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Post by xray on Aug 15, 2022 18:10:05 GMT
Current data (sole opinion) indicates that the market is ripe for picking up some CapGains. Some securities have advanced in MktPrc beyond their fair value....
Good time to review our portfolio's and use the "Sell/Buyback" methodology talked about in earlier posts. Those investors who bought on or near the bottom are sitting on some substantial CapGains....
Income oriented investors need to receive "both dividends and CapGains" when ever possible IMHO....
AFCG, AVK, DPG, FSK, GLP, GPP, HQH, HQL KYN, LGI, NRZ, RC and RVT ARE PRIME CANDIDATES (depending on how long you have been holding them nd what previous CapGains were taken earlier (IMHO). The number of shares we are buying back (always leaving some sh to average any new shares with) will depend on what our current analysis is indicating. Looking at my (sole opinion) current analysis data, the following star ratings are currently assigned (COB Friday): 7star, 6star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star 10star, 8star (using a 0-10star system where 0-3star is sell, 4-6star is hold, 7star is 1st buy signal, 8star is 2nd buy signal (increasing shares), 9star is 3rd buy signal (increasing shares), and 10star is considered a immediate buy "dependent on market direction)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 16, 2022 21:17:54 GMT
Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Sees Risk of S&P 500 Profit Reversal on Leverage
Emily Graffeo Tue, August 16, 2022, 10:02 AM
(Bloomberg) -- The post-pandemic market has been a story of surprises, from the Nasdaq’s uncanny resilience and the rise of meme stocks to the sturdiness of profits in the face of inflation.
The latter is a big reason stocks have bounced 12% in six weeks -- company results have avoided predictions for catastrophe, with firms defending margins as prices rose for customers. Now, new research is warning that an equally hard-to-predict hazard exists for profits on the way down, if the tables turn again and inflation begins to fall.
The issue is operating leverage, a measure of the relationship between a company’s fixed and variable costs, which is now weakening from its 2021 high, according to a team of Morgan Stanley strategists including Mike Wilson. The trend threatens to eat into earnings at a time many investors expect to be celebrating should the Federal Reserve succeed at subduing price pressures.
“Just like most underestimated the positive effects of inflation on operating leverage, we think they are underestimating the negative effects from inflation falling,” they said in a note dated Aug. 8.
While revenue growth has been strong for most sectors in the recent quarter, operating leverage, which Wilson’s team measured by subtracting sales growth from EPS growth, is negative for most sectors. Morgan Stanley anticipates this trend will continue, even though the consensus view is that margins will expand in 2023, they wrote.
Existing trends in sales and earnings among S&P 500 companies lend credence to the view. After rising roughly three times as fast as sales last year, equity analysts expect earnings to increase 9.6% in 2022 versus an 11.4% jump in sales. For the first quarter of 2023, however, the market expects to see earnings rising more than sales as margins expand.
But receding demand and sticky cost pressures, particularly in labor, make that expansion unlikely to Morgan Stanley. In other words, if a company still has to pay its workers the same rate, but demand for its goods are coming down, its operating leverage sinks.
This isn’t the first time the market was wrong about inflation’s impact on earnings, according to Morgan Stanley. Strong fiscal and monetary stimulus throughout the pandemic fueled a surge in inflation, powering strong earnings for many companies. The opposite will also likely be true, the note said.
To be sure, not everyone is convinced falling inflation will make a big dent in stock prices. While earnings may suffer after periods of declining productivity as inflation descends from its peak, multiples usually rise, implying that stocks prices don’t need to drop, according to Gina Martin Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio has climbed off its mid-June lows but is still well off its 2021 highs, Bloomberg data show.
Stocks have risen for four straight weeks amid a strong earnings season and as investors speculated that the softer-than-expected July consumer-price reading would make the Federal Reserve pivot to a smaller pace of rate hikes. Some strategists even declared that the bear market is over. But Morgan Stanley’s Wilson, one of Wall Streets most outspoken bears, disagrees.
“It’s premature to sound the all-clear simply because inflation has peaked,” Wilson and his team said in the Aug. 8 note. “The next leg lower may have to wait until September when our negative operating leverage thesis is more reflected in earnings estimates. However, with valuations this stretched, we think the best part of the rally is over.”
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2022 22:23:42 GMT
“It’s premature to sound the all-clear simply because inflation has peaked,” Wilson and his team said in the Aug. 8 note. “The next leg lower may have to wait until September when our negative operating leverage thesis is more reflected in earnings estimates. However, with valuations this stretched, we think the best part of the rally is over.”
I share the belief, but the buying continues (including the meme crowd with shorted stock). Bonds and CEFs seem to be showing new caution, though.
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Post by xray on Aug 19, 2022 20:15:28 GMT
My 8/15 posting on EC: Zacks Equity Research Fri, August 19, 2022, 9:49 AM
RC-PC +3.42%
Investors in Ready Capital Corporation RC need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Oct 21, 2022 $2.50 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
What is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.
What do the Analysts Think?
Clearly, options traders are pricing in a big move for Ready Capital shares, but what is the fundamental picture for the company? Currently, Ready Capital is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) in the REIT and Equity Trust industry that ranks in the Top 27% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Over the last 60 days, one analyst has increased the earnings estimates for the current quarter, while two have dropped their estimates. The net effect has taken our Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter from 48 cents per share to 46 cents in that period.
