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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 1, 2021 0:58:29 GMT
There are some ProBoards plugins for post evaluations that may be tried: Post Reactions [#1287], Post Critiques [#122], Post Critiques Companion [#308]. But that may create more headaches and possible abuse. Careful what you wish for.
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Post by chang on Feb 1, 2021 1:05:33 GMT
There are some ProBoards plugins for post evaluations that may be tried: Post Reactions [#1287], Post Critiques [#122], Post Critiques Companion [#308]. But that may create more headaches and possible abuse. Careful what you wish for. I don't want to go there. M* experimented with up- and down votes during one of their many (failed) upgrades, and it resulted in silly competitions. I would rather people simply discuss what's on their minds and generate ideas and value for everyone. Just walk by people and comments that do nothing for you and don't respond, is my suggestion. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 1, 2021 1:05:36 GMT
There are some ProBoards plugins for post evaluations that may be tried: Post Reactions [#1287], Post Critiques [#122], Post Critiques Companion [#308]. But that may create more headaches and possible abuse. Careful what you wish for. Is there a way to put a "dislike" button on the posts? |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 1, 2021 1:11:00 GMT
There are some ProBoards plugins for post evaluations that may be tried: Post Reactions [#1287], Post Critiques [#122], Post Critiques Companion [#308]. But that may create more headaches and possible abuse. Careful what you wish for. I don't want to go there. M* experimented with up- and down votes during one of their many (failed) upgrades, and it resulted in silly competitions. I would rather people simply discuss what's on their minds and generate ideas and value for everyone. Just walk by people and comments that do nothing for you and don't respond, is my suggestion. Admin/chang - There is a limit to diplomacy. I would agree with you if there are a lot of members that are obnoxious. Sometimes, the group needs to take decisions to foster a community mindset. Think about it. |
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Post by chang on Feb 1, 2021 1:32:24 GMT
I don't want to go there. M* experimented with up- and down votes during one of their many (failed) upgrades, and it resulted in silly competitions. I would rather people simply discuss what's on their minds and generate ideas and value for everyone. Just walk by people and comments that do nothing for you and don't respond, is my suggestion. Admin/chang - There is a limit to diplomacy. I would agree with you if there are a lot of members that are obnoxious. Sometimes, the group needs to take decisions to foster a community mindset. Think about it. Up/down votes just create popularity contests; it was a disaster at M*. IMO the "like" vote which ProBoards offers is good enough. I really want to avoid moderation except where there is a gross breach of the mission statement. Think back to the cases where M* moderated/censored posts: the community reaction was very negative, and rightly so. I don't want to censor obnoxiousness; I think the best way to deal with that is just ignore it. There are 5 other investing forums that I know of, and some of those are perfectly happy with snark, snippiness, boasting, bragging, food fights and even trolling. I suggest people who feel the urge (and who doesn't occasionally) let off steam on one of those sites. Personally, I think the best discussions start off with a question. Nobody knows it all. I've listened to Nobel Prize winning physicists give lectures, and they humbly admit what they don't know and don't understand, and rely on collaboration and teamwork to solve problems. (And that's in a field where major breakthroughs usually result when an individual genius has a revolutionary idea.) Personally, I think a little humility goes a long way in building credibility and reputation. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 1, 2021 1:45:51 GMT
Admin/chang - There is a limit to diplomacy. I would agree with you if there are a lot of members that are obnoxious. Sometimes, the group needs to take decisions to foster a community mindset. Think about it. Up/down votes just create popularity contests; it was a disaster at M*. IMO the "like" vote which ProBoards offers is good enough. I really want to avoid moderation except where there is a gross breach of the mission statement. Think back to the cases where M* moderated/censored posts: the community reaction was very negative, and rightly so. I don't want to censor obnoxiousness; I think the best way to deal with that is just ignore it. There are 5 other investing forums that I know of, and some of those are perfectly happy with snark, snippiness, boasting, bragging, food fights and even trolling. I suggest people who feel the urge (and who doesn't occasionally) let off steam on one of those sites. Personally, I think the best discussions start off with a question. Nobody knows it all. I've listened to Nobel Prize winning physicists give lectures, and they humbly admit what they don't know and don't understand, and rely on collaboration and teamwork to solve problems. (And that's in a field where major breakthroughs usually result when an individual genius has a revolutionary idea.) Personally, I think a little humility goes a long way in building credibility and reputation. Your wish admin is our command  |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 1, 2021 2:28:14 GMT
The "danger" I see in the market is the social media crowdsourcing trades (similar to GameStop) and causing a heck of a lot of volatility. I just read that silver miners are now the target for the average speculator who is betting their rent/livelihood.. we are no longer in an investing world. God Bless Us All !!
