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Post by oldskeet on Feb 26, 2023 12:30:15 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 26, 2023 23:07:15 GMT
I base my investment/trading on current markets, I don't care what happened in the past, and I don't predict the unknown future. I also think that markets are not equal, things change and why you must be a flexible investor. Growth can be great for years, then income can be better, then CEFs may shine, sometimes bonds can do better.
Flexibility means, nothing is constant/fix. I may own 3 funds or 5 funds. I can invest in one fund 10% or 50%. I may stay in a trade 2 hours, 2 days, 2 months or 2 years. I may own stocks, bonds, CEFs, commodities, Dollar all at once or only one.
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Post by marpro on Feb 27, 2023 0:01:45 GMT
I quote from your link. "OK, there is a lot of support but there is also huge resistance. From the point of view of a weekly trader, this would be a poor point to buy or sell, given that it's halfway between support and resistance with no good stop out point close by. "
Exactly. +1.
It will be range bound, until push-pull stabilizes. An interest rate push is not going to do anything in the US economy, because there are two jobs for every unemployed. FED alone has no answer for this strange situation. It is not gibberish, but facts I have given links in other threads.
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Post by marpro on Feb 27, 2023 0:04:59 GMT
FD “CEFs may shine.” LOL.
Add/Edit: By the way, I am glad that many of you started posting here.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 27, 2023 2:00:05 GMT
FD “CEFs may shine.” LOL.
Add/Edit: By the way, I am glad that many of you started posting here.
I saw it, I also posted last Monday that market risk is high, which means sell. But for most investors who hold, CEFs should do better after years of underperforming.
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 27, 2023 3:58:17 GMT
I base my investment/trading on current markets, I don't care what happened in the past, and I don't predict the unknown future. I also think that markets are not equal, things change and why you must be a flexible investor. Growth can be great for years, then income can be better, then CEFs may shine, sometimes bonds can do better. Flexibility means, nothing is constant/fix. I may own 3 funds or 5 funds. I can invest in one fund 10% or 50%. I may stay in a trade 2 hours, 2 days, 2 months or 2 years. I may own stocks, bonds, CEFs, commodities, Dollar all at once or only one. FD1000 , Can we stay on topic of the thread please? Why does it have to be that you always talk about how you invest? oldskeet created this thread to discuss an article he linked. And your post does not address anything in that article. Please be considerate in your posts to make sure you are staying on topic. PLEASE.. and I say it again... PLEASE. My request applies to others as well.. Please friends.. for heaven's sake.. stay on topic. Don't introduce PDI in the middle of an S&P500 thread, and vice versa. The moderator of the group allows creating of threads for specific topics. The more we stay on topic the more this group will grow - lest people run away.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 27, 2023 4:20:35 GMT
I base my investment/trading on current markets, I don't care what happened in the past, and I don't predict the unknown future. I also think that markets are not equal, things change and why you must be a flexible investor. Growth can be great for years, then income can be better, then CEFs may shine, sometimes bonds can do better. Flexibility means, nothing is constant/fix. I may own 3 funds or 5 funds. I can invest in one fund 10% or 50%. I may stay in a trade 2 hours, 2 days, 2 months or 2 years. I may own stocks, bonds, CEFs, commodities, Dollar all at once or only one. FD1000 , Can we stay on topic of the thread please? Why does it have to be that you always talk about how you invest? oldskeet created this thread to discuss an article he linked. And your post does not address anything in that article. Please be considerate in your posts to make sure you are staying on topic. PLEASE.. and I say it again... PLEASE. My request applies to others as well.. Please friends.. for heaven's sake.. stay on topic. Don't introduce PDI in the middle of an S&P500 thread, and vice versa. The moderator of the group allows creating of threads for specific topics. The more we stay on topic the more this group will grow - lest people run away. From the article: "The point of TA is not to predict, but rather to identify lower risk entry points for buys and sell" "OK, there is a lot of support but there is also huge resistance. From the point of view of a weekly trader, this would be a poor point to buy or sell given that it's half way between support and resistance with no good stop out point close by" "Fundamentals add to the technical picture. Stocks are historically overvalued, the Fed is hiking, the earnings picture looks bleak." Ultimately, I suspect every one of the support levels on the S&P 500 to break down to approximately the 2200-2400 level or so, at a minimum." Basically, the writer discussed T/A + fundamentals and predicted a bear market. My opinion is 1) Don't predict the future, nobody knows now if we are going to 2200-2400 2) Just my opinion, the above is not correct, a trader should have sold 2 weeks ago according to my T/A 3) A good investor should look at all categories, not only the SP500+QQQ. If CEFs, bond OEFs, SC, international, value are better, then use these, they are not, in the last 2 weeks. 4) Overvalue, and earnings don't have a high correlation to what stocks will do in weeks/months to come 5) As a trader, I found great opportunities during bear markets too, bear markets have high volatility. 6) This thread is under market insight and why I think that many things are connected at least for me. Is the above better? Another question, do you think that inflation and recession should be under market insights? I don't, these are economic indicators, not market indicators.