Given the way analysts feel about Ready Capital right now, this huge implied volatility could mean there’s a trade developing. Oftentimes, options traders look for options with high levels of implied volatility to sell premium. This is a strategy many seasoned traders use because it captures decay. At expiration, the hope for these traders is that the underlying stock does not move as much as originally expected.
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My current analysis data (COB Friday) shows EC:
7th in best total weekly analysis report 4th for current performance status 5th for dividend sustainability 5th for longer term performance trending 9th for best dividend against current performance Discount of +1.08 (need >+1.03) MTB of +1.03 (need >+1.02)....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 19, 2022 20:30:53 GMT
My 8/15 posting on GLP: Zacks Equity Research Fri, August 19, 2022, 12:45 PM In this article:
GLP-PB +0.08%
Growth investors focus on stocks that are seeing above-average financial growth, as this feature helps these securities garner the market's attention and deliver solid returns. But finding a growth stock that can live up to its true potential can be a tough task. That's because, these stocks usually carry above-average risk and volatility. In fact, betting on a stock for which the growth story is actually over or nearing its end could lead to significant loss. However, it's pretty easy to find cutting-edge growth stocks with the help of the Zacks Growth Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which looks beyond the traditional growth attributes to analyze a company's real growth prospects.
Global Partners LP (GLP) is one such stock that our proprietary system currently recommends. The company not only has a favorable Growth Score, but also carries a top Zacks Rank. Studies have shown that stocks with the best growth features consistently outperform the market. And for stocks that have a combination of a Growth Score of A or B and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy), returns are even better. While there are numerous reasons why the stock of this company is a great growth pick right now, we have highlighted three of the most important factors below:
Earnings Growth
Arguably nothing is more important than earnings growth, as surging profit levels is what most investors are after. And for growth investors, double-digit earnings growth is definitely preferable, and often an indication of strong prospects (and stock price gains) for the company under consideration.
While the historical EPS growth rate for Global Partners LP is 31.7%, investors should actually focus on the projected growth. The company's EPS is expected to grow 447.3% this year, crushing the industry average, which calls for EPS growth of 80.7%.
Impressive Asset Utilization Ratio
Asset utilization ratio -- also known as sales-to-total-assets (S/TA) ratio -- is often overlooked by investors, but it is an important indicator in growth investing. This metric exhibits how efficiently a firm is utilizing its assets to generate sales.
Right now, Global Partners LP has an S/TA ratio of 5.91, which means that the company gets $5.91 in sales for each dollar in assets. Comparing this to the industry average of 1.47, it can be said that the company is more efficient.
While the level of efficiency in generating sales matters a lot, so does the sales growth of a company. And Global Partners LP is well positioned from a sales growth perspective too. The company's sales are expected to grow 40.3% this year versus the industry average of 26.2%.
Promising Earnings Estimate Revisions
Superiority of a stock in terms of the metrics outlined above can be further validated by looking at the trend in earnings estimate revisions. A positive trend is of course favorable here. Empirical research shows that there is a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. There have been upward revisions in current-year earnings estimates for Global Partners LP. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has surged 107.8% over the past month.
Bottom Line
While the overall earnings estimate revisions have made Global Partners LP a Zacks Rank #1 stock, it has earned itself a Growth Score of A based on a number of factors, including the ones discussed above. This combination indicates that Global Partners LP is a potential outperformer and a solid choice for growth investors.
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My current analysis data (COB Friday) shows GLP:
1st for best change in MktPrc rise 1st in best total weekly analysis report 1st for current 10star rating 5th for best 10Star rating Average last Qtr 1st for current performance status 5th for Rf risk factor (safety of having in one's current portfolio's) 1st for dividend sustainability 1st for longer term performance trending Fails for best dividend against current performance (8.42% ... need >9.00%) ... Current considered overpriced Discount of +1.23 (need >+1.03) MTB of +1.04 (need >+1.02)....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 23, 2022 21:37:58 GMT
FSK on "Sell/Buyback" program: Reference: Current data (sole opinion) indicates that the market is ripe for picking up some CapGains. Some securities have advanced in MktPrc beyond their fair value.... Good time to review our portfolio's and use the "Sell/Buyback" methodology talked about in earlier posts. Those investors who bought on or near the bottom are sitting on some substantial CapGains.... Income oriented investors need to receive "both dividends and CapGains" when ever possible IMHO.... AFCG, AVK, DPG, FSK, GLP, GPP, HQH, HQL KYN, LGI, NRZ, RC and RVT ARE PRIME CANDIDATES (depending on how long you have been holding them nd what previous CapGains were taken earlier (IMHO). The number of shares we are buying back (always leaving some sh to average any new shares with) will depend on what our current analysis is indicating. Looking at my (sole opinion) current analysis data, the following star ratings are currently assigned (COB Friday): 7star, 6star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star, 10star 10star, 8star (using a 0-10star system where 0-3star is sell, 4-6star is hold, 7star is 1st buy signal, 8star is 2nd buy signal (increasing shares), 9star is 3rd buy signal (increasing shares), and 10star is considered a immediate buy "dependent on market direction)....
