|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 17, 2021 23:11:51 GMT
Today was options expiry day, a high volume day that tends to reinforce week's trend. Also it may be a more realistic reaction to the FOMC than the bullish celebration on Wednesday when, strangely, the rates fell and utilities rallied because the Fed will accelerate QE-taper and will raise rates sooner.
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 17, 2021 23:48:13 GMT
I see more pain ahead.. as Morgan Stanley said.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Dec 17, 2021 23:55:40 GMT
|
|
|
Post by chang on Dec 18, 2021 0:58:05 GMT
I see more pain ahead.. as Morgan Stanley said. If Santa doesn’t come and January is weak, I will be worried and move to a very defensive posture.
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Dec 18, 2021 1:38:38 GMT
I realize that there are many people who consider that a great year (20%+) will probably not be followed by another positive year. However, statistically there is little merit to such thinking. Here is a study from Mark Hulbert that explains it. Basically, the odds of next year being positive is about 66%. What happened last year doesn't really factor in very much. The only situation which changes the odds very much is if the market fell by 20%. In that situation, the odds of next year being up is about 80%. www.marketwatch.com/story/odds-of-being-a-stock-market-winner-in-2022-are-in-your-favor-for-this-one-big-reason-11639453074
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Dec 18, 2021 4:02:53 GMT
I can’t remember the year but it was very much like this year end. We were expecting Santa Claus and got the grinch. chang : "If Santa doesn’t come and January is weak, I will be worried and move to a very defensive posture." From a Wikipedia Article on Santa Claus Rally: “ The Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed better in years following holiday seasons in which the Santa Claus rally does not materialize.”
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 18, 2021 5:36:10 GMT
May be we can discuss the Proposed rule changes to money market funds: www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/ic-34441-fact-sheet.pdf. Link copied from Old Skeet’s post. Just thinking out loud - 1. Requiring more liquidity likely will decrease returns / yields. 2. Good change to prevent front running and causing the problems gates and fees are meant to prevent 3. Would not Swing pricing cause what 2 is trying to prevent 4. The fact that SEC thought this was necessary, that is, negative yields are a possibility, made me ask myself if we are not better than those countries with negative yields. Funds already waive fees if fees is the reason for negative yields.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Dec 18, 2021 10:50:18 GMT
The reason the I posted the piece on MMK funds is that a lot of retail investors (like myself) have a good deal on money invested in them since other cash investments are paying very little. The SEC fact sheet notes what is proposed and has yet to be passed. If you want to submit a comment to the SEC, you can do so through this link. www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml (look for Money Market Reforms and its submit comments link)
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Dec 18, 2021 12:47:33 GMT
Dang Skeet, You're making a bear out of me. Not only does your SPY short volume show me that the short volume has increased faster than long volume over the past month, the zerohedge article implies that the largest difference between the pros is the degree of bearishness. Unfortunately this appears to agree with my dailey chart for the S&P 500. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p28921526697&a=412512122&listNum=86 I show a rounded top that could become a bearish H&S pattern within 2 to 3 months. I will have no projections until the pattern has completed, however that is the direction the S&P is going in. I also read somewhere that while money supply may be the primary driver for inflation, climate change or global warming is becoming a more important factor because of it's impact on agriculture. Unfortunately the fed does not track global warming. DBA is an ETF which invests in Ag Commodities. There probably are others. Hi uncleharley, It amazing how the outlook for stocks have now gone negative. What concerns me is the breadth reading for the S&P 500 Index as only about half of the stocks are now above their 200 day moving average ... and, this trend now seems to be in a decline mode. The question for me is where will the breadth reading fund bottom and begin an upward trend. Then for sure, the rally is on and not just a throw back rally as we have been seeing of late. SPY Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625Take care ... and, I always enjoy reading your comments to my post. Cordially, Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 18, 2021 13:05:11 GMT
