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Post by racqueteer on Dec 30, 2023 4:14:04 GMT
Because I'm curious (and envious of some of your results this year), I'm interested in how you did for the cycle of 2022 and 2023. I think that's a better yardstick than this boom year alone. I managed to come out flat over the two-year period by avoiding large losses in 2022, but stayed defensive for too long this past year. How did the group do over this longer period?
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kent
Ensign
Posts: 43
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Post by kent on Dec 30, 2023 4:17:40 GMT
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Post by archer on Dec 30, 2023 5:13:05 GMT
I don't know exactly, but I'm within 1% of even, (about where I would be if I made about 100% less trades!). I haven't made any withdrawals from my retirement PFs yet, but am wondering how to factor them in when assessing my PF performance in the future. I don't think it is as simple as just subtracting out the amount withdrawn. Or is it?
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 30, 2023 5:28:44 GMT
Hi, kent... No, there isn't a thread for the combination of both years. The existing threads are solely about this year's result. As someone noted elsewhere, if you lost 50% in 2022, a gain of 100% this year only got you even for the pair of years together. For me, the cycle is what is truly important. The way I was set up was largely too defensive, but had things broken badly, I wasn't going to be hurt too severely. It simply didn't work out the way I'd feared and prepared for. |
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 30, 2023 5:43:27 GMT
I don't know exactly, but I'm within 1% of even, (about where I would be if I made about 100% less trades!). I haven't made any withdrawals from my retirement PFs yet, but am wondering how to factor them in when assessing my PF performance in the future. I don't think it is as simple as just subtracting out the amount withdrawn. Or is it? Sounds pretty similar. I got really small at the right time, but failed to get larger expeditiously. I have a fairly straightforward way of dealing with my financial figures: Total as of Jan1 vs. total as of Dec 31 of that year. I carry along anything removed and add that back into the totals; so I don't get any 'leakage' of assets (though that amount may not show any growth either). I'm sure a bookkeeper would cringe, but it's for my own use only; so.... |
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 30, 2023 5:52:04 GMT
After distributions the net growth of my portfolio from 2022 ending to 2023 ending was 2.6%. My five year average after distributions growth rate is in the 4% range per year. Remember I am in the distribution phase of investing. I am thinking that it will take me another two to three years to again reach my portfolio's high water mark of 2021 ending. 2023 was a heavy distribution year for me at about three times what I normally take.
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Post by saratoga on Dec 30, 2023 9:34:26 GMT
My portfolio value increased 3.9% during the last 2 years. With inflation and some net inflow to the portfolio considered, I came short of a round trip. I suffered relatively more in 2022 as I stuck with some aggressive funds (MSEGX, PRNHX) too long.
I did relatively better in 2023 with high equity allocations (especially to VGT, QQQM). I have reduced the allocations to QQQM, VGT in a partial rebalance this week.
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Post by steelpony10 on Dec 30, 2023 11:06:08 GMT
racqueteer , I believe values are out of my control (as well as the future) so I buy and hold. For 2022-2023 I ended up flat after expenses like you but by doing nothing. As primarily income investors we try to stay even by spending the cash flow dedicated for spending which rose 7-8% over two years. LTC or heirs can have the core producers. Up or down in value since I do little oversight seems like luck and how much we spend for us. VTI and 3 stocks (35%) went up like the 500 index and the rest is cash and bond like products so nothing to be gained there but a lot of spending money. Our portfolio yield is in the 6% range. I aim to spend near that 6% each year with excess or any remainder reinvested for future spending raises.
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Post by mnfish on Dec 30, 2023 13:31:12 GMT
Since Jan 1, 2022, to today my investment results are up 13.2%. I have withdrawn 4.7% of the begin balance over 2 years. So, up 8.5% after withdrawal.
Currently about 15% less in stocks than begin 2022 and now 35% in cash/cash alternatives.
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 30, 2023 14:42:16 GMT
Since Jan 1, 2022, to today my investment results are up 13.2%. I have withdrawn 4.7% of the begin balance over 2 years. So, up 8.5% after withdrawal. Currently about 15% less in stocks than begin 2022 and now 35% in cash/cash alternatives. That's a nice result for the two years, I suspect; congrats! |
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2023 14:48:50 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions.
