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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 6, 2021 16:48:19 GMT
My contribution is a confession and a chart. The confession is that I sold most of my silver position on the morning news that the employment report was better than expected. I should have followed a rule of mine and waited to see what the markets reaction was to the news. The result of my lack of discipline was buying back most of the position at a higher price before the close. The apparent lesson on that excersize is that sometimes we just have to be retrained in subjects that should be 2nd nature by now. My chart is the weekly chart for SLV. The pattern is a developing flag on a flagpole. The pattern is a continuation pattern which means that when the flag is complete and the breakout is executed, the flag should be continued. That projects a run to about $40 from the current $24 or so. The run should be rather steep. I will not be trading again on any news headline. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p90310518794&a=432587104&listNum=86You may be forgiven, my son. But, you must pay penance. Say twelve "Hail Horoscope" and buy 20 sh of BABA and all will be forgiven.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2021 18:28:05 GMT
My contribution is a confession and a chart. The confession is that I sold most of my silver position on the morning news that the employment report was better than expected. I should have followed a rule of mine and waited to see what the markets reaction was to the news. The result of my lack of discipline was buying back most of the position at a higher price before the close. The apparent lesson on that excersize is that sometimes we just have to be retrained in subjects that should be 2nd nature by now. My chart is the weekly chart for SLV. The pattern is a developing flag on a flagpole. The pattern is a continuation pattern which means that when the flag is complete and the breakout is executed, the flag should be continued. That projects a run to about $40 from the current $24 or so. The run should be rather steep. I will not be trading again on any news headline. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p90310518794&a=432587104&listNum=86You may be forgiven, my son. But, you must pay penance. Say twelve "Hail Horoscope" and buy 20 sh of BABA and all will be forgiven. I've done the 12 "Hail Horoscopes", M'Lord, but I have no money left to buy the BABA. Could you make me a loan?? My margin at Fido is in use.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 13, 2021 11:28:24 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending November 12, 2021. The Index Review The major market indices finished down for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -0.63%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -0.31%, the Nasdaq Composite was down -0.69%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -1.04%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were materials +2.60%, health care +0.72%, and industrials +0.48%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.27% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield was listed at 1.57%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +24.67%. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were FXI (China) +5.29%, BKF (BRIC Countries) +3.55% and EWZ (Brazil) +3.04%. Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were SHY (1-3 Yr US Treasuries) -0.24%, HYG (Corporate High Yield) -0.74% and AGG (US Agg Bond) -0.78%. Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were SLV (Silver) +4.79%, GLD (Gold) +2.71% and DBA (Agiculture) +2.49%. Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were GDX (Gold Miners) +6.17%, SIL (Silver Miners) +6.07% and XME (Metals & Mining) +4.28%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.87%, FXB (British Sterling) -0.51% and FXY (Japanese Yen) -0.60% A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Thus far, I am up 6.28% in my spiff (special investment) position which I opened back in September. Since, this spiff is invested in Voya Corporate Leaders 100 Fund (VYCAX) I have no plans to add to it until after it makes it's annual year end distribution estimated to be in the 6% to 8% range. I will be building cash during the most part of the 4th quarter while being fully invested within the confines of my portfolio's (20/40/40) asset allocation (cash, bonds and stocks). I will rebalance, if warranted, during the 1st quarter of 2021. Articles of Investment Interest US STOCKS-Wall Street ends www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-idUSL1N2S323ZNY Fed Releases First Monthly Bond-Buying Schedule Reflecting Taper www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-purchase-schedule-idUSKBN2HX2D3Is Cash a Good Low "Risk" Hedge? www.zerohedge.com/markets/cash-good-risk-hedgeOld_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYBreadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionT/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 13, 2021 12:16:24 GMT
oldskeet, Would you mind explaining a bit more about your Compass's? Are these partitions of your watch lists or actual holdings? Long time ago, as a Scout I would use them and still have tucked away a nice oil filled one with a lanyard.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 13, 2021 12:30:48 GMT
Hi Fearchar , Thanks for your question. You guessed it. Being a former boy scout, like you, I used the compass to find my way and hold its merit badge. Therefore, to find the faster moving market currents I have set up "a compass" of sorts to track and follow the market and to locate the faster moving "current." As a retail investor some of the assets found in the compass I hold and others I don't.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 13, 2021 16:14:11 GMT
