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Post by FD1000 on Mar 25, 2023 19:14:55 GMT
Maybe the "why" of fed raising matters? In 2016, all was good and people were happy we might be getting back to a more normal policy - off the crazy zero rate situation. Now, the fed is fighting inflation and may well have to send the economy into recession to achieve a lower inflation rate. I didn't read the whole Bowley thing, so maybe I missed a bigger point. What's with all the punctuation Bowley uses - I guess it's like canned laughter in a sit com, designed to make viewers think it's funny. The !!!!!!!!!! makes the reader think he's right. I think Bowley is one of the best analysts IMO. The way he writes or what he sells doesn't bother me at all. I only pay attention to his main ideas which cover many subjects. I have been reading/listening to him for years and he does that on a weekly basis. The economy + the recession do not correlate to what stock will do in the next 1-3-6 months, because the stock market looks forward.
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Post by flipperxxx on Mar 26, 2023 15:16:53 GMT
bought some NHMAX on 3/8 due to three-line break to the upside. sadly, also bought a floating rate fund on the same day, which i have since sold. NHMAX is up 1.27%, almost but not quite leading to break even when considering the losing floating rate trade. may buy some ORNAX next week, since it's doing better than NHMAX.
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 5, 2023 18:44:12 GMT
bought some NHMAX on 3/8 due to three-line break to the upside. sadly, also bought a floating rate fund on the same day, which i have since sold. NHMAX is up 1.27%, almost but not quite leading to break even when considering the losing floating rate trade. may buy some ORNAX next week, since it's doing better than NHMAX. The above was a great call, but as you know, I only post weeks later or none. I bought NHMAX a day earlier, and when I buy, I really buy, this is not 1-2-5%, see the trade below. The next day I bought a lot more to be at 99+% invested. Because of the CVB scare + high ^MOVE I sold for several days, but when the uptrend resumed, I bought again. I'm OK just making 1% per month I looked at the ^MOVE( link) history years ago, and came to a conclusion it's not an accurate indicator, but when it hit 180, I started to pay attention, and sold. I don't mind being wrong in MM making only 4.6+% very safely. Since 2022, the only bond funds I used have been HY Munis = KISS by following my ST+LT indicators. Attachments:
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Post by habsui on Apr 5, 2023 20:27:16 GMT
Even if you invest only in bonds, YTD you should have made more than 1% per month if you read the tea leaves well.
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 5, 2023 21:04:52 GMT
Even if you invest only in bonds, YTD you should have made more than 1% per month if you read the tea leaves well. My statement was generic, I will be very happy to make 1% monthly average in 2023. BTW, the sky is blue, and I'm happy your post had a great contribution to the thread.
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Post by habsui on Apr 5, 2023 21:48:42 GMT
Even if you invest only in bonds, YTD you should have made more than 1% per month if you read the tea leaves well. My statement was generic, I will be very happy to make 1% monthly average in 2023. BTW, the sky is blue, and I'm happy your post had a great contribution to the thread. Thanks. Sometimes short posts increase the content quality a lot.
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Post by Chahta on Apr 5, 2023 21:52:14 GMT
Even if you invest only in bonds, YTD you should have made more than 1% per month if you read the tea leaves well. I believe that bonds will be easy this year and next year, as long as inflation stays on a downtrend. I am not sure if TNX will rise again but so far so good. I believe the market has priced in the next 25 BP increase by the Fed and looking forward to the pause and decrease by the Fed.
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Post by flipperxxx on Apr 5, 2023 23:57:25 GMT
bought some NHMAX on 3/8 due to three-line break to the upside. sadly, also bought a floating rate fund on the same day, which i have since sold. NHMAX is up 1.27%, almost but not quite leading to break even when considering the losing floating rate trade. may buy some ORNAX next week, since it's doing better than NHMAX. The above was a great call, but as you know, I only post weeks later or none. I bought NHMAX a day earlier, and when I buy, I really buy, this is not 1-2-5%, see the trade below. The next day I bought a lot more to be at 99+% invested. Because of the CVB scare + high ^MOVE I sold, but when the uptrend resumed, I bought again. I'm OK just making 1% per month I looked at the ^MOVE( link) history years ago, and came to a conclusion it's not an accurate indicator, but when it hit 180, I started to pay attention, and sold. I don't mind being wrong in MM making only 4.6+% very safely. Since 2022, the only bond funds I used have been HY Munis = KISS by following my ST+LT indicator. youi've got more guts than i do, that's for sure. only, i post pretty much in real time and ain't that a kind of guts? anyway, on 3/29, with some trepidation, i waded into OPTAX, which I thought would be less volatile, with lesser but okay returns, than NHMAX. but lo and beyond i'm up 1.16% on the buy. btw / why didn't you buy ORNAX instead of NHMAx?