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Post by oldskeet on Feb 27, 2023 11:15:38 GMT
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Post by Fearchar on Feb 27, 2023 12:26:16 GMT
I think that is a wise choice. I will be rolling over a lot of 3 month T Bills in the near future. Rate hikes are still coming and the equity market has not factored in a contraction of earnings. Top tier professional advisory are bearish.... Blackrock, MS and others.
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 27, 2023 12:41:13 GMT
FD1000 , Can we stay on topic of the thread please? Why does it have to be that you always talk about how you invest? oldskeet created this thread to discuss an article he linked. And your post does not address anything in that article. Please be considerate in your posts to make sure you are staying on topic. PLEASE.. and I say it again... PLEASE. My request applies to others as well.. Please friends.. for heaven's sake.. stay on topic. Don't introduce PDI in the middle of an S&P500 thread, and vice versa. The moderator of the group allows creating of threads for specific topics. The more we stay on topic the more this group will grow - lest people run away. From the article: "The point of TA is not to predict, but rather to identify lower risk entry points for buys and sell" "OK, there is a lot of support but there is also huge resistance. From the point of view of a weekly trader, this would be a poor point to buy or sell given that it's half way between support and resistance with no good stop out point close by" "Fundamentals add to the technical picture. Stocks are historically overvalued, the Fed is hiking, the earnings picture looks bleak." Ultimately, I suspect every one of the support levels on the S&P 500 to break down to approximately the 2200-2400 level or so, at a minimum." Basically, the writer discussed T/A + fundamentals and predicted a bear market. My opinion is 1) Don't predict the future, nobody knows now if we are going to 2200-2400 2) Just my opinion, the above is not correct, a trader should have sold 2 weeks ago according to my T/A 3) A good investor should look at all categories, not only the SP500+QQQ. If CEFs, bond OEFs, SC, international, value are better, then use these, they are not, in the last 2 weeks. 4) Overvalue, and earnings don't have a high correlation to what stocks will do in weeks/months to come 5) As a trader, I found great opportunities during bear markets too, bear markets have high volatility. 6) This thread is under market insight and why I think that many things are connected at least for me. Is the above better? Another question, do you think that inflation and recession should be under market insights? I don't, these are economic indicators, not market indicators. FD1000, thank you for heeding my suggestion and you can see how relevant your post is now compared to the previous usual drum-beat of your investing style. As for the threads on inflation & recession, if market insights is not the correct group which group on this forum do you think those subjects belong in? Eddy
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Post by chang on Feb 27, 2023 13:14:35 GMT
The "Market Insights" board is for "Discuss what's moving the markets", exactly as it says. Inflation and recession are fair topics.
FD, please don't rehash your "how I invest" boilerplate, I assure you everyone has heard it 1,000 times. If you wish, you can start a thread on the T/A board about how you invest, and keep it all on one thread for people to find and read, or not find and not read, as they prefer.
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Post by richardsok on Feb 27, 2023 13:31:12 GMT
At the moment I'm getting good signals on UNG, HDGE, TBF, EFU, and EDZ, all of are priced very low and which could be early in a possible trend. (I own positions in EDZ, TBF and UNG.)