Silver has outperformed Gold in the precious metals this week. The short term, daily chart for Silver indicates that it broke above a cup with handle pattern on wednesday and continued up to confirm the break. The Cup w Handle pattern projects a rise to the 27.5/28 dollar area over the short term. How it performs there will indicate if it is going to consolidate or just complete the run to the 49/50 dollar range. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p07740661379&a=417924680&listNum=86I would be disappointed if silver didn't get there before Christmas.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 19, 2021 22:51:07 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending November 19, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -1.38%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.24%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.85%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer discretionary +3.74%, technology +2.39%, and utilities +0.98%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.26% and is up year to date 25.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.83% and for the week lost -0.10%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.83%. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) +2.35%, EWT (Tiawan) +1.41% and SPY (US S&P 500) +0.32%. Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +0.70%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.21% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.11%. Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +4.11%, DBA (Agriculture) +1.62% and GLD (Gold) -1.05%. Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.16%, MOO (Agribusness) -1.37% and TAN (Solar) -1.50%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.98%, FXB (British Sterling) +0.14%% and FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.02% A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: My "All Weather Asset Allocation" of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes my volatility, and provides me long-term returns. The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide me the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback or to take advantage of seasonal investment trends. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are currency, money market mutual funds, FDIC bank deposits and CD's. Generally, this area benefits from rising interest rates. The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, BAICX & PONAX . The 40% held in the equity area provides me dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, which, over time, helps to offset the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are AMECX, IDIVX & SPECX. From their neutral weightings, 40% each for my stock and bond areas, overweights (underweights) are allowed at + (or -) 5% with rebalance thresholds set at + (or -) 2% from desired weightings while cash is allowed to float. Thus the maximum weighting for both stocks and bonds could be as high as 47% each with their minimum weightings being as low as 33% while cash is allowed to float with a weighting range of 6% to 34%. So what seemed, at first glance, to be a very conservative asset allocation does allow for positioning based upon market reads along with some other influencing factors. Currently, I am overweight equity through the engagement of a spiff position and a little underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to anticipated rising interest rates. Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, I have found, principal grows over time as well as the size of my disbursements. My objective is to continue to grow my principal along with increasing my income stream. Articles of Investment Interest Is Investing an Art, a Science, or a Craft? www.gurufocus.com/news/969787/seth-klarman-is-investing-an-art-a-science-or-a-craftEurope Lockdown Fears Knock Stocks, Spark Dash for Bonds www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2021-11-19/The Big Green Push to Get Rid of Coal Had the Opposite Effect mishtalk.com/economics/the-big-green-push-to-get-rid-of-coal-had-the-opposite-effectWall Street Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield in 2022 www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-forecasts-us-dollar-10-year-treasury-yield-2022-2021-11-18/Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Stock Proxy / S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYBreadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625S&P 500 Chart, Stock Proxy, Elder Ray System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBond Proxy / Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) Short Volume AGG ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Chart, Bond Proxy, Elder Ray System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 19, 2021 22:55:40 GMT
oldskeet, Thanks for posting this. Lots of good info concisely delivered, IMO. Much appreciated! - RM
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 19, 2021 23:09:11 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 19, 2021 23:26:56 GMT
I think that some aspects related to cryptos in the soft-infrastructure stimulus passed by the House has caused a mini selloff in the crypros.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 20, 2021 12:36:05 GMT
