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Post by Fearchar on Mar 20, 2022 18:39:12 GMT
This thread is intended to be a catch all for the monthly PIMCO UNII reports. In the past, I created a new thread each month, but I'd rather just add to a common thread each month. Also, I'm now tracking the various tax free CEFs. It's all in a spreadsheet that is fairly easy to update. The key column is labeled "AvgCvDist". Mathematically, this is the average of the most recent 3 month, 6 month and Year to Date coverage ratio's multiplied by the distribution ratio. The distribution ratio is fairly straightforward and is based on the most recent share price. I also included the NAV and the Prema, which is how much the share price trades above or below the NAV percentage wise. Maybe somebody can help me. The NAV's are captured from TDAmeritrade, where I've set up a watch list. Problem is PMX. Normally, the symbol for NAV is xPPPx, where PPP is the symbol for the share price. This does not work for PMX. I'm guessing, who ever it is that assigns symbols does not like XPMXX. Too many xx's??? Anyhow, here is the latest report. PDO has the best average covered distribution rate and is also trading at a discount. I already own a small position in it and may buy more in the near term. PDI has the next highest average covered distribution, but is trading at a 6% premium. My next best pick after PDO would be PFN. Good coverage and only a 3% premium. Personally, I'm in no rush to BUY anything right now as I am convinced that better prices should be available sometime in the next year. Of course, I could be wrong on this, and it could be 3 years before great prices may be had. Just my opinion of course.... but recent experiences have clearly shown that patience is key!!! I'm in New York state (Upstate thank God!) , so I really should pay attention to the PIMCO muni funds. However, I'm also hoping my income level could be really low since I'm not currently working. So, limited appeal at the moment.
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Post by richardsok on Mar 20, 2022 18:46:18 GMT
Excellent idea, fear. Looking forward to the next UNII numbers.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 20, 2022 23:42:04 GMT
Fearchar, thank you.. this is a wonderful thread, and a wonderful start. I do own PDI, PTY and PDO. Haven't sold any though under water right now.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 21, 2022 1:02:07 GMT
thanks steadyeddy, I've now figured out the symbol for PMX NAV; it's XPMQX
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2022 4:22:20 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Apr 17, 2022 0:35:44 GMT
Anomaly of the week: PDO blows away coverage and UNII numbers, yet continues dropping in price, establishing 8% discount. IMO a compelling buy -- when its chart finally finds support. Putting this one at the top of my daily watch list. As for munis, PMF continues its plunge, now erasing its long-time premium and selling at par. Watching this one too. Would be great to have a fully-earned 7% muni bought at historic low. Wouldn't ask for more.
Second surprise: that this thread isn't a-buzz with chatter.
Thanks for the link, Fear. Much appreciated.
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Post by Fearchar on Apr 17, 2022 1:00:25 GMT
richardsok, Sometimes I receive a timely email from PIMCO when the UNII report comes out, but not this time. Thanks for alerting me to this. Yes; PDO had another great month and when averaging coverage periods has the highest covered distribution rate. Especially encouraging when one considers the discount. However, I suspect the prices are following the broader debt market. Hard to say when they will turn. 4.02% of my port is in PIMIX at the last check. 3.93% in PDO 1.26% in PDI 61.78% Cash Here is my PIMCO spreadsheet.
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Post by nobhead on Apr 17, 2022 1:33:40 GMT
I have attached the UNII report as a pdf file for those without Excel.
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Post by chang on Apr 17, 2022 7:11:42 GMT
Anomaly of the week: PDO blows away coverage and UNII numbers, yet continues dropping in price, establishing 8% discount. IMO a compelling buy -- when its chart finally finds support. Putting this one at the top of my daily watch list. As for munis, PMF continues its plunge, now erasing its long-time premium and selling at par. Watching this one too. Would be great to have a fully-earned 7% muni bought at historic low. Wouldn't ask for more. Second surprise: that this thread isn't a-buzz with chatter. Thanks for the link, Fear. Much appreciated. When I get back into munis it will likely be through CEFs. NMZ is now down to its 2020-crash price, go figure! Someday (soon?) muni CEFs are going to be a nice income generator. And deliver CGs like in the Whitney Bottom days.
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Post by richardsok on Apr 17, 2022 11:54:05 GMT
True dat. NMZ at current levels has deeper discount and better yield than PMF. Only immediately visible fly in the ointment: NMZ has some exposure to Chicago Bd of Ed bonds -- any Chi-town debt is pure poison, the forever poster child for corrupt urban mismanagement. OTOH, PMF has an even larger exposure to Illinois bonds, only marginally better.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 17, 2022 13:10:46 GMT
Look at core-plus munis NVG, NZF and HY NMZ. Unexpectedly, NVG, NZF have taken worse hits than NMZ. But nothing is as expected in this market. I remain a fan of the newer term-structure CEFs such as PDO. Their discounts are guaranteed to close after a few years, so that is a bonus. Investors don't realize this and sell them with all other CEFs. Just look at recent crazy pricing of the newest PAXS.LINK YTD
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2022 15:07:37 GMT
I sold my PDO at a small loss. The term-structure feature is attractive, but the NAV keeps dropping. I was concerned that the NAV at maturity could be lower than the current discounted price if rates increase by a lot. The muni CEFs are also getting interesting, but I recall that yields of 6.5-7% were common when I first invested in them. We seem to be headed back there, and perhaps even higher.
