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Post by archer on Dec 31, 2023 6:06:30 GMT
uncleharley , I'm hoping sometime if you're able, you might post how you combine your package of technical indicators to make your calls. I have found using the same indicator for buys and sells, to not be very useful. Also, I have not had the best of luck using additional indicators for confirmation. To do so just seems to default to the slower indicator. You obviously have a good system, making 68% and, also making some of those gains in 2022. I understand if your system isn't made of hard and fast rules, it might not be possible to outline it clearly. I really appreciate the bits and pieces you often share, as my calls are improving over time.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 31, 2023 13:28:31 GMT
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 31, 2023 14:07:40 GMT
Motivated by the response here, I looked at what might be considered to be buy and hold investments. I personally like a 60-40 hybrid model as a baseline, and allow my own allocation to actively float. I note that most allocation funds have not gone positive over this two-year period. PRWCX has; VBINX, VWELX and FBALX have not. QQQ, VFINX, and VOO have. On the basis of that, I would say that most of the respondents here are probably beating my personal baseline; with a couple (and one in particular), beating it handily - yea us!
I also echo the recent posts requesting some elaboration on uncleharley 's total domination during this period; should he elect to share with the class (I'd suggest a separate thread for such an important topic). I'd love to emulate the "old dog" in this saga!
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 31, 2023 15:10:54 GMT
I am working on a new thread explaining my financial position with a little bit about how I got here and the techniques I am currently using. I will call the thread "New Tricks for Old Dogs". It will take a while to write it, so be patient.
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
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Post by mani on Dec 31, 2023 15:57:52 GMT
My "big" money went -17.7% then +20%. Boring (that would be -1.2% over 2 years) Other retirement accounts went respectively -18.5% / +30.3% (nice!) for the second biggest, and -5.8% / +50.6% (wow!) for the third one. My play money (0.2% of total ) went +10.2% / +81%. Funny what you can do when you don't care about losing it all!!
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Post by catdog on Dec 31, 2023 16:35:12 GMT
I lost 5% over the two year period. I went 100% cash on Nov 9, 2022. Shame on me. Have only made a few short term trades since then. I don't take distributions yet. At almost 70 I am looking forward to making my way back to at least 40% equities.
catdog
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Post by mozart522 on Dec 31, 2023 21:12:23 GMT
Because I'm curious (and envious of some of your results this year), I'm interested in how you did for the cycle of 2022 and 2023. I think that's a better yardstick than this boom year alone. I managed to come out flat over the two-year period by avoiding large losses in 2022, but stayed defensive for too long this past year. How did the group do over this longer period? Interestingly, I'm about $100 over where I was on December 31 2021. That does not account for the 4% I withdrew for expenses (2%/year) over that time which is my normal withdrawal. I too cut my losses in 2022, and stayed mostly in MM this year until the end. I was sure the inverted yield curve would lead to recession, but when it comes to my retirement money "better safe than sorry" is my mantra.
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Post by mozart522 on Dec 31, 2023 21:25:37 GMT
“[T]he greatest risk in a trade is the person doing the trade.“ That should be a pinned banner in every investment forum and I would like to see this here if chang too thinks so. Another one I recently came across: "People are trying to be too theoretical. Acceptance of chaos is a more correct way to approach the market."Still another: "Good investing is not about understanding the numbers; it’s about understanding human behavior."
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Post by Mustang on Jan 1, 2024 1:54:28 GMT
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Post by fishingrod on Jan 1, 2024 8:21:26 GMT
racqueteer , "I note that most allocation funds have not gone positive over this two-year period. PRWCX has; VBINX, VWELX and FBALX have not. QQQ and VFINX have. VOO is about even." Please recheck. With dividends (i.e. total returns) I see VOO has done better (not worse) than VFINX. This reply is not relevant to the essence of this thread or your post but just an FYI. Hmm.. Was using StockCharts, not sure now what I was looking at. I'll correct then delete this. Thank you! VFINX is the same as VOO.
Just a friendly reminder. VFINX is the old SP500 index mutual fund(investors class) that is now not being used. VFIAX is now its' replacement. VFINX can still be used for backtesting as it has the farthest back history that is still being supported. VOO mirrors VFINX and VFIAX now, except for the very small difference in ER, as it is just another share class.
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 1, 2024 13:21:51 GMT
After distributions the net growth of my portfolio from 2022 ending to 2023 ending was 2.6%. My five year average after distributions growth rate is in the 4% range per year. Remember I am in the distribution phase of investing. I am thinking that it will take me another two to three years to again reach my portfolio's high water mark of 2021 ending. 2023 was a heavy distribution year for me at about three times what I normally take. My total return for 2023 computes to 12.02%.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 1, 2024 16:33:49 GMT
From 1/2/22 to 12/29/23 I am up about 5%, not taking into account cash in/out. My under performer was SCHD and my surprise performwer was SC, DGRS. I am not currently taking RMDs and therefore not using any distributions other than saved cash and MM distributions to supplement SS. 2023 TR was above the 5-year and 10-year TR per M* Portfolio Manager, which I think is a good benchmark.