I can believe that the recent infratructure bill had the effect of accelerating the correction in Cryptos, but I believe they peaked when the bill was still in doubt. At any rate my post was intended as a heads-up rather than a suggestion to adjust ones portfolio.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 26, 2021 23:45:22 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending November 26, 2021. The Index Review For the week all the major equity indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -2.71%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -2.34%, the Nasdaq Composite retreated -3.14% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -4.98%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were utilities -0.24%, consumer defensive -0.48%, and health care -1.35%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.29% and is up year to date 22.33%; but off its 52 week high by -3.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.82% and for the week and lost -0.46%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -2.26% and is off its 52 week high by -3.32%. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were EWZ (Brazil) +0.79%, SPY (US S&P 500) -2.29%, and QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) -1.95%. Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +2.53%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.72% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.25%. Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +6.54%, DBA (Agriculture) -0.25% and GLD (Gold) -4.08%. Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were REMX (Rare Earth Metals) +3.75%, SLX (Steel) +0.60% and LIT (Global Lithium) -0.93%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXY (Japanese Yen) +1.05%, UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.59%, and FXF (Swiss Frank) +0.24%. A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Currently, Old_Skeet is a little underweight fixed income due to anticipated rising interest rates along with FOMC tappering and a little overweight equity due to a seasonal stock trend via a special investment position (spiff). In the fall I generally increase my equity weighting and towards the end of spring I trim, or close, my special investment position. As I write, the equity spiff that I opened back in September, during a stock market dip, is up 3.42%. Articles of Investment Interest Wall St Week Ahead COVID-19 Fears Reappear As a Threat to Market www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wall-st-week-ahead-covid-19-fears-reappear-threat-market-2021-11-26/Best Money Market Mutual Funds Of 2021 www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/the-best-money-market-mutual-funds/Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) Short Volume SPY ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYBreadth Reading SPY ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625SPY Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280T/A Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) Short Volume AGG ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Yield Chart ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591AGG Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535T/A Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 27, 2021 1:20:24 GMT
oldskeet, Thanks for sharing. Seems a little odd how the AGG is further off its high than the S&P500 is. So, I took a closer look and see that while VOO was off 2.18% today, AGG was ahead 0.71% (nice).
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Post by ignatz on Nov 27, 2021 1:24:28 GMT
Weird month.....the SP is off noticeably less than the average "balanced" 60/40 fund. A narrow market, not normally a good sign for the near future.
Are you dancing closer to the exit? If not, what will cause you to? Highly wary, but doing nothing?
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 27, 2021 7:00:59 GMT
Hi ignatz , Thanks for your queston. "Are you dancing closer to the exit? If not, what will cause you to? Highly wary, but doing nothing?" Generally, Old_Skeet rides with the markets since my portfolio is designed to be an income generator. If I sell I lose the income stream that it generates. This is why I run an all weather (20/40/40) asset allocation. During stock market downdrafts the cash that I hold gives me the ability to buy and as the market recovers I genrally sell the updrafts keeping within my asset allocation's guard rails. So, for me, I ride and clip my fixed income coupons along with stock dividends. It is not uncommon for me to see better than a 100k range of movement in my portfolio's value during a stock market correction. While that may bother some it does not bother me because I am getting paid to sit. In addition, should I sell out I'd have a large capital gain resulting in a rather large tax bill. So, again, I sit with some trading around the edges through special investment positions (spiffs). Hi Fearchar , Confirming, according to M* portfolio manager, AGG is off its 52 week high by -3.32% while SPY is off -3.08%. This could change should the stock market continue its downward movement and bonds turn upward. In addition, my 50/50 model made up 50% AGG and 50% SPY (rebalanced monthly) was down for the week -1.03% and year to date has had a total return of +11.17%. Old_Skeet Additional Comment: Some may be asking ... Where to now Charlie Brown? Answer: Your guess is probally as good as mine! For now I sit ... and I watch. I am sure something (opportunity) will surface in the coming days. This is the reason I opened a spiff back in September in a mutual fund that spins off the equally weighted S&P 100 Index as I felt equities would have a good run over the next six months via a seasonal investment strategy. Time will tell if this was a prudent move. After the fund (VYCAX) makes its annual disbursement in December, depending on stock market movement, I may add to this spiff position. I'll post weekly updates on the spiff as to where I hold, fold, or add. At this point in time, as I write, I am not going to anticipate market movement. Seems though, we might be headed downward with a continued sell off. When I put my buying britches on I will let you know.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 27, 2021 15:04:09 GMT
