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Post by FD1000 on Jan 7, 2023 15:03:47 GMT
Last week all bond categories resume their uptrend. Bonds are on an uptrend for 2 months since the my OP, looks pretty simple to me after one of the worse year performance for decades + close to the end of raising rates by the Fed.
I use 5 generic categories HYD=HY Muni....BKLN=bank loan....HYG=HY...PIMIX=Multi...DODIX=higher-rated bonds. The chart below shows that all bond categories are in a great uptrend. Here is a link for the ( chart). See it also below. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 11, 2023 4:33:20 GMT
VCIT: Strong Performance So Far, But IG Bonds Are Just Getting Started ( seekingalpha.com/article/4568956-vcit-strong-performance-so-far-but-ig-bonds-are-just-getting-started?mailingid=30207141&messageid=must_reads&serial=30207141.910081&utm_campaign=Must%2BReads%2BJanuary%2B10%2C%2B2023&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads) Summary * VCIT is sitting on total returns of 7.2% since we initiated our "Strong Buy" rating on 25 October 2022. A respectable return for an investment-grade bond ETF in less than 3 months. * When we initiated coverage of VCIT and invested in it, we invested in the fundamental idea that inflation would ultimately be transitory. * Our big-picture view of the economy hasn't changed, so we are maintaining our "Strong Buy" rating. * Expectations for normalization of Fed monetary policy should drive 5-10 year investment-grade bond yields back to the 3.5-4.0% range from VCIT's current yield-to-maturity of around 5.3% (as of 30 November). * Given that we have yet to see a meaningful recovery in fund flows into fixed income, this means that there is still ample room for VCIT to build on its recent gains. ============ Read the first page of this thread, in about 2 months, VGIT was the worst, VCIT came second, LQD did even better...and, drumroll, HY muni, ORNAX had the best risk-adjusted performance. Another "guess=miracle". So, if you bought ORNAX you made almost 5% more than treasuries + had better risk-adjusted performance. This is what I call FREE MONEY. BTW, almost every "expert" on TV told you to buy treasuries since Nov, almost nobody said to buy HY Munis Today was another example, rates were up, the first 3 and most higher rated bonds lost money, but most Munis were flat or made money Attachments:
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 11, 2023 10:06:12 GMT
VCIT: Strong Performance So Far, But IG Bonds Are Just Getting Started ( seekingalpha.com/article/4568956-vcit-strong-performance-so-far-but-ig-bonds-are-just-getting-started?mailingid=30207141&messageid=must_reads&serial=30207141.910081&utm_campaign=Must%2BReads%2BJanuary%2B10%2C%2B2023&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads) Summary * VCIT is sitting on total returns of 7.2% since we initiated our "Strong Buy" rating on 25 October 2022. A respectable return for an investment-grade bond ETF in less than 3 months. * When we initiated coverage of VCIT and invested in it, we invested in the fundamental idea that inflation would ultimately be transitory. * Our big-picture view of the economy hasn't changed, so we are maintaining our "Strong Buy" rating. * Expectations for normalization of Fed monetary policy should drive 5-10 year investment-grade bond yields back to the 3.5-4.0% range from VCIT's current yield-to-maturity of around 5.3% (as of 30 November). * Given that we have yet to see a meaningful recovery in fund flows into fixed income, this means that there is still ample room for VCIT to build on its recent gains. ============ Read the first page of this thread, in about 2 months, VGIT was the worst, VCIT came second, LQD did even better...and, drumroll, HY muni, ORNAX had the best risk-adjusted performance. Another "guess=miracle". So, if you bought ORNAX you made almost 5% more than treasuries + had better risk-adjusted performance. This is what I call FREE MONEY. BTW, almost every "expert" on TV told you to buy treasuries since Nov, almost nobody said to buy HY Munis Today was another example, rates were up, the first 3 and most higher rated bonds lost money, but most Munis were flat or made money Not disputing, but what you 'see' depends a lot on timeframe:
The first ORNAX, 6-month chart, coupled with the 1-month chart, indicates that pretty much all the gain happened from about October 24 to about November 18. During the last one month, all but LQD fared similarly. Overall, ORNAX and LQD were the most volatile of the group; so, as always, IF you catch volatility when it's working FOR you, that's a good thing. However, I'm not sure that this equates to "free money" unless your timing happens to be very good. Again, as usual.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 11, 2023 12:52:57 GMT
Not disputing, but what you 'see' depends a lot on timeframe:
The first ORNAX, 6-month chart, coupled with the 1-month chart, indicates that pretty much all the gain happened from about October 24 to about November 18. During the last one month, all but LQD fared similarly. Overall, ORNAX and LQD were the most volatile of the group; so, as always, IF you catch volatility when it's working FOR you, that's a good thing. However, I'm not sure that this equates to "free money" unless your timing happens to be very good. Again, as usual.