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 30, 2023 15:28:25 GMT
Because I'm curious (and envious of some of your results this year), I'm interested in how you did for the cycle of 2022 and 2023. I think that's a better yardstick than this boom year alone. I managed to come out flat over the two-year period by avoiding large losses in 2022, but stayed defensive for too long this past year. How did the group do over this longer period? I am definitely in a net loss position over the two years. Fortunately my losses are in taxable accounts and I continue to harvest them for future years. As for tax advantaged accounts, I am reasonably fine. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 30, 2023 15:53:16 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions. I submit that our rich uncleharley should be disallowed in all posts regarding profit/loss posting henceforth. Kidding! Congrats, Maestro. You post your moves in real-time and post your losses when they occur. Respect! Happy New Year! |
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 30, 2023 16:11:36 GMT
Up 6% for 2022 and 2023. 18% stocks. Didn't really do anything this year or last except for a TLH from a bond fund and a capital gains harvest from VWILX In'tl growth.
Reinvestments into bond funds and stocks funds helped out.
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 30, 2023 16:14:17 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions. I submit that our rich uncleharley should be disallowed in all future posts regarding profit/loss posting henceforth. Kidding! Congrats, Maestro. You post your moves in real-time and post your losses when they occur. Respect! Happy New Year! Heh... Yeah, that kind of performance is definitely extreme tail end data!  My congrats as well, uncleharley! |
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Post by richardsok on Dec 30, 2023 16:25:35 GMT
I submit that our rich uncleharley should be disallowed in all future posts regarding profit/loss posting henceforth. Kidding! Congrats, Maestro. You post your moves in real-time and post your losses when they occur. Respect! Happy New Year! Heh... Yeah, that kind of performance is definitely extreme tail end data! My congrats as well, uncleharley ! Beat me -- by a bunch. Bravo. |
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sam
Lieutenant
Posts: 123
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Post by sam on Dec 30, 2023 18:03:42 GMT
I guess good question should be performance of 4 years from Beginning of 2020 till 2023.
By the end of 2019, Yield Curve was inverted and leading economic indicators were negative. One can argue we were at the cusp of a recession but COVID pushed it very fast.
Reason is the way psychology of loss works. Many people sell at bottom or catch a falling knife and then either don't come back to market or come late and chase hot investments. That's what happened in 2022.
Anyway I did have positive returns in all those years. I think overall positive return year by year will get you ahead of herd than chasing market.
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sam
Lieutenant
Posts: 123
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Post by sam on Dec 30, 2023 19:05:26 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions.
Congrats on your good returns and astute money management skills.
If you don't mind sharing your portfolio SD, Beta, Alpha and Sharp ratios lets say in comparison to SPY. Fidelity let change your comparison Index like 70/30 or common stocks 100 % etc. I am sure your Alpha and Sharp ratio numbers going to high because return is so good. Just curious if your higher returns comes at cost of higher SD and Beta?
I have higher SD and so far I have not been able to be lower it. Most of time portfolio return and risk go hand in hand. One just has to look at high Beta funds how spectrally they fall once market move south. Perhaps if you don't sharing your wisdom.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2023 19:54:22 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions.
Congrats on your good returns and astute money management skills.
If you don't mind sharing your portfolio SD, Beta, Alpha and Sharp ratios lets say in comparison to SPY. Fidelity let change your comparison Index like 70/30 or common stocks 100 % etc. I am sure your Alpha and Sharp ratio numbers going to high because return is so good. Just curious if your higher returns comes at cost of higher SD and Beta?
I have higher SD and so far I have not been able to be lower it. Most of time portfolio return and risk go hand in hand. One just has to look at high Beta funds how spectrally they fall once market move south. Perhaps if you don't sharing your wisdom.
I will be happy to if you will direct me to were I can easily get that data. Please do not send me to M*. I unsubscribed to them more than a decade ago. Fwiw, I do not pay any attention to most academic risk measurements, simply because I am convinced the greatest risk in a trade is the person doing the trade. Consequently I focus on myself, rather than the object I am trading. |
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Post by archer on Dec 30, 2023 20:34:38 GMT
uncleharley, IIRC you've mentioned your accounts being in Fidelity? For your Fidelity metrics if you go to your "performance" page you can access a chart that shows your SD. Then click on "more details" and it will show sharpe for the periods and accounts chosen.
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Post by liftlock on Dec 30, 2023 20:35:07 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions. Outstanding by any measure. Congratulations! |
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 30, 2023 20:53:45 GMT
I am sure your Alpha and Sharp ratio numbers going to high because return is so good. Just curious if your higher returns comes at cost of higher SD and Beta?