The weekly chart for market breadth eliminates a lot of the noise that is present on the daily chart. The weekly chart indicates that Market Breadth is consolidating, not necessarily declining. Actually the chart for the S&P price & volume is also consolidating. The deffinate bearish signal will come when that potential H&S pattern has completed and we have a bearish breakout from the pattern. However, for me to continue calling the current pattern a consolidation, the price has to go up for a couple of days soon. If that does not make sence, say so and I will have some more coffee before my next post.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Dec 18, 2021 13:23:17 GMT
The weekly chart for market breadth eliminates a lot of the noise that is present on the daily chart. The weekly chart indicates that Market Breadth is consolidating, not necessarily declining. Actually the chart for the S&P price & volume is also consolidating. The deffinate bearish signal will come when that potential H&S pattern has completed and we have a bearish breakout from the pattern. However, for me to continue calling the current pattern a consolidation, the price has to go up for a couple of days soon. If that does not make sence, say so and I will have some more coffee before my next post. uncleharley , Hi again. I am not the best chart reader and I value your comments. Keep drinking the coffee and making comment. It is appreciated. Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 18, 2021 13:58:05 GMT
The Sun's up and the coffee tastes great. My view of the current, daily price & volume chart for the S&P 500 is that if the price remains above 4500 but does not set new highs, we are in a consolidation pattern that can go on indeffinately. If the price drops below 4500, it is in a bearish trend. If the price drps to the 4300/4400 range and builds a right shoulder to the H&S pattern and heads down from there, we are in a bear market that might find support around 3900 or lower. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p28921526697&a=412512122&listNum=86A new closing high on strong trading volume would be considered bullish.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 18, 2021 14:25:13 GMT
anitya, oldskeet, the proposed rules for m-mkt funds will affect mostly the prime and muni m-mkt funds. Remember that these may have gates and/or redemption fees, and institutional versions may also have floating NAVs. With the experience since 2016, it has been found that these measures were not effective. Although not triggered, these restrictions caused worries and lot of money has already moved out of these types of funds. The idea is to revive this market. The government m-mkt funds won't be affected. These don't have any of the above restrictions. Many fund families now offer only government m-mkt funds.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Dec 18, 2021 16:11:37 GMT
Near as I can tell MM funds are worthless now. Better to keep them in the sweep account since they pay about the same, especially the small amount I have.
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Dec 18, 2021 17:01:54 GMT
talk about pain....
I'm a long time owner of Berkshire Hathaway. For years now, on another message board I've read about all the angst that fellow share holders have gone thru. I wasn't an A member, but owned enough that it mattered. Also, had enough long term gains, that I wasn't about to sell.
BRK has done okay, but not much in comparison to the S&P for the past decade while growth has gone bonkers. Anyhow, lately the talk among A members has focused on the over valued S&P 500. Which is very ironic since Buffett announced years ago, that the index was all you really needed to know. I've owned a lot of the index too for many years since it was in my 401K plan. Now that I've retired and free to chose, thought to switch over some of it a few months ago to VONG. Thinking now that was a mistakes and in consideration of numerous factor decided to instead sell some VONG and buy more shares in BRK.
Buffett has been the subject of much criticism recently for sitting on so much cash. But the organization announced a while back that they were buying back shares since they didn't know what else to do.