In a risky market, I'm toying with the idea of doing a pairs trade: Go long the buy-and-write TLTW and also BUY a smaller amount of in-the-money calls on TBF. TLTW pays 16% but has a pretty miserable chart. The goal here would be to beat money market funds payouts while trying to achieve such a balance that the net value of TLTW + TBF calls neither rises nor falls. You'll pay a significant part of the 16% offset in your calls bid-ask, but since the MMs aren't paying more than 5%, you have plenty of room for erosion and still come out way ahead.
Well, that's the theory, dearie.
= = = = = =
While we're on the topic, TLTW looks to be a gawdawful longer-term hold, but it just might be a good trading vehicle on technicals. Right now it's at an earlier support level.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 27, 2023 13:38:00 GMT
So I understand the "unfilled gap", it is because the S&P has not closed at or above the top of the gap?
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 27, 2023 13:45:11 GMT
The O P's link gives one an excellant review on how to analyze GAPS on a chart and I have no problems with their methods. The Link fails to address other aspects of chart analysis such as Trend analysis, Market Breadth, Market momentum, Fibonacci analysis, seasonal factors, and just about everything else that could go into a thorough analysis. My thought is that the link is very useful for a classroom study of gaps in price charts, but lacks the criteria necessary to develop a market strategy. Fwiw, I remain bullish this morning.
That peace proposal by China has some interesting points.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 27, 2023 13:48:28 GMT
So I understand the "unfilled gap", it is because the S&P has not closed at or above the top of the gap? Yup. If the trend is up. If the market is above the gap, then one has to look at it differently. I know you know that but we have readers that are less experienced than others. Edit: A 3rd option would be if the price gapped thru a gap. This would be rare and cofusing. Have a great day.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 27, 2023 14:34:43 GMT
So I understand the "unfilled gap", it is because the S&P has not closed at or above the top of the gap? Yup. If the trend is up. If the market is above the gap, then one has to look at it differently. I know you know that but we have readers that are less experienced than others. Edit: A 3rd option would be if the price gapped thru a gap. This would be rare and cofusing. Have a great day. Thanks UH. I know little about TA and my question was because I really didn’t know about gaps. Now I do.
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Post by marpro on Feb 27, 2023 15:09:10 GMT
So I understand the "unfilled gap", it is because the S&P has not closed at or above the top of the gap? Exactly. There seems to be a resistance at the upper level because the investors are not sure where the market is headed - uncertain times.
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Post by steelpony10 on Feb 27, 2023 15:35:42 GMT
Another couple years at least barring further unknowns of course.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 27, 2023 17:34:44 GMT
Yup. If the trend is up. If the market is above the gap, then one has to look at it differently. I know you know that but we have readers that are less experienced than others. Edit: A 3rd option would be if the price gapped thru a gap. This would be rare and confusing. Have a great day. Thanks UH. I know little about TA and my question was because I really didn’t know about gaps. Now I do. I apologize for what must seem like a flippant answer. I believe you have mentioned before that you are a T A novice, but it just didn't register with me. If you want to learn more about charts etc, try going to the Chart School at Stockcharts.com. Put momentum into their search engine and read all you want. When you have finished with momentum you may want to try market breadth in the search engine. Those should keep you busy for a couple of years.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2023 22:44:40 GMT
Moving right along: M2 drops
"Data for January, released Tuesday afternoon, showed a negative growth rate of 1.7% versus a year ago, the biggest year-over-year decline on record and the first time it has contracted in back-to-back months.December’s money supply growth rate was a negative 1.12% versus the previous year, the first-ever decline. The monthly growth rate has been falling consistently since mid-2021, following a historic peak of 27% growth in February 2021. "
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 1, 2023 1:00:27 GMT
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 1, 2023 1:01:40 GMT
Moving right along: M2 drops
"Data for January, released Tuesday afternoon, showed a negative growth rate of 1.7% versus a year ago, the biggest year-over-year decline on record and the first time it has contracted in back-to-back months.December’s money supply growth rate was a negative 1.12% versus the previous year, the first-ever decline. The monthly growth rate has been falling consistently since mid-2021, following a historic peak of 27% growth in February 2021. " The Fed would likely go easy on hikes.. as I have been saying.. with 25bps at most in March. Perhaps they might pause after that and reassess for a couple of months. Meme stocks and crypto will go to the moon, so would QQQ....
