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Post by xray on Nov 30, 2022 16:10:18 GMT
TipRanks
Seeking at Least 12% Dividend Yield? Analysts Suggest 2 Dividend Stocks to Buy
TipRanks
Tue, November 29, 2022, 7:57 PM
Standing here at the tail end of 2022, we can see the next year through the mist of uncertainty – and for now, that view is dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates and potential recession. Looking at the market situation, Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann writes: "We remain defensive for the 3-month horizon with further headwinds from rising real yields and lingering growth uncertainty... The growth/inflation mix remains unfavorable – inflation is likely to normalize but global growth is slowing and central banks are still tightening, albeit at a slower pace.” The bottom line, according to Mueller-Glissmann, is that investors need to take defensive postures with their portfolio additions. And that will naturally lead investors toward high-yield dividend stocks. These income-generating equities offer some degree of protection against both inflation and share depreciation by providing a steady income stream. Against this backdrop, some top-rated analysts have given the thumbs-up to two dividend stocks yielding no less than 12%. Opening up the TipRanks database, we examined the details behind these two to find out what else makes them compelling buys.
FS KKR Capital (FSK)
We'll start with FSK, a financial services and advisory company focused on the BDC segment. That is, FSK offers high-level financing and asset management to business development companies, focusing on customized credit solutions for private mid-market firms operating in the US. FSK's investment and equity portfolio is composed mainly of senior secured debt – that’s 71% of the total – and 89% of the debt investments are at floating rates. The company has active investments in some 195 portfolio firms, and the portfolio has a total fair value of $15.8 billion.
The portfolio is profitable, and in the last quarter reported, 3Q22, FSK saw a total investment income of $411 million, while adjusted net income came to 73 cents per share. Both figures were up 14% year-over-year.
For return-minded investors, FSK's strong income supports a solid dividend. In Q3, the company paid out a common share dividend of 67 cents; this was increased in the declaration for Q4 to 68 cents per common share. At the new rate, the dividend annualizes to $2.72 and gives a robust yield of 14%. This beats the current rate of inflation by more than 6 points, and ensures that shareholders will receive a sound rate of return. The increased dividend, which includes a 61-cent base and a 7-cent supplement, is scheduled for payment on January 3.
John Hecht, 5-star analyst with Jefferies, has been covering this company, and he sees it holding a sound defensive position in a shaky economic situation. Hecht writes: “FSK remains a beneficiary of rising interest rates, with a predominantly floating rate book (90%)... For every 100 bps increase, FSK should see a $0.25 annual benefit per share or $0.06 per quarter with management emphasizing rate hikes typically take 6-12 months to be absorbed by the broader economy. FSK's disciplined underwriting should offer it protection in a recession as only 4% of investments evaluated in 2022 are closed.” Looking ahead, Hecht rates FSK shares a Buy, and he sets a $24 price target that implies an upside of ~23% for the one-year time frame. Based on the current dividend yield and the expected price appreciation, the stock has ~37% potential total return profile. Overall, this high-yield dividend stock has picked up 6 recent reviews from the Street’s analysts, and their takes include 2 Buys against 4 Holds (i.e. neutrals) – for a Moderate Buy consensus rating.
Ready Capital Corporation (RC)
The next dividend champ we're looking at is Ready Capital, a real estate investment trust (REIT). These companies acquire, own, lease, and manage a variety of residential and commercial real properties, and draw their income from leasing, sales, and mortgage activities. In addition to directly owning or leasing properties, many REITs also offer financial services, especially small- to -mid-sized commercial and residential mortgages. This is where Ready Capital exists; the company specializes in mortgage loans backed by commercial real estate properties. In its recent 3Q22 financial release, Ready Capital reported a GAAP EPS of 53 cents, and 44 cents in distributable earnings per common share, along with cash holdings of $208 million. The company’s net interest income was reported at $186 million, while the total net income came in at $66.25 million. Those were sound numbers, and backed up the company’s dividend payment. Like all REITs, Ready Capital is required by tax regulations to return a high percentage of profits directly to shareholders – and dividends make a convenient vehicle for compliance. The company currently pays out 42 cents per common share, or $1.68 annualized, and the dividend yields 12.8%.