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Dec 18, 2021 17:35:11 GMT
ohh; BRK buyback will probably cease at about P/B 1.43. Currently trading at about P/B of 1.39
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Dec 24, 2021 16:20:14 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending December 24, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished up as Santa arrives. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +0.15%. the S&P 500 Stock Index rose +1.22%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +3.12%, while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was up +4.14%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were XLY (Consumer Discretionary) +3.47%, XLK (Technology) +2.56% and XLC (Communication Services) +1.97%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.24% and is up year to date +27.48%; and, it is off its 52 week high by -0.62%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.81% and for the week lost -0.24%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.75% and is off its 52 week high by -3.42%. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were GSP (Commodities) +2.69%, IEV (Europe) +1.72% and VTI (US Total Stock Market) +1.71%. Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were CWB (Convertibles) +2.67%, PFF (Preferreds) +0.62% and HYG (Corporate High Yield) +0.52%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXA (Austialian Dollar) +0.94%, FXB (British Pound) +0.68% and FXF (Swiss Franc) +0.12%. Old_Skeet's Soap Box ... Since I take all my mutual fund distributions in cash this has now increased the size of my cash area from about 20% to 25% due to strong year end mutual fund distributions received thus far in December. When January arrives I will review my portfolio's asset allocation mix and decide where to invest this recently received cash ... if anywhere. For now ... though ... I sit and I watch. This is mostly due to extended stock and bond market valuations and the current investment climate. One of the hardest things for me to do as a retail investor has been to just (plain old) sit and do nothing. But, I have learned, through the years, that sometimes this turns out to be one of the best things to do. My top producers (this quarter) have come from the growth & income area of my portfolio. Most likely when I start to buy it will be in the G&I area as it holds the value and the equity income parts of my portfolio. However, for now, Old_Skeet is thinking that a stock market swoon is on the horizon. I'm also thinking that a good ten percenter might not be far off. Perhaps so ... Perhaps not. But, when the swoon does come (and in time it will) I will have some extra cash to spend with a buying plan in place. Again ... for now ... I sit, remaining invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) while I ponder what to do with recently received cash (if anything) which now has me cash heavy by about 5% from my neutral weighting of 20%.. An option ... Short term, I could target cash at 25% and do nothing. Of Investment Interest Due to most investment and news sites now requiring sign in passage to read their articles and with it getting harder to find good content that can be linked without sign in requirements the Articles of Investment Interest Area is no more. I am pondering some ideas; but, as I write I have not yet decided what the content will be. This space may become a floating feature area with something of good investment interest posted each week. For Starters ... This week feature keys on Consuelo Mack's Wealth Track Site Great Value Investor Bill Miller Discusses His Core Holdings Winners And Recent Promising Additions (Part 1) wealthtrack.com/Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) SPY Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYSPY Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625SPY Yield Chart ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591SPY Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280SPY T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) AGG Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Yield Chart ... ycharts.com/companies/AGG/dividend_yieldAGG Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535AGG T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionWishing You a Christmas Season Filled with Warm Moments and Cherished Memories. Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 25, 2021 13:57:27 GMT
There is not a lot that I can add to your weekly summary. I find myself in a similar position as you in that I can't find something I really want to invest in. My favorite go-to fund for excess dividends yields about 6.5% at it's current price. That is O K, but not exciting to me. Perhaps I should not be looking for yield and just speculate on capital gains. Precious metals and Ag commodities could move up if trading volume returns after the holidays.
|
|
|
Post by Capital on Dec 25, 2021 15:21:20 GMT
There is not a lot that I can add to your weekly summary. I find myself in a similar position as you in that I can't find something I really want to invest in. My favorite go-to fund for excess dividends yields about 6.5% at it's current price. That is O K, but not exciting to me. Perhaps I should not be looking for yield and just speculate on capital gains. Precious metals and Ag commodities could move up if trading volume returns after the holidays. I have quite a pile of cash from my 12/2021 distributions/dividends. I too have no idea where I want that to go.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Jan 1, 2022 9:52:57 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending December 31, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished mixed as the New Year arrives. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +1.09%. the S&P 500 Stock Index rose +0.85, the Nasdaq Composite fell -0.05%, while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was up +0.17%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were XLRE (Real Estate) +3.79%, XLU (Utilities) +2.67%, and XLB (Materials) +2.60% . The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.20% and was up for the year +28.59%; and, it is off its 52 week high by -0.84%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.77% and for the week gained +0.09%. For the year AGG had a negative total returned of -1.67% and is off its 52 week high by -3.52%. Global Equity Compass: For the week the three best performers in my global equity compass were IEV (Europe) +1.19% and VT (World Stocks) +0.77%, and VTI (US Total Stock Market) +0.72%. For the year the three best performers were GSP (Global Commodities) +50.83%, VTI (US Total Stock Market) +25.72%, and VT (World Stock) +18.24% Income Compass: For the week the three best performers in my fixed income compass were PFF (Preferreds) +0.82%, LQD (Investment Grade) +0.29% and HYG (Corporate High Yield) +0.25%. For the year the three best performers were PFF (Preferreds) +7.09%, HYD (H. Y. Muni's) +4.99%, and HYG (High Yield Corp.) +4.12% Currency Compass: For the week the three best performers in my currency compass were FXC (Candian Dollar) +1.33%, FXB (British Pound) +0.74%, and FXF (Swiss Franc) +0.63%. For the year the three best performers were UUP (US Dollar) +6.04%, FXC (Candian Dollar) +0.53%, and FXB (British Pound) -1.12% Old_Skeet's SWAG ... Stocks have had a strong run since December 20th. During December I had a cash build due to heavy mutual fund year end cash distributions (mostly from stock funds). Currently, within my asset allocation I am cash heavy (+5%), a little light in bonds (-2%), and light in stocks (-3%). For stocks, I am currently awaiting a stock market pullback before adding to my equity allocation. For bonds, I am a little light due to anticipated rising interest rates to fight inflation. This puts Old_Skeet at about 25% cash, 38% bonds and 37% stocks. My neutral asset allocation weighting is 20/40/40. For now, I sit going into 2022. About 65% of Old_Skeet's money is held in taxabe accounts with about 35% being held in a self directed ira plus a health savings account. I will be taking my 2022 RMD during the first part of January. In addition, I have made my 2022 target buy list; but, I can buy anywhere opportunity presents itself. Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links STOCK PROXY / S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) SPY Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYSPY Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625SPY Yield Chart ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591SPY Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280SPY T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBOND PROXY / Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) AGG Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Yield Chart ... ycharts.com/companies/AGG/dividend_yieldAGG Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535AGG T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionFEAR & GREED INDEX ... money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/Wishing All a Happy New Year ... And, May the Coming Year be Full of Grand Adventure and Opportunity! Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by racqueteer on Jan 1, 2022 10:43:14 GMT
Please let me be the first this year to thank you for taking the time to put these together and post them; your efforts are not unappreciated. Happy New Year!
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 1, 2022 12:12:47 GMT
oldskeet, it was an UP week, not mixed - check your Nasdaq Comp data. FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA +1.24%, SP500 +1.12%, Nasdaq Comp +0.56%, R2000 +0.32%. DJ Transports +2.26%; DJ Utilities +0.60%. (Rotating spot energy XLE +0.84%) US$ index (spot) -0.04%, oil/WTI futures +4.34%, gold futures +0.08%.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Jan 1, 2022 12:34:38 GMT
oldskeet , it was an UP week, not mixed - check your Nasdaq Comp data. FOR THE WEEK (index changes only), DJIA +1.24%, SP500 +1.12%, Nasdaq Comp +0.56%, R2000 +0.32%. DJ Transports +2.26%; DJ Utilities +0.60%. (Rotating spot energy XLE +0.84%) US$ index (spot) -0.04%, oil/WTI futures +4.34%, gold futures +0.08%. Thank you for the heads up. I pulled this number from MarketWatch for NASDAQ Friday after market close at -0.05%. Here is the link: www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/compNotice, it still reads, as I write, -0.05% for five days. Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jan 1, 2022 14:14:12 GMT
Thank You for the weekly briefing. It is of great value to me even when the trading volume is light. I checked the monthly charts for my personal market reconisence. The trend for the S&P 500 on the monthly chart clearly indicates we have blue skies and new highs until something changes. The CRB index has established a bullish trend but it has plenty of room to run before the atmosphere thins out after any new highs. Treasurey rates are in a steep advance, but obviously a long way from any new highs. I was heavey on cash until yesterday. Yesterday I re-jigged my investments to give me more long term or cyclical protection from inflation by opening a position in NEM. NEM is a global miner of Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, and other metals. It is my feeling that we are probably near the beginning of a multi-yr cycle of inflation and/or a depreciating dollar. This cycle should be a boon for commodities as well as other assets. It probably will not run to extremes, but if it does I want some protection. My finances are such that I am prepared for anything except a near collapse of the economy. I doubt that that will happen, but if it does my position in NEM should enable me to float thru easier than many. An additional factor is that 2022 is my 80th yr and I should probably lighten up on my trading. The plan is to hold NEM thru the upcoming cycle or until I need the bucks.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jan 3, 2022 22:54:04 GMT
I don't know wear my post just flew to, but I merely wanted to point out that trading volume for the S&P 500 returned to averag today and the price advanced modestly. The Holidays are over and we are back on trend.