I have higher SD and so far I have not been able to be lower it. Most of time portfolio return and risk go hand in hand. One just has to look at high Beta funds how spectrally they fall once market move south. Perhaps if you don't sharing your wisdom.
It seems to me that an ideal trading vehicle would have to be high in all of these areas? The greater the possible variation from the mean/average, assuming you bet correctly, the greater should be your return; no? And since a trader's exposure time is limited in scope, the 'risk' is localized to that period of time; i.e., the numbers for the previous year are more or less irrelevant over the course of a month. I'm not an economist, so I can't say that I have any kind of deep understanding here; perhaps someone else could expand on these ideas somewhere?
Might make for an interesting diversion. I know I don't have a real 'feel' for the definitions.
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sam
Lieutenant
Posts: 123
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Post by sam on Dec 30, 2023 21:26:37 GMT
After adding back the $$$ I withdrew from my accounts, my records at Fidelity indicate that my total returns for the past 2 yrs are 68%. I attribute most of that amount to the use of leverage, market timing skills, and compounded monthly distributions.
Congrats on your good returns and astute money management skills.
If you don't mind sharing your portfolio SD, Beta, Alpha and Sharp ratios lets say in comparison to SPY. Fidelity let change your comparison Index like 70/30 or common stocks 100 % etc. I am sure your Alpha and Sharp ratio numbers going to high because return is so good. Just curious if your higher returns comes at cost of higher SD and Beta?
I have higher SD and so far I have not been able to be lower it. Most of time portfolio return and risk go hand in hand. One just has to look at high Beta funds how spectrally they fall once market move south. Perhaps if you don't sharing your wisdom.
Lets say you are using Fidelity platform. You can use either Fidelity.com or Active Trader Pro, either way it will direct you at the same place.
When you log in Fidelity website, you can choose all accounts or any account (IRA or Taxable etc) you need look under ACCOUNT: Summary, Positions, Balance Planning and MORE. Click on MORE and drop down menu choose performance.
Once you are in Performance Page
Top Quarter is Balance and performance Activity (not this one)
Second is Personal Returns (not this one either) Here you can choose time and Modify Index below Market Indexes. I would suggest you Modify Market Indexes as what you want like Dow, SP500, Nasdaq or 100 stocks (I am assuming Fidelity is using common stock from NYSE as reference) or Blend like 90/10 or 80/20 and so on). Once you modify here it will show up here and next segment.
3rd Segment is Risk/Return (You have reached your Destination!)
Top Half is Graph and clink on Details below Graph. Within details DEFAULT comparison is to SP 500 but if you click on SP 500 you change it whatever you want within drop down menu. Here you will see, Alpha, Beta, SD, Sharp ratio. Fidelity give you option of 3 or 5 years.
Remember I mentioned Modify Indexes in Second segment. Now all of these Indexes will appear here as well. So you can see during same time how well the Indexes or Portfolio of lets say 70/30 etc performed in terms of RISK/Return?
If you are using Active Trader Pro (ATP), you need to go to Fidelity.com within ATP. Top right of ATP Green Banner, Setting, Help, Legal and Fidelity.com. Click on Fidelity.com, new web browser of Fidelity.com will appear (this is truncated version of full browser and no new log in will be required). This is modified version of Fidelity.com for a quick look of your account within Fidelity as Not all features are found within ATP. Any way layout of this Fidelity.com is same as above. You will find Returns and Risk measures at the same place.
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Post by anitya on Dec 30, 2023 21:45:32 GMT
I have never gotten much out of discussions about amount of risk (SD or otherwise). To me, Risk (like Religion) is very personal and differs widely from person to person in how they perceive / experience it.
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Post by anitya on Dec 30, 2023 21:50:12 GMT
“[T]he greatest risk in a trade is the person doing the trade.“ - Uncle Harley That should be a pinned banner in every investment forum and I would like to see this here if chang too thinks so. |
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2023 21:51:04 GMT
Congrats on your good returns and astute money management skills.
If you don't mind sharing your portfolio SD, Beta, Alpha and Sharp ratios lets say in comparison to SPY. Fidelity let change your comparison Index like 70/30 or common stocks 100 % etc. I am sure your Alpha and Sharp ratio numbers going to high because return is so good. Just curious if your higher returns comes at cost of higher SD and Beta?
I have higher SD and so far I have not been able to be lower it. Most of time portfolio return and risk go hand in hand. One just has to look at high Beta funds how spectrally they fall once market move south. Perhaps if you don't sharing your wisdom.
