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Post by uncleharley on Feb 22, 2023 16:47:40 GMT
You may call me a bear too, I thinking we will dip below 3850 and could get as low as 3750. Mike Wilson has been kicking around 3,000, which impresses me as unlikely. You may very well be right. I am bullish because of the number of support indicators that are at the 3800/4000 level. It is highly unlikely they will all be broken until they have moved far into history. Actually the 4000 level looks like the new bottom to me. We shall see. |
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Post by archer on Feb 22, 2023 17:32:36 GMT
I'm concerned about the current level of $TNX. Overall It is hard to say all the TA signals are unanimously bullish or bearish, but I see signs that point to the market being vulnerable.  |
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 23, 2023 22:19:29 GMT
Copied from a yogi post...
AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/22/23
For the week ending on 2/22/23, neutral remained the top sentiment (39.8%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (21.6%; very low); bearish became the middle sentiment (38.6%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread collapsed to -17.0% (very low).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish Bull-Bear Spread
01-19-23 30.97% 35.96% 33.07% -2.1%
01-26-23 28.37% 34.96% 36.68% -8.3%
02-02-23 29.90% 35.55% 34.55% -4.7%
02-09-23 37.50% 37.50% 25.00% +12.5%
02-16-23 34.12% 37.06% 28.82% +5.3%
02-22-23 21.6% 39.8% 38.6% -17.0%
--------------------------------------------
R48
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Post by marpro on Feb 24, 2023 15:56:55 GMT
$SPX could breach below 200-MA (3940) today. It is teetering around there (3944). Is it consolidation or secular bear? It could be a rough landing now.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 24, 2023 17:50:54 GMT
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 24, 2023 17:59:53 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 24, 2023 18:10:52 GMT
N'yet. The Dept of Commerce has tampered with the way many of their stats are calculated. The expectation is that Januarys stats for wages especially would be hot because of the changes. Technically I have an indicator I call the Lunch Crowd Indicator. When I am in doubt of the direction of the market I bring up a 5 minute intraday chart of the S&P and observe the trading pattern over the lunch hr. I then go in the opposite direction. Today the indexes sold off during lunch. I am holding for further developments. |
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Post by marpro on Feb 24, 2023 18:12:54 GMT
I also read the same. But, the persistent inflation number and the FED's resolve on that do not augur well for the market. TNX keeps going up. The reason is consumer debt keeps going up, drying out the investment dollars. XLP and VDC are also down. People are also using their 401(k) money to keep up with life's spending. One step forward, one or more steps backward. Clearly, Wall Street's push on the FED may not work at all. As Jamie Dimon said, “Not so fast.” So, I am/will be still income-focussed until FED is done with. Listen the news from Fed's Mester.
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 24, 2023 19:21:14 GMT
N'yet. The Dept of Commerce has tampered with the way many of their stats are calculated. The expectation is that Januarys stats for wages especially would be hot because of the changes. Technically I have an indicator I call the Lunch Crowd Indicator. When I am in doubt of the direction of the market I bring up a 5 minute intraday chart of the S&P and observe the trading pattern over the lunch hr. I then go in the opposite direction. Today the indexes sold off during lunch. I am holding for further developments. , thanks for your anecdotal metric to see how the wind is blowing. I personally think the Fed will keep 25bps hikes going a while longer, but I do not think they will crash the market (either bonds or stocks). |
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Post by marpro on Feb 24, 2023 20:22:06 GMT
I forgot to mention the private credit card debt. It has reached all-time high, even more than the one reached during the pandemic time.
- “A growing number of Americans are leaning on increasingly expensive credit-card debt,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate.
People have to survive somehow by eating food and driving to work (energy). If the FED leaves the “volatile” “food and energy,” how do the people in Washington and Wall Street survive? Are they starving without food?
- After the report, implied yields on federal funds futures contracts showed traders firmly pricing in at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.
- "It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas. "They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession."
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 24, 2023 21:53:55 GMT
I like to read the markets reaction to news. Today the major indexs all went up on strong trading volume in the last 15 minutes of trading. Usually they will look weak on a friday close. They never look strong at a friday close in a bear market.
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Post by newtecher on Feb 25, 2023 0:14:29 GMT
They never look strong at a friday close in a bear market. Strong claim. Is there any data on this? |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 25, 2023 0:20:32 GMT
Several data points show cautious optimism:
- IMF forecast of global growth for 2023 is positive
- UK PMI moved higher this month
- Employers are slowing down hiring (ZipRecruiter data)
- Tech layoffs have not been meaningful relative to the over-hiring they did during stay-at-home COVID era
- Companies like Home Depot allocating more $ to keep/attract employees
Of course, the counterpoints are:
- inflation is sticky
- The Fed may keep going higher and higher
But if you look at bonds action today, you wouldn't see the fear of higher highs in target FedFunds rate.
