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Post by mnfish on Apr 28, 2023 12:05:50 GMT
No change from Wells Advisors. 2023 SP500 range 3700 to 4200. Prefer short term treasuries to stocks right now. Recession late this year into 2024. Better opportunities coming for stocks.
On another puzzling note - they dropped coverage of META which was a Signature Pick just recently and I believe still is. Why would you drop coverage?
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 28, 2023 12:15:07 GMT
Further evidence of a market that is not necessarily going up is apparent when one looks at the S&P small cap index. That H&S pattern may be noisey and imperfect, but the fact that the neckline is broken portends further declines in the near future. FWIW, such declines imply a drying up of liquidity for riskier investments. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SML&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p12490612391&a=418514029&listNum=86
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 28, 2023 12:19:16 GMT
If people are defensive amd pulling money out of stock market, then why are stocks going up? @waffle2 , In tracking the number of stocks trading below their 50 day moving average they have been recently falling. What was a more broad base rally has become thinner with the bigger names moving upward while smaller names moving downward on their price line. If this continues then I anticipate the price line for the Index will also retreat because of a decline in breath. A lot will depend on earnings (Remember estimates have been lowered so it is easier for companies to beat expectations). In addition, the FOMC meets soon and then there is the debt ceiling debacle. I am thinking we move lower before we move into the next rally. For me, the market is dancing on a false floor and there will be a better time to buy as we move into summer. I remain 20/40/40 and nibble around the edges during stock market pullbacks with my Barometer giving a buy signal. Thus far, it has not yet produce the buy signal which I now await. Additional comment. I read this morning where BOA says sell above 4,200. Did BOA happen to explain why they think the S&P 500 will reach 4200?
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Post by Chahta on Apr 28, 2023 12:27:37 GMT
“I read this morning where BOA says sell above 4,200.”
We have to get there first. 😀
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Post by fred495 on Apr 28, 2023 12:57:37 GMT
In the current market/political environment, and as a retired and conservative investor, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking return on capital. I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution, as a wise investor once said.
Hence, at this time, I am invested only in FDIC insured CDs from large national banks and Treasury only MM funds.
However, I have been looking at funds to put on my watch list and perhaps purchase once the proverbial dust has settled, e.g., debt limit. My selection criteria is for funds that had a 2022 loss of < 10%, a 3 year total return > 5%, and a SD < 10. So far, I have come up with the following five possible candidates: ARBIX (?), BLNDX, CBLDX, JHQAX and PVCMX.
I expect to put about 40-50% of my portfolio into CDs and MM funds as long as rates stay above 3%, the remaining 50-60% will go into a combination of the above listed OEM funds. But, the search goes on.
Good luck, guys.
Fred
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 28, 2023 13:00:14 GMT
Hi Uncle Harley. The article where I read this was a Market watch article. I am thinking if one were to do a Google search they can locate the article. I have trouble in linking articles through my phone. Old_Skeet
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Post by retiredat48 on Apr 28, 2023 14:05:26 GMT
With the yield curve this inverted, I don't see how we avoid a recession. I'm happy to sit on 4.8-5+% cash until it is over. Safe and sound. A couple problems/dilemmas for anyone trying this. First, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of down GDP. This means one can only state a recession has occurred after two three month periods...very late. Yes, those measuring may show, looking backwards, that a stock market may have gone down during a recession; but stocks are usually zooming up in recovery when the time comes a recession can be confirmed as happened. Ditto for "when its over". What does this mean...an up-quarter...fully at least another three months minimum. Stock market likely way up by then. IOW investing when things are "safe" has historically been shown to be the WORSE TIME to invest. The adage is: The market climbs a wall of worry! R48
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Post by archer on Apr 28, 2023 14:18:29 GMT
I think stocks are going up because of institutional buying. Looking at hourly charts, people are selling defensively as shown in the early part of the day. Then around noon EST institutional buyers move in buying in larger volumes and the stocks move higher for the day. Enough days of this and you have a rally.
Also we have a similar phenomena during flat markets. The month of Apr was pretty flat and actually down as of a couple days ago, however the accumulation/distribution line is going up, ie, more money going in than out. Market makers are bullish and aren't believing all the bad news about recession.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 28, 2023 15:26:36 GMT
I always thought the pros went to lunch about noon.