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Zacks Equity Research Tue, August 23, 2022, 8:35 AM
FSK +1.53%
Here are three stocks with buy rank and strong income characteristics for investors to consider today, August 23rd:
FS KKR Capital Corp. FSK: This business development company which invests primarily in the senior secured debt and subordinated debt of private middle market U.S. companies, has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5.9% over the last 60 days.
This Zacks Rank #1 company has a dividend yield of 12.61%, compared with the industry average of 8.83%.
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Comment: FSK closed at 21.90 today. Analysis data (single reference viewpoint opinion) shows market is currently moving sideways (50% up, 50% down). I have switched to Rf (Risk analysis) data for current portfolio's. Using 5 security blocks (best five Rf's first), then 2nd block (next 5 best Rf's) and then 3rd block (=15 securities total). The 16th is "cash" (using a 16 security portfolio going forward). Variation changes in "block" portfolio design will change (Weekly/Monthly) as the market and traders change....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 26, 2022 19:55:20 GMT
GlobeNewswire CrossAmerica Announces Pending Acquisition of Assets of Community Service Stations CrossAmerica Partners Wed, August 24, 2022, 4:15 PM
Allentown, PA, Aug. 24, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CrossAmerica Announces Pending Acquisition of Assets of Community Service Stations
CrossAmerica to acquire wholesale fuel supply portfolio in the Greater Boston area Approximately 75 million gallons across the supply contracts
ALLENTOWN, PA, August 24, 2022 – CrossAmerica Partners LP (NYSE: CAPL) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire certain assets of Community Service Stations.
The assets consist of wholesale fuel supply contracts to 39 dealer owned locations, 34 subjobber accounts and two commission locations (1 fee based and 1 lease). The supply contracts include approximately 75 million gallons of fuel annually through such fuel brands as Exxon Mobil, Shell, Gulf and others.
“We are excited to acquire these attractive assets from one of the leading wholesale distributors in the Boston area,” said President and CEO Charles Nifong. “This acquisition expands our fuels business in the New England market with new dealers and strengthens our relationship with several of our major fuel supplier partners.”
The acquisition is subject to customary conditions to closing. CrossAmerica currently expects the transaction to close during the fourth quarter of 2022. It is anticipated that the acquisition will be financed with cash on hand and/or undrawn capacity under the CrossAmerica revolving credit facility. The Partnership expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow to limited partners.
The terms of the transaction were approved by the board of directors of the general partner of CrossAmerica. Matrix Capital Markets Group, Inc. served as the exclusive financial advisor to Community Service Stations, Inc.
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Comment: Oil is again something to look at since the current options market on oil is holding steady at 88. Expect CAPL to hold good value and increase in MktPrc at next upturn in the market (hopefully in our lifetime).... However, always however's, Risk capital has left the market and is a sign that the market is going lower. Many income investors have already received their CapGains so there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines (probably for a while)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 9, 2022 18:37:09 GMT
Zacks FS KKR Capital (FSK) Moves to Strong Buy: Rationale Behind the Upgrade
Zacks Equity Research Thu, September 8, 2022, 12:00 PM In this article:
FSK +1.07%
FS KKR Capital (FSK) could be a solid choice for investors given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.
The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements makes the Zacks rating system highly useful for individual investors, since it can be difficult to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts. These are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time.
Therefore, the Zacks rating upgrade for FS KKR Capital basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices
The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, has proven to be strongly correlated with the near-term price movement of its stock. The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship, as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.
For FS KKR Capital, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions
As empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, tracking such revisions for making an investment decision could be truly rewarding. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Earnings Estimate Revisions for FS KKR Capital
This business development company is expected to earn $2.86 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2022, which represents a year-over-year change of 7.5%.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for FS KKR Capital. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 5.7%.
Bottom Line
Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
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Comment: FSK analysis data show that in the last 13wks FSK is up >16% (including dividend) and continues to perform well in current down market. Current analysis (single opinion) indicates that FSK is my #2 performer in current portfolio reviews (Rf very high at +1.1.91 ... need > +0.606) and has a 10star rating with a Report card rating of 85...
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Sept 9, 2022 22:22:15 GMT
Thanks for the update, X.
FSK remains on my most closely watched list, but my charts seem to contradict yours. My technicals are bullish only on the most recent moves -- for 3- and 6-months charts with 2-and 3-day intervals respectively, charts are ambivalent. The trouble here is that FSK, despite its merits, remains a more volatile actor than I like to see, making charting less efficacious -- which is why I exited it a little while back, grateful to have some gains. Now again? Dunno.
I see there's an ex-div early next week, which could be responsible for some of its recent moves.
All that said, will probably go for a small position Monday morning, given your post and Zack's #1. A lilliputian roller coaster ride never hurt nobody.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 9, 2022 23:34:17 GMT
FSK or KIO? I am familiar with both. FSK has more discount (19%) compared to a discount of 9% for KIO. Big dilemma?
