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Post by richardsok on Apr 1, 2023 2:01:32 GMT
"We're going from financial contagion to economic contagion..." "I worry less about a banking crisis than I do about the consequences of what we've already seen." --El Erian I'm trying to figure out what he meant. Here's the interview.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCUBnCVH-9
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Post by nobhead on Apr 1, 2023 2:05:12 GMT
"I worry less about a banking crisis than I do about the consequences of what we've already seen." --El Erian I'm trying to figure out what he meant by that. Here's the interview.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCUBnCVH-9richardsok, I get that the video is no longer available.
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 1, 2023 2:56:39 GMT
"I worry less about a banking crisis than I do about the consequences of what we've already seen." --El Erian I'm trying to figure out what he meant by that. Here's the interview.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCUBnCVH-9richardsok , I get that the video is no longer available.
Try this link
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 1, 2023 2:57:34 GMT
"We're going from financial contagion to economic contagion..." "I worry less about a banking crisis than I do about the consequences of what we've already seen." --El Erian I'm trying to figure out what he meant. Here's the interview.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCUBnCVH-9 Correct link
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 1, 2023 11:40:55 GMT
"We're going from financial contagion to economic contagion..." "I worry less about a banking crisis than I do about the consequences of what we've already seen." --El Erian I'm trying to figure out what he meant. Here's the interview.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCUBnCVH-9 Correct linkEl-Erian is a very complex thinker that we may not be able to fully understand until more situations develop. At least part of what he is talking about is the speed at which things happen now versus a couple decades ago and the slow reactions to those incidents. The global movement by Central Banks to diversify their reserves may have unanticipated impacts on the global economy that go beyond the Banking sector, might be an example.
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Post by Fearchar on Apr 1, 2023 11:50:21 GMT
My impression is that he is referring to depositors being skittish for a long time and consequently Banks will have to tighten their standards.
The result will be a economic slowdown.
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Post by fishingrod on Apr 1, 2023 12:02:09 GMT
I think El-Erian is talking about Bank lenders having to restrict their lending and higher their standards for lending. Therefore causing an economic slowdown caused by lending crisis.
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 1, 2023 12:38:35 GMT
The Fed has opened a special line of credit for banks to borrow from in the event there is an unanticipated run on their deposits. Many banks took advantage of that facility during the aftermath of SVB/SBNY failures. And they continue to do so.
That is safety net for the banks. Plus if certain other banks get in trouble the Fed will take the LT assets on to Fed's balance sheet and make $ available.
So.. I am not buying the economic contagion theory.
I think it is more of the companies shying away from borrowing due to high interest rates - and as soon as the Fed sees that they would start cutting interest rates.
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Post by newtecher on Apr 1, 2023 12:59:41 GMT
The Fed has opened a special line of credit for banks to borrow from in the event there is an unanticipated run on their deposits. Many banks took advantage of that facility during the aftermath of SVB/SBNY failures. And they continue to do so. That is safety net for the banks. Plus if certain other banks get in trouble the Fed will take the LT assets on to Fed's balance sheet and make $ available. So.. I am not buying the economic contagion theory. I think it is more of the companies shying away from borrowing due to high interest rates - and as soon as the Fed sees that they would start cutting interest rates. These are not independent factors. High interest rates will likely lead to a recession. The expectation of recession means more credit risk going forward and tighter lending standards.
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 1, 2023 15:33:21 GMT
The Fed has opened a special line of credit for banks to borrow from in the event there is an unanticipated run on their deposits. Many banks took advantage of that facility during the aftermath of SVB/SBNY failures. And they continue to do so. That is safety net for the banks. Plus if certain other banks get in trouble the Fed will take the LT assets on to Fed's balance sheet and make $ available. So.. I am not buying the economic contagion theory. I think it is more of the companies shying away from borrowing due to high interest rates - and as soon as the Fed sees that they would start cutting interest rates. These are not independent factors. High interest rates will likely lead to a recession. The expectation of recession means more credit risk going forward and tighter lending standards. newtecher, the long awaited recession may not arrive due to the artificial financial engineering by the Fed over the last 14 years. The analogy is a patient in the hospital with a whole bunch of ailments, but the vitals are maintained perfectly using medicines. I do not see a recession on the horizon this year, and also not next year given it is the presidential election year. That is my base case.
