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Post by richardsok on Feb 22, 2023 20:47:40 GMT
I opened a position in TQQQ today at $22.67. I see very little downside risk and a potential 50% gain with leverage over the intermediate term. OK, harley. Wanna play in the demo derby? I'll call you with my UNG buy at $ 7.50.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 22, 2023 21:04:07 GMT
I opened a position in TQQQ today at $22.67. I see very little downside risk and a potential 50% gain with leverage over the intermediate term. OK, harley. Wanna play in the demo derby? I'll call you with my UNG buy at $ 7.50. Sure. Are there any rules?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2023 21:14:15 GMT
OK, harley. Wanna play in the demo derby? I'll call you with my UNG buy at $ 7.50. Sure. Are there any rules? So, you are both going to post your sells and/or additions in (close to) realtime? That should be interesting.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 22, 2023 21:55:54 GMT
Sure. Are there any rules? So, you are both going to post your sells and/or additions in (close to) realtime? That should be interesting. I would not assume that or anything else. Fwiw I post my buys and sells in real time anyway.
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Post by richardsok on Feb 22, 2023 22:55:00 GMT
So, you are both going to post your sells and/or additions in (close to) realtime? That should be interesting. I would not assume that or anything else. Fwiw I post my buys and sells in real time anyway. I suggest...... 1. For the game purposes there can be no added buys or partial sells. Any additional buys one might make are not counted. The first reported buy price is the only one that counts for the game purposes. Any sell, however small, ends the game for that player at that sell price. 2. If no trades are made, the game ends on May 1st. Whoever has the higher PERCENTAGE gain, wins. If both players are in the red, game ends as a draw. (Since we are dealing with real money, I do not want anyone to make a stressed trade merely for the game. There can be no penalty for using one's best judgment.) 3. Prize: The loser agrees to address the winner as "M'Lord" until May 30. (No avoiding the penalty by simply refusing to post. Loser MUST post at least once per week during May.)
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Post by archer on Feb 23, 2023 0:20:31 GMT
I remember in the old M* forum days we had an annual PF contest with it's own thread. Perhaps this warrants it's own thread as well now that we have 8 posts on the idea, and we are kind of off topic. I might be down for joining in, but likely not until March 1, but for the sake of rules we should begin on the same date to be fair.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 23, 2023 1:05:23 GMT
I would not assume that or anything else. Fwiw I post my buys and sells in real time anyway. I suggest...... 1. For the game purposes there can be no added buys or partial sells. Any additional buys one might make are not counted. The first reported buy price is the only one that counts for the game purposes. Any sell, however small, ends the game for that player at that sell price. 2. If no trades are made, the game ends on May 1st. Whoever has the higher PERCENTAGE gain, wins. If both players are in the red, game ends as a draw. (Since we are dealing with real money, I do not want anyone to make a stressed trade merely for the game. There can be no penalty for using one's best judgment.) 3. Prize: The loser agrees to address the winner as "M'Lord" until May 30. (No avoiding the penalty by simply refusing to post. Loser MUST post at least once per week during May.) I am good with those rules.
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Post by chang on Feb 23, 2023 5:45:18 GMT
Moved these posts from the BSW thread, which clearly cannot support a contest running within it. Virtual contests are great, go for it. Feel free to keep this thread, or start a new one.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 23, 2023 12:16:30 GMT
Should we post progress once a week, just to keep this thread from dying before May?
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Post by Fearchar on Feb 23, 2023 14:36:52 GMT
Looks like UNG is 2.4% ahead.
M'Lords
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Post by Fearchar on Feb 23, 2023 14:52:26 GMT
Yikes.
These guys move fast. UNG ahead over 5%
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Post by richardsok on Feb 23, 2023 17:23:34 GMT
Should we post progress once a week, just to keep this thread from dying before May? good idea.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 24, 2023 21:59:26 GMT
I am down .96% so far. Yes that is a decimal point.
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Post by fritzo489 on Feb 24, 2023 22:47:07 GMT
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Post by archer on Mar 1, 2023 0:01:28 GMT
richardsok, How much upside potential do you see for UNG technically? I was actually going to buy some KOLD on momentum a week or so ago when I saw you bought UNG. Your buy gave me pause fortunately.
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Post by richardsok on Mar 1, 2023 2:03:58 GMT
richardsok , How much upside potential do you see for UNG technically? I was actually going to buy some KOLD on momentum a week or so ago when I saw you bought UNG. Your buy gave me pause fortunately. archie -- Respectfully --- I'd really like to get into yr question but note that FD was taken to the woodshed recently for repeating his theories and suspect the same awaits me if I go down a similar road. My shortest answer is to suggest you read my book and then we can talk specifics. I can add -- Although I believe in the basics of TA, I suspect the higher one gets into detailed ramifications of its "science" the closer the practice approaches astrology.... so I don;t pretend to have any idea how high UNG might go, and for all I know, KOLD might become the buy of the decade. I don't mean to be sarcastic; only to note patience is apt to become justifiably thin around here if I keep repeating my basic trading notions.
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Post by archer on Mar 1, 2023 5:59:23 GMT
Understood Richard. I did read your book and have a good handle on your approach to Low-vol. I think UNG falls falls outside that category. I'll check out your book again. I'm sure there is much I am not remembering.
As for the woodshed, hopefully our members here would make the distinction between solicited and unsolicited trading strategy. But, you never know. Unfortunately forums don't always bring out the best in us, so I respect your caution.
So far your accent to lordship is looking pretty good :-)
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Post by chang on Mar 1, 2023 6:23:04 GMT
richardsok : you’re not remotely close to skating on thin ice. No problem whatsoever with Q&A about T/A and trading. For the record, private communications usually take place when behavioral “issues” arise here, and moderation/action is a last resort. Nobody should feel like they’re walking on eggshells. Like porn, we all know a problem when we see it.