Covering this stock for JMP, 5-star analyst Steven DeLaney points out that the firm’s earnings came in above his estimates, before going on to say, “We believe Ready Capital warrants a premium valuation to the commercial mortgage REIT universe due to its multi-strategy credit origination and securitization platform." In line with his bullish view, DeLaney gives RC shares an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, and his price target of $16 indicates that the shares have, in his view, potential to grow ~21% in the year ahead.
Overall, Ready Capital has attracted attention from 7 Wall Street analysts recently, and their reviews include 5 Buys and 2 Holds for a Moderate Buy consensus rating.
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Comments:
1... FSK remains 10star and has been talked about many times previously....
2... RC failed (sole opinion) my Star Rating system Less than 7star currently) and I currently do not have in portfolio. I have added it to my watch list currently....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 17:13:50 GMT
I've always been wary of BDCs and REITs, never invested in them.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2022 17:26:43 GMT
@haven , Not trying to change, or challenge you on CII. We all have different viewpoints and analyze securities in different way. My computer analysis (sole opinion) indicates not something I would be currently investing in or want on my current watch list. I used to have Cii in portfolio many years back. With that said.... ---- Many income investors dropped out of CII at the beginning of the 1st Qtr when CII was not passing their current analysis.... Simply Wall St. Don't Race Out To Buy CI Resources Limited (ASX:CII) Just Because It's Going Ex-Dividend Simply Wall St March 19, 2022 CI Resources Limited (ASX:CII) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next four days. Typically, the ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date which is the date on which a company determines the shareholders eligible to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any transaction on a stock needs to have been settled before the record date in order to be eligible for a dividend. Accordingly, CI Resources investors that purchase the stock on or after the 24th of March will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 22nd of April. The company's upcoming dividend is AU$0.02 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of AU$0.02 per share to shareholders. Last year's total dividend payments show that CI Resources has a trailing yield of 1.9% on the current share price of A$1.06. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing. Check out our latest analysis for CI Resources If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. CI Resources paid out a comfortable 47% of its profit last year. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing? Companies with falling earnings are riskier for dividend shareholders. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. CI Resources's earnings per share have fallen at approximately 27% a year over the previous five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls. Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. It looks like the CI Resources dividends are largely the same as they were 10 years ago. If a company's dividend stays flat while earnings are in decline, this is typically a sign that it is paying out a larger percentage of its earnings. This can become unsustainable if earnings fall far enough. The Bottom Line Has CI Resources got what it takes to maintain its dividend payments? It's disappointing to see earnings per share declining, and this would ordinarily be enough to discourage us from most dividend stocks, even though CI Resources is paying out less than half its income as dividends. However, it's also paying out an uncomfortably high percentage of its cash flow, which makes us wonder just how sustainable the dividend really is. It's not that we think CI Resources is a bad company, but these characteristics don't generally lead to outstanding dividend performance. ---------- Live Long and Prosper.... Article is dated from March 2022, I sold CII and LGI in 2021 or earlier, and didn't buy CII until recently. I will buy LGI again eventually. Your posts are interesting to read covering a variety of topics. |
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Post by xray on Dec 2, 2022 20:16:54 GMT
Discussion on LGI was deleted by someone for unknown reasons....
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Post by xray on Dec 2, 2022 21:10:12 GMT
SmartAsset
Top Morgan Stanley Strategist Says This Is When the Bear Market ‘Will Be Over Probably'
Brian J. O'Connor
Fri, December 2, 2022, 12:10 PM
With U.S. stocks down more than 20% so far this year, investors are looking for some good news – and it may be coming from a prominent Wall Street analyst who says the current bear market could come to an end sometime around St. Patrick's Day. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Mike Wilson, the Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley predicted that the bear market in U.S. stocks could come to a conclusion early in 2023. Investors are taking note because Wilson, who's typically skeptical about the market, is listed as No. 1 on Institutional Investor's recent ranking of portfolio strategists. "We think ultimately the bear market will be over probably sometime in the first quarter," Wilson said on the broadcast.