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Post by Chahta on Mar 1, 2023 16:18:55 GMT
Kinda hard to get the old folks home to take shares as payment.... They tend to prefer cash.
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 1, 2023 18:29:29 GMT
Chahta , Maybe build a LTC facility. Big Bang R&R, 24 hour staff, nightly entertainment, 2 pools, 2 bars, spa, gym, computer room, 2 restaurants with banquet facilities, emergency and healthcare facility, shuttle bus, library, you can qualify us for a casino, card rooms etc. 10k/mo? to start. Nothing wrong with cash Thor. I just have higher goals whose solutions reside further out on the branch among those are the above type facility. One can still dream in retirement from 10 p.m. until 3 a.m. in the morning anyway.
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Post by yakers on Mar 1, 2023 22:42:21 GMT
Don't have any special insight, so many unknowns but I see production and profitability are ok around me and kind of feel that the market will be up by EOY 2023 so I am VERY slowly DCAing from cash (16% of current AA) into the market.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 1, 2023 23:56:08 GMT
Chahta , Maybe build a LTC facility. Big Bang R&R, 24 hour staff, nightly entertainment, 2 pools, 2 bars, spa, gym, computer room, 2 restaurants with banquet facilities, emergency and healthcare facility, shuttle bus, library, you can qualify us for a casino, card rooms etc. 10k/mo? to start. Nothing wrong with cash Thor. I just have higher goals whose solutions reside further out on the branch among those are the above type facility. One can still dream in retirement from 10 p.m. until 3 a.m. in the morning anyway. Just a data point from where I live; a guy I golf with has a MIL in a nice place in my area. $3900/mo.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2023 0:38:51 GMT
Chahta , Maybe build a LTC facility. Big Bang R&R, 24 hour staff, nightly entertainment, 2 pools, 2 bars, spa, gym, computer room, 2 restaurants with banquet facilities, emergency and healthcare facility, shuttle bus, library, you can qualify us for a casino, card rooms etc. 10k/mo? to start. Nothing wrong with cash Thor. I just have higher goals whose solutions reside further out on the branch among those are the above type facility. One can still dream in retirement from 10 p.m. until 3 a.m. in the morning anyway. Just a data point from where I live; a guy I golf with has a MIL in a nice place in my area. $3900/mo. When one considers that is housing, food, utilities, property taxes/insurance - basically everything - it really isn't that crazy. I don't know what "care" is included. Then there is the peace-of-mind in not having your MIL move in with you - to quote an old commercial, "priceless".
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 3, 2023 5:54:14 GMT
Just wondering? With Thursday's upward stock market movement ... Are we set for a little upward rally? Or, do we continue downward? With earnings in a decline and with anticipated continued rising rates ... I am thinking we go lower. For now, I continue to sit. However, I remain fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% bonds, and 40% stocks. In view of the current investing landscape cash remains my pick. In time, I will begin to buy equity around S&P 500 in the 3800 range. This is based upon forward estimates remaining in the $220.00 range.
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 3, 2023 12:02:21 GMT
Just wondering? With Thursday's upward stock market movement ... Are we set for a little upward rally? Or, do we continue downward? With earnings in a decline and with anticipated continued rising rates ... I am thinking we go lower. For now, I continue to sit. However, I remain fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% bonds, and 40% stocks. In view of the current investing landscape cash remains my pick. In time, I will begin to buy equity around S&P 500 in the 3800 range. This is based upon forward estimates remaining in the $220.00 range. I don’t think investors can disconnect the U.S. from world events, it’s trading partners or future unknowns. This is the downside of holding “only” two years cash, relying on capital gains allocated all over the world and standard bonds. SS for most then becomes investors only reliable cash flow and/or cutting back expenditures for an indeterminate time when most retirement spans are 15-20 years. My opinion remains most need a third allocation dedicated to steady cash flow to supplement SS between capital gains and standard bonds, maybe in the 6% range, and this current lull which could be teetering on recession will be around for awhile.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 3, 2023 12:19:57 GMT
But there normally seems to be a disconnect between US and European stocks.
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