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Post by Fearchar on Feb 26, 2023 11:31:58 GMT
marpro, Simply because Ramin has an investment advisory business does not mean his point is invalid. Please take care to avoid posting what appears to be a cynical message.
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Post by mnfish on Feb 26, 2023 12:49:02 GMT
Whether or not Investopedia is the go-to source for a definition, I highlighted in red that it is after 2 – 20% declines. So far, we've had 1. “The past performance is not indicative of the future.” In the rapidly changing world with 24/7 news cycle, high-speed trading, and money changing hands within nanoseconds, all the old norms may be and probably outdated. I have not seen the dollar bill in several years, and I am not even sure if I have one in my wallet. My wife used to get cash from the bank for spending. Even she has stopped doing that for a few years now. She finds it more convenient to use the web “scanning” credit cards, all digital. No need for any government to print cash now. In fact, the Fed of India has its App. UPI. Last week, both India and Singapore have tied up their payment systems for digital transactions. Why? Singapore has the largest minority of Indians, and there are a lot of transactions between them.
Add/Edit: My wife wants to close that checking account now because there is no use for that account now.
You sure sound a lot like ECEprof. What are you even talking about with this gibberish?
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Post by marpro on Feb 26, 2023 20:02:07 GMT
Britain has rationing of food now, particularly fruits and veggies, not enough around. You should consider that when someone from Britain talks about our economy.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 26, 2023 22:54:12 GMT
The daily and weekly charts for the S&P 500 will show the proverbial Golden Cross after the market close this week. This will happen regardless of today's market activities because it is nearly impossible to change the trend of a 50 or 200 dma with one day of trading. Most technicians will tell you that when the 50 dma crosses above the 200 dma a new rally has been confirmed and a bull market in stocks is in progress. Apparently, the landing for domestic stocks was so soft that no one noticed. Since there is always the possibility of a false signal and the fact that the stock market tends to lead the economy, this golden cross does not mean the economy has bottomed, but it probably will in the next 6 months or so. Does anyone else believe the stock market has bottomed and has begun a new bull ride? This used to be correct years ago when markets were slower. See below 2 charts of the SP500 in 2018, 2020. Both selling and buying were too late. Attachments:
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 28, 2023 20:28:26 GMT
marpro, Fearchar, mnfish, The markets love stability. Interest rates have tremendous influence on the direction that stocks and bonds go in. The 2, 5, & 10 yr treasuries have been in a consolidation pattern or trading range for the past 6 months. 15 & 30 yr mtgs have also stabilized. DIDJAFEELTHELANDING?
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 29, 2023 0:00:09 GMT
Set aside your likes or dislikes about Ken Fisher and watch this video. He compares 1966 to 2022, and then speculates that 2023 could turn out to be 1967-like stock market performance. No landing is his base case.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 29, 2023 0:03:39 GMT
uncleharley , The 10yr minus 2 year treasury spread is still inverted. That tends to foretell recessions. Most recessions have commenced after the inversion relaxes. So, we should wait a bit longer. COVID doesn't count!
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 29, 2023 0:30:10 GMT
uncleharley , The 10yr minus 2 year treasury spread is still inverted. That tends to foretell recessions. Most recessions have commenced after the inversion relaxes. So, we should wait a bit longer. View AttachmentCOVID doesn't count! Fearchar, do you not foresee a scenario where the Fed would engineer a NO LANDING ?? I ask because the Fed is hyper-focused on keeping stability of financial assets.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 29, 2023 0:56:43 GMT
steadyeddy, Because the FED is focused on this and is armed with more experience and data that in the past, I don't think we can tell how harsh or mild the recession may be. However, it's hard for me to imagine not landing.... not even sure what that means! would that be so smooth we wouldn't notice? If yes, that's possible; but it impresses me as wishful thinking too. I like Blackrocks point that the milder it is the longer this will take.... ie smoother landing
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 29, 2023 1:45:29 GMT
steadyeddy , Because the FED is focused on this and is armed with more experience and data that in the past, I don't think we can tell how harsh or mild the recession may be. However, it's hard for me to imagine not landing.... not even sure what that means! would that be so smooth we wouldn't notice? If yes, that's possible; but it impresses me as wishful thinking too. I like Blackrocks point that the milder it is the longer this will take.... ie smoother landing Fearchar, Fair enough. Whether we call it no landing or whatever, I feel that the Fed will suddenly change their tune and provide psychological boost to the market the moment recession is seen. As you know, the economy might take time to weather a recession but the market will look to Fed's cues to determine asset prices.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 29, 2023 10:50:17 GMT
Agree, the key point is that the FED will not be flooding the market in an attempt to rescue it. Obviously, they were quick to stabilize the banks, but this is not going to be a repeat of the Covid response or the 2008 to 2010 recession.