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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 1, 2021 2:30:10 GMT
The "danger" I see in the market is the social media crowdsourcing trades (similar to GameStop) and causing a heck of a lot of volatility. I just read that silver miners are now the target for the average speculator who is betting their rent/livelihood.. we are no longer in an investing world. God Bless Us All !! Also check here, big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/195/silver-gold |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 1, 2021 2:57:54 GMT
The "danger" I see in the market is the social media crowdsourcing trades (similar to GameStop) and causing a heck of a lot of volatility. I just read that silver miners are now the target for the average speculator who is betting their rent/livelihood.. we are no longer in an investing world. God Bless Us All !! Also check here, big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/195/silver-goldThanks for the alert to the other thread YBB. This game is not going to end well because there are plenty of opportunities for pockets of the market to be stampeded by the social media-led speculators (I refuse to call those guys investors). |
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Post by Norbert on Feb 1, 2021 4:24:09 GMT
There are some ProBoards plugins for post evaluations that may be tried: Post Reactions [#1287], Post Critiques [#122], Post Critiques Companion [#308]. But that may create more headaches and possible abuse. Careful what you wish for. I don't want to go there. M* experimented with up- and down votes during one of their many (failed) upgrades, and it resulted in silly competitions. I would rather people simply discuss what's on their minds and generate ideas and value for everyone. Just walk by people and comments that do nothing for you and don't respond, is my suggestion. 100% of the few threads I've launched have been disrupted by the same poster. Look what's happening right here! We're discussing everything except the topic at hand. This is difficult or impossible for me to ignore. As I make a serious effort to launch a thoughtful thread, I'm rapidly losing interest. |
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Post by chang on Feb 1, 2021 4:42:22 GMT
Let's get back on topic. This may be turn out to be the most important thread this year. I am making another major sale today to preserve my gains and reduce equity. I want to hear every thoughtful voice regarding how to move forward when almost every asset has skyrocketed in the last 6-12 months.
Further disruptions will be dealt with. Let's not push that.
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Post by Norbert on Feb 1, 2021 7:41:43 GMT
At the risk of annoying everyone, it looks to me as if FD doesn’t worry about opinions of what the market will do. The operative question in this thread appears to be what do you think is going to happen based on current conditions. So FD has no opinion; he’s not trying to front run anything. If I‘m misstating someone’s position, it’s only because it hasn’t made clear to me. This thread was motivated by a richardsok post about market conditions. He mentioned the Covid-19 mutations surprise, Biden hostility to Oil & Gas (affecting retail costs), low insider buying, market technicals, continued Fed accommodation, etc. I mentioned high prices, parabolic charts, and investor complacency. I intentionally posted on the Market Insight forum with the idea of (you guessed it!) seeking and offering market insight. Having no opinion or thinking that it's all relative is fine. Just don't disrupt the thread with off topic posts. |
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Post by xray on Feb 1, 2021 14:55:29 GMT
We must remember that "ALL" stocks go up/down. With that said....
Some of us changed some securities in our portfolio's this morning [some that were shown to be undervalued securities] and sold [some that we added CapGains] based on weekend analysis....
In corrective markets, many of us have found, that excesses in market prices exist and we should "always" take advantage of this [IMHO]....
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Post by anitya on Feb 1, 2021 19:18:03 GMT
Hoping this is not off topic, though may not be precisely on. Annualized performance by economic cycle  Dates reflect economic cycle peaks defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Annualized total return between cycle peaks measured by MSCI USA Index and MSCI EAFE Index. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 12/31/20. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 1, 2021 21:56:02 GMT
Hoping this is not off topic, though may not be precisely on. Annualized performance by economic cycle Dates reflect economic cycle peaks defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Annualized total return between cycle peaks measured by MSCI USA Index and MSCI EAFE Index. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 12/31/20. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Anitya - I suppose you are implying 2020s will be the decade of International? |
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Post by Chahta on Feb 1, 2021 22:48:52 GMT
Hoping this is not off topic, though may not be precisely on. Annualized performance by economic cycle Dates reflect economic cycle peaks defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Annualized total return between cycle peaks measured by MSCI USA Index and MSCI EAFE Index. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 12/31/20. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. I would say on topic. I am trying to get my head around this one. Is the "2010s" the same as Dec 07, 2010 to Feb 20, 2019? The current 10 year for VTI (U.S. market) was 13.5%. The 10 year for VEU (World less U.S.) was 5%. These were funds you could invest in but a slightly longer period. Not arguing but wondering. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2021 23:20:43 GMT
www.investopedia.com/terms/p/peak.asp#:~:text=A%20peak%20is%20the%20highest,housing%20starts%2C%20begin%20to%20fall. ECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS Peak By WILL KENTON Updated Jan 29, 2021 What Is a Peak? A peak is the highest point between the end of an economic expansion and the start of a contraction in a business cycle. The peak of the cycle refers to the last month before several key economic indicators, such as employment and new housing starts, begin to fall. It is at this point real GDP spending in an economy is at its highest level. The peak is the pinnacle of the business cycle and its opposite is the trough, which represents the lowest point in a business cycle. KEY TAKEAWAYS A peak is the highest point of a business cycle and is followed by a contraction and eventual trough. Peaks are called after the fact once economic indicators have confirmed that contraction has set in and isn't simply noise. Peak to peak business cycles have been lasting longer on average for the U.S. economy. Understanding the Peak The peak is one of the four phases in the business cycle. The business cycle has no specific order as it simply repeats, but the four phases are recovery/expansion, peak, contraction/recession, and trough. Business cycles are dated according to when the direction of economic activity changes and are measured by the time it takes for an economy to go from one peak to another. Because economic indicators change at different times, it is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that ultimately determines the official dates of peaks and troughs in U.S. business cycles. On June 8, 2020, for example, the NBER announced that the U.S. economy had hit a peak in February 2020. The announcement of the peak represented the end of a 128 month expansion for the U.S. economy, making it the longest in U.S. history by 8 months.1
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 2, 2021 6:06:51 GMT
haven...If one accepts your provided definition of "peaks", is there any conclusion or viewpoint you have re current market, in your post??
