|
Post by archer on Sept 29, 2023 21:47:52 GMT
BB is very glitchy today and I am getting a lot of Server Error pop ups. archer , "[F]avorite commentator is ambivalent" Is it Tom Bowley? Yes, but his last commentary was b4 the market opening on 9/27, and is only ambivalent short term, and more bullish for the 4th 1/4 IIRC.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Sept 29, 2023 22:03:57 GMT
Meanwhile, I'm all in with 5.3% no risk MM, which may well go higher and will likely stay there for at least a year. If the market does tank at some point, and rates start to come down, intermediate and LT bonds, will be on my plate. and if it tanks a lot (25+%) I'll start looking at equities, but not until. To me, the market is just not that simple or easy to invest in. The market doesn't ring-a-bell and say buy now. By the time interest rates "start to come down", bond markets will likely have already priced in that event, and have gone up handsomely in price. Further, consider the opportunity risk you are stating. That is, you will not look at equities until the market "tanks a lot, down 25%". So, what if interest rates stay same as today or higher (after all this was the typical rate level up until financial crisis) AND if inflation stays moderate at 3-5% ranges (or real heavy inflation), and stock market continues to rise from here, reflecting the earnings gains due inflation and product pricing power. Will you be left behind...forever? I can't take that risk for me. And with severe inflation, stocks are the savior; not bonds. R48
|
|
|
Post by liftlock on Sept 30, 2023 0:05:34 GMT
Candle analysis is a relatively new interest of mine, so I don't have a lot of sources. Most of my exploring has been from investopedia, and following links to more of their articles. Maybe UH can recommend some other sources. He has mentioned candles from time to time. There are probably some good vids on Youtube if you do a search there. Try the Chart School at Stockcharts. Check out the resources at the Candlestick forum. Steve Bigelo is well regarded by those who follow him.
|
|
|
Post by liftlock on Sept 30, 2023 0:10:53 GMT
Candle analysis is a relatively new interest of mine, so I don't have a lot of sources. Most of my exploring has been from investopedia, and following links to more of their articles. Maybe UH can recommend some other sources. He has mentioned candles from time to time. There are probably some good vids on Youtube if you do a search there. Try the Chart School at Stockcharts. Check out the resources at the candlestick forum. Steve Bigalow, the founder, is well regarded among those who follow him. candlestickforum.com
|
|
|
Post by liftlock on Sept 30, 2023 0:36:37 GMT
anitya I've performed numerous efficient frontier analysis of a variety of portfolios with various tickers. Over most time periods, I've found that JQUA is a good component of portfolio with risks levels that I desire. Notice though that it's not a major component. However, it does play a consistent role with some robustness. Here is a typical diagram: View AttachmentJPMorgan Hedge Equity I | JHEQX | 53% | River Canyon Total Return Bond | RCTIX | 16% | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | BRK.B | 13% | PIMCO Energy & Tactical Credit Opps | NRGX | 5% | S&P Global Inc. | SPGI | 5% | Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value | AVUV | 4% | JP Morgan US Quality Factor | JQUA | 4% |
Currently, JQUA is 1% of my gross portfolio. I like your efficient frontier chart. It looks like you will have to find a substitute for NRGX. Pimco just announced that it is being converted to another multisector income fund. The Fund will be renamed “PIMCO Dynamic Income Strategy Fund” and its New York Stock Exchange ticker symbol will be “PDX”. www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/product-resources/cef-press-releasesNRGX has been on a tear this week. Rising NAV and rising market price, partially due expected narrowing of the discount. I hold a large position am disappointed to see the fund's allocation energy being reduced to 25%.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Sept 30, 2023 5:52:00 GMT
Try the Chart School at Stockcharts. Check out the resources at the Candlestick forum. Steve Bigelo is well regarded by those who follow him. Thanks. Are these the right weblinks? If not, please reply with the correct sources. www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5tF1-1p4rscandlestickforum.com/
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Sept 30, 2023 6:08:16 GMT
68 ETFs launched in Sept, an all-time record and this doesn't incl the nine eth futures ETFs (which technically launch in Oct).
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Sept 30, 2023 10:47:04 GMT
X/Twitter rumors were that the the SEC rushed to approve several futures-based Ethereum ETFs (such Bitcoin futures ETFs already exist) AHEAD of the Government shutdown and to deflect from the real problem/criticism of its delays/denials of physical/spot cryptos ETFs. It seems that the SEC staff even called the firms to get quick last minute updates - something that almost never happens. Gensler/SEC is under lot of Congressional and industry pressures to show that he is doing something.
|
|
|
Post by liftlock on Sept 30, 2023 12:35:43 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 30, 2023 13:37:09 GMT
I've performed numerous efficient frontier analysis of a variety of portfolios with various tickers. Over most time periods, I've found that JQUA is a good component of portfolio with risks levels that I desire. Notice though that it's not a major component. However, it does play a consistent role with some robustness. Here is a typical diagram: View AttachmentJPMorgan Hedge Equity I | JHEQX | 53% | River Canyon Total Return Bond | RCTIX | 16% | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | BRK.B | 13% | PIMCO Energy & Tactical Credit Opps | NRGX | 5% | S&P Global Inc. | SPGI | 5% | Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value | AVUV | 4% | JP Morgan US Quality Factor | JQUA | 4% |
Currently, JQUA is 1% of my gross portfolio. Is there a program that calculates the EF line, with your input fund information? How do you select the EF line you want? Do you keep inputting different funds/percentages to get the EF line you want?