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Post by richardsok on Apr 17, 2022 15:17:19 GMT
Agree, yogi, but certainly wasn't about to hold a big position in it to bleed and bleed on its way down. Interesting, now at 16.33, we're back in spitting distance of its recent low at 15.97. Short term signals show no sign of strengthening, but longer term tech theory would suggest a buy oppty NOW and sell at small loss on any dip below 16 and repeat, if necessary at about 15.70 or so, to accept small losses in order to capture the big bottom -- but that doesn't account for anticipation of more Fed hikes ahead.
As an aside, I just got a call from Merrill Lynch on Thursday demanding that I reduce my over-large cash position and buy something. (But they won't let me go short or buy TBF, SARK, GDMN, RJA, etc etc.)
Also considering, in ML or in other accounts: SPHD TYG ING TKC EDOG VIV VPV GLP-a KNOP GLNG GDMN.
Skip: agree with yr outlook.
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Post by chang on Apr 17, 2022 15:54:51 GMT
Agree, yogi, but certainly wasn't about to hold a big position in it to bleed and bleed on its way down. Interesting, now at 16.33, we're back in spitting distance of its recent low at 15.97. Short term signals show no sign of strengthening, but longer term tech theory would suggest a buy oppty NOW and sell at small loss on any dip below 16 and repeat, if necessary at about 15.70 or so, to accept small losses in order to capture the big bottom -- but that doesn't account for anticipation of more Fed hikes ahead. As an aside, I just got a call from Merrill Lynch on Thursday demanding that I reduce my over-large cash position and buy something. (But they won't let me go short or buy TBF, SARK, GDMN, RJA, etc etc.) Also considering, in ML or in other accounts: SPHD TYG ING TKC EDOG VIV VPV GLP-a KNOP GLNG GDMN. Skip: agree with yr outlook. My buy list intersects with yours in one name: ING.
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Post by Fearchar on Apr 17, 2022 17:11:30 GMT
There really isn't a whole lot of panic in the market right now, and that is what makes me cautious.
On the other hand, there is a lot of cash and that can lead to surprises.
Mortgages could go higher as they did between 2003-2008 and that would drive the entire debt market to higher rates.
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fat
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Post by fat on Apr 18, 2022 15:32:32 GMT
Excellent info here. Many thanks. Are you familiar with the CALAMOS funds; also in the CEF category with most of their funds 5 and 4 Morningstar rated with similar dividends. I would be very grateful for some similar info on these CEFs to that you provide for the Pimco. But, no question that the Pimco products are the 'pick of the litter' in CEFs. Thanks again for your outstanding work.
fat
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Post by johnsmith on May 3, 2022 14:15:29 GMT
"I just got a call from Merrill Lynch on Thursday demanding that I reduce my over-large cash position and buy something."
Why would they do that? In the past I have parked money in MINT.
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Post by richardsok on May 3, 2022 23:19:07 GMT
"I just got a call from Merrill Lynch on Thursday demanding that I reduce my over-large cash position and buy something."
Why would they do that? In the past I have parked money in MINT.
ML takes their monthly fee by a percentage of the non-cash assets in my accounts. Cash sitting idle in an account earns ML nothing. Further, b/c of the size of my account and the fact that I make my own investment choices and research (not depending on my broker's guidance) I was able to significantly reduce the fees they charge. They must regard me as marginal and keep me around in hopes my heirs will stay with them. Happens lots of times, I imagine.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2022 20:22:33 GMT
PIMCO's May 2022 UNII report appeared several days ago with happily large positive coverage numbers for the taxable FI CEF's .... www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/closed-end-funds . Note that these fund's fiscal year ends mid-year, so their YTD coverage numbers are meaningful. BTW ... any chance on keeping this thread useful by keeping it on topic? Actually, any chance on keeping this CEF sub-forum useful by moving the large info-dumps on non-CEF matters elsewhere?? --- Frank
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Post by richardsok on Jun 16, 2022 21:47:37 GMT
PCM 30-Jun-22 $0.91 $0.11 $0.080000 96.47% 97.34% 104.27% PTY 30-Jun-22 $1.50 $0.32 $0.118800 162.84% 134.06% 127.83% PCN 30-Jun-22 $1.28 $0.19 $0.112500 152.14% 128.57% 116.65% PDI 30-Jun-22 $2.71 $0.71 $0.220500 180.09% 143.38% 116.79% PHK 30-Jun-22 $0.52 $0.05 $0.048000 148.41% 114.89% 109.57% PFL 30-Jun-22 $0.92 $0.09 $0.081400 147.19% 121.45% 111.16% PFN 30-Jun-22 $0.80 $0.06 $0.071800 144.10% 122.54% 108.55% RCS 30-Jun-22 $0.54 ($0.02) $0.051000 156.78% 131.43% 96.56% PGP 30-Jun-22 $0.77 $0.17 $0.069000 148.19% 94.50% 102.45% PDO 30-Jun-22 $2.24 $0.82 $0.118400 258.97% 192.33% 173.09% PAXS 30-Jun-22 $0.37 $0.14 $0.116700 N/A N/A 106.51%
Yet even with these numbers out, PDO dropped another 3.5% today. Don't understand it.