Thank You for your briefing. It is helpful to me and I am sure it is to others. My personal situations have changed and consequently I have changed my trading port from a short term, opportunistic trading port to a leveraged income producer. This should reduce the time I spend following the market. Having said that, an analysis of the S&P 500 daily, weekly, and monthly charts indicates to me that equities are probably in for a rough time in the weeks ahead. The monthly chart remains bullish except that it is overbought and due for a correction. The weekly, intermediate term, chart shows that the momentum oscillators have made a bearish crossover and has already corrected an overbought condition as indicated by the RSI. The short term, daily chart is bearish. Fridays close was down on above average daily trading volume. This above average trading volume was accomplished on a shortened trading day because of the holiday. If the markets had been open for a full session, it is reasonable to think that the results would have been worse. The momentum indicators show that the daily chart began losing momentum nearly 2 wks ago. Before the BBB bill passed and before the latest Covid scare. Those facts would seem to indicate that the driver for the sell-off is Taper. Covid news and the BBB are things that have accelerated the sell-off. The equity market appears to have turned. Support could develop at 4470, then 4350, then 3900, or possibly 3309 on the S&P 500. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p28921526697&a=412512122&listNum=86
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 27, 2021 20:44:11 GMT
oldskeet, Thanks for this. Your contribution (as well as answering follow up questions) is one of my favorite BB threads. Thanks again🙏🏻 - RM
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 28, 2021 13:36:45 GMT
M* Portfolio "% Below 52-wk High" is price-based and is not reliable as distributions are not accounted for. The other thing to note is that for bond funds, the high was in December 2020 while for stocks in November 2021. Stockcharts provides better information. AGG VOO PricesAGG VOO Reinvested
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 28, 2021 16:39:46 GMT
M* Portfolio "% Below 52-wk High" is price-based and is not reliable as distributions are not accounted for. The other thing to note is that for bond funds, the high was in December 2020 while for stocks in November 2021. Stockcharts provides better information. AGG VOO PricesAGG VOO ReinvestedThanks yogibearbull for pulling these two charts together. So, cash performed better than AGG over the last 12 months. And it might be the case for the next 12 months as well. I need to revisit my AA and perhaps use cash as my fixed income allocation - that would certainly give more optionality to take advantage of equity swoons.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 29, 2021 9:39:54 GMT
Hi guys, The percent (%) selling off the 52 week high has nothing to do with total return. It simply means the percent below the 52 week high water mark (price) that the security is currently selling. Nothing more, nothing less.
From Investopedia. "The 'percentage off the 52-week high or low' refers to when a security's current price is relative to where it has traded over the last 52 weeks. This gives investors an idea of how much the security has moved in the last year and whether it is trading near the top, middle or bottom of the range."
So, don't get confused. Just because a security is selling below its 52 week high does not reflect it lost money during the 52 week period (although it could) because it does not take into account (for mutual funds) dividend, return of capital, and capital gain disbursements.
Still it is a metric that Old_Skeet likes to use as a first brush review in my buying process as I like to buy below 52 week highs. I typically stay away from buying potential large capital gain distributions especially in a taxable account because these distributions are considered income by the IRS. So, I like to stay away from buying funds that have the potential to expose me to a large tax bill especially in my taxable account. Now that we are moving into December when a good number of mutual funds make their annual capital gain distributions using the % off the 52 week high might clue me to a large capital gain distribution that was recently made. Generally, in a rising stock market, I have found that a good number of these funds recover pretty quickly from these distributions and this buy strategy has helped me add Alpha to my portfolio's performance.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 29, 2021 15:42:02 GMT
In the Fidelity presentation, they calculated that buying the S&P at an all time high resulted in a slightly better return over the long term. Typically, an all time high is followed by another and another; Momentum, is a factor.
Anyhow, agree that buying taxable funds towards the end of the year is an easy way to get an extra tax bill.
Little surprised though with your comment in general regarding taxable accounts. I could be wrong, but are you actively trading in taxable accounts?