On the other hand, Wilson would seem to be taking a view that's quite opposite of what other Morgan Stanley analysts are telling clients. In a late September post at MorganStanley.com, Lisa Shalett, the firm's Chief Investment Officer for Wealth Management, wrote that, "Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee believes this bear market is far from over." Wilson cited the S&P 500's 200-week moving average as the prime indicator. That indicator stood at 3,612 as of late October. On Nov. 30, the S&P 500 closed above the 200-week moving average for the first time since April 7. As long as the index remains above that average, stocks could recover to go as high as 4,150. If the index falls through the 200-week barrier, however, Wilson said, investors should take that as a signal to start selling. As quoted in Markets Insider, Wilson said, "The 200-week moving average is an extremely powerful technical support level for stocks, particularly in the absence of an outright recession which we don't have, yet."
The S&P 500 has been moving up during October, gaining between 2% and 4% on positive earnings news. After starting the year trading as high as 4,800, the index fell slightly below 3,500 in the first weeks of October before climbing back to around 3,800. In November it climbed north of 4,000. As long as this current trend of gains stays steady, Wilson said, the bear market would end during the first quarter of 2023.
In between now and then, however, comes holiday sales along with fourth-quarter and year-end earnings results. A weak holiday sales season could be in the offing, as retailers have already been discounting overstocked inventory as consumers shifted back to buying more services and fewer goods as the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed. If that were to happen, Wilson said, investors will need to place more emphasis on fundamentals, such as sales and earnings, rather than technical indicators like the 200-week moving average. If Wilson is right and stocks send the S&P 500 upward to more than 4,100 (it's currently at 4,046), that would be a significant gain over Morgan Stanley's estimate that the index will be close to the 3,900 level by June.
"We're probably more bearish than most for the outlook next year," Wilson told Bloomberg. "But we do think this tactical rally is going to be big enough to try and pivot and trade it."
Bottom Line
Mike Wilson, the Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley, says the bear market could end by sometime in the first quarter of 2023. He basis his analysis off of the S&P 500 200-week moving average.
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Comment: We live in interesting "TRADING" times currently while we wait. What I suggest (single opinion of course) is reviewing our portfolio's against our risk factors (Rf's) that we have set for ourselves. Some securities are doing rather well in "BOTH" currently with the up/down markets. Example: RSF trades normally between 16-18 and a insider took a initial position in RFS on 11/10. Currently paying a distribution of >11.5% ($0.166 Monthly/$1.992/Yr ... Last paid 11/14) for income oriented investors....
Note: RSF fluctuates in "total Analysis score" between 231-375 (need >250 to be considered investable). Currently RSF is at 257. RSF is currently rated 5star because of very limited growth probability and the higher risk factor associated with normal CEF's....
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Business Wire
RiverNorth Specialty Finance Corporation Announces Name Change to RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund
Mon, November 28, 2022, 4:30 PM
In this article:
RMPL-P
+0.40%
RSF
-0.26%
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., November 28, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--RiverNorth Specialty Finance Corporation (the "Fund") today announced that effective on or about December 7, 2022 the Fund’s name will be changed to RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund. The Fund’s investment strategy and objective will remain the same. Further, the Fund’s common shares will continue to trade under its existing New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") symbol "RSF". The Fund’s preferred shares will continue to trade under the NYSE symbol "RMPL", and CUSIP numbers for RSF and RMPL will not change.
About RiverNorth
RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC is an investment management firm founded in 2000. With approximately $4.9 billion1 in assets under management as of October 31, 2022, RiverNorth specializes in opportunistic investment strategies in niche markets where the potential to exploit inefficiencies is greatest. RiverNorth is the investment manager to registered funds, private funds and separately managed accounts.
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Business Wire
RiverNorth Specialty Finance Corporation Announces Final Results of Repurchase Offer
October 6, 2022
In this article:
RMPL-P
+0.40%
RSF
-0.26%
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., October 06, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--RiverNorth Specialty Finance Corporation (the "Fund") (NYSE: RSF), a closed-end fund, announced the final results of its repurchase offer for up to 5% of its outstanding common shares. The repurchase offer expired at 5:00 P.M. Eastern Time on October 5, 2022.