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Post by Fearchar on Jun 16, 2022 22:11:54 GMT
richardsok, It's the market!!! When the tide comes in all ships ride higher. When the tide goes out all ships go lower.
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Post by anitya on Jun 22, 2022 3:06:34 GMT
I have not been following PDI internals for a year or more. It would be great if somebody can share how it is structured these days in terms of the NAV behavior vis-a-vis interest rates, high yield, MBS, etc.?
Based on past experience, I am assuming it is still hedged for its borrowing costs (i.e., pay fixed swaps).
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Post by anitya on Jun 24, 2022 8:29:48 GMT
PIMCO NAV marks on Thursday defy price performance biggly. This has happened a few times recently. When I owned these pups, I used to be able to guess the direction of the daily NAV marks but now I am completely clueless. May be I need to get acquainted with the internals again, however stale they may be.
It is possible this is a sign the retail crowd has called the bottom on the prices of these pups - prices leading NAVs on the way up?
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Post by Fearchar on Jun 24, 2022 13:41:21 GMT
PIMCO NAV marks on Thursday defy price performance biggly. This has happened a few times recently. When I owned these pups, I used to be able to guess the direction of the daily NAV marks but now I am completely clueless. May be I need to get acquainted with the internals again, however stale they may be. It is possible this is a sign the retail crowd has called the bottom on the prices of these pups - prices leading NAVs on the way up? This board might collectively be considered the retail crowd. So, I don't think we're calling a bottom. If we do call a bottom, it will probably be announced a year afterwards
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Post by anitya on Jun 24, 2022 15:15:31 GMT
PIMCO NAV marks on Thursday defy price performance biggly. This has happened a few times recently. When I owned these pups, I used to be able to guess the direction of the daily NAV marks but now I am completely clueless. May be I need to get acquainted with the internals again, however stale they may be. It is possible this is a sign the retail crowd has called the bottom on the prices of these pups - prices leading NAVs on the way up? Seems like it!
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Post by anitya on Jun 24, 2022 19:46:19 GMT
PIMCO NAV marks on Thursday defy price performance biggly. This has happened a few times recently. When I owned these pups, I used to be able to guess the direction of the daily NAV marks but now I am completely clueless. May be I need to get acquainted with the internals again, however stale they may be. It is possible this is a sign the retail crowd has called the bottom on the prices of these pups - prices leading NAVs on the way up? This board might collectively be considered the retail crowd. So, I don't think we're calling a bottom. If we do call a bottom, it will probably be announced a year afterwards I wrote in the middle of the night and may or may not have meant "the" vs "a" bottom. But what is your excuse for overreading my message to include all investible assets under the sun. I am not sure Board members who do not invest in PIMCO CEFs can self certify themselves to call a or the bottom on these pups! Not a comment on you but I recognize the entertainment nature of the social media.
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Post by anitya on Jun 28, 2022 0:57:54 GMT
PIMCO NAV marks on Thursday defy price performance biggly. This has happened a few times recently. When I owned these pups, I used to be able to guess the direction of the daily NAV marks but now I am completely clueless. May be I need to get acquainted with the internals again, however stale they may be. It is possible this is a sign the retail crowd has called the bottom on the prices of these pups - prices leading NAVs on the way up? Seems like it! Still seems like it. The PIMCO widgets prices are up three days in a row, while the NAVs drop, rise, and drop again. The guys in this board that have been buying these may see their fortunes turn for good. Me? I still have no position in these. Not for lack of conviction but for lack of focus.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 30, 2022 1:54:31 GMT
Someone from Capecod, who typically owns things like PDI, posted the following today:
"I had a long talk with myself last night and said, "Self, you are doing what you have criticized others for and advised against for years. You are sitting here nearly 95% long on the biggest most effective weekly MACD sell signal in memory. AND if you lighten up, all you can lose is some opportunity versus just risking more real capital losses on a bearish signal. Of course it's nutty to be selling ANY 10-11-12 % earning portfolios, but we are way past such concerns in this market --- this is pure market dynamics." So I just went through and sold 35% of everything. Doesn't feel smart, but I was just getting poorer ignoring rules that worked for decades."
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Hmmm.
R48
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Post by richardsok on Jul 1, 2022 15:59:56 GMT
Merrill Lynch out with a new CEF report for its customers. I quote their summary ----
"......Where we see the most opportunity Muni bond CEFs look attractive as governments are flush with cash and current losses look over-extended (NMCO, MFM, NVG). Senior loan CEFs should continue to benefit from floating-rate holdings as rates move higher and discounts are more than 1 standard deviation below average (VVR, EFT). Master limited partnership (MLP) CEFs are well-positioned to benefit from improved capital discipline and structural resource tailwinds (KYN, NML). "
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2022 4:19:02 GMT
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