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 6, 2023 1:05:17 GMT
flipperxxx, I only posted about a small % of my portfolio for one time in 2023. YTD it has been my smallest buy. I don't own NHMAX now because I don't like it's risk/reward in the last 2-3 months. Today was another great day within the last several days.
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 6, 2023 1:09:55 GMT
My statement was generic, I will be very happy to make 1% monthly average in 2023. BTW, the sky is blue, and I'm happy your post had a great contribution to the thread. Thanks. Sometimes short posts increase the content quality a lot. habsui, after reading your comments several times, I decided to hibernate my posts for a while again. You "won".
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Post by habsui on Apr 6, 2023 3:59:21 GMT
Thanks. Sometimes short posts increase the content quality a lot. habsui, after reading your comments several times, I decided to hibernate my posts for a while again. You "won". I have no idea why this is directed at me. I didn't criticize you. No need to stop posting because of me. I can stay out of the way.
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Post by flipperxxx on Apr 6, 2023 12:18:18 GMT
flipperxxx, I only posted about a small % of my portfolio for one time in 2023. YTD it has been my smallest buy. I don't own NHMAX now because I don't like it's risk/reward in the last 2-3 months. Today was another great day within the last several days. ing i'm not exactly sure what you're saying but that's fine: i'm easily perplexed. think i'll start a thread on three-line break charts, just to document its buys and sells, successes and, of course, failures, more or less in real time.
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Post by mnfish on Apr 6, 2023 12:36:26 GMT
From Wells - -Lack of timely financials equals more Muni rating withdrawals -YTD S&P has placed 149 ratings on Credit Watch due to lack of 2021 financials -149 equals the number of ratings actions taken in 2018 and 2019 combined -Immediate bondholder risk is a rating withdrawal after a 30 day grace period -Although many bonds carry multiple ratings, Moodys and Fitch could follow suit -More prolific issuers should be able to meet the requirements
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 9, 2023 12:06:22 GMT
( www.cnbc.com/etf-edge/) Quote: According to MarketAxess CEO Chris Concannon, there are signs Treasury ETFs are on the cusp of substantial inflows.
“We’re about to see what I’d call bond renaissance,” the electronic-trading platform CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “The Fed is still taking action, so I would expect bond yields overall to remain relatively high and attractive.”
“We’ve seen a lot of advisors take a little bit off the table, both in the equity side and the fixed income side,” he said. “So, safety is key until we start to see confidence that the Fed really has some handle on inflation and [there’s] stability in the marketplace.”
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 7, 2023 12:24:43 GMT
Big picture: All of my trades over a year now in bond land have been only in HY Muni. Attachment 1 shows it. I believe that Muni have a better risk/reward than treasuries because they are less affected by rates + a special category. Since early 2022 I posted why you should sell everything. Since 11/2022(the OP of this thread), I posted why most should be in, and why I got in at 99+% and back to "normal". I also posted last week that the Fed fund rate is stabilized and may not change for months more than 0.25%. This means green light for bonds. Actions: let's look closer to YTD. So far, I bough in January and sold. Bought again in March and sold everything in April 13 and posted about it in real time. After about 2.5 months of rest, I bought last week at 99+%. Why: T/A is easier for bond funds. YTD, I didn't use NHMAX at high % because there were better HY Munis funds. This time it's the only HY I own. It has higher SD, the Fed/rates are moderated, good chances, it will do a bit better. One of my fav indicator is 3 line break, you all got it for FREE. This indicator signaled a buy on May 31 for most HY Muni funds, that means you should buy it on June 2. UNLESS, you follow, the real time HYD index who trades daily. This one signaled a buy on May 30 which means you entered 2 days earlier. REGARLESS, if you look at attach 2, you can clearly see a sharp drop, that usually leads to a sharp uptrend. Volatility brings opportunity, a 3% drop in 2 weeks is huge in bond land. New stuff: I also bought a fund that isn't a HY muni and it's my biggest holding by far. Hope to hold it longer. The future is unknown, I can be in/out any time. Remember, MM paying 5% annually is an easy choice for me. Attachments:
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Post by Karen on Jun 7, 2023 13:08:07 GMT