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Post by xray on Sept 12, 2022 22:30:34 GMT
richardsok, Your: I see there's an ex-div early next week, which could be responsible for some of its recent moves. All that said, will probably go for a small position Monday morning, given your post and Zack's #1. A lilliputian roller coaster ride never hurt nobody. ---------- Both March and September are " TOUGH MONTHS" for dividend oriented type investors. The dividend traders are in play and these are the "Quarterly" months that many dividends are going x-div and paying dividends to current holders. I always look at analysis data against current MktPrc's to make decisions. In these type of down markets (which is continuing ... with minor corrections to the upside so far) decisions are more difficult as you are currently stating.... Bottom Line: If the mktPrc tanks (much more than the dividend being paid out ... for the Qtr) some of us normally will play the Mktprc (Sell/Buy). The dividend payout against the Mktprc's, during March/June/September/December months, has been the key in earlier decisions.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 12, 2022 22:32:45 GMT
ECE Prof, Your: FSK or KIO? I am familiar with both. FSK has more discount (19%) compared to a discount of 9% for KIO. Big dilemma? Big discount differences are nice but our analysis data is considered the ball game (IMHO). I am not familiar with KIO but will look at it and get back to you.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 12, 2022 22:43:09 GMT
ECE Prof , Your: FSK or KIO? I am familiar with both. FSK has more discount (19%) compared to a discount of 9% for KIO. Big dilemma? Big discount differences are nice but our analysis data is considered the ball game (IMHO). I am not familiar with KIO but will look at it and get back to you.... Live Long and Prosper.... FSK is a BDC while KIO is a CEF, both from KKR. I have invested in both before. Recently, I chose ECC instead of KIO. So, when I saw the news about KKR, I remembered both. That is all. I am going to defer both for now.
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Post by xray on Sept 13, 2022 14:52:06 GMT
richardsok, Additional Information this morning by ZacksZacksBest Income Stocks to Buy for September 13th Zacks Equity Research Tue, September 13, 2022, 8:16 AM FS KKR Capital Corp. FSK: This business development company which invests primarily in the senior secured debt and subordinated debt of private middle market U.S. companies, has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 5.9% over the last 60 days. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company has a dividend yield of 12.56%, compared with the industry average of 8.94%. ---------- Comment: Some of us remain at 90% cash with this difficult market (going forward). Analysis data remains extremely negative. On the positive side, some trading can be utilized using the markets "volatility" for CapGain (Sell and then Buyback again at a lower price remains in play going forward).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 13, 2022 15:06:40 GMT
ECE Prof, Your: FSK is a BDC while KIO is a CEF, both from KKR. I have invested in both before. Recently, I chose ECC instead of KIO. So, when I saw the news about KKR, I remembered both. That is all. I am going to defer both for now. ---------- Cash remains king. However always however's, observing good security performance (increasing NAV's and Bookvalues going forward) is a good signal to move a security or two from our watch list to a Buy list probability if/when opportunities present themselves (IMHO). When the market appears to bottom (if not yet holding a position) a income oriented investor can take a initial 0-2% position in their portfolio (again IMHO).... I looked at KIO and the current analysis data indicates a current hold but not a current buy at this time (as you have already indicated).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 13, 2022 15:17:20 GMT
ECE Prof , Your: FSK is a BDC while KIO is a CEF, both from KKR. I have invested in both before. Recently, I chose ECC instead of KIO. So, when I saw the news about KKR, I remembered both. That is all. I am going to defer both for now. ---------- Cash remains king. However always however's, observing good security performance (increasing NAV's and Bookvalues going forward) is a good signal to move a security or two from our watch list to a Buy list probability if/when opportunities present themselves (IMHO). When the market appears to bottom (if not yet holding a position) a income oriented investor can take a initial 0-2% position in their portfolio (again IMHO).... I looked at KIO and the current analysis data indicates a current hold but not a current buy at this time (as you have already indicated).... Live Long and Prosper.... Yes, indeed. So, I deferred it. I sold some ECC shares (200) and could be buying TQQQ today. TQQQ is struggling to go above the lower support level today. I am waiting for it to drop below 27. Good luck.
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Post by xray on Sept 14, 2022 15:15:16 GMT
Zacks Thu, September 8, 2022, 9:40 AM In this article:
CAPL +1.82%
GLP-PB -0.20%
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.
Of these, value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis to find companies that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.
In addition to the Zacks Rank, investors looking for stocks with specific traits can utilize our Style Scores system. Of course, value investors will be most interested in the system's "Value" category. Stocks with "A" grades for Value and high Zacks Ranks are among the best value stocks available at any given moment.
One company to watch right now is CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL). CAPL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and an A for Value.
Value investors also use the P/S ratio. The P/S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales. This is a prefered metric because revenue can't really be manipulated, so sales are often a truer performance indicator. CAPL has a P/S ratio of 0.17. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.25.
Finally, we should also recognize that CAPL has a P/CF ratio of 6.23. This figure highlights a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find firms that are undervalued when considering their impressive cash outlook. CAPL's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 6.47. Within the past 12 months, CAPL's P/CF has been as high as 9.37 and as low as 6.07, with a median of 7.49.
If you're looking for another solid Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing - Master Limited Partnerships value stock, take a look at Global Partners (GLP). GLP is a # 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Value score of A.
Furthermore, Global Partners holds a P/B ratio of 1.89 and its industry's price-to-book ratio is 3.21. GLP's P/B has been as high as 2.60, as low as 1.48, with a median of 2.03 over the past 12 months.
These figures are just a handful of the metrics value investors tend to look at, but they help show that CrossAmerica Partners and Global Partners are likely being undervalued right now. Considering this, as well as the strength of its earnings outlook, CAPL and GLP feels like a great value stock at the moment.