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Post by richardsok on Mar 1, 2023 12:39:29 GMT
Understood Richard. I did read your book and have a good handle on your approach to Low-vol. I think UNG falls falls outside that category. I'll check out your book again. I'm sure there is much I am not remembering. As for the woodshed, hopefully our members here would make the distinction between solicited and unsolicited trading strategy. But, you never know. Unfortunately forums don't always bring out the best in us, so I respect your caution. So far your accent to lordship is looking pretty good :-) With chang's go-ahead, I can say a few words on yr question. (And thanks for reading the book, archie.) 1. UNG was certainly not on my "list" of D-VolT tradeables, but the list is continuously evolving and scan as I might, I never come up with the same list twice. Its one-month chart looks pretty ugly indeed, but scan the 3-month or the 6-month (either with two-day intervals) and you get a long and beautiful bearish slide.... right until there is clear support just a few days ago. I was almost startled by how beautiful the 3- and 6-month charts were -- so long as I deployed a "bleach out" effect underneath the visible moving averages or applied 2-D intervals on thinkorswim. 2. Back to basics -- other than a firmly set "resistance level" or "support level" in the past (if any have occurred), I eschew any "predictive" power others see (or claim to see) in technical analysis. I deal only with the rudimentary basics -- so when a new trend begins in a deep volatility asset, you only know you have a reasonably favorable probability the new trend will continue for some unknown period of time -- not how long, or how high, the trend will continue. UNG's new trend may end tomorrow or it may continue into May. I am agnostic in my opinion on its top -- I only focus on what it is doing now. Further, I do not trust myself to have an opinion when it is time to sell -- I permit cold, impartial signals to protect me from my biases and emotions. 3. As it is, UNG gave me a preliminary buy on 2/22 and double confirming buys the 24th (both the PPS and the P-SAR on the same day.) I hope to ride so long as the signals maintain, but it might all blow to flinders tomorrow.... and if it does, I'll be out when the sigs indicate. 4. As we are still very early in our Demo, I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE I'll end up profitably -- I am only certain that I will not have a large loss and that, over time, my wins will be more numerous than my losses. Hope this helped.
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Post by richardsok on Mar 1, 2023 16:33:10 GMT
Sold UNG @ 9.02 this morning. CB: 7.50 Gain: 20%
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 1, 2023 17:07:30 GMT
Thanks Richard,
Was that based on specific technical signals?
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Post by richardsok on Mar 1, 2023 17:29:06 GMT
Thanks Richard, Was that based on specific technical signals? No, I still have good signals, but I figured it was enough for a decent chance to beat harley. (The truth is I sold only half my position, but our rules make the first sale, however small, the one that counts.) I didn't want the game to influence me, but it has -- so now that he has a clear goal to aim for, we'll see what happens on uncle's side. Should be interesting.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 1, 2023 18:32:03 GMT
FWIW; My projection indicates that by the end of March, the price of TQQQ should have reached about 27.5 which will give me a gain of about 22%. That projection is based on Technical indications that the NDX is in a bullish trend and the price will soon be rising. The specific target of 27.5 is based on the location of a confluence of technical resistance indicators. Namely the 50% FIBO retracement level, a recent high, & a volume by price point. That does not mean that I expect the Q's to top out at that level, they may very well go higher. That does mean that I intend to hold my position until we reach that level although I retain the right to change my mind if current conditions change. I am currently at a 4.29% loss.
Added by Edit; Based on a pivot point on the weekly chart & the high of last August, I expect TQQQ to reach $40 by july or august.
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Post by richardsok on Mar 1, 2023 19:54:27 GMT
You use tools MUCH more sophisticated than mine, harley. Doubly interesting is that I have 20% and you're aiming for 22% ! I'll be watching this with much interest, doubtful to be sure, yet with interest. Good luck.
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Post by Norbert on Mar 1, 2023 21:41:51 GMT
Thanks for the detailed explanations and real-time buy/sell posts. Good stuff! This is my favorite kind of investing forum thread.
Hope to participate actively in the future, but am still on the road for now.
🇦🇺
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2023 23:22:43 GMT
FWIW; My projection indicates that by the end of March, the price of TQQQ should have reached about 27.5 which will give me a gain of about 22%. That projection is based on Technical indications that the NDX is in a bullish trend and the price will soon be rising. The specific target of 27.5 is based on the location of a confluence of technical resistance indicators. Namely the 50% FIBO retracement level, a recent high, & a volume by price point. That does not mean that I expect the Q's to top out at that level, they may very well go higher. That does mean that I intend to hold my position until we reach that level although I retain the right to change my mind if current conditions change. I am currently at a 4.29% loss. Added by Edit; Based on a pivot point on the weekly chart & the high of last August, I expect TQQQ to reach $40 by july or august. Based on your confidence, I decided that this is as good of a time as any to exchange 2023 Roth MMF dollars to Nasdaq adjacent investments. More of a memory jogger really, as a long term investment, the timing of the exchange is likely not overly impactful.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2023 23:25:03 GMT
Sold UNG @ 9.02 this morning. CB: 7.50 Gain: 20% Nice! In your shoes, I would've sold too.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 2, 2023 21:53:35 GMT
That was the strongest Friday afternoon the NDX has had in a month. My trading position is now down 2.46% since inception.
Edit; OOPs, its thursday.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 3, 2023 21:12:29 GMT
Happy fridays usually come in bull markets. TQQQ is now up 3.49% since I bought it.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 9, 2023 19:06:37 GMT
O K M'Lord. TQQQ dropped thru my stop and the position sold for 22.38. By my calculation that is a 1.2% loss.
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