Do you consider we are "at a peak"?. And if so, I note that historically, market peaks do not often coincide with economic peak dates/times.
R48
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Post by chang on Feb 2, 2021 7:11:16 GMT
Under the "Danger" category, see Ed Studzinski's latest column from MFO: Which Way to Sherwood Forest?Excerpt (for the Grantham article, see HERE):
Mr. Grantham recognizes, and I would agree, that we have reached a point of extreme overvaluation in terms of equities, especially in the United States, that there will be a bad ending. Grantham believes that career incentives in the investment banking and investment management industry as well as basic human greed will succeed in drawing investors into the markets at the worst possible time. Now investors in equities are relying on easy money policies by central banks around the world coupled with the promise of extremely low real interest rates for the foreseeable future. And those two things can prevent a decline in asset prices for now and the future as far as one can see. Really?
How will the current bubble end? Well, perhaps in the late spring or early summer, as the pandemic wanes somewhat in the face of increased vaccination, we will see the end of central bank stimulus, the economies of the world will still be struggling, and valuations will still be extreme.
Here’s the thing, to quote Mr. Grantham exactly, "The great bull markets typically turn down when the market conditions are very favorable, just subtly less favorable than they were yesterday. And that is why they are always missed."
But hey, stock market futures are up! |
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Post by Norbert on Feb 2, 2021 7:46:34 GMT
"How will the current bubble end? Well, perhaps in the late spring or early summer, as the pandemic wanes somewhat in the face of increased vaccination, we will see the end of central bank stimulus, the economies of the world will still be struggling, and valuations will still be extreme." So, we've been buying the rumor (of a recovery), but should sell the fact (because it will be underwhelming)? This does assume that Central Banks will actually end their stimulus. With this crowd in charge, it's not certain that QE will ever end. Unless there are signs of inflation.  I will watch T-Bond rate trends, as T-Bonds represent an alternative to risky assets. A big reason for last year's explosive rally was the near zero return of safe assets. Party on?  |
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Post by chang on Feb 2, 2021 7:57:04 GMT
With this crowd in charge, it's not certain that QE will ever end. Unless there are signs of inflation. Studzinski also implies that inflation is hiding in plain sight. He writes:
If the Federal Reserve is targeting inflation at or above 2% for an extended period and you have a 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond, yielding at purchase today just about 1%, your investment will decline in value or purchasing power by 2% each year, so at maturity, you will have earned about negative 1% a year. You say, well that is not too bad all things considered. But as is often the case, it is not considering all things. Rather, in the pandemic year of 2020 the domestic money supply, that is the supply of dollars in circulation, increased by 24.4%. Given that the amounts of goods and services in the economy did not change much in 2020, and if you had cash sitting in a CD or money market fund, that cash also did not change much, YOU HAVE ROUGHLY 20% LESS PURCHASING POWER TODAY THAN YOU DID A YEAR AGO.
(And those of you who do the grocery shopping will have noticed that the packaging sizes and weights continue to shrink – look at a Rice Chex box of cereal). In the sixty years in which records have been kept about such things, the money supply’s worst increase over a year was about 13.4%, during the decade from 1972-1982. In that period, the Consumer Price Index increased by slightly more than two-fold. Put differently, if you started 1972 with $10,000 of government 10-year bonds, at the end of 1982 you would have needed $23,000 of government bonds to buy the same amount of goods and services.