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COMMENT: Both CAPL and GLP currently have a analysis 10star rating (single opinion analysis) with a 98 and 88 Report card grade. Their risk factor to current portfolio's is 0.900 and 2.250 respectively (need >0.606).....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Oct 26, 2022 16:25:14 GMT
@haven, richardsok, ECE Prof,My earlier post on GPP (different string): GPP announced their 5th consecutive increase in their dividend. Dividend now $0.455 ($1.82/Yr), x-div 11/2, pay 11/14.... Appears "Book Values" and "NAV's" are jumping this morning (by analysis) and indicates a return to the market by both investors and traders. Some previous shown bargains need to be acted on (IMHO). With that said.... Increasing portfolio risk factor to 50% from 20% and buying some of my previous portfolio securities in my portfolio prior to 2/23 and 6/14 market crash dates.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Oct 28, 2022 19:21:37 GMT
@haven, richardsok, ECE Prof,Bloomberg US Stocks Set for Best Weekly Streak Since August: Markets WrapIsabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric Fri, October 28, 2022, 3:05 PM ^GSPC +2.44% (Bloomberg) -- A monthlong bounce from bear market lows gathered strength in US stocks Friday as Apple Inc.’s earnings report helped technology shares salvage their week and a smattering of economic data suggested a modicum of progress is being made in the Federal Reserve’s war against inflation. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose more than 2%. Both indexes are set for their longest weekly rising streaks since August. While Apple drove Friday’s relief rally, shares of Microsoft Corp. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. also climbed, snapping a two-day decline. “If you look at the drivers today, there’s a bit of an oversold bounce in some of the hammered names from yesterday,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said by phone. “But the much larger influence on tech’s leadership today is a combination of Apple, better-than-feared earnings results and a positive reaction and the semiconductor space getting a lift in the wake of everything that Meta said about spend.” Friday’s rally is a departure from the somber sentiment that roiled markets this week. Investors were on the edge as lackluster earnings from big-tech firms including Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms Inc. rolled in, underscoring the impact of the Fed’s tightening regime. Despite a mostly upbeat report, Apple too warned of a holiday slowdown, hinting at more pain to come. Data has also been mixed all week. A core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, while consumer spending stayed resilient, bolstering the Fed’s case for another jumbo rate hike next week. But a contraction in manufacturing and services, and lower-than-expected US home sales, indicated that Fed tightening is already hitting the economy. Economists are still expecting the Fed to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the fourth time in a row next week. Rates are projected to rise another half point in December, then by quarter points the following two meetings. Treasuries remained weaker as hopes of a pivot fizzled. “It is too early to expect the Fed to signal a more dovish stance,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We maintain our view for economic growth to bottom out in the middle of 2023 and for the Fed to stop hiking in 1Q23.”Beyond the USThe ECB delivered a second straight 75 basis-point hike on Thursday but dropped a prior reference to rate increases continuing for “several meetings,” an outcome that was considered dovish. The central bank has a small margin for error after German inflation unexpectedly accelerated this month to 11.6% from a year earlier -- far exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey whose median forecast was 10.9%.The Bank of Japan held its negative rate, 10-year yield cap and asset purchases at the end of a two-day policy meeting, in line with the view of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Some of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 rose 2.4% as of 3:05 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.9% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% The MSCI World index fell 0.3% CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% The euro was little changed at $0.9955 The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.1608 The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 147.44 per dollar CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.9% to $20,593.26 Ether rose 1.7% to $1,553.33 BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.01% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 2.10% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 3.48% CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $87.94 a barrel Gold futures fell 1.1% to $1,646.70 an ounce --With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Reade Pickert and Tassia Sipahutar. ---------- Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Oct 31, 2022 16:46:00 GMT
Bloomberg Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says End of Fed Tightening Nearing Farah Elbahrawy Mon, October 31, 2022, 5:10 AM
(Bloomberg) -- The end of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates is approaching, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, who until recently was a prominent stock market bear who correctly predicted this year’s slump in equities.
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March
Indicators including the inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and three-month Treasuries -- a recession indicator with a perfect record -- “all support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later,” Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. “Therefore, this week’s Fed meeting is critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely.”
All eyes will be on the US central bank, which is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday for a fourth time, while investors will be dissecting Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for guidance on future moves. US stocks have rallied over the past two weeks as traders parsed economic indicators for signs of the impact of Fed tightening, even as Big Tech earnings disappointed.
“This kind of price action isn’t unusual toward the end of the cycle particularly as the Fed moves closer to the end of its tightening campaign, something we think is approaching,” said Wilson, who was ranked the best portfolio strategist in the latest Institutional Investor survey. The rally will hold up until the next 12-month earnings-per-share estimates pull back more meaningfully, he said.
Separately, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said the potential down shift in the pace of Fed tightening, coupled with light positioning and anticipation of strong fourth-quarter seasonality is behind the lift for equity markets in recent weeks.
“In 17 bear-market rallies since 1970, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 15% over 44 days,” strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note.
The Morgan Stanley strategists expect the S&P 500 to rally to 4,150 points, about a 6% gain from Friday’s close, amid their short-term bullish call. They use 3,700 as their trailing stop loss level. Last week, Wilson said the bear market is likely to end sometime in the first quarter.
