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Post by richardsok on Mar 18, 2023 17:04:10 GMT
I'm currently assessing some PREFERRED STOCK FUNDS, leveraged, such as HPS (now own); FFC (richardsok trade)and PTA (income house guru recommended). Yields in 9+% territory...about 40% leverage. Most of course own many bank preferreds, but the above own mostly the big banks...risk is low of default. Edit to add: My current ranking (like): HPS (highest Qual, and 9.46% yield) , then PTA; then FFC (most volatile for trade benefit). R48 Regret buying FFC when I did. Shoulda waited some more. If banks weaken further, believe the bottom is yet to see. Am now watching -- but not yet buying --PFXF (non-financial preferreds).
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 23, 2023 12:58:31 GMT
Hi guys. Old_Skeet's Barometer which follows the S&P500 Index has had a reading change moving from oversold to undervalued with a current bullish tilt.
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Post by mnfish on Mar 23, 2023 13:00:56 GMT
Hi guys. Old_Skeet's Barometer which follows the S&P500 Index has had a reading change moving from oversold to undervalued with a current bullish tilt. Isn't oversold and undervalued the same thing?
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 23, 2023 14:31:08 GMT
Hi mmfish. The scaling on the Barometer is as follows: Oversold, Undervalued, Neutral (Fair Value), Overvalue, and Overbought. For me and the Barometer an oversold reading indicates the greatest degree of undervaluation. Hope this helps. OS
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 28, 2023 11:44:12 GMT
Hi richardsok . Thanks for making comment on assessing some preferred securities funds. I did step buys in PFANX and CFIAX last week as a play on banking rebounding. At this point in time I am now on hold thinking the FOMC while might pause on their rate increase process are a good ways from an actual pivot. I am afraid their cure for inflation will cause other issues as they continue with their rate increase process. Anyway, I did step buys last week in PFANX and CFIAX as they were at or near their 52 week lows. Both kick off a good income stream.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 1, 2023 14:06:48 GMT
Hi guys. The average Barometer reading for March was 37 (undervalue) with a month ending reading of 50 (neutral). My average return on my March buys, thus far, has been 5%. For now I sit building cash untill the Barometer indicates better buying opportunities.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 8, 2023 11:06:42 GMT
Hi guys.
For me and to assist me in finding direction and to help answer the question, Where to Now?, I often consult my Barometer for it's stock reading.
For the first week of April some feeds improved while others declined with the net effect producing a neutral reading. Investor sentiment improved while the technical and fundamental feeds declined a bit. For me, I continue to sit while I await a better buying opportunity. The Barometer is forecasting a near term pullback as stocks are trading towards their upper band on technicals while reported earnings have continued to decline. For those interested, the Barometer bubbled at a reading of 51 (neutral).
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 8, 2023 12:54:43 GMT
The S&P 500 indicates a similar situation. It has bumped up against a confluence of trendline and volume based resistance. It did bounce down from that resistance point, but recovered a bit on thursday. The trend of higher lows since last october remains intact.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 15, 2023 6:47:21 GMT
Hi guys. The weekending Barometer reading came in at 61 putting the Index as overvalued on the scale. For the same reasons stated last week the near term outlook is for a pull back in the coming weeks ahead as soft Q1 earnings are anticipated along with another FOMC rate increase(s) in an attempt to moderate inflation. Many now feel a recession is coming before year end over a soft landing. For me, I continue to build cash while I await a better buying opportunity.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 22, 2023 11:10:11 GMT
Hi guys.
Not much changed in the Barometer reading this week as it remains at 61 (overvalued). For the week I just sat and observed market and buyer activity. With this, it seems some investors are leaving stocks in favor of other assets. Because of this I'am looking for a pullback in the coming weeks ahead as we approach the FOMC May meeting and move into the debt ceiling debates.
I would be interested in reader comment if you are buying, selling or holding? For me, I am holding and plan to do some equity buying during the anticipated forthcoming stock market pullback.
