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Post by stripermannh on Feb 1, 2023 15:07:08 GMT
I'm not nearly the expert at analyzing CEF's as you guys but the long term trends for PDI look good to me, during both good and bad times. See trend data here. cefdata.com/funds/pdi/
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Post by Chahta on Feb 1, 2023 15:19:17 GMT
PTY price is relentlessly climbing. stripermannh , thanks for the link.
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Post by stripermannh on Feb 1, 2023 15:50:43 GMT
I've been watching PTY but not a fan of the long term decline in it's NAV, or it's current premium. The divi looks good.
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Post by marpro on Feb 1, 2023 16:30:08 GMT
I'm not nearly the expert at analyzing CEF's as you guys but the long term trends for PDI look good to me, during both good and bad times. See trend data here. cefdata.com/funds/pdi/
Thanks for the link. I checked it. Cash flow keeps on going.
You know why? The coverage ratio has gone up for PDI to 100%. I always believed in the PIMCO's management. I will not be surprised, if UNII keeps increasing from now on because it has become negative to zero. What is next above zero? steelpony10 will be happy now. There may be others, not so, because they cashed some last week.
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Post by Fearchar on Feb 17, 2023 22:07:39 GMT
Jan UNII numbers just came out. I don't have access to my spreadsheet, but here are the rolling 3month coverage ratios for the CEF I follow the closest: PDI 24% PDO 33% PCM 74% PTY 35%
So, the Dec coverage for PTY was a fluke However, 35% is not good. PDI and PDO continue to take it on the chin and have fallen yet lower PCM is not doing very well either.
Wild PGP has best coverage. Muni's are not doing well either despite recent cuts to their distributions, which is a huge risk right now with a number of the taxables.
I have no meaningful CEF positions and no plans to initiate either. Best of luck to everybody holding!
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Post by marpro on Feb 17, 2023 23:55:43 GMT
I googled and downloaded the report.
It seems that we, who own a lot of fixed income CEFs, seem to be eating the seed corn now. Even the ones with the highest average (some municipal funds), are 25% underwater. What happened to all those high-flying UNII numbers of October 2022? However, I have full confidence that PIMCO guys will come through in the future, sooner than later.
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Post by shridog on Feb 18, 2023 16:03:10 GMT
For example, on 12/31/22 the NAV of PDI was 17.71. On 1/31/23 the NAV was 18.23. Add back the .22 Distribution in Jan and the increase in NAV was .82. I think Capecod (Dick) uses this metric to show that the black box in Pimco CEFs makes using UNII unreliable for evaluating the strength of the dividend. Please correct me if I am wrong.
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Post by marpro on Feb 18, 2023 16:14:10 GMT
For example, on 12/31/22 the NAV of PDI was 17.71. On 1/31/23 the NAV was 18.23. Add back the .23 Distribution in Jan and the increase in NAV was .83. I think Capecod (Dick) uses this metric to show that the black box in Pimco CEFs makes using UNII unreliable for evaluating the strength of the dividend. Please correct me if I am wrong. NAV went up but has declined recently again because of the monthly distribution.
The NAV went to a low of $17.72, and it went up to $18.42. It has declined again to $18.04. Basically, PDI is distributing more than its earnings without too much deterioration of its value. That is why the premium is still above 13%. I expect UNII to come back sooner than later. How can the cash of last October disappear so soon? I have full confidence on the PIMCO managers instead of the traders, who do not know what is in the black box. I am staying in the lane.
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Post by newtecher on Feb 18, 2023 16:14:44 GMT
Given the recent UNII coverage reports, a cut in distributions is still quite possible but not guaranteed. With the recent increases of NAV, they may start making capital gains a large part of distributions instead.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2023 18:47:56 GMT
For example, on 12/31/22 the NAV of PDI was 17.71. On 1/31/23 the NAV was 18.23. Add back the .22 Distribution in Jan and the increase in NAV was .82. I think Capecod (Dick) uses this metric to show that the black box in Pimco CEFs makes using UNII unreliable for evaluating the strength of the dividend. Please correct me if I am wrong. I'd like to hear opinions on this too.