For UBS Global Wealth Management, a Fed pivot is unlikely given the very high level of US inflation.
“We expect the Fed to keep hiking aggressively until the official data shows inflation is receding,” strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note. “Even when the Fed finally does stop raising rates, it’s worth remembering that monetary policy is likely to remain at restrictive levels for some time.”
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Live Long and proesper....
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2022 17:43:58 GMT
Bloomberg Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says End of Fed Tightening NearingFarah Elbahrawy Mon, October 31, 2022, 5:10 AM (Bloomberg) -- The end of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates is approaching, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, who until recently was a prominent stock market bear who correctly predicted this year’s slump in equities. Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March Indicators including the inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and three-month Treasuries -- a recession indicator with a perfect record -- “all support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later,” Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. “Therefore, this week’s Fed meeting is critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely.” All eyes will be on the US central bank, which is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday for a fourth time, while investors will be dissecting Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for guidance on future moves. US stocks have rallied over the past two weeks as traders parsed economic indicators for signs of the impact of Fed tightening, even as Big Tech earnings disappointed. “This kind of price action isn’t unusual toward the end of the cycle particularly as the Fed moves closer to the end of its tightening campaign, something we think is approaching,” said Wilson, who was ranked the best portfolio strategist in the latest Institutional Investor survey. The rally will hold up until the next 12-month earnings-per-share estimates pull back more meaningfully, he said. Separately, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said the potential down shift in the pace of Fed tightening, coupled with light positioning and anticipation of strong fourth-quarter seasonality is behind the lift for equity markets in recent weeks.“In 17 bear-market rallies since 1970, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 15% over 44 days,” strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note. The Morgan Stanley strategists expect the S&P 500 to rally to 4,150 points, about a 6% gain from Friday’s close, amid their short-term bullish call. They use 3,700 as their trailing stop loss level. Last week, Wilson said the bear market is likely to end sometime in the first quarter. For UBS Global Wealth Management, a Fed pivot is unlikely given the very high level of US inflation. “We expect the Fed to keep hiking aggressively until the official data shows inflation is receding,” strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note. “Even when the Fed finally does stop raising rates, it’s worth remembering that monetary policy is likely to remain at restrictive levels for some time.” ---------- Live Long and proesper.... No idea what the FED decides to do, but I agree with UBS Global Wealth Management and take Powell's statements that they will do what it takes to fight inflation. The financial sales sector believes in tooth fairies.
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Post by xray on Oct 31, 2022 18:01:19 GMT
Reference: My (on Selling Begins): Post by xray on Oct 24, 2022 at 2:43pm
Comment: Buyers beware and buy to one's "RISK TOLERANCE". Some continuing to stay 90% cash, 10% market (or thereabouts using a 100k portfolio reference point) that gives current investors a maximum probability loss of 5k (correction down) with a 50% pullback (on the 10%) in the market (= new current 95k reference vs 100k original point to date). Using the "SELL/BUYBACK" (S/B) immediately process each time and going forward (on S/B of 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% etc corrections) losses are considered minimum in the scheme of things. If/when market does turnaround, buying in (reverse) cycles of buying should recoup all previous losses and then some (single opinion of course). This system of playing the market is tied to having the "BEST" previous/Current 5 securities (10% in market) by analysis in one's portfolio (past history and present going forward). Friday's close showed some big losses in the CEF world while many securities were holding their own....
Previous updated Comment: Buyers beware and buy to one's "RISK TOLERANCE". Some investors now decreasing to 80% cash from 90%, 20% market (or thereabouts using a 100k portfolio reference point) that gives current investors a maximum probability loss of 7.5k (correction down) with any 50% pullback (on the 20%) in the market (= new current 92.5k reference vs 100k original point to date). Using the "SELL/BUYBACK" (S/B) and "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING "UP" METHODOLOGY on existing portfolio" process each time and going forward (using S/B of 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% etc corrections) losses or increases are considered minimum in the scheme of things. If/when market does turnaround, buying in (reverse) cycles of buying/selling should recoup all previous losses and then some (single opinion of course). This system of playing the market is tied to us continuing to "currently" have the "BEST" EXISTING" (monitored continuously) current 5 securities (10% previously in current market) by analysis in one's portfolio (past history and present going forward). Friday's close currently showed that some major market prices and NAV increases in the CEF world were occurring while many other securities were also increasing....
One of the ways that some income oriented investors can find some interesting securities for their portfolio's is to always look at "increases in distributions or dividends" (for the past 12 months). That is always a signal that their NAV's or book values should be increasing. If/when their MktPrc's appear stable (both up/down markets) it is something to analyze for one's portfolio. With that said....
Examples: Some of us have had GLP in our portfolio's for quite a while now and remains one of our favorites. GLP again raised their dividend to $0.605/Qtr from $0.5250/Qtr. GPP raised their dividend to $0.45/Qtr from $0.445/Qtr. HGLB raised their distribution to $0.81 from $0.71. CAPL is also very stable but they have been buying our other companies and they have had to keep their dividend stable until their buying stops. All of these securities above have been discussed on these message boards for quite a while now. Buying any security at the right MktPrc is always the problem in both up/down markets. Keep in mind that the above examples works well when held "continuously" and we are monitoring over many years (or when we find them in our searches)....