As always, I wish all Good Investing.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 22, 2023 12:53:54 GMT
I am holding. I would like to add to your analysis that the intraday charts for the S&P500 indicate the index is surging on many days during the eastern lunch hour and the last 30 minutes of daily trading. A theory is that many retail traders make their trades during lunch which is when the pros are away from their desks. The last 30 minutes of daily trading is frequently dominated by OEFs putting the cash they recieved during the day to work in the market. The result is that the S&P price is being supported largely by retail investors, not by the pros. While this condition is not a buy or sell signal, it is an alert that we are approaching conditions when a correction in stock prices is very likely. I remain bullish on precious metals and their miners.
EDIT; After reading the comments on this thread and taking a closer look at the weekly chart for the S&P 500, I am more bullish than bearish. Of course that doesn't make any difference because I have no more money to buy with and no intention of selling. Furthermore if I had any ability or intention of buying or selling, it would not be enough to move the market. Isn't this fun!!
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Post by racqueteer on Apr 22, 2023 13:10:58 GMT
I'm holding, but at a very conservatively constructed and much reduced level compared to 'normal'. The market has been regularly surprising me with its durability, however; so I'm not sure that I'd be the one to ask for advice! I'm not seeing a good reason to take chances, though.
I WILL say that foreign ex-US and Europe aren't looking too badly this week. Plus, uncleharley's precious metals pick isn't a terrible idea either.
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Post by steelpony10 on Apr 22, 2023 13:51:00 GMT
I keep adding to on sale niche income. As far as conventional bonds and equities I’ve been holding since 1978.
One man’s toilet is another man’s bread and butter, so sez the plumber. I hope this lasts awhile.
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Post by retiredat48 on Apr 22, 2023 14:16:17 GMT
I have been "pyramiding up", accumulating the gold miners etf, GDX (thanks uh). Still holding.
A comment about markets. I see primarily "bearish talk/conclusions" by most posters, many forums. A contra-indicator is this. Notice that something that likely has NO VALUE..NO INTRINSIC VALUE, namely Bitcoin, has gone way up in last few months...about doubling from lows. Ask yourself, how does this happen? Well, IMO it shows what can and does happen in markets such as stock markets.
When all the negative information is known by everyone, each has taken personal buy/sell/hold action based on this conclusion. The result is there is no one left to sell. There are always market buyers (401.K biweekly investing). So the market goes up when all thought down. Bitcoin the same...all who were selling out, sold with the FTX Sam Bankman stuff, etc. Strong hands remained.
Today, WE HAVE HISTORICAL EXTREME HIGHS in the number of investors who are stock-market bearish, from measurements such as sentiment indicators, etc. Meaning, all have acted and there is no one left to sell. This is a hugely powerful force, and market correlation statistics back it up. Yes, with a VIX getting down very low, a sine-wave type selloff may occur for awhile, but most likely course of action is a huge rebound up from there. Get a VIX above 25-27 (30 or more preferred), and consider it a good buy point.
R48
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Post by gman57 on Apr 22, 2023 14:35:30 GMT
I have been "pyramiding up", accumulating the gold miners etf, GDX (thanks uh). Still holding. A comment about markets. I see primarily "bearish talk/conclusions" by most posters, many forums. A contra-indicator is this. Notice that something that likely has NO VALUE..NO INTRINSIC VALUE, namely Bitcoin, has gone way up in last few months...about doubling from lows. Ask yourself, how does this happen? Well, IMO it shows what can and does happen in markets such as stock markets. When all the negative information is known by everyone, each has taken personal buy/sell/hold action based on this conclusion. The result is there is no one left to sell. There are always market buyers (401.K biweekly investing). So the market goes up when all thought down. Bitcoin the same...all who were selling out, sold with the FTX Sam Bankman stuff, etc. Strong hands remained. Today, WE HAVE HISTORICAL EXTREME HIGHS in the number of investors who are bearish, from measurements such as sentiment indicators, etc. Meaning, all have acted and there is no one left to sell. This is a hugely powerful force, and market correlation statistics back it up. Yes, with a VIX getting down very low, a sine-wave type selloff may occur for awhile, but most likely course of action is a huge rebound up from there. Get a VIX above 25-27 (30 or more preferred), and consider it a good buy point. R48 Yup... add: all the boomers harping on their kids...invest invest invest, max out your work contributions etc... The kids see it worked for their parents and are finally making enough money now to sock it away getting ready for their retirement.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 26, 2023 14:51:27 GMT
The Transport index is probably signaling a rough road is ahead for industrial stocks. A I seems to be supporting tech. The financial sector may have lost its support.