I'm glad you don't dispute it Why should I care what happened before, I sold very close to the top in early 2022. The idea is to know where you can make money at the right time. If you can make MORE money, AKA performance, with lower or equal SD, it is FREE MONEY. That's my own definition of course. On the other hand, higher dist were never FREE money, unless they have the above. I have done it for years, see ( fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/3/portfolio-performance-over-years) As Kenny Rogers sings( www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo) = know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, and know when to run. BTW, timing doesn't have to be great. There were several funds which have done it for years, several of them I held for years and are documented in the link above. PRWCX beat the SP500 since 2000=22 years, link( stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PRWCX&compare=VFINX&id=p47776760404). PIMIX beat its category and many allocation funds for 5 years, see ( stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PIMIX&compare=VWELX,VWINX&id=p45772342319) FAIRX,SGIIX,OAKBX beat the SP500 for 10 years, see ( stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=FAIRX&compare=SGIIX,OAKBX,VFINX&id=p89144839866). SCHD is another one who beat SPY FOR 3 YEARS with better performance + SD = Higher Sharp( link).
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 11, 2023 23:42:37 GMT
My ST T/A signaled a buy for bonds starting on January 4th. My LT T/A signaled a buy for bonds starting on January 5-9th. See below BND chart. Most of the bond categories I follow had the same signal. Since Jan 5th, I'm back to 99+% invested. Attachments:
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Post by mnfish on Jan 14, 2023 13:19:38 GMT
FD1000 , "My LT T/A signaled a buy for bonds starting on January 5-9th. See below BND chart. Most of the bond categories I follow had the same signal. Since Jan 5th, I'm back to 99+% invested" The chart you posted was for BND. Is that the fund you purchased?
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 14, 2023 13:56:40 GMT
FD1000 , "My LT T/A signaled a buy for bonds starting on January 5-9th. See below BND chart. Most of the bond categories I follow had the same signal. Since Jan 5th, I'm back to 99+% invested" The chart you posted was for BND. Is that the fund you purchased? No, all my money is in HY Munis. Remember, I haven't bought high-rated bond fund for years, especially not indexes. YTD: see a chart of different bond categories PIMIX,VCIT,VGIT,ORNAX,BKLN (https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PIMIX&compare=BKLN,ORNAX,VCIT,VGIT&id=p53961619293) ....and HY Munis did the best with lower volatility. Watch the chart, yesterday was a telling day, rates were up VCIT,VGIT (both IG) lost the most, ORNAX was the only up. Do I want to own PIMIX? the market is clear, HY Munis. VGIT(treasuries) continues to lag since the turning point in 11/2022, AS EXPECTED. So, in just 2 weeks YTD, ORNAX made 2% more than VGIT...selections matters. Disclaimer: I don't own any of the funds above.
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Post by habsui on Jan 14, 2023 20:37:19 GMT
TLT up 7.22% YTD..
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Post by mnfish on Jan 15, 2023 12:48:08 GMT
* “There is tremendous potential gain for Treasury securities at the long end,” Gundlach said. (copied from Gundlach thread) Wells Advisors also has Long Treasuries rated "Most Favorable" and saying the same thing.
With the 10yr yield falling from 4 to 3.5ish is it too late now? TLT is already up 14% since Oct low. If the Fed actually holds rates in this range for a year or more, what happens to these?