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Post by Capital on Apr 28, 2023 15:39:29 GMT
I always thought the pros went to lunch about noon. Only the first string. The second stringers come out to play when they are gone.
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Post by archer on Apr 28, 2023 15:51:29 GMT
I always thought the pros went to lunch about noon. No no no! They are glued to their computers all day, and eat while working! I've seen them do this on "Billions". Also, Tom Bowley agrees with me. :-)
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Post by mozart522 on Apr 28, 2023 15:56:38 GMT
With the yield curve this inverted, I don't see how we avoid a recession. I'm happy to sit on 4.8-5+% cash until it is over. Safe and sound. A couple problems/dilemmas for anyone trying this. First, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of down GDP. This means one can only state a recession has occurred after two three month periods...very late. Yes, those measuring may show, looking backwards, that a stock market may have gone down during a recession; but stocks are usually zooming up in recovery when the time comes a recession can be confirmed as happened. Ditto for "when its over". What does this mean...an up-quarter...fully at least another three months minimum. Stock market likely way up by then. IOW investing when things are "safe" has historically been shown to be the WORSE TIME to invest. The adage is: The market climbs a wall of worry! R48 Not a "problem/ dilemma" for me. A recession means the market will fall; sometimes hard and sometimes soft, but always down. Typically, when that happens, the FED reacts and begins to ease. That is the time I will be looking at equities although there is usually a lag. That will also be the time to extend bond durations. I don't need to wait for the reporting of two negative quarters. The market and the FED will be enough. And if it doesn't happen until 2024, that's OK with me. As for investing when things are safe, equities are never safe. I was referring to 5+% money market funds. As for your prediction of an up quarter, way up, we will see, but I'm not holding my breath. If it happens, I could care less. No FOMO.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 28, 2023 16:28:52 GMT
The S&P just hit 4158 and its lunch time in New York. Good Luck.
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Post by fishingrod on Apr 28, 2023 17:52:28 GMT
I always thought the pros went to lunch about noon.
I actually take my lunch early at 11am.
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Post by gman57 on Apr 28, 2023 17:59:43 GMT
I was looking into how long recessions last. If you go back to the 1800's about 17 months and since WWII (1945ish) about 10 months. So... if we don't know it's a recession for about 7 months and don't know we're out of a recession for another 7 months and we know the stock market is looking 6 months ahead. Taking all of that into account when will you arrive in NYC if you leave from Key West on the 4th Tuesday of August and go 50mph?
One more bit of wisdom to share.... "This times it's different" You can thank me later.
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Post by Capital on Apr 28, 2023 18:08:13 GMT
I always thought the pros went to lunch about noon.
I actually take my lunch early at 11am.
So the "fish" get an early reprieve
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 28, 2023 18:57:30 GMT
I always thought the pros went to lunch about noon.
I actually take my lunch early at 11am.
Me too. But I'm on Mountain Standard time.
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Post by Norbert on Apr 29, 2023 5:26:35 GMT
A couple problems/dilemmas for anyone trying this. First, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of down GDP. This means one can only state a recession has occurred after two three month periods...very late. Yes, those measuring may show, looking backwards, that a stock market may have gone down during a recession; but stocks are usually zooming up in recovery when the time comes a recession can be confirmed as happened. Ditto for "when its over". What does this mean...an up-quarter...fully at least another three months minimum. Stock market likely way up by then. IOW investing when things are "safe" has historically been shown to be the WORSE TIME to invest. The adage is: The market climbs a wall of worry! R48 Not a "problem/ dilemma" for me. A recession means the market will fall; sometimes hard and sometimes soft, but always down. Typically, when that happens, the FED reacts and begins to ease. That is the time I will be looking at equities although there is usually a lag. That will also be the time to extend bond durations. I don't need to wait for the reporting of two negative quarters. The market and the FED will be enough. And if it doesn't happen until 2024, that's OK with me. As for investing when things are safe, equities are never safe. I was referring to 5+% money market funds. As for your prediction of an up quarter, way up, we will see, but I'm not holding my breath. If it happens, I could care less. No FOMO. Me, I'm at half my full allocation: 50% in cash. This strategy should allow me to declare "Victory" no matter what the market does. If R48 is right, I'll congratulate myself on some very decent equity returns with moderate risk exposure; if R48 is wrong, I'll be able to congratulate myself for the brilliant idea having put 50% in cash earning 4%. N.