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Sept 30, 2023 13:45:55 GMT
No change for this trader. 99+% invested in just 2 bond funds for months now. Both funds have a nice smooth uptrend + hardly any volatility, an excellent performance, and September was another great month. When risk is "normal" according to my indicators, which it has been since 11/2022, it usually means MM is less than 1%. Basically, if my funds continue to show the above I disregard everything else. I find it fascinating that these bond funds continue upward while rates have been going up. It's all about taking advantage of what markets tell/give you. Example, while RCTIX has been a good Multi bond fund within its category, it lags the top bond funds by a lot + RCTIX had much higher volatility YTD.
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Sept 30, 2023 14:40:48 GMT
Chahta , Here a link to the tool that I use: www.portfoliovisualizer.com/efficient-frontierI set it to "Robust Optimization". Depending on the tickers or assets selected, it produces a curve: The Efficient Frontier. Of course, this is backwards looking so you may select varying time frames and get different results. Also, some tickers have limited history, so that may constrain the analysis. So, I just play around with differing tickers and time frames before I eventually found a good combination. No point including tickers that consistently get muscled out by other tickers. I'll probably be most comfortable with a standard deviation between 10 to 12.5%. This is of course, just a tool to aid in designing efficient portfolios.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Oct 1, 2023 2:27:01 GMT
Fearchar : "I'll probably be most comfortable with a standard deviation between 10 to 12.5%. This is of course, just a tool to aid in designing efficient portfolios." I am curious how mine might stack up. Didn't realize it is part of Portfolio Visualizer. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Oct 2, 2023 16:25:35 GMT
uncleharley , have you seen XLU price action today? Down 5+%. XLE down 2.2%. TLT down only 1.6%. 10 yr Treasury is not even at 4.75% and XLU is below $56. I can fathom 10 yr going to 5%. What is the next potential downside target for XLU? It surprises me why XLU is dropping like a stone but QQQ is now immune to rising 10 yr rates? Different set of investors that target each of those equities? In the recent draw down XLU lost many times that of TLT.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Oct 2, 2023 16:40:42 GMT
The Next potential downside target for XLU is $54, then $51, then $46. I would not make a call until longer term rates level off. Most investors that are interested in utilities are interested in safe dividends which vary with longer term treasury rates. The Q's are dominated by high tech and the investors in them react to tech development headlines, emotions, and dreams. And/or squiggles on a chart which track those emotions.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Oct 2, 2023 17:08:10 GMT
The Next potential downside target for XLU is $54, then $51, then $46. I would not make a call until longer term rates level off. Most investors that are interested in utilities are interested in safe dividends which vary with longer term treasury rates. The Q's are dominated by high tech and the investors in them react to tech development headlines, emotions, and dreams. And/or squiggles on a chart. Thank you very much. XLU is going to be such a TLH candidate this year, it may be a while for an upturn. I am going to target this for my Roth IRA, which I normally reserve for high beta. I remember your original guidance was also anchored to 10 yr. P.S.: when the time comes and long term rates level off, I may turn out to be completely wrong. May be TLT will become a better investment than XLU. YTD TLT loss 10% vs 20% for XLU but TLT Div yield is so much more than XLU.