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Post by win1177 on Jan 1, 2024 17:11:48 GMT
First to everyone: HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Reviewed all of my wife’s and I accounts at Vanguard a short time ago. Overall portfolio performance was 13.2% for calendar year 2023. My wife’s performance was better than mine, as she insisted on me buying her some AMZN, more GOOGL, and keeping her rather large position in AAPL, instead of trimming it a bit. Ultimately, this added to her two “non- retirement accounts” outperformance greatly, as they did quite well. My account “stumbled” through the year, making only 7% for the calendar year, mainly due to my more conservative stance.
Our retirement accounts (much smaller as we saved and invested VERY aggressively during my working years), made a return of 10.2% for the year. Our retirement accounts also have heavier weightings in bonds, which held them back a little, compared to our “non- retirement“ accounts, which only have about 4-5% in bonds.
Win
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 1, 2024 18:06:21 GMT
And 2022, Win? Or better, the combination of the two?
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Post by roi2020 on Jan 1, 2024 19:05:54 GMT
Happy New Year to all!
My portfolio value increased 7.75% from 01/05/2022 through 12/31/2023. The value declined 8.18% in 2022 and increased 15.94% in 2023. Portfolio values incorporate 2022 & 2023 401K, Roth IRA, and HSA contributions. The portfolio was comprised of ~70% stocks and ~30% bonds/cash at the start of 2022. Accounts below are listed in order of descending value.
Personal Rates of Return for 2023 401K: 15.15% (1 yr as of 12/29) Primary Taxable: 10.8% Roth IRA: 15.9% Rollover IRA: Not available Secondary Taxable: -1.12% HSA: Not available
Personal Rates of Return for 2022 401K: -8.02% Primary Taxable: -8.5% Roth IRA: -17.1% Secondary Taxable: -13.11% HSA: Not available
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Post by yakers on Jan 2, 2024 3:59:36 GMT
To get a really precise breakdown I would have to gather Vanguard accounts, Wells Fargo accounts, Federal TSP and figure it all out, its 8.8% in the TSP, 14 something at VG, various amounts at WF, but the number that really matters is the portfolio is up 4.4% and I'm happy. 2023 was big tavel, 3 weeks in Portugal & Spain, a coupe weeks in NY and a very expensive trip to Norway (hired a private guide for a heritage tour) bought a new car and gave younger son some $ to get a decent replacement car after an accident. I'm happy, really happy, for the numbers that mean the most to me.
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Post by Capital on Jan 2, 2024 10:27:18 GMT
I'm in the same boat as yakers . It would be a monumental task to compute a two year return due to contributions and withdrawals. My balances at Fidelity now are 14% higher than two years ago. That's really what matters to me.
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Post by win1177 on Jan 2, 2024 13:56:20 GMT
And 2022, Win? Or better, the combination of the two? I have no easy way to compute “combined” performance for 2022 (and thus two year), as Vanguard only provides 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, and 10 year combined performance. For my main taxable account, I lost -5.72% for 2022, wife’s taxable lost -3.37% for 2022, and her Trust lost -15.73% for 2022. Her Trust is a combined account she inherited from her parents/ grandparents, and it has several “high fliers” such as AAPL, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, QCOM, etc. that were hit hard in 2022. Many came roaring back in 2023 though, with the Trusts return for 2023 being 19.29%! The Trust is the largest account, followed closely by my individual account, then my wife’s account. The combination of all our retirement accounts is about 15% of our total assets, and most of it is in Roth accounts. These regular accounts do not include retirement accounts. I also have a Roth IRA, regular IRA, and wife has just a Roth IRA. Good news is we have WAY more than I ever dreamed I would ever have, so we are very secure in our situation now, and our biggest “worry” is going to be “estate planning”, especially with one child with significant disabilities (CP and moderate ID), and a second with addiction issues. But, we are meeting with an estate attorney and CPAs to plan that stuff. Win
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Post by howaya on Jan 2, 2024 14:16:34 GMT
win1177 You can get a total two year return on Vanguard by using the customize feature under "Performance". It wasn't very intuitive for me at first but, IIRC, by setting the first calendar page to 1 - 1 - 2022 it should work. You will need to click on the day of the month numeral once you adjust the calendar page to January 2022 in order to set your start date.
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Post by acksurf on Jan 2, 2024 14:30:44 GMT
Too complicated to make that assessment: closed Vanguard account moved to Fidelity, replaced SEP with Self Employed 401K, mixed taxable account with short term and retirement investments, etc. But suspect I am still down a bit from January 2022 from return perspective. Accounts are all up due to significant savings over the last 2 years - for example I can put up to $73,500 into Self Employed 401K each year.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 5, 2024 4:49:50 GMT
Because I'm curious (and envious of some of your results this year), I'm interested in how you did for the cycle of 2022 and 2023. I think that's a better yardstick than this boom year alone. I managed to come out flat over the two-year period by avoiding large losses in 2022, but stayed defensive for too long this past year. How did the group do over this longer period? I agree. I made 9.7% in 2022 and 13.7% in 2023. 97+% of our portfolio performance was in bond OEFs. All trades were based on the big picture + T/A using 2-3 funds and a big % in each. Below is a direct copy of one Rollover IRA from Schwab using a snipping tool. It is our biggest account. Attachments:
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Post by habsui on Jan 5, 2024 5:25:40 GMT
PV is up about 16% over 2022-2023 after spending.
This was achieved via my double secret swiss cheese method (lots of holes but very tasty).
Cheers..
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