Based on information provided by DST Systems, Inc., the depositary for the repurchase offer, a total of 553,153 shares were submitted for redemption and 177,847 shares were repurchased. In accordance with the terms and conditions of the repurchase offer, because the number of shares submitted for redemption exceeds the number of shares offered to purchase, the Fund will purchase shares from tendering shareholders on a pro-rata basis (disregarding fractional shares). The purchase price of repurchased shares is equal to the Fund's net asset value per share calculated as of the close of regular trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 5, 2022, which is equal to $17.58 per share.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 6, 2022 22:37:47 GMT
Barrons.com
Morgan Stanley Is Cutting About 1,600 Jobs Globally
Janet H. Cho
Tue, December 6, 2022, 2:36 PM
Morgan Stanley began cutting about 2% of its global staff on Tuesday, or about 1,600 of its employees, according to a person with knowledge of the cuts who didn’t want to be identified. The move follows remarks by Chairman and CEO James Gorman at last week’s Reuters Next conference, when he said people were going to be let go. The cuts took place companywide, except for among financial advisors, the person told Barron’s by telephone.
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Stock Market Today: Stocks End Down As Inflation Worries Resurface; JPMorgan CEO Sees Recession
With inflation still sticky, and global headwinds accelerating, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon now sees a greater chance of a U.S. recession.
MARTIN BACCARDAX9 HOURS AGO
Updated at 4:15 pm EST
Stocks ended lower Tuesday, while the dollar gave back gains against its global peers and Treasury yields stabilized, as investors continue to worry that inflation risks remain imbedded in the domestic economy.
Monday's stronger-than-expected reading of the ISM non-manufacturing index for November, a benchmark of activity in the biggest and most important driver of growth in the U.S. economy, surprised markets and triggered the biggest rally in the dollar in more than two weeks as traders bet the data may induce a longer, and more hawkish stance on rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The CME Group's FedWatch still suggests a 79.4% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week, but bets on follow-on moves of similar size are starting to take shape, testing the market's theory that the terminal Fed Funds rate will be pegged at around 5% to 5.25% in the early spring.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its global peers, was marked 0.27% higher in late New York trading at 105.57, following on from yesterday's sharp rally triggered by the ISM data. Their moves were tempered, however, by another overnight rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia -- its eighth of the year -- which lifted its benchmark cash rate to 3.1%.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields slipped to 3.53% in New York trading, consolidating yesterday's gains, while 2-year notes were pegged at 4.366%.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC at the Business Roundtable event in New York Tuesday that the Fed is likely to hold its terminal rate at 5% for between three to six months, but noted that it might not be long enough to tame inflation. He also noted that a 'mild to hard" recession could hit the U.S. economy next year, even as he touted the strength of consumer spending, warning that "inflation could erode all that."
Further Covid easing in China, including moves to eliminate negative testing requirements to travel on public transport in the capital city of Beijing, failed to support stocks in the Asia session as markets reacted to last night's slump on Wall Street.
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Comment: There is too much negative news feeding the investing world. My analysis data (sole opinion of course) remains positive for a "TRADING" environment and shows that many securities have bottomed and should not be testing their previous lows any time soon. However, always however's, we should take the continual negative news as a "CAUTION" to what we might be doing currently....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 9, 2022 16:06:21 GMT
SmartAsset
Top Morgan Stanley Strategist: This Is When the Bear Market ‘Will Be Over Probably'
Brian J. O'Connor
Fri, December 9, 2022, 9:00 AM
With U.S. stocks down more than 20% so far this year, investors are looking for some good news – and it may be coming from a prominent Wall Street analyst who says the current bear market could come to an end sometime around St. Patrick’s Day.
In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Mike Wilson, the Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley predicted that the bear market in U.S. stocks could come to a conclusion early in 2023. Investors are taking note because Wilson, who’s typically skeptical about the market, is listed as No. 1 on Institutional Investor’s recent ranking of portfolio strategists. “We think ultimately the bear market will be over probably sometime in the first quarter,” Wilson said on the broadcast. On the other hand, Wilson would seem to be taking a view that’s quite opposite of what other Morgan Stanley analysts are telling clients. In a late September post at MorganStanley.com, Lisa Shalett, the firm’s Chief Investment Officer for Wealth Management, wrote that, “Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes this bear market is far from over.”