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Oct 2, 2023 20:11:28 GMT
Observation: Value did much worse than growth and it's not getting better.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Oct 2, 2023 20:16:26 GMT
The Next potential downside target for XLU is $54, then $51, then $46. I would not make a call until longer term rates level off. Most investors that are interested in utilities are interested in safe dividends which vary with longer term treasury rates. The Q's are dominated by high tech and the investors in them react to tech development headlines, emotions, and dreams. And/or squiggles on a chart. Thank you very much. XLU is going to be such a TLH candidate this year, it may be a while for an upturn. I am going to target this for my Roth IRA, which I normally reserve for high beta. I remember your original guidance was also anchored to 10 yr. P.S.: when the time comes and long term rates level off, I may turn out to be completely wrong. May be TLT will become a better investment than XLU. YTD TLT loss 10% vs 20% for XLU but TLT Div yield is so much more than XLU. FWIW: TNX closed today at a new 15 yr high with the 10 yr rate breaking above trendline and the short-term trend becoming mildly parabolic.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Oct 2, 2023 21:34:43 GMT
Thank you very much. XLU is going to be such a TLH candidate this year, it may be a while for an upturn. I am going to target this for my Roth IRA, which I normally reserve for high beta. I remember your original guidance was also anchored to 10 yr. P.S.: when the time comes and long term rates level off, I may turn out to be completely wrong. May be TLT will become a better investment than XLU. YTD TLT loss 10% vs 20% for XLU but TLT Div yield is so much more than XLU. FWIW: TNX closed today at a new 15 yr high with the 10 yr rate breaking above trendline and the short-term trend becoming mildly parabolic. You are right. It was in a clear channel since April 19th and broke above the channel on Wednesday last week but Thursday and Friday price action gave some hope that it will come back into the channel but today's price action dashed that hope. Thanks for pointing that out. By the time these rates level off, something could break along the way that buying long bonds at that time may be a better bet than wading into XLU.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Oct 4, 2023 20:19:53 GMT
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Oct 4, 2023 21:45:19 GMT
From buying and selling JEPI three times, I can say that they work well in extended sideways markets, which makes sense because the upside is capped and no protection for downside (other than the nominal yield cushion from option premiums). JEPI port specifically has some idiosyncrasy vs SPY, including sector weighting limitations and so, performance can be skewed by that as well relative to SPY. Have not owned any other covered call strategies. BTW, one can write calls on JEPI itself. please share anything else you discover about these strategies.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Oct 5, 2023 0:33:33 GMT
I have been posting for past year and a half, that I would not invest in Utilities. Long story why. I must be a broken record to some. Consider this: I would not want to be a CEO of a Utility for the next decade. Ask yourself why. Start with a simple thing like capital spending. Good heavens, interest rates skyrocketing; sell shares to get capital, and it will not have a good return for a decade of construction; try to raise the dividend and regulators and Senator Warren will be all over you; you're stock divy is competing with higher and longer money market fund and treasury bond interest rates far above utility dividend; try to raise rates, customers squawk/regulator do not authorize. Yet the CEO is asked to reconfigure a utility for alternative energy, at a time energy needs/demand are growing faster than utes can supply, unless use oil/gas power...and so on. Witness the Maui utility that couldn't spend to cut the dry grass, cause had to fund a 100% alternative energy goal mandated by gvt for it, in next decade. Some call this stuff "Bidenomics" R48 Sorry...I did not mean to bring the sky down on utilities this fast!! Whew. R48
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Oct 5, 2023 2:00:24 GMT
I have been posting for past year and a half, that I would not invest in Utilities. Long story why. I must be a broken record to some. Consider this: I would not want to be a CEO of a Utility for the next decade. Ask yourself why. Start with a simple thing like capital spending. Good heavens, interest rates skyrocketing; sell shares to get capital, and it will not have a good return for a decade of construction; try to raise the dividend and regulators and Senator Warren will be all over you; you're stock divy is competing with higher and longer money market fund and treasury bond interest rates far above utility dividend; try to raise rates, customers squawk/regulator do not authorize. Yet the CEO is asked to reconfigure a utility for alternative energy, at a time energy needs/demand are growing faster than utes can supply, unless use oil/gas power...and so on. Witness the Maui utility that couldn't spend to cut the dry grass, cause had to fund a 100% alternative energy goal mandated by gvt for it, in next decade. Some call this stuff "Bidenomics" R48 Sorry...I did not mean to bring the sky down on utilities this fast!! Whew. R48 Not to worry. the intraday chart strongly suggests that the Utes bottomed yesterday. We shall see.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Oct 5, 2023 11:31:30 GMT
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Oct 5, 2023 14:46:32 GMT
yogibearbull , 20 P/E bothered me but if we are at 14, what is there to sneeze about. Reversion to mean is actually reversion through mean in practice. Utilities are effected by input costs: borrowing costs and energy prices. I have not heard a coherent set of reasons for long term rates backing up recently. Is it just positioning? Oil prices are currently under geopolitical negotiations. If the 2010s' below trend growth returns, that would help the Fed’s fight and likely the utilities as well.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Oct 5, 2023 18:11:21 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 20:32:17 GMT
Hmmm... where did all these buyers came from ?
|
|
|
Post by habsui on Oct 6, 2023 21:23:53 GMT
They used their double secret trading method..
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Oct 6, 2023 21:36:11 GMT
Longer term bonds when the Government starts slowing down its spending and does not need to issue as many treasuries as it's been dong to finance the deficit.
With 2024 an election year, slashing spending is unlikely. So, peak rates won't be until well beyond then.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Oct 6, 2023 22:25:56 GMT
They used their double secret trading method.. Good grief....we have discussed this before. The bonds they buy (most of them) are at the end of their life. The payments have been made up until that point so the manager has high confidence they are "money-good".
|
|