They will be going slow and hopefully won't mess it up.... in fact a mess up on their part is the only scenario I can think of where they might feel compelled to rescue the broader economy and thereby propell the markets much higher.
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Post by mnfish on Mar 29, 2023 12:59:32 GMT
"BOA...expects the S&P 500 to slump to 3,800 points by March 8 — a decline of more than 7% from Thursday’s close — after the benchmark failed to break through a ceiling of 4,200 points."
From a post on Feb 18. On March 10 it closed at 3,861.
Since the OP on Feb 8 it is down to 3,971 from 4,117. A year ago it was 4,602.
IMHO, it takes a long time to land a jumbo jet.
"Are Golden Crosses Reliable Indicators?" "As a lagging indicator, a golden cross is identified only after the market has risen, which makes it seem reliable. However, as a result of the lag, it is also difficult to know when the signal is a false one until after the fact."
So, we should know in a year or so.
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Post by johnsmith on Mar 29, 2023 13:54:41 GMT
Thanks for sharing that video of Ken Fisher. I appreciate new and different views.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 29, 2023 14:50:24 GMT
steadyeddy, thanks for the KF video. I have always enjoyed his articles, not so much his company. I doubt the Fed will do anything less than try to kill inflation. I know we all want a great stock market again it will be for nothing unless inflation is controlled. Yes it may turn out to be 1967 again when inflation was rising but still controlled around 2-3%. There are those on this site that think inflation will be 2% this June.
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 29, 2023 14:53:34 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 29, 2023 16:16:56 GMT
"BOA...expects the S&P 500 to slump to 3,800 points by March 8 — a decline of more than 7% from Thursday’s close — after the benchmark failed to break through a ceiling of 4,200 points." From a post on Feb 18. On March 10 it closed at 3,861. Since the OP on Feb 8 it is down to 3,971 from 4,117. A year ago it was 4,602. IMHO, it takes a long time to land a jumbo jet. "Are Golden Crosses Reliable Indicators?" "As a lagging indicator, a golden cross is identified only after the market has risen, which makes it seem reliable. However, as a result of the lag, it is also difficult to know when the signal is a false one until after the fact." So, we should know in a year or so. A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 30, 2023 1:46:26 GMT
I personally think the Fed will ensure "Emergency Room" or ICU treatment relative to money supply or interest rate policy to support asset prices.
I am now tilting toward a bull market in 2023.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 30, 2023 2:52:59 GMT
"BOA...expects the S&P 500 to slump to 3,800 points by March 8 — a decline of more than 7% from Thursday’s close — after the benchmark failed to break through a ceiling of 4,200 points." From a post on Feb 18. On March 10 it closed at 3,861. Since the OP on Feb 8 it is down to 3,971 from 4,117. A year ago it was 4,602. IMHO, it takes a long time to land a jumbo jet. "Are Golden Crosses Reliable Indicators?" "As a lagging indicator, a golden cross is identified only after the market has risen, which makes it seem reliable. However, as a result of the lag, it is also difficult to know when the signal is a false one until after the fact." So, we should know in a year or so. A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that. That would be welcome move up..
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 30, 2023 14:40:36 GMT
A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that. That would be welcome move up.. Todays high so far is 4052.
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Post by bb2 on Mar 30, 2023 16:55:06 GMT
I'm looking at inflation, fed funds for mid 60's. Ken Fisher is correct. One thing I wonder is if today's Fed learned to NOT ease too soon. Inflation took off again after the ease in late 66 into late '67, from 6 to 3.75. So, '67 was a pretty big ease and it's not looking like '23 will be an easing year at this point. Steady, maybe.
Seriously conflicting opinions on today's inflation.
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Post by Mustang on Mar 30, 2023 17:44:01 GMT
"BOA...expects the S&P 500 to slump to 3,800 points by March 8 — a decline of more than 7% from Thursday’s close — after the benchmark failed to break through a ceiling of 4,200 points." From a post on Feb 18. On March 10 it closed at 3,861. Since the OP on Feb 8 it is down to 3,971 from 4,117. A year ago it was 4,602. IMHO, it takes a long time to land a jumbo jet. "Are Golden Crosses Reliable Indicators?" "As a lagging indicator, a golden cross is identified only after the market has risen, which makes it seem reliable. However, as a result of the lag, it is also difficult to know when the signal is a false one until after the fact." So, we should know in a year or so. A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that. I saw on Fox Business News this morning that quarterly earnings are expected to be down. I have been hearing that for some time now. Why would you think earning are going up?
