeting for younger people, who of course are clueless. 🤫 I think this has been true since time immemorial. It's best to factor in an adjustment for inherent age dissatisfaction. My own age related grumpiness is tempered by a large dose of resignation and lowered expectations. Mani has a good point though that if the majority of people think things are good for themselves, the math points to things being better overall. GET OFF MY LAWN!!
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Post by Norbert on Jan 8, 2024 20:07:06 GMT
Who's is right? I was just reading an article about how eggs can be a part of a healthy diet and another about how bad they are for you. I just started laughing. I can find articles about how the crime rate is at all time lows but these crimes over here are at all time highs. I can find articles about how bad rampant smash and grab crime is along with articles about how corporations blame "shrink" (corporate term for shoplifting) for earnings misses. I can find articles about shoplifting isn't as bad as corporations say. Talk about confusing. Name a subject and you can find facts to back your view whatever it may be. Economy is good/bad, inflation is good/bad, immigration is good/bad, meat is good/bad, wine is good/bad...etc... etc... etc... About the only thing that I can't find a positive view on is smoking. Eggs are healthy. So is meat, if from grass-fed animals, not stuffed with grains, hormones, and antibiotics. Wine is fine in moderation. Legal immigration involving people anxious to accept our values and integrate into our society is good. Otherwise not. Crime is not at an all-time low. I know everything. Once I thought I was wrong, but that was a mistake. Trust me.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 8, 2024 20:59:49 GMT
mani , Older people generally aren’t that happy a group. You ever talk to one? You say Hi, hows it going, what’s up, what’s new etc. and you get a long dissertation about their health or weather, whining and complaining about pain and costs. It’s just a polite greeting for younger people, who of course are clueless. 🤫 I think this has been true since time immemorial. It's best to factor in an adjustment for inherent age dissatisfaction. My own age related grumpiness is tempered by a large dose of resignation and lowered expectations. Mani has a good point though that if the majority of people think things are good for themselves, the math points to things being better overall. I’m always thinking herd mentality. It’s safer to conform then try to change. See that poll, the majority stay with the current conditions which may turn out to be true. At the gym today I was between sets evidently looking glum (tired, sore looks the same) and someone made a comment. I said happy workouts means you’re not serious with a smile of course. 👍
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 12, 2024 22:41:16 GMT
This poll closes Sunday midnight. If you haven't voted yet....please go ahead.
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