Wilson cited the S&P 500’s 200-week moving average as the prime indicator. That indicator stood at 3,612 as of late October. On Nov. 30, the S&P 500 closed above the 200-week moving average for the first time since April 7. As long as the index remains above that average, stocks could recover to go as high as 4,150. If the index falls through the 200-week barrier, however, Wilson said, investors should take that as a signal to start selling. As quoted in Markets Insider, Wilson said, “The 200-week moving average is an extremely powerful technical support level for stocks, particularly in the absence of an outright recession which we don’t have, yet.”
The S&P 500 has been moving up during October, gaining between 2% and 4% on positive earnings news. After starting the year trading as high as 4,800, the index fell slightly below 3,500 in the first weeks of October before climbing back to around 3,800. In November it climbed north of 4,000. As long as this current trend of gains stays steady, Wilson said, the bear market would end during the first quarter of 2023. In between now and then, however, comes holiday sales along with fourth-quarter and year-end earnings results. A weak holiday sales season could be in the offing, as retailers have already been discounting overstocked inventory as consumers shifted back to buying more services and fewer goods as the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed. If that were to happen, Wilson said, investors will need to place more emphasis on fundamentals, such as sales and earnings, rather than technical indicators like the 200-week moving average.
If Wilson is right and stocks send the S&P 500 upward to more than 4,100 (it’s currently at 4,046), that would be a significant gain over Morgan Stanley’s estimate that the index will be close to the 3,900 level by June. “We’re probably more bearish than most for the outlook next year,” Wilson told Bloomberg. “But we do think this tactical rally is going to be big enough to try and pivot and trade it.”
Bottom Line
Mike Wilson, the Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley, says the bear market could end by sometime in the first quarter of 2023. He basis his analysis off of the S&P 500 200-week moving average.
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 9, 2022 16:23:14 GMT
Bloomberg
Top Money Managers See Global Stocks Gaining in 2023
Sagarika Jaisinghani, Jan-Patrick Barnert and Ksenia Galouchko
Fri, December 9, 2022, 6:14 AM
^GSPC
+0.06%
(Bloomberg) -- Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008. Amid recent optimism that inflation has peaked — and that the Federal Reserve could soon start to change its tone— 71% of respondents in a Bloomberg News survey expect equities to rise, versus 19% forecasting declines. For those seeing gains, the average response was a 10% return. The informal survey of 134 fund managers incorporates the views of major investors including BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Amundi SA. It provides an insight into the big themes and hurdles they expect to be grappling with in 2023 after inflation, the war in Ukraine and hawkish central banks battered equity returns this year.
The stock market could be derailed again by stubbornly high inflation or a deep recession, however. Those are the top worries for the upcoming year, cited by 48% and 45% of participants, respectively. Stocks could also reach new lows early in 2023, with many seeing gains skewed to the second half. “Even though we might face a recession and falling profits, we have already discounted part of it in 2022,” said Pia Haak, chief investment officer at Swedbank Robur, Sweden’s biggest fund manager. “We will have better visibility coming into 2023 and this will hopefully help markets.” Even after a recent rally, the MSCI All-Country World Index is on track for its worst year since the global financial crisis in 2008. The S&P 500 will probably end 2022 with a similarly poor performance. The energy crisis in Europe and signs of slower economic growth have kept a lid on stock prices even as China begins to ease some of its tough Covid curbs. Plus, there are growing fears that the slowdown already underway in many economies will eventually take a bite out of earnings.
The Bloomberg survey was conducted by reporters who reached out to fund managers and strategists at major investment firms between Nov. 29 and Dec. 7. Last year, a similar survey predicted that aggressive policy tightening by central banks would be the biggest threat to stocks in 2022.
Tech Comes Back
Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management, expects 2023 to be the “exact opposite of this year.” Part of that is due to valuations, which have slumped to leave the MSCI ACWI trading near its long-term average forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio. When it comes to specific sectors, respondents generally favored companies that can defend earnings through an economic downturn. Dividend payers and insurance, health care and low volatility stocks were among their picks, while some preferred banks and emerging markets including India, Indonesia and Vietnam. After being hammered this year as interest rates climbed, US technology stocks may also come back in favor, according to the survey. More than half of respondents said they’d selectively buy the sector. With valuations still relatively cheap despite the recent rally and bond yields expected to fall next year, tech behemoths including Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. are expected to benefit, fund managers said.