My taxable accounts contain the oldest holdings with huge unrealized capital gains. My Mom's account contains a few stocks from the 1970's! No way would I sell them.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 29, 2021 17:10:52 GMT
At oldskeet...thanks for providing the info, links, and your investing methods/status.
R48
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 30, 2021 9:43:06 GMT
Hi Fearchar , Responding to your question (comment) of sorts. "Little surprised though with your comment in general regarding taxable accounts. I could be wrong, but are you actively trading in taxable accounts?" For my wife and me about 70% of my our invested assets are in taxable accounts with about 30% being in tax deffered (retirement) accounts. With the size of our portfolios we have to be careful in my trading activity along with how much income and capital gains are generated each year in our taxable accounts; otherwise, we (I) wind up with a sizeable tax bill plus we could have increased medicare premiums. In addition, we both now have to take RMD's. With this, we have to throttle our income generation along with our spending. This is one of the reasons for a large cash position in our portfolios as it generates little income plus it has other advantages as well should we need a large cash draw over and above what our portfolios generate. Aint Life Interesting in Retirement? And, we consider ourselfs middle class folk. Still, we have to manage to hold on to what we built through the years.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 30, 2021 12:14:06 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 3, 2021 23:24:35 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending December 3, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -0.91%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -1.22%, the Nasdaq Composite retreated -2.62% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -3.86%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were utilities +0.96%%, real etate +0.02% and technology -0.52%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.24% and is up year to date +22.35%; but off its 52 week high by -4.25%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.76% and for the week gained +0.62%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.01% and is off its 52 week high by -2.68%. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were RSX (Russia) +4.17%, EWY (South Korea) +3.87% and EWT (Taiwan) +3.33%. Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +2.54%, LQD (Investment Grade Corporate) +1.19% and IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.86%. Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were GLD (Gold) -0.13%, DBA (Agriculture) -1.15% and SLV (Silver) -2.03%. Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.92%, SLX (Steel) -1.43% and MOO (Agriculture) -1.86%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXF (Swiss Frank) +0.54%, FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.26% and FXE (Euro Dollar) +0.02%.. Tom's Ouija Board: Tom's Ouija Board now favors bonds (AGG) which were up +0.74% while stocks (SPY) were down -2.43% for the past rolling month. With this, at market close, on 12/3 Tom's Ouija board's suggested an asset allocation direction change moving from a 40%/60% (bond/stock) to a 50%/50% allocation as stocks have been meeting headwinds. Once an asset allocation direction change has been made it stays locked for, at least, 31 days from the last trade date before another asset allocation direction change can be made. Should stocks continue to falter then the next allocation stop would be a 60/40 (bond/stock) allocation as it is thought, by Tom, that cash & bonds will lose less than stocks. Who is Tom? Tom is one of my high school buddies, a retired civil engineer, and a member of my local investment group. He used to be a day trader but now runs a simplified portfolio consisting of cash (US Dollars), bonds (AGG) and stocks (SPY). He makes adjustments to his asset mix based upon his read on the markets using his Ouija board to set his asset allocation which has three options. One bing a 40% cash & bond, 60% stock mix, another being a 50% cash, bond, 50% stock mix, and the third being a 60% cash & bond, 40% stock mix. His thinking is that in a stock market downdraft cash and bonds will lose less than stocks. As stocks falter he moves to cash and bonds at a measured pace. As stocks rally he moves back to stocks, from cash and bonds, at a measured pace. And, you guessed it. Some of Old_Skeet's reference links are used by Tom in his Ouija board. I call my call's (when made) Old_Skeet's Scientific Wild Ass Guess (SWAG). Currently, my SWAG centers around a 20% cash, 40% bond and 40% stock asset allocation (all weather) and has pretty much been this way since I retired about eight years ago. But, not for Tom as he likes to be more active with his asset allocation positioning more so than me. Before he retired he ran a 30/70 to 70/30 (bond/stock) mix. Articles of Investment Interest Moderna CEO Repeats That Vaccine Won't Work For Omicron www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/markets-edge-after-moderna-ceo-repeats-vaccine-wont-work-omicronWhy Inflation Is A Runaway Freight Train www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-inflation-runaway-freight-trainHedge Funds Are Liquidating At A Furious Pace.... And Retail Investors Are Buying It All www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-liquidating-furious-pace-and-retail-investors-are-buying-it-allNarrowing Equity Market Breadth May Signal a "Market Top" -BofA www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasuries-saw-largest-weekly-inflows-more-than-year-bofa-2021-12-03/Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) SPY Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYSPY Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625SPY Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280SPY Yield Chart ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591SPY T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) AGG Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535AGG Yield Chart ... ycharts.com/companies/AGG/dividend_yieldAGG T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet Comment: Edited to tell about Tom.