Also, watch the insiders and what they are doing currently "BEFORE" any buying/selling activity. Referencing the above: -CAPL had insider Buy activity for 13,000 shares @ 18.45 (always compare to current MktPrc's) -GLP had insider Buy activity for 1,000 shares @ 28.45 (always compare to current MktPrc's) -GPP had insider had "initial statements for ownership" activity -RVT had insider Buy activity for 1,600 shares @ 13.42 (on watch list) -IRL had insider Buy activity for 25,000 shares @ 7.10 (always compare to current MktPrc's) - Heavy EOY each year (on watch list)
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Updated Information:
GLP: InvestorPlace Safe Stocks to Buy for Your Retirement Louis Navellier and the InvestorPlace Research Staff Fri, October 28, 2022, 6:57 AM Safe stocks for retirement are those that are less inclined to suffer in times of turmoil or represent a sector that is more recession-proof than others. That’s not to say that a safe stock will never see a decline – but safe stocks for retirement are more likely to withstand the negative pressures in a poor economic climate. Because these are retirement stocks, we’re also looking for companies that pay a decent dividend. Quarterly or monthly dividend payments are great sources of passive revenue for an investor in retirement. For this list, I use my Portfolio Grader exclusive tool to find the best stocks to buy. The Portfolio Grader evaluates stocks on their fundamentals, such as sales growth and operating margin, and also factors in buying pressure and quantitative factors to determine a letter grade. Just like school, an “A” stock is the best and an “F” stock is at the bottom of the barrel. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Based on the Portfolio Grader rankings, here are safe stocks for retirement to buy to help secure that happy retirement.
GLP: Current (single opinion) analysis: 10star, paying 7.95% dividend, Risk factor (Rf) >1.00. (must be >0.950) Global Partners $29.82 Global Partners (GLP) High oil prices are also giving Global Partners (NYSE:GLP) oversized earnings these days. The gasoline wholesaler and retailer is up 25% so far this year and has increased by 27% since mid-June. The improved cash position gave Global Partners the money it needed to purchase Tidewater Convenience, which allowed it to increase its footprint in the mid-Atlantic. GLP’s revenue in the second quarter was a whopping $5.32 billion or 62% more than a year ago. Net income of $160.64 million and EPS of $4.61 was also a massive improvement on a year-over-year basis. GLP stock also pays a dividend yield of 8.2%, helping push its Portfolio Grader rating to an “A.” Comment: GLP surged this morning but normally trades 26-29. Patience is a virtue....
IRL: Open ending and no longer on watch list....
GPP: Remains undervalued IMHO. Current (single opinion) analysis: 10star, paying 13.58% dividend, Risk factor (Rf) >1.00. (must be >0.950)
RVT: Some investors taking initial positions <14.00. Current (single opinion) analysis: 8star, paying 10.13% dividend, Risk factor (Rf) >0.977. (must be >0.950)
CAPL: Current (single opinion) analysis: 9star, paying 10.81% dividend, Risk factor (Rf) >0.952. (must be >0.950)
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Oct 31, 2022 18:07:13 GMT
Zacks Equity Research Tue, October 25, 2022, 9:40 AM In this article:
GLP-PB +1.98%
Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.
Of these, value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investors use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are being undervalued by the market at large.
Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today.
One company to watch right now is Global Partners (GLP). GLP is currently holding a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A. The stock holds a P/E ratio of 7.70, while its industry has an average P/E of 9.64. Over the past year, GLP's Forward P/E has been as high as 21.96 and as low as 6.05, with a median of 13.42.
Another notable valuation metric for GLP is its P/B ratio of 1.85. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This stock's P/B looks attractive against its industry's average P/B of 3.04. Over the past year, GLP's P/B has been as high as 2.60 and as low as 1.47, with a median of 2.03.
Finally, investors should note that GLP has a P/CF ratio of 2.80. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their solid cash outlook. GLP's P/CF compares to its industry's average P/CF of 6.60. Within the past 12 months, GLP's P/CF has been as high as 5.99 and as low as 2.23, with a median of 4.77.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 1, 2022 22:16:16 GMT
MoneyWise Tue, November 1, 2022, 3:00 PM
JPMorgan: The S&P 500 could surge 10% in just one day if the Fed does these two things tomorrow It’s not easy to be bullish on stocks these days for a very simple reason: a hawkish Fed.
The U.S. central bank has already announced three 75-basis-point rate hikes in a row. Market participants are expecting another one of the same magnitude at this week’s FOMC meeting. But according to JPMorgan’s trading desk, there’s one specific scenario that could send stocks soaring. The bank’s team projects that if the central bank raises interest rates by just 50 basis points and Fed Chair Jerome Powell expresses his willingness to tolerate inflation and tight labor market conditions, the S&P 500 could climb more than 10% in a day.