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Post by catdog on Apr 26, 2023 22:53:25 GMT
I sold all my stock and stock funds on November 9. It's the first time in 32 years that I have done this. The markets were making me nervous and at 68 years old decided I didn't need the stress. I yearn to get back into the equity markets for the excitement, but with fixed income returning 4.5 to 5%, I guess I can wait a little longer.
catdog
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on Apr 27, 2023 1:51:52 GMT
My Balanced PF is apparently conforming to the "going nowhere" model. Can I get some clarity on why bonds have continued to underperform in 23 + move DOWN in tandem with equities. Also in equities watching what looked to be promising new $$ in Small Cap now proving to be a poor decision. Today, I watched as solid Large Cap DIV stalwarts like VYM and SCHD tanked. And...what is the realistic probability that those who suffered major NAV losses in ST and IT bond funds aren't realizing any relief YTD, other than maybe improved div. distributions. Extremely frustrating to follow the "don't just do something, stand there" mindset but, I guess I can call it being contrarian? Sure, why not. Nothing making any sense to me in this market right now.
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 27, 2023 7:46:03 GMT
Mike, I get your post but 1) The most recommended bond index=BND made already 3.7% for the year, if it continues this way, it will easily surpass 10% for 2023. 2) SPY, the most recommended stock index is also up 6.1%, not bad too. 3) I never believed in diversification, such as SC, international or high dividend and why 2 investment giant, Bogle and Buffett recommended SPY,VOO,VTI for decades. 4) But, I also noticed that 1-2 categories can dominate LT too, and why I invest based on markets. 5) Higher dists is another myth, they are nice to have, but it is always about risk adjusted performance first.
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Post by bobfl on Apr 27, 2023 12:18:43 GMT
My Balanced PF is apparently conforming to the "going nowhere" model. Can I get some clarity on why bonds have continued to underperform in 23 + move DOWN in tandem with equities. Also in equities watching what looked to be promising new $$ in Small Cap now proving to be a poor decision. Today, I watched as solid Large Cap DIV stalwarts like VYM and SCHD tanked. And...what is the realistic probability that those who suffered major NAV losses in ST and IT bond funds aren't realizing any relief YTD, other than maybe improved div. distributions. Extremely frustrating to follow the "don't just do something, stand there" mindset but, I guess I can call it being contrarian? Sure, why not. Nothing making any sense to me in this market right now. Opinions are a dime a dozen. Here is a penny's worth. As you know, bonds (and other income producing instruments) are linked to the Fed Fund rate. They will not stabilize and move up until after the Fed stops and perhaps start cutting. So why do they move in the meantime? Now, you will see movement based on each day's news. Bonds can latch on to market sentiment and move with stocks. Example, if the market reacts down to a recession, so will debt. Although it should be the opposite (except for high yield). But recessions usually means the Fed will cut and debt moves up to match the lower rates. Stocks lag because they react to earnings. (I have seen movement up for debt from the bottom last year anticipating a pause, but it is still jittery.)
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on Apr 27, 2023 13:19:26 GMT
There is zero justification whatsoever for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates. Especially when big Oil and other industry titans are making mad money. The US economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate in the first quarter, down from 2.6% rate in the last three months of 2022 but nonetheless represented a third straight quarter of growth after output contracted in the first half of last year.
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Post by Mustang on Apr 27, 2023 13:36:41 GMT
My Balanced PF is apparently conforming to the "going nowhere" model. Can I get some clarity on why bonds have continued to underperform in 23 + move DOWN in tandem with equities. Also in equities watching what looked to be promising new $$ in Small Cap now proving to be a poor decision. Today, I watched as solid Large Cap DIV stalwarts like VYM and SCHD tanked. And...what is the realistic probability that those who suffered major NAV losses in ST and IT bond funds aren't realizing any relief YTD, other than maybe improved div. distributions. Extremely frustrating to follow the "don't just do something, stand there" mindset but, I guess I can call it being contrarian? Sure, why not. Nothing making any sense to me in this market right now. Yes, in 2022 balanced funds (or a balanced portfolio) didn't react as expected. While balanced funds offered a little protection from a falling stock market it wasn't as much as they have in the past. It was the Federal Reserves fault. Although I don't know what else they could have done considering the massive deficit spending by our elected government.