My 2 cents: The economy is probably at stall speed
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Post by habsui on Feb 25, 2023 1:19:28 GMT
My prediction - We will land. Time, location, and depth of impact crater are not fully known.
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 25, 2023 3:47:58 GMT
My prediction - We will land. Time, location, and depth of impact crater are not fully known. Your prediction will certainly come true! 😀 |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 25, 2023 12:17:59 GMT
My prediction - We will land. Time, location, and depth of impact crater are not fully known. The O P and a clarifying post says the bottom has been in for a few months and points out evidence of that assertion. Since no one has refuted that statement, I assume it stands as written. I am very curious about how you would recognize a bottom if/when it occurs? |
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Post by mnfish on Feb 25, 2023 13:40:09 GMT
Investopedia - The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each.
The bull market from Sept 2002 to Oct 2007 was after 2 - +20% declines from Aug 2000.
The bull market from March 2009 to Feb 2020 was after 2 - +20% declines from Dec 2007.
By definition, shouldn't we expect another pull back before we can call it a bull market? Like maybe 3280?
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 25, 2023 13:51:24 GMT
My prediction - We will land. Time, location, and depth of impact crater are not fully known. If referring to the economy, to have a "landing" does it not first require a downturn...coming down?. Economy is not yet even coming down. And recession is defined as two straight quarters of decline in GDP. To get that officially, means a long wait yet of at least a couple quarters. Can one say, unless recession to any degree, there is "no landing.?" Or should we say: One Quarter of down GDP is a landing? R48 |
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Post by marpro on Feb 25, 2023 14:51:15 GMT
“Like maybe 3280?”
Probably, not and unlikely. There is a resistance at the lower level also, pushed by the Wall Street. There was a push for $SPX to go lower than 3944 level (200-MA), but rebounded towards the end. The theory is: FED cannot achieve the 2% inflation rate with its interest rate tool alone, while employment rate and earnings remain high. Spending remains high, too, in spite of some heavy credit-card debt.
But, investors are worried about the interest rate too, as TNX keeps going up, and the mortgage rates also reversed and going up. The reverse of mortgage rates have little effect on the housing market as most of the old mortgages are already at fixed low rates of the past long term. For example, I have a fixed rate of 2.375% for another 14 more years left. Since most people went for the fixed low rates of 2020-2021, who will want to change this now? Since 70% of the private debt is the mortgage debt, FED's interest rate tool has become blunt now. As TNX goes up, many savers make more money with savings at the higher rates of MM with no sweat.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 25, 2023 15:20:24 GMT
Investopedia - The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each. The bull market from Sept 2002 to Oct 2007 was after 2 - +20% declines from Aug 2000. The bull market from March 2009 to Feb 2020 was after 2 - +20% declines from Dec 2007. By definition, shouldn't we expect another pull back before we can call it a bull market? Like maybe 3280? 20% down from the high of 4818 on the SPX would be just above 3900. We closed friday at 3970. That may be close enough to make Investopedias call. It would also confirm my two very short term signals from friday. There seems to be a reasonable chance that the stock market landed and we begin a bull market on monday. |
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Post by mnfish on Feb 25, 2023 15:42:04 GMT
Investopedia - The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each.The bull market from Sept 2002 to Oct 2007 was after 2 - +20% declines from Aug 2000. The bull market from March 2009 to Feb 2020 was after 2 - +20% declines from Dec 2007. By definition, shouldn't we expect another pull back before we can call it a bull market? Like maybe 3280? 20% down from the high of 4818 on the SPX would be just above 3900. We closed friday at 3970. That may be close enough to make Investopedias call. It would also confirm my two very short term signals from friday. There seems to be a reasonable chance that the stock market landed and we begin a bull market on monday. |
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Post by marpro on Feb 25, 2023 15:59:11 GMT
20% down from the high of 4818 on the SPX would be just above 3900. We closed friday at 3970. That may be close enough to make Investopedias call. It would also confirm my two very short term signals from friday. There seems to be a reasonable chance that the stock market landed and we begin a bull market on monday. “The past performance is not indicative of the future.” In the rapidly changing world with 24/7 news cycle, high-speed trading, and money changing hands within nanoseconds, all the old norms may be and probably outdated. I have not seen the dollar bill in several years, and I am not even sure if I have one in my wallet. My wife used to get cash from the bank for spending. Even she has stopped doing that for a few years now. She finds it more convenient to use the web “scanning” credit cards, all digital. No need for any government to print cash now. In fact, the Fed of India has its App. UPI. Last week, both India and Singapore have tied up their payment systems for digital transactions. Why? Singapore has the largest minority of Indians, and there are a lot of transactions between them.