Actions: let's look closer to YTD. So far, I bough in January and sold. Bought again in March and sold everything in April 13 and posted about it in real time. After about 2.5 months of rest, I bought last week at 99+%. (1)New stuff: I also bought a fund that isn't a HY muni and it's my biggest holding by far. (2)The future is unknown, I can be in/out any time. Remember, MM paying 5% annually is an easy choice for me. (3) (1) So based on you posting a chart of ORNAX and its recent near parabolic move UP, it appears you are saying you bought ORNAX last week. We checked this thread and the B/S/W thread but don't see your BUY(s) post there. Where and when did you post your BUY of ORNAX or whatever muni bond fund BUY(s) you are referring to in this post? Please be brief and specific. (2) We checked this thread and the B/S/W thread but we don't see your BUY post there. Where and when did you post your BUY this non HY muni fund and what is the name of symbol of that fund? Please be brief and specific. (3) You post that a lot about the future being "unknown" and we fully agree. Yet somehow YOU are reportedly able to predict it accurately 100% of the time in respect to trading. You seem especially accurate at BUYing right BEFORE parabolic moves UP, and SELLing right before significant moves DOWN. My husband worked in the investment business at very high levels for about four decades and he's never seen anything like it. So please explain your incredibly rare ability and please provide specific examples of at least three of your recent, highly successful trades WITH links to your BUYs and SELLs that YOU reported on this forum in real-time, meaning the day of the respective BUYs and SELLs.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 7, 2023 16:30:25 GMT
Actions: let's look closer to YTD. So far, I bough in January and sold. Bought again in March and sold everything in April 13 and posted about it in real time. After about 2.5 months of rest, I bought last week at 99+%. (1)New stuff: I also bought a fund that isn't a HY muni and it's my biggest holding by far. (2)The future is unknown, I can be in/out any time. Remember, MM paying 5% annually is an easy choice for me. (3) (1) So based on you posting a chart of ORNAX and its recent near parabolic move UP, it appears you are saying you bought ORNAX last week. We checked this thread and the B/S/W thread but don't see your BUY(s) post there. Where and when did you post your BUY of ORNAX or whatever muni bond fund BUY(s) you are referring to in this post? Please be brief and specific. (2) We checked this thread and the B/S/W thread but we don't see your BUY post there. Where and when did you post your BUY this non HY muni fund and what is the name of symbol of that fund? Please be brief and specific. (3) You post that a lot about the future being "unknown" and we fully agree. Yet somehow YOU are reportedly able to predict it accurately 100% of the time in respect to trading. You seem especially accurate at BUYing right BEFORE parabolic moves UP, and SELLing right before significant moves DOWN. My husband worked in the investment business at very high levels for about four decades and he's never seen anything like it. So please explain your incredibly rare ability and please provide specific examples of at least three of your recent, highly successful trades WITH links to your BUYs and SELLs that YOU reported on this forum in real-time, meaning the day of the respective BUYs and SELLs. I explained it many times before. You usually will not see post about my trades. But, for years, I explained what/how I do it and even supply one of my best T/A indicators. All actual trade discussions are off the board. My results of what my portfolio have done were published too, see my page. To be honest, someone who followed my posts for years know what I do, and most of the funds I trade. Actually , over the years I posted real times trades and opinions what to do. I just posted I used an indicator, did you check it out? I'm sure you didn't. Since I usually own 2 funds, I don't want others to get a deeper insight and disclose too much. On the other hand, when someone says I bought this and that, usually at 1-5%, most don't have a clue what is their allocation, what funds and what % they own, and that's what most posters do. But, no one stops you from posting your portfolio, the funds at what %, and all your trades. Did you do it?It's amazing how someone can miss what I wrote. I specifically said that I bought NHMAX, and you posted that I bought ORNAX. I just attached a chart of ORNAX. Lastly, this thread has a subject, please stay on topic. If you want to troll, please do it in your own thread.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 7, 2023 17:35:22 GMT
FD -- Logically, I feel you are correct. I would probably be more successful if (like you!) I limited my exposure to just three or four low-volatility positions and traded exclusively on the MACD or on the 5 x 15 DMA. If such a notion is correct, I continually hurt myself by my daily internet reading and am always tinkering with charts, opinions and outlooks. Inevitably I find something else and think, "Well, THAT looks pretty good. I'll try a little." In the end, I'm not far off from two or three enormous positions. For example, right now I must have five or six big preferred funds and several individual preferreds, I am sure they all act in sympathy -- much like one big position in PFF or JCP would.... but as I enter bit by bit, I will probably exit bit by bit as well -- and that is a mistake. When "sell" signals are confirmed, I'd be better off exiting quickly in one or two big sells. The truth is, I lack the confidence to make big buys in the high six-figures for something like PDI, ET, AIQ or SPYI, where just a few positions would dominate. I always want to enter slowly. In tactical trading I find my habits and emotions are in continual conflict with my judgment. A too-cluttered portfolio is a risk in itself.... but that's what I keep creating. IMO.