Near zero rates meant that bond yields (both government and corporate) were around historical lows. To get returns investors turned to the stock market and bid P/E ratios to historical highs. Inflation brought the house of cards down. Inflation should have been expected when our elected government pumped trillions into the economy stimulating the demand side while our supply side was shut down. Experts should have known it wasn't transitory. Unfortunately, the only tool the Federal Reserve has to fight inflation is to raise rates.
No one will buy an existing bond yielding 2% when new issues yield 5% so existing bonds drop in value. How much depends upon the length of time to maturity. The longer the time the more it drops. And with bonds paying more investors have an alternative to stocks so it is unlikely stocks will return to their historic highs. Especially when debt servicing reduces profits.
In 2022 the SP500 dropped 18.11%. Wellington (approximately 60/40) dropped 14.32% and Wellesley (approximately 40/60) dropped 9.05%. Diversified funds did protect the portfolio's value but it wasn't as much as they did in previous bear markets because of the near zero fed rates.
But I'm not just doing nothing. I'm buying more each month.
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Post by steelpony10 on Apr 27, 2023 13:39:28 GMT
There is zero justification whatsoever for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates. Especially when big Oil and other industry titans are making mad money. The US economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate in the first quarter, down from 2.6% rate in the last three months of 2022 but nonetheless represented a third straight quarter of growth after output contracted in the first half of last year. I also saw last year another Fed goal was to make sure consumer behavior was altered. In the 70’s Volcker had to crush the economy to beat inflation and alter consumer spending. This is all about not creating a lifestyle shift where consumers learn to adjust to 5% inflation. This hopefully has nothing to do with the stock market or politics. Well run companies, energy in your example, have been through all types of economies. For younger consumers this may be their first time. My opinion is it’s better to get this over with as quickly as possible by staying aggressive. I think the Fed is being to cautious.
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Post by mozart522 on Apr 27, 2023 15:10:45 GMT
With the yield curve this inverted, I don't see how we avoid a recession. I'm happy to sit on 4.8-5+% cash until it is over. Safe and sound.
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Post by bobfl on Apr 27, 2023 19:15:25 GMT
With the yield curve this inverted, I don't see how we avoid a recession. I'm happy to sit on 4.8-5+% cash until it is over. Safe and sound. "What happens to stock prices during a recession? During a recession, stock prices typically plummet. The markets can be volatile with share prices experiencing wild swings. Investors react quickly to any hint of news—either good or bad—and the flight to safety can cause some investors to pull their money out of the stock market entirely." ...Investopedia
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2023 20:09:06 GMT
I recently read an article that US consumer is still going strong and not pulling back. Employment except for tech seems good too.
While everyone is expecting an recession and corresponding stock crash.
I think raghuram rajan said sometime back that signals are too mixed to make much sense. No one has a clue.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 27, 2023 20:57:56 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2023 21:43:26 GMT
If people are defensive amd pulling money out of stock market, then why are stocks going up?
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Post by gman57 on Apr 27, 2023 21:52:59 GMT
The most accurate thing I've read online in quite awhile. ADD: Just today I've read about inflation, deflation, stagflation, the only reason stocks are going up is because they are beating expectations BUT the only reason they're beating expectations is because expectations have been lowered etc... etc.. So, yes I agree with waffle2's post.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 28, 2023 7:16:45 GMT
If people are defensive amd pulling money out of stock market, then why are stocks going up? @waffle2 , In tracking the number of stocks trading below their 50 day moving average they have been recently falling. What was a more broad base rally has become thinner with the bigger names moving upward while smaller names moving downward on their price line. If this continues then I anticipate the price line for the Index will also retreat because of a decline in breath. A lot will depend on earnings (Remember estimates have been lowered so it is easier for companies to beat expectations). In addition, the FOMC meets soon and then there is the debt ceiling debacle. I am thinking we move lower before we move into the next rally. For me, the market is dancing on a false floor and there will be a better time to buy as we move into summer. I remain 20/40/40 and nibble around the edges during stock market pullbacks with my Barometer giving a buy signal. Thus far, it has not yet produce the buy signal which I now await. Additional comment. I read this morning where BOA says sell above 4,200.
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