Some are bullish on China, particularly as it moves away from Covid zero. A slump earlier this year has put valuations well below their 20-year average, making them more attractive compared with US or European peers. Evgenia Molotova, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management, said she would be a selective buyer of Chinese shares “at current levels,” preferring industrials, insurance and health care in China.
In the Bloomberg survey, the 10% gain predicted for stocks in 2023 would fall short of previous market rebounds, such as in 2009 and 2019. For fund managers, better news on inflation and growth could be the catalysts for a stronger performance. Almost 70% of respondents said they were the main potential positive factors. They also cited a full China reopening and a ceasefire in Ukraine as upside triggers. The emphasis on inflation and growth as the make-or-break elements is in line with the findings of Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey. It showed recession expectations were at the highest since April 2020, while a “stagflation” scenario of low growth and high inflation was “overwhelmingly” the consensus view. Such worries look warranted. According to Bloomberg Economics, the global economy is heading for its weakest performance in years, excluding the financial crisis and Covid periods. The IMF said last month the situation is rapidly worsening. “The outlook from here onward will be influenced by the probability, depth and longevity of recession,” said Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities, multi-asset and sustainability at M&G. “There are still pockets of opportunity where companies with strong fundamentals that are able to weather the storm get sold off in times of market panic.”
Heading into year-end, the market direction hinges on two key events coming next week – US inflation data on Tuesday and the Fed policy decision a day later. Some good news has emerged here: price increases have started to cool after hitting a four-decade high and the central bank has signaled it may slow the pace of rate hikes. Despite those signs, investors remain cautious, and the S&P 500 is on course to snap a two-week winning streak ahead of the Fed meeting. “A sustained rally in risk assets isn’t likely until inflation is more firmly downward trending toward target,” said Shoqat Bunglawala, head of multi-asset solutions for EMEA and Asia Pacific at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He’s maintaining a relatively defensive asset allocation in balanced portfolios. Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for APAC at the BlackRock Investment Institute, takes a similar tone, saying stocks aren’t yet reflecting the full impact of tighter monetary policy.
“We’ve had the lightning of policy tightening in 2022 and now the thunder will follow — that is to say, the damage,” he said. “Maybe we’re seeing some signs of the slowdown in exports and housing, but that’s going to become clearer next year and the market needs to price that a bit more effectively.”
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 16, 2022 18:40:32 GMT
Home Investing Stocks Mark Hulbert
Why the stock market’s painful December decline might actually be bullish for investors in 2023
Published: Dec. 15, 2022 at 5:15 p.m. ET
By Mark HulbertFollow
U.S. stocks often perform better following a weak second half of December. The absence of a Santa Claus Rally on Wall Street tells us nothing about the stock market’s prospects in 2023. The U.S. stock market has done just as well following holiday seasons when there is no Santa Claus Rally as when there is. That should provide some solace to investors who worry that Santa Claus will skip Wall Street this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.50%, S&P 500 SPX, -1.59% and the Nasdaq COMP, -1.36% all are down in December so far. There is no universal definition of when a Santa Claus Rally should appear. Some define that period as encompassing the entire month of December, while others focus just on the second half of the month. Still others define this period as the week between Christmas and New Year’s. Regardless of how it’s defined, I found no statistically significant correlation between the stock market’s performance in the Santa Claus Rally period and its return during the subsequent year. In fact, there is modest evidence that the stock market actually performs slightly better following market declines during the Santa Claus Rally period. This is illustrated in the accompanying chart (not available), which is based on the definition of the Santa Claus Rally period as the second half of December. Because the differences plotted in the chart are not significant at the 95% confidence level, you shouldn’t celebrate poor stock-market performance at Christmastime. But the chart nevertheless illustrates why the lack of a Santa Claus visit is not a reason for special concern.
Santa and the bear
What about this year in particular, with the major U.S. market averages suffering double-digit losses? To provide an answer, I focused on just those calendar years in which the Dow declined. The same overall pattern emerged as when I focused on all years. Consider, for example, those years in which the Dow declined for the full year but rose in the last two weeks of December. In the subsequent year, the Dow gained 7.3% on average. Following down years in which the stock market declined during the last two weeks of December, in contrast, the Dow posted a gain of 11.9% on average over the next 12 months. Once again, these differences are not statistically significant.