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Post by gman57 on Jun 7, 2023 18:48:50 GMT
FD -- Logically, I feel you are correct. I would probably be more successful if (like you!) I limited my exposure to just three or four low-volatility positions and traded exclusively on the MACD or on the 5 x 15 DMA. If such a notion is correct, I continually hurt myself by my daily internet reading and am always tinkering with charts, opinions and outlooks. Inevitably I find something else and think, "Well, THAT looks pretty good. I'll try a little." In the end, I'm not far off from two or three enormous positions. For example, right now I must have five or six big preferred funds and several individual preferreds, I am sure they all act in sympathy -- much like one big position in PFF or JCP would.... but as I enter bit by bit, I will probably exit bit by bit as well -- and that is a mistake. When "sell" signals are confirmed, I'd be better off exiting quickly in one or two big sells. The truth is, I lack the confidence to make big buys in the high six-figures for something like PDI, ET, AIQ or SPYI, where just a few positions would dominate. I always want to enter slowly. In tactical trading I find my habits and emotions are in continual conflict with my judgment. A too-cluttered portfolio is a risk in itself.... but that's what I keep creating. IMO. You forgot to add it's fun and I enjoy doing it. Which may be one of the most important investing traits.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 7, 2023 19:53:43 GMT
Actions: let's look closer to YTD. So far, I bough in January and sold. Bought again in March and sold everything in April 13 and posted about it in real time. After about 2.5 months of rest, I bought last week at 99+%. (1)New stuff: I also bought a fund that isn't a HY muni and it's my biggest holding by far. (2)The future is unknown, I can be in/out any time. Remember, MM paying 5% annually is an easy choice for me. (3) (1) So based on you posting a chart of ORNAX and its recent near parabolic move UP, it appears you are saying you bought ORNAX last week. We checked this thread and the B/S/W thread but don't see your BUY(s) post there. Where and when did you post your BUY of ORNAX or whatever muni bond fund BUY(s) you are referring to in this post? Please be brief and specific. (2) We checked this thread and the B/S/W thread but we don't see your BUY post there. Where and when did you post your BUY this non HY muni fund and what is the name of symbol of that fund? Please be brief and specific. (3) You post that a lot about the future being "unknown" and we fully agree. Yet somehow YOU are reportedly able to predict it accurately 100% of the time in respect to trading. You seem especially accurate at BUYing right BEFORE parabolic moves UP, and SELLing right before significant moves DOWN. My husband worked in the investment business at very high levels for about four decades and he's never seen anything like it. So please explain your incredibly rare ability and please provide specific examples of at least three of your recent, highly successful trades WITH links to your BUYs and SELLs that YOU reported on this forum in real-time, meaning the day of the respective BUYs and SELLs. Hi Karen, I hope you are well. Most of us don't take the above poster seriously and it appears that he likes to engage in conflict and then present himself as the victim. As tiring as it is, I find responses to his reduncy rather like feeding a pig and the replies, unlike the avatar he has chosen, making a withdrawal as opposed to a deposit, if you get my drift. Take good care. - RM
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Post by mnfish on Oct 31, 2023 11:56:01 GMT
BKLN is up 6% YTD and paying 8.5%. I'm looking for a replacement for VFICX (intermediate bond) which is down 21% in 2 years. BKLN is down 6% in the same period and pays twice as much. Any thoughts?