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 4, 2021 0:16:33 GMT
Thank You for the report. The following are a few observations that I hope will add to your report. The spike in trading volume that is evident on your nakedshortreport and on the weekly SPX chart is telling for the broader stock market. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p76405029039&a=1074819727&listNum=86 The 2 consecutive down weeks for the price of the S&P 500 and the increased trading volume are strong indicators that the broader domestic stock market has turned down. The decline in prices for most or many commodities is closely related to the increased strength of the USD since it bottomed last june. The decline in commodity prices, especially oil, should be a damper for projected inflation. An item of note is the volatility of the USD on tuesday. The swing from daily high to the daily low was about 1.1% with USD closing very close to where it started. I have found no explanation for that volatility but the Forex market must have been chaotic on tuesday. EDIT; The VIX is also elevated, signaling a high level of uncertainty in the domestic stock market. All applicable chart signals considered, It looks like Santa is hauling coal for Christmas.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 11, 2021 11:58:30 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending December 10, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +4.02%. the S&P 500 Stock Index rose +3.82%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +3.61%, while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was up +2.43%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were technology +5.90%, energy +3.81% and consumer staples +3.66%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.24% and is up year to date +27.04%; and, it is off it's 52 week high by -0.59%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.81% and for the week lost -0.73%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.72% and it is off it's 52 week high by -3.39%. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were DIA (US DOW Industrials) +4.04%, EWA (Austrailia) +3.83% and FXI (China) +3.71%. Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were HYG (US Corporate High Yield) +0.73%, SHY (1-3 Yr US Treasuries) -0.16% and AGG (US Bond Aggregate) -0.73%. Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were USO (Oil) +8.40%, GLD (Gold) -0.03% and DBA (Agriculture) -0.10%. Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were SLX (Steel) +4.09%, PIO (Global Water) +3.73% and XME (Metals & Mining) +3.67%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXA (Australian Dollar) +2.33%, FXC (Canadian Dollar) +0.78% and FXB (British Pound) +0.27%. Tom's Ouija Board & Old Skeet's SWAG: Tom's Ouija Board now favors a 50/50 asset allocation with 50% invested in SPY (stocks) and 50% in fixed assets split equally between bonds 25% (AGG) and cash (25%). For stocks even though there was strength reflected in their upward price movement this week the breadth reading for the most part has been below its 200 day moving average and has been declining since September for SPY. On the fixed side even though AGG has been been in price retreat since September and even with the potential of rising interest rates to combat rising inflation Tom's Ouija board favors an increase on the fixed asset side of the portfolio from 40% to 50% due to the headwinds stocks have been recently meeting as bonds and cash will lose less in a stock market correction. In addition, SPY is near its all time high. The suggested allocation on the fixed side is split evenly between cash at 25% and bonds at 25% (AGG). Should there be a change from the sell signal, for AGG, to a buy signal then the Ouija board would recommend an increase allocation for bonds with a reduction in cash. Tom's Ouija board is a mechanical based system designed by a retired civil engineer. Old_Skeet's SWAG system is designed by a retired corporate credit manager and is formulated by reasoning. The above comment made about the breadth reading comes from Old_Skeet's reasoning and is not part of the Ouija boards metrics nor the comment about SPY trading near its all time high. Articles of Investment Interest Wall St Week Ahead Investors Await Faster Taper, Inflation View at Fed Meeting www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wall-st-week-ahead-investors-await-faster-taper-inflation-view-fed-meeting-2021-12-10/"Potential Polar Vortex Event" Could Spark Bullish Reversal In NatGas www.zerohedge.com/weather/probability-rising-polar-vortex-january-could-lead-bullish-natgas-setupOld_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) SPY Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYSPY Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625SPY Yield Chart ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591SPY Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280SPY T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) AGG Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Yield Chart ... ycharts.com/companies/AGG/dividend_yieldAGG Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535AGG T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 11, 2021 13:28:28 GMT
