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Post by liftlock on Oct 18, 2023 15:50:57 GMT
I added to my position in NRGX earlier today. The discount was 15.78% as of yesterday close versus a 3 year average discount of 15.91% per CEFConnect.com. A 5% gain seems quite plausible within the next 6 months, with the possibility of 5-10% more. The downside risk of energy prices declining between now and Nov 21 when the funds converts to PDX seems low given what is going on in the middle east. I am uncertain how long it may take for the discount to narrow to that of the other PIMCO FI CEFs. It's not clear what the capital gains will be once NRGX liquidates a significant portion of it's energy holdings and that may delay some from jumping in. Then there is the question of what assets the fund will hold after November 21 and what the new distribution rate will be. I plan on holding onto my position until more of this becomes clear. If the discount stays wide it will provide an incentive for me to hold.
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Post by anitya on Oct 18, 2023 19:31:10 GMT
Pimco is a bond house. It shut its small excursions into equity years ago (it was a brief chapter in the career of Neel Kashkari, now the MN Fed Prez). NRGX looked like an odd exception and now that too is gone. NRGX SEC filing also showed ticker change from NRGX to PDX, but PDX isn't valid anywhere yet. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756908/000119312523240524/d518266d8k.htmNRGX conversion to PDX is not until November 21. Too early for PDX to be recognized at many services! "All of the changes described above will be effective on November 21, 2023 (the “Effective Date”)"
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Post by Chahta on Oct 23, 2023 11:24:47 GMT
Are we finally seeing capitulation?
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Post by richardsok on Oct 23, 2023 12:33:19 GMT
Are we finally seeing capitulation? I see no sign of one yet, Chahta -- I persist in feeling mkt direction will be event-driven instead of earnings- or valuation-driven in the next couple of days or weeks.* The sheikdoms could tighten screws at any time should IDF tanks blast into Gaza city to make the rubble bounce. (Or Hez hits from the north.) I'm largely hedged or on the sidelines, except for big energy & MLP positions. Some of the preferreds and Pimco CEFs are starting to look interesting, as does IIPR-A & TRIN for income and BITO for spec, to name a couple. Prec metals are clawing back. No surprise there. I read that Macao is opening up after Covid, which would make MSC an opportunity, despite the big debt they had to run up. (I believe their debt is fixed at low interest.) The average Chinese gambler will need a place to scratch his itch, much like ten million Americans flooded into Europe this summer. I have some distant family members living around Vancouver, bitterly telling me the young folks are absolutely priced out of the housing mkt, even with good jobs. I knew that about Calif, of course, but Canada? Who knew? *My 2 bits.
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Post by richardsok on Oct 23, 2023 14:15:11 GMT
Let me follow up on my previous post. IIPRpA is priced at 25.50. It's callable in three weeks at 25, so I wouldn't be buying now.
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Post by anitya on Oct 25, 2023 19:12:05 GMT
uncleharley, Saw your SQQQ buy. Pl share where you see SPY going in the time you might hold SQQQ. The election of Speaker was a non-event for the price action today.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 25, 2023 20:01:07 GMT
uncleharley , Saw your SQQQ buy. Pl share where you see SPY going in the time you might hold SQQQ. The election of Speaker was a non-event for the price action today. 402 appears to be the magic target for SPY. The break seems to be driven by weak earnings for high tech. Consequently, the run could go farther. Much depends on the closing trading volume today. EDIT; Closing volume did a nice spike up, indicating we will see a 5% correction in the S&P 500. A new target should have developed by then.
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Post by chang on Oct 25, 2023 20:01:39 GMT
Looks like a rough day on the Nasdaq. I've been doing absolutely nothing for months (most of the year) except rolling over T-bills. But wondering whether I ought to dribble a little into tech.
I attended a presentation today about CFS's fusion reactor project (SPARC) in Massachusetts. A lot of uncertainty for sure, but the future is still all about technology. Just wondering how best to invest in it.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 25, 2023 20:33:44 GMT
The charts I work with indicate that there is a more than 50/50 chance that the Tech sector tests the lows of March, possibly by Christmas. Much needs to be developed before or while this happens but the 10 yr treasury is beginning to project a 5.5% rate. A break above 5% on the ten yr should add clarity to the direction and velocity of domestic stocks in general. Tomorrow should be interesting.