The bottom line?
The current bear market may very well extend into 2023, and even beyond. But that possibility has become no more probable just because the stock market is struggling as we approach Christmas.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 20, 2022 22:05:53 GMT
Zacks
Bull of the Day: Global Partners (GLP)
Jeremy Mullin
Tue, December 20, 2022, 6:30 AM EST
Global Partners (GLP) is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that is an adaptive distribution energy company. Global Partner’s focus is to source low-cost energy in bulk and then transport products through its vertically integrated adaptive distribution network to wholesale, commercial and retail customers.
Despite the recent pullback in crude oil, the stock is trading just under its 2022 highs. The relative strength in the name is very evident, which signals further gains in 2023. Additionally, a recent earnings report and surging earnings estimates is bringing more attention to the name.
More about GLP
Global Partners was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Waltham, MA. The company focuses on the regions of New England, New York and the Mid-Atlantic. Global employs over 2400 people and has a market cap of $1.1 Billion.
The company has its hand in all aspects of the energy markets. They purchase, sell, gather, blend, store, and transport gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, and propane to wholesalers, retailers, and commercial customers.
The stock has a Zacks Style Score of “A” in Growth, Momentum and Value. Global Partners currently pays a 7.5% dividend.
Earnings Momentum
On November 4th, GLP reported a 135% EPS beat for Q3. Earnings came in at $3.12 v the $0.86 a year ago. Revenues came in at $4.3 billion v the $3.32 billion last year. EBITDA climbed to $168.5M from $79.2M last year.
The Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment performed well in Q3. The company saw increased activity at its convenience stores and higher retail fuel margins year-over-year.
Management commented that the for the Wholesale segment, fuel inventory was managed effectively despite sustained backwardation in the gasoline and distillates markets. They added that the Commercial segment saw a year-over-year increase in bunkering activity.
The earnings beat was the fifth in a row and the eighth out of the last ten quarters. Since that streak begun, the stock is up over 130%.
Estimates Rising
After the big earnings report, analysts started to take estimates higher across all time frames. For the current quarter, numbers have been taken 197% higher over the last 60 days, from $0.47 to $1.40. For the current year, they have gone from $7.17 to $9.88, a 38% rise, over that same time frame This is a steady improvement that will continue into next year. Over the last 60 days, next year’s numbers have gone from $2.91 to $3.20.
The Technical Take
The relative strength in the name as crude oil prices head lower is telling. Investors are buying this name and anticipate the stock is heading back to the 2014 all-time highs of $45.75. For those looking to buy pullbacks, the moving averages have been fairly reliable. While the 200-day MA has cracked twice, the bulls reclaimed that level and the stock continues its march higher. The 50-day has been holding since October and the 21-day MA has been short-term support for a majority of November. The current 200-day is just under $28 and would likely find support it markets sold off. The 50-day $30.50 is one to watch for really bullish investors as the stock might be too strong to see a big sell off below the $30 level. Upside Fibonacci targets drawn from the COVID sell off are $41.25 and $62.50
In Summary
Global Partners offers investors an opportunity to get that energy exposure and get paid a hefty dividend. The company has posted consecutive quarters of strong cash flows and is looking to increase its scale through acquisitions. In 2022, stocks showing relative strength typically go on to outperform the market. There is no reason to think that 2023 will be any different and being invested in the energy space will likely continue to reap rewards.
Look for GLP to close out the year strong and be a top performer in 2023.
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Comment: GLP had insider buying activity on 11/25 for 10,000sh at 30.20 and 32.13. Use the SEARCH bar at the top of the webpage to get earlier history, dividend increases and earlier postings....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 20, 2022 22:12:02 GMT
Zacks
Why Fast-paced Mover Global Partners LP (GLP) Is a Great Choice for Value Investors
Zacks Equity Research
Mon, December 19, 2022, 8:50 AM EST
Momentum investing is essentially the opposite of the tried-and-tested Wall Street adage -- "buy low and sell high." Investors following this investing style typically avoid betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. They believe instead that one could make far more money in lesser time by "buying high and selling higher."