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Post by Chahta on Oct 31, 2023 12:12:48 GMT
BKLN is up 6% YTD and paying 8.5%. I'm looking for a replacement for VFICX (intermediate bond) which is down 21% in 2 years. BKLN is down 6% in the same period and pays twice as much. Any thoughts? I like CBLDX and RSIIX. The manager does ST HY very well. They are small funds that can buy things big funds cannot. I believe them to be conservative funds. They are paying 7.5% and 8.3% trailing respectively. But we are talking apples/oranges as compared to VFICX.
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Post by mnfish on Oct 31, 2023 13:33:18 GMT
BKLN is up 6% YTD and paying 8.5%. I'm looking for a replacement for VFICX (intermediate bond) which is down 21% in 2 years. BKLN is down 6% in the same period and pays twice as much. Any thoughts? I like CBLDX and RSIIX. The manager does ST HY very well. They are small funds that can buy things big funds cannot. I believe them to be conservative funds. They are paying 7.5% and 8.3% trailing respectively. But we are talking apples/oranges as compared to VFICX. It's interesting that all 3 are holding at least 20% cash (per Yahoo) and I'm at 30% cash and MM. I just can't fathom what would have to happen for a bond fund like VFICX to come back to be even close to break even. It seems that by the time their current bonds mature and they buy new ones, yields could be the same as the old ones. How would that raise their price?
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 31, 2023 14:01:45 GMT
BKLN is up 6% YTD and paying 8.5%. I'm looking for a replacement for VFICX (intermediate bond) which is down 21% in 2 years. BKLN is down 6% in the same period and pays twice as much. Any thoughts? BKLN is up almost 9%, while EIFAX+FAFRX are up even more ( schrts.co/WVBEcAyF). The chart includes distr while several sites don't. Bank loan are in decline now too. Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on Oct 31, 2023 15:51:41 GMT
I like CBLDX and RSIIX. The manager does ST HY very well. They are small funds that can buy things big funds cannot. I believe them to be conservative funds. They are paying 7.5% and 8.3% trailing respectively. But we are talking apples/oranges as compared to VFICX. It's interesting that all 3 are holding at least 20% cash (per Yahoo) and I'm at 30% cash and MM. I just can't fathom what would have to happen for a bond fund like VFICX to come back to be even close to break even. It seems that by the time their current bonds mature and they buy new ones, yields could be the same as the old ones. How would that raise their price? they can afford to hold cash at 5 1/2% yield and looking for buys. Watch what happens when interest rates go down 1/2%. The bond market will take off. I think even once the Fed has paused for hood it will happen. JMHO.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 1, 2023 3:37:30 GMT
Many still forget the basics. The Fed controls the ST, the market controls the LT. The Fed fund rate stayed the same since 08/2023. You would think it's a signal for stabilization, but let's see what happened since 08/2023. several bond categories are all down pretty substantial: BND,VCIT,DODIX,VWALX,PiMIX. There were several posters who tried to catch the top and got burned. I have been saying the same thing. Only uptrends matter. I was again in Oct and keep holding the same 2 bond funds Attachments:
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Post by keppelbay on Nov 1, 2023 7:00:09 GMT
interesting observation.
FD, we know that you don't care about reasons, but does anyone care to speculate?
my 2c (maybe that should be -2c): folks voting with real money apparently think the fed isn't through raising rates. Why, is the question. Inflation not really under control? geopolitical issues? excessive gov't borrowing?
thoughts anyone?
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Post by roi2020 on Nov 1, 2023 7:14:09 GMT
Pehaps inflation may remain higher for longer than concensus expectations?
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Post by Chahta on Nov 1, 2023 10:28:43 GMT
interesting observation.
FD, we know that you don't care about reasons, but does anyone care to speculate?
my 2c (maybe that should be -2c): folks voting with real money apparently think the fed isn't through raising rates. Why, is the question. Inflation not really under control? geopolitical issues? excessive gov't borrowing?
thoughts anyone?
Because Powell can intimidate by remarks and using other methods. He doesn't need to raise rates now. He lets speculation do that bidding for him. Additionally TNX is helping the Fed too.
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Post by anitya on Nov 1, 2023 17:03:40 GMT
Many still forget the basics. The Fed controls the ST, the market controls the LT. I am sorry, this is a slogan repeated by many. It has no more value than any other slogan. Fed tries to control Fed fund rate and also the Treasury curve through its QT, QE, and mix of what maturities it targets. One just have to see in the moment what the Fed is targeting to achieve its monetary policy objectives.
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