EDIT: The financial sector as represented by XLF is also projecting a test of the march lows. Methinks there may be a problem that we have not been watching.
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 25, 2023 23:51:20 GMT
Still doing nothing for months because my portfolio of 2 funds keeps going up slowly as I like. Today one fund was flat, the other was up slightly. In a day like this, it means for me that I should keep holding.
The time to start buying is when MACD for SPY turns positive according to stock almanac.
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Post by mnfish on Oct 26, 2023 11:14:09 GMT
S&P 500 /Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) according to FRED in Q3 2023 are the same as Q4 2019. The SP500 index (4,186) is still 1,000 pts higher than Dec 2019. (3,240)
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 26, 2023 13:22:23 GMT
Mostly with dividend reinvest and compounding of a variety of yields in 4 sections, about 1.5%, 3%+,5%+ and 12%+, our cash flow has increased about 7% this year to this point.
As income investors all areas are on sale for us and I’m guessing at least 2024 and beyond will offer the same results. This looks like the golden era of income investing.
Using other styles I guess you wait and watch.
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
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Post by mani on Oct 26, 2023 15:50:21 GMT
I have some distant family members living around Vancouver, bitterly telling me the young folks are absolutely priced out of the housing mkt, even with good jobs. I knew that about Calif, of course, but Canada? Who knew? Lifestyle choices and sacrifices may let one own a home. I’d guess it may be the culture of souped up phones, latte’s and leased cars along with few home cooked meals. A second job and an old fashion starter home or condo is always an option. That might have been true a few years ago but with a MEDIAN price near 400k (good luck finding one at that price in most desirable states) and mortgages at 8%, after a 15% downpayment the monthly mortgage is $3,140 while median household income is still only ~75k/year. Unaffordable. Let's be honest. None of us has lived at worse time for first buyers (and if you believe so, show me the numbers). Latte's will not really change the equation. I believe it's temporary though. Young people need to be patient. As for Vancouver? Too many foreign buyers seem to be the big issue. The city has been unaffordable for a decade. Today? Just sold my SP500 hedges. The cash was too tempting. Hopefully not a mistake.
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Post by racqueteer on Oct 26, 2023 17:48:43 GMT
The charts I work with indicate that there is a more than 50/50 chance that the Tech sector tests the lows of March, possibly by Christmas. Interesting... I figured a decision point at 340 (QQQ), but you're thinking we could blow through the support around 310? That'd take some (additional) bad news, I would think? It's certainly not a positive that we're dropping after a UAW settlement and determining a House Speaker!
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mani
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Post by mani on Oct 26, 2023 18:12:41 GMT
mani , .. we gave up everything for several years to get an affordable payment at 9.75% and pay off college debt.* A 400k house is a vast overreach on a 75k income. Since when does anyone owe one anything they want without sacrifice on their part? * why I’m a cash flow investor, real money for real bills. 9.75% is not a problem when the houses are affordable. "A 400k house is a vast overreach on a 75k income". I wholeheartedly agree. That's the point. The cheapest house in my county right now (quite rural, lots of farmworkers so we're not talking Manhattan here) is a condo that's $299,900. That's for a 956 sqf, 2 bedroom, right along the freeway with a $3200/ year HOA. Second cheapest is 395k, a condo, 1270 sqf, 3 bedroom, right along the freeway with a $4300/ year HOA. Third cheapest is a 425k, 1 bed, 2 bath condo. Shall I go on? Unaffordable. Cutting lattes and sacrificing is not gonna cut it for most. We broke the system by being too generous with RE investors (I am one, taxation of RE property is a joke) and letting Wall Street get into SFH. I remember bidding on a house a few years ago. A young couple made an offer hoping to live there. I made an offer wanting it as an investment property. Other might have as well, I did not hear it all. Some big investor made an all cash offer and got it. The young couple never stood a chance. That's where we're at. Only even worse.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 26, 2023 18:23:00 GMT
The charts I work with indicate that there is a more than 50/50 chance that the Tech sector tests the lows of March, possibly by Christmas. Interesting... I figured a decision point at 340 (QQQ), but you're thinking we could blow through the support around 310? That'd take some (additional) bad news, I would think? It's certainly not a positive that we're dropping after a UAW settlement and determining a House Speaker! You are probably right. I just think support will be stronger near the 285/290 level. It depends on whear the bottom of the flag pole is. The moves that the 10 yr treasury rate make seems to be directing the markets. Those moves seem to depend on the perceptions that large commercial investors have about their long-term needs. JMHO! stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p00175124067&a=765323766&listNum=86
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 26, 2023 21:14:34 GMT
mani Ok I guess I don’t share the same opinion. My savings rate was very high. A house was the top thing on our to do list not even a second car. In this day and age I’d have basic cable, a cell phone each and the cloths on our back. Now I can pay cash for a house like our present one. It all started with Ramen, space age Tang and an impound car. No whining here.