Thank You for the report. It is very useful for me. The little bit that I would add is that even though the S&P 500 had a strong week, it was unable to set a new high. It did have a strong close on friday and might be positioned for a new high on Monday, but it might not also. The Polar Vortex that zerohedge is reporting has been known for a while. If one wants to play it, they would want to check inventory reports before buying UNG. I believe supplies are adequate, however a buy limit order at 10.25 could be good for a day trade. I am waiting for the Fed and expecting the kind of inflation I saw in the '70's. BTW, many people got rich from that round of inflation.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 17, 2021 21:50:12 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending December 17, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major equity indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.68%. the S&P 500 Stock Index lost -1.94%, the Nasdaq Composite gave back +2.95%, while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was down +1.71%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were XLP (Consumer Staples) +4.90%, XLV (Health Care) +3.57% and XLU (Utilities) +3.35%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.24% and is up year to date +25.90%; and off its 52 week high by -2.89%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.81% and for the week gained +0.19%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.52% and is off its 52 week high by -3.16%. There have been some changes to the compass section as their number has been reduced from five to three. From my perspective this is more reflective of the retail investor and what might be reflected within their portfolios. In addition, I feel it is important to follow the major currencies. Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were GSP (Commodities) +1.05%, EWJ (Japan) +0.75%, and IEV (Europe) +0.03%. Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were PFF (Preferred Securities) +0.64%, IEF (US 7 to 10 Yr Tresuries) +0.53%, and AGG (US Aggregate Bond) +0.19%. Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar) +0.56%, FXY (Japanese Yen) -0.24% and FXF (Swiss Franc) -0.35%. Old_Skeet's Soap Box ... For the week Old_Skeet continued to collect his mutual fund capital gain distribuions with a good bit of them being invested into three of my money market mutal funds because of anticipated rising interest rates. In addition, I added to my Corporate Leaders 100 Fund (VYCAX) which spins from the S&P 100 Index. This fund is a large cap broad based equally weighted equity fund, it rebalances quarterly, and it currently has a value tilt with a recent distribution payout of 7.93%. Should you wish to view fund information click on the link ... individuals.voya.com/product/mutual-fund/profile/voya-corporate-leaders-r-100-fundArticles of Investment Interest Proposed Rule Changes Coming to Money Market Mutual Funds www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/ic-34441-fact-sheet.pdfMorgan Stanley Warns The Fed's Turbo Taper Will Trigger Market Chaos Over "The Next 3-4 Months" www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-warns-feds-taper-will-trigger-market-chaos-over-next-3-4-monthsMorgan Stanley Global Strategy Outlook 2022 www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2022Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) SPY Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYSPY Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625SPY Yield Chart ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591SPY Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280SPY T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionBond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) AGG Short Volume ... nakedshortreport.com/company/AGGAGG Yield Chart ... ycharts.com/companies/AGG/dividend_yieldAGG Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535AGG T/A Opinion ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 17, 2021 22:56:08 GMT
Dang Skeet, You're making a bear out of me. Not only does your SPY short volume show me that the short volume has increased faster than long volume over the past month, the zerohedge article implies that the largest difference between the pros is the degree of bearishness. Unfortunately this appears to agree with my dailey chart for the S&P 500. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p28921526697&a=412512122&listNum=86 I show a rounded top that could become a bearish H&S pattern within 2 to 3 months. I will have no projections until the pattern has completed, however that is the direction the S&P is going in. I also read somewhere that while money supply may be the primary driver for inflation, climate change or global warming is becoming a more important factor because of it's impact on agriculture. Unfortunately the fed does not track global warming. DBA is an ETF which invests in Ag Commodities. There probably are others.
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