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Post by newtecher on Apr 2, 2023 4:27:57 GMT
I do not see a recession on the horizon this year, and also not next year given it is the presidential election year. That is my base case. That is clear and testable prediction. We shall see. I think a recession is quite likely this year. Say, 80% probability.
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Post by mnfish on Apr 5, 2023 11:20:35 GMT
"BOA...expects the S&P 500 to slump to 3,800 points by March 8 — a decline of more than 7% from Thursday’s close — after the benchmark failed to break through a ceiling of 4,200 points." From a post on Feb 18. On March 10 it closed at 3,861. Since the OP on Feb 8 it is down to 3,971 from 4,117. A year ago it was 4,602. IMHO, it takes a long time to land a jumbo jet. "Are Golden Crosses Reliable Indicators?" "As a lagging indicator, a golden cross is identified only after the market has risen, which makes it seem reliable. However, as a result of the lag, it is also difficult to know when the signal is a false one until after the fact." So, we should know in a year or so. A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that. uncleharley - From an article - quoting someone named Luke Lango - "This Super Golden Cross signal was just triggered last month, for the ninth time in history and the first time since 2009, when stocks proceeded to soar as much as 32% over the following year." "It is triggered only when a convincing golden cross happens after a long bear market. Specifically, the Super Golden Cross is triggered only when the 50-day crosses above the 200-day MA and stays above it for at least three days, after spending at least nine months below it." "Between 1950 and 2022, this Super Golden Cross signal was triggered only eight times. All eight times, it marked the end of a bear market and the beginning of a new bull market." "Infallible" I guess it happened on Feb 6 and other times markets were up an average of 24% one year later with a high of 41%(beginning 9/30/82) and a low of 9%(beginning 5/24/78). I hope so, as I'm still about 70% stocks.
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Post by richardsok on Apr 5, 2023 12:37:43 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 5, 2023 19:03:18 GMT
A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that. uncleharley - From an article - quoting someone named Luke Lango - "This Super Golden Cross signal was just triggered last month, for the ninth time in history and the first time since 2009, when stocks proceeded to soar as much as 32% over the following year." "It is triggered only when a convincing golden cross happens after a long bear market. Specifically, the Super Golden Cross is triggered only when the 50-day crosses above the 200-day MA and stays above it for at least three days, after spending at least nine months below it." "Between 1950 and 2022, this Super Golden Cross signal was triggered only eight times. All eight times, it marked the end of a bear market and the beginning of a new bull market." "Infallible" I guess it happened on Feb 6 and other times markets were up an average of 24% one year later with a high of 41%(beginning 9/30/82) and a low of 9%(beginning 5/24/78). I hope so, as I'm still about 70% stocks. The 50/200 used to work better many years ago, when something doesn't work they keep adjusting the formula. First attachment shows that the cross was late over 15% from the bottom. Second attachment for 2020. Sell was 20+% too late, buy was 40% too late. . Many indicators stopped working for years when trading started to be must faster and anyone globally with a PC/Laptop with a bit curiosity had the access. Attachments:
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Post by mnfish on Apr 11, 2023 13:18:29 GMT
uncleharley , "A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that." Latest from Wells - Expect 4000-4200 for 2023 year end 2023 Earnings $205 - So that's a PE of 19.5 20.5 Commodity long term bull cycle remains in place Upgraded (barely) Developed markets ex-US as they don't feel Europe will be as bad as previously expected
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Post by uncleharley on May 21, 2023 19:55:44 GMT
Fridays close for the S&P 500 was 4191.98. I could spit from there to a break above 4200. A move above 4195 would confirm the breakout from the multi yr flag on a flagpole pattern that has developed since the bottom of april 2020. Fwiw that pattern projects a run to about 6100 over the next 2 or 3 yrs. No, it will not go there in a straight line and there will be minor corrections along the way. Most of the likely leaders are represented in the Nasdaq 100 index and are a part of the AI industry. The Qs track the NDX 100 index. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p16869755096&a=524485138&listNum=86
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