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Comment: Some investors have been rebuilding their portfolio's and the 10% factor would be hard to overcome should it ever happen (currently or in the near term)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Nov 2, 2022 11:16:27 GMT
MoneyWise Tue, November 1, 2022, 3:00 PM JPMorgan: The S&P 500 could surge 10% in just one day if the Fed does these two things tomorrow It’s not easy to be bullish on stocks these days for a very simple reason: a hawkish Fed. The U.S. central bank has already announced three 75-basis-point rate hikes in a row. Market participants are expecting another one of the same magnitude at this week’s FOMC meeting. But according to JPMorgan’s trading desk, there’s one specific scenario that could send stocks soaring. The bank’s team projects that if the central bank raises interest rates by just 50 basis points and Fed Chair Jerome Powell expresses his willingness to tolerate inflation and tight labor market conditions, the S&P 500 could climb more than 10% in a day. ----------- Comment: Some investors have been rebuilding their portfolio's and the 10% factor would be hard to overcome should it ever happen (currently or in the near term).... Live Long and Prosper.... That JPM quote raised eyebrows here in casa R-sok too. Now that I have been buying up Pimco CEFs and other things in the past two weeks, spending down the big cash hoard, am starting to be concerned by possible econ shocks after the midterms. What motive would Powell have to signal a slow down in rate increases when the latest job opening numbers imply more inflationary growth pressures in the labor market? And what's this chatter I'm hearing about a looming rail strike and diesel shortages? And if gasoline prices are being moderated by releasing of SPR until midterms, what happens to energy costs after the voting is over and the big tanks are mostly dry? Earnngs appear about what people expect. Where's the bullish scenario? ======================== R-48. AFAICS silver seems to have found support and, yes, it is somewhat cheap relative to gold but I don't see the bullish catalyst. For income, possible oppty to sell naked puts here on silver producers or the ETF, perhaps. My 2 cents.... not that you asked me.....
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 2, 2022 12:50:25 GMT
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Post by xray on Nov 3, 2022 20:01:56 GMT
richardsok, Something else to add to our RISK (Rf) equation: The Telegraph World ‘plunging towards societal collapse’ as era of cheap money endsTom Rees Thu, November 3, 2022, 11:40 AM The global economy is on the path to hyperinflation and risks societal collapse if soaring prices are not brought under control, one of the world’s biggest hedge funds has warned. Elliott Management, the hedge fund founded by Wall Street billionaire Paul Singer, hit out at central bank rate-setters in an apocalyptic warning to clients as rate-setters bring the era of ultra-cheap money to an abrupt end. The world economy faces an “extremely challenging” outlook and hyperinflation could result in “global societal collapse and civil or international strife”, the letter to clients said, the Financial Times reported. It said central banks have been “dishonest” in deflecting blame for the price surge from their prolonged use of ultra-loose monetary policy. Elliott is one of the most influential hedge funds in the world and is feared in corporate boardrooms for its approach to investor activism. Central banks are being forced into rapid interest rate rises to tackle inflation with the rate of price growth hitting double digits and a four-decade high in the UK. The US Federal Reserve voted for its fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase to its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday while the Bank of England followed with a 0.75 percentage point jump on Thursday, the eighth straight increase. Stock markets have already suffered a tough year as the global economic outlook darkens and interest rates are pushed to levels last seen before the financial crisis. But Elliott believes that investors should brace for a “a seriously adverse unwind of the everything bubble” because of the number of “frightening and seriously negative possibilities”. The “everything bubble” refers to the surge in a range of investments, including stocks, bonds and house prices, since the financial crisis after central banks left interest rates at rock bottom levels for years and cranked up the printing presses under quantitative easing. Investors should not believe they have seen everything from previous financial crises, the letter warned. The sudden end to cheap money has “made possible a set of outcomes that would be at or beyond the boundaries of the entire post-WWII period”. The S&P 500 – the benchmark US stock index – has plunged by 22pc this year and dropped a further 2.5pc on Wednesday after Fed chairman Jerome Powell signalled more rate increases are on the way. The FTSE 100 has been one of the world’s better performing stock indices but is still 5.6pc lower. Elliott declined to comment. ---------- Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 3, 2022 20:13:16 GMT
On the positive side:
Looking at NAV's and book values, the better securities that we analyze are still holding up fairly well. Changes in the market prices should never be the catalyst for selling a good security in a collapsing market. Traders (that trade daily/weekly) and panic type investors will always drive the market prices well below their fair value. Continual collapsing NAV's and book values should be used for any selling activities IMHO....
Collapsing MktPrc's should be looked at as possible new entry points (continuing opportunities) for dollar cost averaging "DOWN" a existing security) when our analysis shows a oversold security When dollar cost averaging to a lower MktBuyPrc, our dividend goes higher.....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 4, 2022 1:19:34 GMT
richardsok ,...who posted: "R-48. AFAICS silver seems to have found support and, yes, it is somewhat cheap relative to gold but I don't see the bullish catalyst. For income, possible oppty to sell naked puts here on silver producers or the ETF, perhaps. My 2 cents.... not that you asked me....." ------------------------------ I had noticed the "gap-up move of SLV through the 50 day MA; I was unaware of any fundamentals driving this. Now I see quickly price falling back down! If the conditions were right I might trade some---just a retiree itch! xray,...thanks for recent posts. R48
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Post by xray on Nov 4, 2022 15:09:07 GMT
retiredat48 , You might find this "very interesting" with Ron Barron this morning (IMHO).... cnb.cx/3Wpv2CZRon Barron is " FULLY INVESTED" and gives us a brief historical of why not investing can be dangerous to one's Goals and Objectives.... Live Long and Prosper....
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