Add/Edit: My wife wants to close that checking account now because there is no use for that account now.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 25, 2023 16:01:30 GMT
20% down from the high of 4818 on the SPX would be just above 3900. We closed friday at 3970. That may be close enough to make Investopedias call. It would also confirm my two very short term signals from friday. There seems to be a reasonable chance that the stock market landed and we begin a bull market on monday. From the high of 4818, I count 5. The last one was yesterday. |
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Post by Chahta on Feb 25, 2023 16:23:21 GMT
I like to read the markets reaction to news. Today the major indexs all went up on strong trading volume in the last 15 minutes of trading. Usually they will look weak on a friday close. They never look strong at a friday close in a bear market. Maybe the traders are hedging their Mondays bets. They bought then will sell Monday morning. But I sure hope the Bull pokes his head out. The inflation news was a downer. |
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Post by archer on Feb 25, 2023 16:37:24 GMT
It seems we need to define what is meant by 2 20% declines. In early Oct '18 the market dropped and by the end of the year had fallen by over 20% If we were in a bull market prior to that Oct high, the recovery starting in Jan 2019 was not a bull market because there hadn't been a 2nd 20% decline. We went on to make new highs up to Feb 2020 and the market fell over 20% again. Since the market again reached an all time high, the Feb and March bear of 2020 was only one bear, so, the rest of 2020 and 2021 can't be called a bull market either. However, if we call 2018 the 2nd bear with 2008 being the first, then 2019 WAS a bull and 2020 and 2022 make 2 bears.
I think anytime we make a new all time high, we are starting over again. Until a new all time high is made, we are merely in a recovery phase (recovering to the previous all time high). For investing, it doesn't make sense to remain out of the market until a new all time high, and recoveries are where much of the money is. Eg. the new high after 2002 was in 2007.
The investopedia article mentioned earlier probably provides context which we are lacking here.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 25, 2023 16:47:00 GMT
It seems we need to define what is meant by 2 20% declines. In early Oct '18 the market dropped and by the end of the year had fallen by over 20% If we were in a bull market prior to that Oct high, the recovery starting in Jan 2019 was not a bull market because there hadn't been a 2nd 20% decline. We went on to make new highs up to Feb 2020 and the market fell over 20% again. Since the market again reached an all time high, the Feb and March bear of 2020 was only one bear, so, the rest of 2020 and 2021 can't be called a bull market either. However, if we call 2018 the 2nd bear with 2008 being the first, then 2019 WAS a bull and 2020 and 2022 make 2 bears. I think anytime we make a new all time high, we are starting over again. Until a new all time high is made, we are merely in a recovery phase (recovering to the previous all time high). For investing, it doesn't make sense to remain out of the market until a new all time high, and recoveries are where much of the money is. Eg. the new high after 2002 was in 2007. The investopedia article mentioned earlier probably provides context which we are lacking here. O K. I think the market is going up on monday. I also think the low is in at 3491 SPX. |
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Post by marpro on Feb 25, 2023 17:23:35 GMT
Look at the cash flow index – CMF using a short two-week average. schrts.co/rJPyCQInUp and down, never below zero this year. The market has no steady mind one way or other. |
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Post by Fearchar on Feb 26, 2023 1:02:06 GMT
PensionCraft Ramin points out that low unemployment and robust retail activity tends to precede recessions. Ramin is from the UK, but focuses on the US. 15 minutes video with minimal commercials: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjlzZUYCEgE |
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Post by marpro on Feb 26, 2023 1:45:06 GMT
PensionCraft Ramin points out that low unemployment and robust retail activity tends to precede recessions. Ramin is from the UK, but focuses on the US. 15 minutes video with minimal commercials: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjlzZUYCEgEThere are many old theories. He wants to sell something to fill up and make some cash. Should it or will it be true this time? |
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Post by Chahta on Feb 26, 2023 2:24:10 GMT
Just another possibility. This week Siegel stated there is a chance of no landing. Lack of high unemployment with low GDP growth could lead to no landing. He believes the PPI number Friday sounded worse than it is. Siegel prefers forward looking inflation data, which he states is declining. Only 11 months into rates hikes, they haven’t had full effect yet. He is still projecting 25BP increase next month.
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