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 17, 2023 4:59:24 GMT
TLT+EDV could do a lot more than my funds, the volatility will be much higher. I'm just going for the hanging fruits. Since I started the thread, around the circle on the first attachment. ORNAX already made 10%. I also said there is a good chance many bond funds will recoup most of their losses within 12-18 months. All you got to do is scoop it. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 23, 2023 13:39:07 GMT
( www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-21/us-bond-market-flouting-inflation-looks-increasingly-vulnerable?leadSource=uverify%20wall). To read use Brave brwoser with TOR, or Opera with internal VPN. US Bond Market Flouting Inflation Looks Increasingly Vulnerable Traders have been slashing their expectations for inflation Inflation-protected bond auction results show different view. There’s growing concern that the bond market has written down inflation risk too far. A sharp decline in yields over the past two months is mainly due to falling inflation expectations. That means that so-called real yields, which are protected from inflation, have declined less than their nominal counterparts. Their lagging performance reflects shrinking demand for protection against rising prices. The broader bond market is also signaling that a Federal Reserve policy rate peak short of 5% will be enough to cause a recession, requiring rate cuts totaling half a point during the second half of the year. Some argue there’s no longer much margin for error. A pick up in demand for this week’s auction of 10-year inflation-protected Treasury notes suggests investors are beginning to listen. “In bonds our kryptonite is inflation,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine. “Our thesis is that peak inflation is in the rear view mirror and we suspect by mid-year or later there will be evidence the economy is really weakening and inflation is melting. A lot of tightening is still set to hit the economy at a time when it is already slowing. At this point I don’t see a reason to be bearish on bonds.” Those assumptions have helped propel the broader Treasury market to a 3.1% return so far this month, a historic rebound from last year’s 12.5% loss. Yields across the nominal curve have declined as much as 44 basis points, led by the five-year. Five- to 30-year yields are below 3.8%. “I think yields are a bit too low here, pricing in too severe a recession in 2023,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors’ US SPDR business. “And I buy into the fact that inflation will continue to roll over and pretty strongly this year, but it will remain above the Fed’s target. So I don’t believe the Fed will be cutting rates in 2023.” =============== FD: I say, sure, rates went up, but while several HY Munis made 0.6 to 0.9% last week, VGIT made only 0.2%. Per YTD, several HY Munis made 5%, VGIT made only 2.4%...and we are talking just 3 weeks.
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Post by flipperxxx on Jan 25, 2023 14:00:31 GMT
so how come on a day that BND is up nearly .5% and NMCO up 1.38%, both ORNAX and NHMAX are flat ie unchanged?
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Post by Chahta on Jan 25, 2023 14:19:00 GMT
I ponder the same thing. But there are days when TNX rises and munis are up also.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 25, 2023 15:53:37 GMT
so how come on a day that BND is up nearly .5% and NMCO up 1.38%, both ORNAX and NHMAX are flat ie unchanged? NMCO is a 40+% leveraged fund. This thread is about bond OEFs. BND? easy explanation, usually when treasury rates are down($TNX), high-rated funds are up. Munis, and especially, HY munis have lower correlation to treasury rates + many times lower volatility, which is where I want to be. Potential for better upside + lower SD...and before you jump, I'm looking at uptrends, and avoid meltdown and difficult periods First Attach: See below YTD chart, and look at the 2 circles. BND was down, ORNAX was up. Second Attach: After a huge March 2020 meltdown, ORNAX made 24% from 05/2020 to 12/2021, while BND was flat. Third Attach: 2022 was another meltdown, until 11/2022. Since 1-1-2022, history repeats itself. Pay attention, VGIT=only treasuries did the worst, BND did better and a good fund, DODIX, even better.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 25, 2023 16:44:04 GMT
In all fairness the title does not say OEF. Good answer.
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Post by anovice on Jan 25, 2023 17:40:10 GMT
so how come on a day that BND is up nearly .5% and NMCO up 1.38%, both ORNAX and NHMAX are flat ie unchanged? NMCO is a 40+% leveraged fund. This thread is about bond OEFs. BND? easy explanation, usually when treasury rates are down($TNX), high-rated funds are up. Munis, and especially, HY munis have lower correlation to treasury rates + many times lower volatility, which is where I want to be. Potential for better upside + lower SD...and before you jump, I'm looking at uptrends, and avoid meltdown and difficult periods First Attach: See below YTD chart, and look at the 2 circles. BND was down, ORNAX was up. Second Attach: After a huge March 2020 meltdown, ORNAX made 24% from 05/2020 to 12/2021, while BND was flat. Third Attach: 2022 was another meltdown, until 11/2022. Since 1-1-2022, history repeats itself. Pay attention, VGIT=only treasuries did the worst, BND did better and a good fund, DODIX, even better. FD1000 "I'm looking at uptrends, and avoid meltdown and difficult periods" What do you look for to avoid a meltdown?
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Post by flipperxxx on Jan 25, 2023 19:58:59 GMT
okay, thanks. be interesting to see how ORNAX and NHMAX react today. as for NMCO, it's taking a beating and if it closes at the current price, it'll go on a 3-line-break sell signal for the first time since it turned bullish on Jan 3. could be the canary in a coal mine, with OEFs to soon swoon too.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 25, 2023 20:43:25 GMT
In all fairness the title does not say OEF. Good answer. What I meant to say is that this is the bond forum, we have a separate one CEFs, see below. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 25, 2023 20:49:26 GMT
FD1000 "I'm looking at uptrends, and avoid meltdown and difficult periods" What do you look for to avoid a meltdown? A lot of my secret sauce is at ( fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/21/time-market). Before I used T/A (with several indicators), I practiced the following, sell any bond fund at a 3% max loss from its last top, and 6% for stocks/allocation funds. You can decide on other numbers.