Who doesn't like betting on fast-moving trending stocks? But determining the right entry point isn't easy. Often, these stocks lose momentum once their valuation moves ahead of their future growth potential. In such a situation, investors find themselves loaded up on expensive shares with limited to no upside or even a downside. So, going all-in on momentum could be risky at times. A safer approach could be investing in bargain stocks with recent price momentum. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system) helps identify great momentum stocks by paying close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.
Global Partners LP (GLP) is one of the several great candidates that made it through the screen. While there are numerous reasons why this stock is a great choice, here are the most vital ones: Investors' growing interest in a stock is reflected in its recent price increase. A price change of 7.9% over the past four weeks positions the stock of this company well in this regard. While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. GLP meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 30.8% over the past 12 weeks. Moreover, the momentum for GLP is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 1.37. This indicates that the stock moves 37% higher than the market in either direction.
Given this price performance, it is no surprise that GLP has a Momentum Score of A, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success. In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped GLP earn a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, GLP is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. GLP is currently trading at 0.06 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 6 cents for each dollar of sales.
So, GLP appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jan 16, 2023 19:01:48 GMT
Current analysis data shows some positive changes (from the older 2022 holdings) that were not really expected this early:
Examples:
AFCG
AVK (has EOY attached)
DPG
GPP
LGI (has EOY attached)
RC
THW
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jan 21, 2023 19:46:05 GMT
@haven,richardsok,ECE Prof,uncleharley,retiredat48,
My: Post by xray on Jan 16, 2023 at 2:01pm Current analysis data shows some positive changes (from the older 2022 holdings) that were not really expected this early: Examples: AFCG AVK (has EOY attached) DPG GPP LGI (has EOY attached) RC THW ---------- Let the Dividends/Distributions of R72/MkrPrc's Begin
Examples Updated from 12/31/22: ....................................................... 12/31/22 (NAV/MktPrc if a CEF) .................. COB 1/20/23AFCG................................................ 15.73 ........................................................ 15.91 AVK (has EOY attached)...................... 12.31/10.90 ............................................... 13.04/12.30 DPG ................................................. 12.45/13.51 ............................................... 12.54/13.83 GPP ................................................. 12.96 ......................................................... 13.30 LGI (has EOY attached) ...................... 16.01/14.64 ................................................ 16.92/15.58 RC ................................................... 11.14 ......................................................... 12.54 THW ................................................ 13.12/14.65 ................................................ 13.16/14.71 Comments: Markets remain volatile and are expected to remain so during the 1st Qtr (and possibly the 2nd Qtr). Income oriented investors must remain cautious when buying/selling any securities during this period. Some portfolio's for dividend/distribution remain 50-75% invested, in starting their individual portfolio's for 2023, when measuring individual " Risk Tolerance".... Watch NAV's (and "Book Values") and " NOT" the MktPrc's as the traders will trade daily and/or weekly and the volatile MktPrc's will " NOT" reflect the true value off the securities in the portfolio's IMHO.... -------------------------------- Business Wire Green Plains Partners Declares Quarterly Distribution Thu, January 19, 2023, 4:20 PM EST GPP +0.19% OMAHA, Neb., January 19, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Green Plains Partners LP (NASDAQ:GPP) today announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.455 per unit on all of its outstanding common units for the fourth quarter of 2022, or $1.82 per unit on an annualized basis. The distribution is payable on February 10, 2023, to unitholders of record at the close of business on February 3, 2023. This release serves as a qualified notice to nominees under Treasury Regulation Section 1.1446-4(b). Please note that 100% of Green Plains Partners’ distributions to foreign investors are attributable to income that is effectively connected with a U.S. trade or business. Accordingly, all of the partnership’s distributions to foreign investors are subject to U.S. federal income tax withholding at the highest effective tax rate. About Green Plains Partners LP Green Plains Partners LP (NASDAQ:GPP) is a fee-based Delaware limited partnership formed by Green Plains Inc. to provide fuel storage and transportation services by owning, operating, developing and acquiring ethanol and fuel storage terminals, transportation assets and other related assets and businesses. For more information about Green Plains Partners, visit www.greenplainspartners.com. ---------------------------------- Live Long and Prosper....
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