That 24.4% figure is pretty impressive. On the other hand, inflation doesn't happen overnight. There have to be indications in advance, that will allow investors to think and respond. On the other-other hand, maybe investors will start acting before the first indications appear (see the 1y chart for IVOL ... or gold).
Can we keep increasing the supply of money by 25% every year with no consequences, and no inflation? Doesn't seem possible. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2021 11:29:20 GMT
haven...If one accepts your provided definition of "peaks", is there any conclusion or viewpoint you have re current market, in your post?? Do you consider we are "at a peak"?. And if so, I note that historically, market peaks do not often coincide with economic peak dates/times. R48 Yesterday a government official said that the economy will be humming in 2022, per CNBC, and the stock market jumped higher. My opinion is that the market will go higher until it doesn't. My portfolio is and has been almost entirely in taxable and non-taxable bonds and has been doing well. I speculate in a small amount of equity for entertainment. |
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Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2021 12:52:31 GMT
"Can we keep increasing the supply of money by 25% every year with no consequences, and no inflation? Doesn't seem possible."
Either inflation, debt or interest rates will get us eventually.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 2, 2021 13:03:38 GMT
For those of you who measure inflation by the price of food at the grocery store, I present to you a daily chart of the price of sugar. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SUGAR&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p84782562435&a=599047373&listNum=86The trend since last may is obvious to most people so I won't dwell on that. However, my wife who ran a cash register at a local grocery store back in the '70s, claims that sugar leads the price of groceries. She is a very smart gal. |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 2, 2021 14:02:12 GMT
"Can we keep increasing the supply of money by 25% every year with no consequences, and no inflation? Doesn't seem possible." Either inflation, debt or interest rates will get us eventually. I believe the order will be first inflation, then higher interest rates to fight inflation, then the service on the national debt may bury many of us. Of course this will take a few years so for now we can party on. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 2, 2021 14:02:45 GMT
For those of you who measure inflation by the price of food at the grocery store, I present to you a daily chart of the price of sugar. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SUGAR&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p84782562435&a=599047373&listNum=86The trend since last may is obvious to most people so I won't dwell on that. However, my wife who ran a cash register at a local grocery store back in the '70s, claims that sugar leads the price of groceries. She is a very smart gal. Sugar market has 2 drivers. Consumers are one. That market is influenced by producers' [Brazil, India, Thailand, etc] export/import policies/restrictions, currencies, and consumer demand. The other is demand for industrial ethanol for blending into gasoline [i.e. gasohol]. Sugar cane, beets, etc can be turned into industrial ethanol instead of sugar and that affects supply and demand for sugar. A recent news was extra demand of gasohol in China as it is tightening emission standards. |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 2, 2021 14:07:56 GMT
My point was that there are some early signs of inflation picking up. Another one is the rising cost of labor which was reported in the most recent labor stats.
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Post by Capital on Feb 2, 2021 23:46:18 GMT
"Can we keep increasing the supply of money by 25% every year with no consequences, and no inflation? Doesn't seem possible." Either inflation, debt or interest rates will get us eventually. Well if I can get a 30% raise every year as well as grow my assets by 30% a year that will work for me. |
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Post by chang on Feb 7, 2021 14:42:41 GMT
Hi rhythm... I bought PSTIX, pyramiding the market down (PSTIX going up), during the March 2020 selloff. The goal was to "neutralize" a percentage of my equity side of portfolio. Like, if you sell 2% of a stock fund, you lowered your allocation by 2%. If you use the proceeds to buy PSTIX, you are effectively removing another 2% equity. I used PSTIX to remove about 3+ percent. After the bear market bottom, I considered stocks would most likely test the previous lows, so I continued to hold this hedge. Didn't happen. While I redeemed a little of PSTIX, I still hold it today. However, I never added to it either since. The posture is this: I don't care, and would really like , the stock market to double from here. Yes, PSTIX will lose, but my stock allocation will have huge gains. That is basically what has happened since April 2020. I always have the option of adding to PSTIX if I consider the market is making a large fall. But so far I have not felt this way. I'm keeping the option open that the next big money to be made, may be in avoiding a huge stock market collapse. But I have no crystal ball...just trying to be prepared. R48 Isn't this a little like Rob Arnott's owning PSTIX as a top holding of PAUIX back in the day? PAUIX underperformed PAAIX because he held the hedge in a market that just kept going up for years. Ultimately neither of his funds posted particularly good results, but PAUIX ("the best of Pimco") was a disappointment. I can't wrap my head around the idea of simultaneously being long and short the same assets. I share your sense of caution, so I'm just reducing my long-equity proportion. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Feb 7, 2021 15:18:07 GMT
Just noting that ‘danger’ doesn’t seem to be much of a topic anymore. Is that reason to think things are more dangerous?
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