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Post by flipperxxx on Jan 27, 2023 14:53:57 GMT
well, okay, leaving aside NMCO as possible future-telling coal-mine canary, both NHMAX and ORNAX are pennies away from fd's 3-line-break scenario. in both cases, all it'd take is a decline of 3 cents to trigger the downside color change, if im reading things right. ditto on the daily macds rolling over: won't take much.
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Post by flipperxxx on Feb 1, 2023 0:38:49 GMT
fyi: looks like the 3-line break method gave a sell on NHMAX today. and the daily MACD has rolled over as well. interesting to see what happens next .... i.imgur.com/jbsS3oM.pngNMCO went on a three-line-break sell on jan 25th, so it has acted like the canary at least in this instance. interestingly, ORNAX is still hanging in there, altho it is 2 cents away from a three-line-break sell itself. and it's MACD has already turned negative. hmmmm!
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Post by flipperxxx on Feb 1, 2023 16:43:58 GMT
meanwhile, overnight, stockcharts' 3-line-break chart for NHMAX has decided that it's no longer going to turn red and, in fact, NHMAX shows a .37% rise on the day, while morningstar continues to show a .06% decline, which is what Ycharts also shows. huh. go figure. no wonder fd is silent here: he's prolly just as confused by this turn of events as i am.
meanwhile pt 2: ORNAX, far from being flat on the day, is now showing a miraculous rise of .41%. but wait hold on: that's only at Ycharts. it's still flat everywhere else. it also posted a dividend yesterday which no doubt ... well, no doubt something.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 1, 2023 17:59:45 GMT
meanwhile, overnight, stockcharts' 3-line-break chart for NHMAX has decided that it's no longer going to turn red and, in fact, NHMAX shows a .37% rise on the day, while morningstar continues to show a .06% decline, which is what Ycharts also shows. huh. go figure. no wonder fd is silent here: he's prolly just as confused by this turn of events as i am. meanwhile pt 2: ORNAX, far from being flat on the day, is now showing a miraculous rise of .41%. but wait hold on: that's only at Ycharts. it's still flat everywhere else. it also posted a dividend yesterday which no doubt ... well, no doubt something. Wait….how can you see intraday prices on NHMAX?
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Post by flipperxxx on Feb 1, 2023 19:42:21 GMT
you can't. someone is getting the wrong closing prices. i am pretty sure that stockcharts.com's price is wrong, that there was a decline yesterday, and that a red bar should now be shown on the 3-line-break chart. i'm going to give it one more day to prove me wrong, but if there's a distribution today, then it'll be hard to see what's what for a bit.
btw / don't expect fd to weigh in on this until after the fact, if at all, as is his stated way of operating and his right.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 1, 2023 22:31:02 GMT
FD1000 doesn’t use 3-line break as a sell signal, I am fairly sure. I believe it is no more than 1% down from the last top. NHMAX was down a penny yesterday to $15.51. 1% down from the last top is $15.50. I would assume he is sitting and collecting interest now or possibly split by judgement.
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Post by flipperxxx on Feb 2, 2023 0:09:55 GMT
stockcharts.com still hasn't corrected it's chart. weird. meanwhile, ORNAX continues to go up.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2023 2:30:12 GMT
stockcharts.com still hasn't corrected it's chart. weird. meanwhile, ORNAX continues to go up. I have found that site to be frustrating to show 3-line breaks at times.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 21, 2023 14:28:16 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 25, 2023 18:05:17 GMT
Bowley: The end is at hand. Bears, just surrender now. ( stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/03/the-bears-are-on-life-support-203.html) "Well, since that first 75 basis point hike on June 16th, the S&P 500 is UP, not down. We've had four 75-basis point hikes, two 50-basis point hikes, and two 25-basis point hikes. In my opinion, all of it was built into stock prices at the June 2022 low. How else do you explain the significant rate hikes over the past year and an S&P 500 that is 10% higher than it was when the first 75-basis point rate hike was announced? Stop listening to CNBC and the media clowns and pay attention to those who actually do research" "Do you remember early 2016 when the market bottomed and then soared? That occurred during a period when the Federal Reserve raised rates 9 times:" "If the stock market was chess, and I was on the bull side, then I've been calling "Check" for a few months now. I'm calling "Check" one last time. We're about to witness "CheckMATE". It's time to ditch your bearish thoughts. Stocks are about to scream higher. The Fed is our wild card short-term, but once the effects of this meeting dies down, stocks will soar." wow.
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Post by bb2 on Mar 25, 2023 19:11:28 GMT
That guy is selling something. He did a good job of convincing me he's smarter than anyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (He likes punctuation.)
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