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 4, 2022 4:55:43 GMT
There is not a lot that I can add to your weekly summary. I find myself in a similar position as you in that I can't find something I really want to invest in. My favorite go-to fund for excess dividends yields about 6.5% at it's current price. That is O K, but not exciting to me. Perhaps I should not be looking for yield and just speculate on capital gains. Precious metals and Ag commodities could move up if trading volume returns after the holidays. I have quite a pile of cash from my 12/2021 distributions/dividends. I too have no idea where I want that to go. This is exactly why all my distributions are reinvested. I sell shares when I need to. I want to be invested at 99+%. This way my total portfolio works every day. Even a mediocre performance is better than none.
|
|
|
Post by Capital on Jan 4, 2022 12:23:01 GMT
I have quite a pile of cash from my 12/2021 distributions/dividends. I too have no idea where I want that to go. This is exactly why all my distributions are reinvested. I sell shares when I need to. I want to be invested at 99+%. This way my total portfolio works every day. Even a mediocre performance is better than none. FD glad that works for you. Since making that post I have invested those funds.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Jan 7, 2022 16:39:28 GMT
Hi guys. The briefing report will be late. I hope to have it posted by Sunday evening as I have computer issues. Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jan 8, 2022 13:40:15 GMT
The most telling and interesting item on the charts this week is the breakout from the cup w handle pattern which the 10 yr treasurey rate performed. The break above the neckline of the CwH pattern projects a rise in 10 yr rates to the 2.8/3% range this yr. Assuming the Fed raises short term rates 3 time this yr to a target of .75 or so, the spread should greatly invigorate the acceleration of money in the U S. Someone else will have to speculate on what the effect that acceleration will have on inflation. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p00486983667&a=412560547&listNum=86
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Jan 8, 2022 14:00:05 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending January 7, 2022. It is ... "Out with the Old and In with the New" as this briefing report starts a new thread for 2022.
The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished down for the first week of the New Year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down -0.29%. the S&P 500 Stock Index fell -1.87%, the Nasdaq Composite declined -4.53%, while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index dropped -2.92%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were XLE (Energy) +10.55%, XLF (Financials) +5.43% and XLI (Industrials) +0.65%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.20% and was down for the week -1.83%. It is off its 52 week high by -2.98%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.77% and for the week and year to date lost -1.44%. It is off its 52 week high by -4.86%.
Following the Markets
Large / Mid / Small / Micro Cap Compass: They were OEF -1.68% ... MDY -1.70% ... IJR -0.56% ... and IWC -2.48%.
Global Equity Compass: For the week the three best were GSP (Global Commodities) +3.66%, IEV (Europe) +0.18%, and EEM (Emerging Markets) -0.27%.
Income Compass: For the week the three best were $CASH 0.00%, SHV (US Short term US Treasuries) -0.01% and HYD (H Y Municipals) -0.45%.
Currency Compass: For the week the three best were FXB (British Pound) +0.55%, UUP (US Dollar) +0.12% and FXC (Candian Dollar) 0.00%.
Hopefully, by next week my computer system will be back up and a more in depth report will be provided going forward.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
|
|