TQQQ - UNG "Demo Derby"

[richardsok]

OK. Game over.

Post mortem:

(1) Harley -- Fascinating (for me) post you wrote on March 1st, "My projections indicate .... based on Technical indications that the NDX is in a bullish trend and the price will soon be rising....confluence of technical resistance indicators. Namely the 50% FIBO retracement level, a recent high, & a volume by price point..... Based on a pivot point on the weekly chart & the high of last August, I expect TQQQ to reach $40 by july or august. "

Most people, I think, have a handle on my method but I've never seen a walk-thru of your thinking. If you're up for it, I would REALLY appreciate a post (or a couple of posts) where you take us through your process. I don't think anyone works so meticulously. (I'm OK if you decline -- I'm probably asking you to write a chapter of a book.)

(2) I'm mystified why you sold today. On Mar 2 you were down 2.4% yet remained in the game and rallied, but bailed today down a mere 1.2%. What changed? 

(3) The game was a surprise in ending so quickly. I originally anticipated the penalty would last May 1 thru May 30 -- seems poor form to hold now to a rule that should have said "30 days". I suggest we go by the intent of the penalty rule rather than its mis-written wording. Mar 9 thru April 9 works for me.

(4)   The game ended on an exceptionally violent day.  I don't think any conclusion can be drawn on your trades vs. mine.   

[Deleted]

Agreed, that no conclusion should be drawn from a single trade. It was a fun little diversion.

I think Richard picked a winner. And UH, made a wise choice not letting this competition influence his better judgment and cutting bait.

What I really appreciate is that both of you have acknowledged the pros/cons and limitations of TA. That it may provide "an edge", but that it is hardly a foolproof "system". I think that it would take many trades over time to be any real kind of test. Thanks to both of you for the entertainment, and not taking it too seriously.

[uncleharley]

Yes, M'Lord, I would not draw any conclusions on your trade versus my trade. We both took aggressive positions at a time that, on hindsight proved to be risky. 3/9 thru 4/9 for the penalty seems reasonable to me and I humbly thank you for your generosity. #2; What changed?? My mind changed. At the time that I made that post I fully expected to see the markets rally to or past their August highs. I began to question that idea on monday & tues and set a stop loss. Todays sell-off closed the trade. I'll have to give some thought to how I do things before I can explain them. The thinking will probably benefit me so I will work on your request.

[fritzo489]

Sad to see the "game" end. I checked UNG & see it closed at $8.24 .

[uncleharley]

After some reflection about my trade, it appears to me that I broke a rule that I try hard to follow. That rule is that one makes money when one follows the market, not when one tries to lead or anticipate it. The QQQ's track the Nasdaq 100. At the time of my purchase the NDX was trending hard toward a golden cross, while other indexes had made the cross. If I had followed my own rules, I would have waited until the NDX had made its cross before purchasing the shares in a 3X leveraged ETF that tracks it. Greed and foolishness caused the loss. It remains to be seen if some measure of humulity will eliminate the problem. BTW, Rule #1 remains, Be on the right side of the market.

[uncleharley]

M'Lord, should we go my cash against the last 1/2 of your UNG? Just Kidding!!! Bad Idea.

[fritzo489]

uncleharley, Triple short a better play. Hindsight always works.

Will we be seeing round two any time soon ?

[uncleharley]

Mar 10, 2023 18:41:03 GMT fritzo489 said:

uncleharley , Triple short a better play. Hindsight always works.

Will we be seeing round two any time soon ?

no.  Contests are a distraction that I do not need.