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Post by Chahta on Oct 27, 2023 0:48:44 GMT
"Let's be honest. None of us has lived at worse time for first buyers (and if you believe so, show me the numbers)"
Seriously? My first venture into home ownership was in 1981 for an entry level condo. The interest rate was 15%, courtesy of Jimmy "peanut farmer" Carter.
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
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Post by mani on Oct 27, 2023 1:12:03 GMT
"Let's be honest. None of us has lived at worse time for first buyers (and if you believe so, show me the numbers)" Serioiusly? My first venture into home ownership was in 1981. The interest rate was 15%. Interest rate is only one part of the equation, the part you date. The house price is the part you marry. I just reran the numbers: Median HH income in 1981 was $17,666. That's $1,472/month. Median House price in 1981 was $60,500. At 15%rate/30yrs/15% down, that's $650/month 650/1472 = 44% Median HH income in 2023 is $74,202. That's $6,183/month. Median House price in 2023 is $430,300. At 8%rate/30yrs/15% down, that's $2,683/month 2683/6183 = 43% I guess it is a toss and both periods were ugly. I would still prefer the high rate and low price. Much easier to get aggressive and pay early as income grows.
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Post by flipperxxx on Oct 27, 2023 1:23:06 GMT
Still doing nothing for months because my portfolio of 2 funds keeps going up slowly as I like. Today one fund was flat, the other was up slightly. In a day like this, it means for me that I should keep holding. The time to start buying is when MACD for SPY turns positive according to stock almanac.
i believe at least one of your two funds went on a three-line-break sell today, if'n that signal is still part of your game plan.
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 27, 2023 3:51:34 GMT
Still doing nothing for months because my portfolio of 2 funds keeps going up slowly as I like. Today one fund was flat, the other was up slightly. In a day like this, it means for me that I should keep holding. The time to start buying is when MACD for SPY turns positive according to stock almanac.
i believe at least one of your two funds went on a three-line-break sell today, if'n that signal is still part of your game plan.
No fund of mine is anywhere close to that. I did post several times about BL, especially FAFRX, but I never owned any bank loans in 2023. Yesterday, I said "one fund was flat, the other was up slightly"...FAFRX was down yesterday.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 27, 2023 10:16:36 GMT
"Let's be honest. None of us has lived at worse time for first buyers (and if you believe so, show me the numbers)" Seriously? My first venture into home ownership was in 1981 for an entry level condo. The interest rate was 15%, courtesy of Jimmy "peanut farmer" Carter. In his defense that person may be much younger and this is all he knows. My own kids never saw mortgage rates this high. My normal was 7-9%. The two paths available are will you do something so you don’t get caught as bad again, maybe more savings compounding at higher rates or the much easier and well traveled path, this will never happen again. Stagflation and gas lines were my slap in the face.
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Post by flipperxxx on Oct 27, 2023 11:20:52 GMT
i believe at least one of your two funds went on a three-line-break sell today, if'n that signal is still part of your game plan.