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Post by chang on Apr 29, 2023 6:11:01 GMT
The most accurate thing I've read online in quite awhile. Me three. I don’t think anybody has a clue about the short term (less than 5-10 years). I’ve never traded less than I have during the last year. Looking back, almost every long term B&H has been successful, while the majority of short term trades were unsuccessful. I just ignore every prediction and don’t read the financial media anymore. I just don’t think anybody knows anything about the near future.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 29, 2023 9:16:24 GMT
Hi guys.
For the month of April Old_Skeet's Barometer, which follows the S&P500 Index, had a reading range of movement from 51 (neutral) to 61 (overvalued) with an average reading of 58 (overvalued). It closed April with a reading of 59 (overvalued).
I use the Barometer to help me determine the better times to buy equity within my portfolio. Being mostly a buy and hold investor that at times trades around the edges I am fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20,40,40 building cash while I await a better buying opportunity.
If I had a spiff position (special investment) open at this time in the Index I'd most likely be closing it as BAC put out a recommendation to sell the S&P500 Index above 4,200 yesterday. Generally, I wait for the Barometer to produce a reading of overbought before closing or trimming my spiff position(s).
I did during the month make a step buy in one of my muni income funds towards a build out goal of a six percent weighting within it's sleeve. Currently, it is at about a four percent weighting with a total muni income weighting of 13% with a target set at 15%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. I sincerely wish all Good Investing.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2023 11:18:47 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 29, 2023 11:54:55 GMT
@django , Thank you for your allocation question about it's mix. It runs cash, bonds and stocks. It is 20,40,40 with rebalance thresholds set at plus (or minus) 2%. In addition, I can overweight any investment area by up to 5% while letting cash float. It runs left to right based upon its risk. That being cash and bonds on the left side and equities on the right side of my portfolio.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 29, 2023 15:15:01 GMT
My view of the daily and weekly charts for the S&P 500 is contrary to that the views of BOA. The 4150 level was a point of resistance because of confluence of resistances there, namely a high-volume price just below 4150, a Fibo retracement level near there, & a trendline resistance level there also. Those resistance levels failed when the price moved above 4150 and now represent support for the S&P 500. At this point the S&P 500 is likely to consolidate its gains or move higher, possibly to new highs. A decline below 4150 is very unlikely under current conditions. In my view the driver for higher stock index prices would be the declining value of the USD. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p88027274387&a=412512122&listNum=86
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 29, 2023 17:54:00 GMT
uncleharley, Thanks for making comment. Yes, it will be interning to see if BAC's call pans out in the near term. For me, I am continuing to remain invested. Opposing views are what makes the market. Take care and I wish all well. OS
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 29, 2023 19:54:26 GMT
The other alternative is that the S&P just moves sideways for the summer. It doesn't have to go up or down.
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Post by fishingrod on Apr 29, 2023 21:05:17 GMT
The other alternative is that the S&P just moves sideways for the summer. It doesn't have to go up or down.
" Until the other shoe is dropped"
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Post by archer on Apr 29, 2023 21:16:32 GMT
Due to the markets behavior in 2022 we have a few levels of resistance to break through before making new highs. I think UH has a good point about sideways. Even if we do climb to a new all time high, it could easily have a lot of choppy/sideways periods on the way.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 30, 2023 9:32:31 GMT
Hi guys. A heads up. I have lost connectivity to the topics under General. Until this gets fixed my post going forward will be limited. My access to post this was through a bookmark. Wishing all well. O S
For those interested I post the Barometer on the Armchair Investing Board under Old Skeets Call.
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Post by johntaylor on Apr 30, 2023 13:36:29 GMT
In 2022, there were 2 consecutive negative quarters but NBER makes the call.
Incumbents cited employment as a basis to not declare a recession, but cynics noted that elections were then looming.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 30, 2023 19:40:08 GMT
Hi guys. I am now back up and running. Thank you Chang. It seems the topic bars are collapsible and somehow mine collapsed. But, all is good now.
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