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 30, 2023 18:49:18 GMT
I track earning estimates every week. They were up about 1% last week. They bottomed out a while ago.
Too early to call it a trend IMO.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 30, 2023 18:55:51 GMT
A close above 4050 would argue for for a run above 4200. Qtrly earnings should follow thru on that. I saw on Fox Business News this morning that quarterly earnings are expected to be down. I have been hearing that for some time now. Why would you think earning are going up?
The economy is strong and inflation is high. That should support strong earnings. jmho
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Post by richardsok on Mar 31, 2023 14:59:25 GMT
I also watched the Fisher video. (Thanks eddy.) It is difficult to argue with the guy as he pulls together similarities between then and now, one after another. He's obviously put much thought into his thesis. But -- as with ALL longer term prognoses, he simply cannot predict EVENTS. I've gotten myself into spats before on this topic (people making longer term predictions) and don't want another intra-BB cage match. But unknown future events can and will lurch vast markets and reverse important trends from east to west or up to down. No one predicted Covid or Ukraine war or SVB collapse/financial stress, yet here we are. These former unknowns (and their equally unknown consequences) are major drivers of our current investment world.
What major risks does Fisher NOT mention? Well, one "known unknown" is the possible loss of the dollar's global reserve status, either slowly or suddenly. The consequences would impossible to exaggerate. Just the other day China and Brazil agreed to trade in yuan and real. I can't imagine what other surprises lie in wait out there.
My second point is the guy markets financial services. Of COURSE he's going to be optimistic whenever he plausibly can. His bias is undeniable. Intelligent to be sure -- but I wouldn't put my sister-in-law's money on it.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 31, 2023 21:13:51 GMT
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 31, 2023 22:07:37 GMT
uncleharley, your bull-case seems to be playing out. I am tilting that way but in a timid, unconvinced manner.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 31, 2023 22:12:55 GMT
I also watched the Fisher video. (Thanks eddy.) It is difficult to argue with the guy as he pulls together similarities between then and now, one after another. He's obviously put much thought into his thesis. But -- as with ALL longer term prognoses, he simply cannot predict EVENTS. I've gotten myself into spats before on this topic (people making longer term predictions) and don't want another intra-BB cage match. But unknown future events can and will lurch vast markets and reverse important trends from east to west or up to down. No one predicted Covid or Ukraine war or SVB collapse/financial stress, yet here we are. These former unknowns (and their equally unknown consequences) are major drivers of our current investment world. What major risks does Fisher NOT mention? Well, one "known unknown" is the possible loss of the dollar's global reserve status, either slowly or suddenly. The consequences would impossible to exaggerate. Just the other day China and Brazil agreed to trade in yuan and real. I can't imagine what other surprises lie in wait out there. My second point is the guy markets financial services. Of COURSE he's going to be optimistic whenever he plausibly can. His bias is undeniable. Intelligent to be sure -- but I wouldn't put my sister-in-law's money on it. richardsok , agree completely. A couple of recent bills passed into law in the US (particularly CHIPS act) fundamentally articulates a need to deglobalize (de-China-ize). Which immediately begins to form a couple of axes of partnerships. The NATO & the friendly Southeast Asian Nations is one axis. China-Russia-South America-Some parts of Middle East is another. I personally do not make much out of the China-Brazil deal. As for the reserve currency worry, let us be honest, is there really a true alternative? I do not think so. Could it happen over a decade or so? Yes.
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Post by gman57 on Mar 31, 2023 23:00:46 GMT
richardsok , agree completely. As for the reserve currency worry, let us be honest, is there really a true alternative? I do not think so. Could it happen over a decade or so? Yes. Ya....lol When the sh(&*T hits the fan let me know how many Yuan bonds you're buying. LOL
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Post by richardsok on Apr 1, 2023 0:07:58 GMT
uncleharley , your bull-case seems to be playing out. I am tilting that way but in a timid, unconvinced manner. Agree with eddy. Am watching the rally but have little confidence in its legs. We're just one inflation uptick or another stressed bank away from giving some gains back. Where I feel positive is with gold -- and my feelings seem invariably treacherous.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 1, 2023 1:24:56 GMT
uncleharley , your bull-case seems to be playing out. I am tilting that way but in a timid, unconvinced manner. Agree with eddy. Am watching the rally but have little confidence in its legs. We're just one inflation uptick or another stressed bank away from giving some gains back. Where I feel positive is with gold -- and my feelings seem invariably treacherous. Yes, M'Lord. I feel like I have a conflicted portfolio with long positions in both GDXU and TQQQ. The way I believe they will work is further declines in the value of the USD. I am watching developments concerning the USD as close as my portfolio.
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