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Post by johnsmith on Feb 18, 2023 19:50:35 GMT
it's a bond fund. leveraged.
when interest rates go down - NAV goes up. and vice-versa.
part of the NAV increase in Jan is from interest rates down and part from income.
I find it quite hard to believe that with interest rates higher than in the past 10 years, income within pdi would fall by 70%.
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Post by newtecher on Feb 18, 2023 22:37:39 GMT
it's a bond fund. leveraged. when interest rates go down - NAV goes up. and vice-versa. part of the NAV increase in Jan is from interest rates down and part from income. That is true for January but take a look at February. Interest rates have retreated, but the NAVs of most PIMCO CEFs are holding up.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2023 22:46:02 GMT
Which seems to imply that several contributory factors are at play. Perhaps even counteracting each other. I keep hearing from knowledgable CEF investors that it is all "secret sauce" and "black boxes". So apparently, the mantra with Pimco CEFs is to "keep the faith".
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Post by marpro on Feb 18, 2023 23:10:01 GMT
Look at the three line break chart of prices for the past three months. Up, up, and above. That is the trend. We will wait and see. This means that some people are buying. schrts.co/VTFjxuna
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2023 23:19:08 GMT
Look at the three line break chart of prices for the past three months. Up, up, and above. That is the trend. We will wait and see. This means that some people are buying. schrts.co/VTFjxunaWhy does that chart end on Feb 2?
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Post by marpro on Feb 18, 2023 23:39:08 GMT
Look at the three line break chart of prices for the past three months. Up, up, and above. That is the trend. We will wait and see. This means that some people are buying. schrts.co/VTFjxunaWhy does that chart end on Feb 2? Good question. I even tried the specific dates starting three months to yesterday's date, and I get the same. I tried another one for a different security, it was up to Feb. 10. I do not know why.
The "point and figure" chart also shows upward trend for now, with no main reversal trend yet.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2023 23:46:49 GMT
If you change it to PDO and hit update, it is out to 2/17/23.
I charted PDI on the CNBC website and it peaks around 2/3/23 and downtrend starting 2/7/23 FWIW.
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Post by marpro on Feb 19, 2023 0:03:25 GMT
If you change it to PDO and hit update, it is out to 2/17/23. I charted PDI on the CNBC website and it peaks around 2/3/23 and downtrends starting 2/7/23 FWIW. Yes, you are right. I have no idea. I plotted PDI and its 50-MA, the price of PDI is way above its 50-MA. However, PDO has been falling and is below its 50-MA. There is some technical aspect of major trend in these charts.
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Post by newtecher on Feb 19, 2023 1:29:08 GMT
Jan UNII numbers just came out. I don't have access to my spreadsheet, but here are the rolling 3month coverage ratios for the CEF I follow the closest: PDI 24% PDO 33% PCM 74% PTY 35% So, the Dec coverage for PTY was a fluke However, 35% is not good. PDI and PDO continue to take it on the chin and have fallen yet lower PCM is not doing very well either. Wild PGP has best coverage. Muni's are not doing well either despite recent cuts to their distributions, which is a huge risk right now with a number of the taxables. I have no meaningful CEF positions and no plans to initiate either. Best of luck to everybody holding! By the way, I just read Dick on Fidelity say that the UNII for most PIMCO CEFs did not change in the last release despite the NII earning being significantly below the distributions. For example, the ever-popular PDI (I do not own it) had UNII at zero both on Dec 31 and Jan 31. Clearly, there is more to UNII accounting than meets the eye.