No fund of mine is anywhere close to that. I did post several times about BL, especially FAFRX, but I never owned any bank loans in 2023. Yesterday, I said "one fund was flat, the other was up slightly"...FAFRX was down yesterday. No bank loan funds in 2023? Really? And I quote, from a July post elsewhere:
FD1001 @r cohn I don't predict or try to explain. The market thru charts tells me what works currently. I only care about how to make money and why I invest in uptrend funds. Rates going up, usually means bank loan bond funds should do better than other categories. I have a very concentrated portfolio, usually 2 funds. See (https://schrts.co/zUdDpiJA). As you can see FAFRX continues to do fine. Jul. 09, 2023 12:21 PM View
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 27, 2023 12:33:07 GMT
That's the beauty of my comments, they are generic. If I mentioned a fund ticker, in most cases I don't own it. But, FAFRX has been a great fund so far in 2023 and why I posted about it. It's the best performing fund at Fidelity fund screener for YTD. For years, if I used BL, I invested in EIFAX. The only constant in investing is the change with new opportunities. Attachments:
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Post by Mustang on Oct 27, 2023 14:02:20 GMT
"Let's be honest. None of us has lived at worse time for first buyers (and if you believe so, show me the numbers)" Seriously? My first venture into home ownership was in 1981 for an entry level condo. The interest rate was 15%, courtesy of Jimmy "peanut farmer" Carter.I've paid 15% interest. The interest portion of a monthly payment is far higher than the principal. Making double house payment didn't mean making double the monthly payment. It was more like 30%. Of course that is early on. At the end of the mortgage principal is the largest part.
I don't remember ever having a variable rate loan. All of my mortgages were fixed rate. The advantage of working with a small town bank is that refinancing was a flat fee, not a percent of the loan. For a different house, with slightly lower interest rates, when rates started dropping we refinanced our house twice in 18 months. We have always operated off a budget so even though it lowered the required payment we kept paying the same to pay off the loan early. We paid off a 30 year loan in 16 years.
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Post by archer on Oct 27, 2023 15:49:47 GMT
And old timer I worked with when I was young told me after WW2 50 year loans were available. The beauty of the long term loans is that as Mustang posted, they can be paid off early, and making larger payments early in the loan puts most of that into reducing total interest.
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Post by anitya on Oct 27, 2023 16:36:27 GMT
If anyone knows SCHD intimately, please post why it is down too much today. I do not need dismissive comments.
P.S. I do not enough and it is stuck in my taxable account but it is part of my inter-market watch list.
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
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Post by mani on Oct 27, 2023 16:42:02 GMT
If anyone knows SCHD intimately, please post why it is down too much today. I do not need dismissive comments. P.S. I do not enough and it is stuck in my taxable account but it is part of my inter-market watch list. Many of the top 10 holdings are getting hit today. www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/schd/portfolioABBVIE: -5.5% CVX: -5.7%...
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Post by habsui on Oct 27, 2023 17:33:01 GMT
That's the beauty of my comments, they are generic. If I mentioned a fund ticker, in most cases I don't own it. But, FAFRX has been a great fund so far in 2023 and why I posted about it. It's the best performing fund at Fidelity fund screener for YTD. For years, if I used BL, I invested in EIFAX. The only constant in investing is the change with new opportunities. All I can say (generically), NVDA..
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Post by Norbert on Oct 27, 2023 17:55:08 GMT
That's the beauty of my comments, they are generic. If I mentioned a fund ticker, in most cases I don't own it. But, FAFRX has been a great fund so far in 2023 and why I posted about it. It's the best performing fund at Fidelity fund screener for YTD. For years, if I used BL, I invested in EIFAX. The only constant in investing is the change with new opportunities. All I can say (generically), NVDA.. I'm with FD. If your goal is to impress strangers on the Internet, you NEVER get specific and ALWAYS post your trades after the fact. No exceptions. I also do approve of phrases like: "The only constant in investing is the change with new opportunities." That's brilliant! 🙄
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