Lets say you are using Fidelity platform. You can use either Fidelity.com or Active Trader Pro, either way it will direct you at the same place.
When you log in Fidelity website, you can choose all accounts or any account (IRA or Taxable etc) you need look under ACCOUNT: Summary, Positions, Balance Planning and MORE. Click on MORE and drop down menu choose performance.
Once you are in Performance Page
Top Quarter is Balance and performance Activity (not this one)
Second is Personal Returns (not this one either) Here you can choose time and Modify Index below Market Indexes. I would suggest you Modify Market Indexes as what you want like Dow, SP500, Nasdaq or 100 stocks (I am assuming Fidelity is using common stock from NYSE as reference) or Blend like 90/10 or 80/20 and so on). Once you modify here it will show up here and next segment.
3rd Segment is Risk/Return (You have reached your Destination!)
Top Half is Graph and clink on Details below Graph. Within details DEFAULT comparison is to SP 500 but if you click on SP 500 you change it whatever you want within drop down menu. Here you will see, Alpha, Beta, SD, Sharp ratio. Fidelity give you option of 3 or 5 years.
Remember I mentioned Modify Indexes in Second segment. Now all of these Indexes will appear here as well. So you can see during same time how well the Indexes or Portfolio of lets say 70/30 etc performed in terms of RISK/Return?
If you are using Active Trader Pro (ATP), you need to go to Fidelity.com within ATP. Top right of ATP Green Banner, Setting, Help, Legal and Fidelity.com. Click on Fidelity.com, new web browser of Fidelity.com will appear (this is truncated version of full browser and no new log in will be required). This is modified version of Fidelity.com for a quick look of your account within Fidelity as Not all features are found within ATP. Any way layout of this Fidelity.com is same as above. You will find Returns and Risk measures at the same place.
Found it. Fidelity will only do this exercise over a 3 or 5 yr period of time. I changed my tactics about 25 months ago so we might want to wait a year before we do any kind of a comparison. What is it that you are looking for? |
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Post by richardsok on Dec 30, 2023 22:06:35 GMT
“[T]he greatest risk in a trade is the person doing the trade.“ That should be a pinned banner in every investment forum and I would like to see this here if chang too thinks so. Another one I recently came across: "People are trying to be too theoretical. Acceptance of chaos is a more correct way to approach the market." |
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sam
Lieutenant
Posts: 123
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Post by sam on Dec 31, 2023 0:34:06 GMT
Thanks for getting back. That's ok if you do not want to post details of your results.
I was bit curious good performance came with good securities selection or good risk management or both.
Lets say you only invested in SPY (100%) but you got of Market in Feb completely but got back in April and again got out by Aug and back in Nov. Not only you out performed SPY but your Standard deviation will also be lower. Correlation (R2) and Beta will be lower tool
On the other hand. Let say you traded Options esp. Credit spread your correlation will automatically be lower but SD and Beta and Alpha will depend upon how $$ value of your portfolio has done.
3rd example. If you owned lets say 50% Semi conductor or high growth stocks and 50% cash. You most likely have out performed SPY but your SD most likely be high as these stocks move widely up or down.
I did have good return in last 2 years (not any where near to you) but my SD is very high as I still leaning how to manage risk and get out of losing position before too long.
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sgra
Lieutenant
Posts: 58
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Post by sgra on Dec 31, 2023 1:31:43 GMT
I retired in 2014 and my pension (and later, smaller SS) cover about 70% of outflow (ex capex). Portfolio covers the rest. The way racq framed the question coincidentally aligns with the way I track my investments. I compare performance to my personal high water mark, which dates to 1/3/2022. As of EOY 2023, I am 1.5% below that mark. This is largely due to market drop in 2022 and my TLH in 2023 without fully replacing what I sold. It's easy to get lulled by the siren song of 5%+ cash. Overall, I consider this a win as it's close to where the market is despite my current smallest-ever 30% equity stake.
Along the way, I have learned (or re-learned) a few things about myself: - I much prefer a compact portfolio
- Asset allocation boils down to stocks, bonds cash (yeah, duh)
- Not losing or losing way less is paramount to my psyche
- I really like lots of cash...just sitting there is ok
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Post by anitya on Dec 31, 2023 5:24:06 GMT
sam, Not sure when you joined the forum but we all saw in real time all of uncleharley trades. I was expecting his total returns to be much higher than the 68% over two years because he made many successful trades with triple leveraged ETFs (e.g., TQQQ).
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My congrats as well, 