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Post by marpro on Feb 19, 2023 2:03:39 GMT
Jan UNII numbers just came out. I don't have access to my spreadsheet, but here are the rolling 3month coverage ratios for the CEF I follow the closest: PDI 24% PDO 33% PCM 74% PTY 35% So, the Dec coverage for PTY was a fluke However, 35% is not good. PDI and PDO continue to take it on the chin and have fallen yet lower PCM is not doing very well either. Wild PGP has best coverage. Muni's are not doing well either despite recent cuts to their distributions, which is a huge risk right now with a number of the taxables. I have no meaningful CEF positions and no plans to initiate either. Best of luck to everybody holding! By the way, I just read Dick on Fidelity say that the UNII for most PIMCO CEFs did not change in the last release despite the NII earning being significantly below the distributions. For example, the ever-popular PDI (I do not own it) had UNII at zero both on Dec 31 and Jan 31. Clearly, there is more to UNII accounting than meets the eye. I wish the traders to sell more to get the prices down so that the premium comes down. The price level is way up above the 50-MA level. If the premium comes down, I may add more shares. The price level is not in my comfort level yet.
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Post by gman57 on Mar 16, 2023 1:56:35 GMT
New Pimco UNII report is out.
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Post by johnsmith on Mar 16, 2023 2:34:32 GMT
at the top right you'll see UNII report - click to download. Can use Libreoffice to open if you don't have excel.
PAXS has weird numbers. In february they earned waaaaay tons of money.
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rumi
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Post by rumi on Mar 16, 2023 8:07:58 GMT
at the top right you'll see UNII report - click to download. Can use Libreoffice to open if you don't have excel.
PAXS has weird numbers. In february they earned waaaaay tons of money.
PAXS is looking good. It has the highest 3 month coverage ratio of them all, above 100%. Also, it currently yield 12.7%, and is trading at a 7% discount to NAV. What's not to like? Anything I'm missing here? I already have a position in PAXS but might add more.
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2023 22:59:10 GMT
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Post by richardsok on May 17, 2023 1:25:24 GMT
Thanks Frank. I had actually forgotten to keep track of the monthly report. Though numbers seem marginally improved from previous time frames, all the ZERO UNIIs are not encouraging. PDI looks particularly ugly. I know -- some posters who have insights (real or imagined) into Pimco CEF operations may have explanations why things are possibly not so bleak as they might appear. Nevertheless, for me, it's a golden opportunity to own -- something else.
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Post by johnsmith on May 18, 2023 12:06:09 GMT
Posted by DickCod on Seeking Alpha seekingalpha.com/article/4604513-pdo-what-can-we-learn-from-pdi?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aauthor%7Cbutton%3Aview_comment#comment-95256893"Complex portfolios require complex analysis. Currently there are a lot of complicating factors contributing to low NII disclosures. That does not, however, mean there are insufficient cash flows to cover distributions. Consider... 1. Earnings --- if not NII --- are being generated. In April, PDI NAV increased 8c AFTER taking the 22c ex-date hit. NAV increased 30c in April before the distribution. 2. About 40+% of conventional portfolio assets have floating rates that reset with a 1-6 month lag. Increased interest income from recent Fed hikes has not arrived yet because of the reset lags --- but the fund board knows what is coming and can be counted on. 3. The "front leg" of interest rate swaps cannot be counted as NII until paid, but it exists, is computable, and although not reportable NII, it can provide boards with assurance that they WILL have the NII to maintain distributions. Of particular consequence, ALL PDI U$ swaps are now annual or semi-annual pay. There may be enormous non-disclosable NII locked up for a long time. 4. PDI has been holding a $1.1 billion notional 3mo SOFR short futures position. Recent Fed hikes have generated significant NON-NII margin cash flows and ultimately distributable cash gains. More future distribution coverage that can't be disclosed as NII. 5. AT 12/31, PDI held 15.7% cash investments --- much generated by large purposeful swaps that raised cash but seriously drain NII. The cash is not NII, but it is as good as NII for supporting distributions. The SOFR futures position is likely? part of a strategy including the counterintuitive swaps. Nobody knows the future, but there are clearly a lot of portfolio positions/strategies that are generating either NII or cash or cash gains that cannot be reported on the monthly PIMCO report. There MAY be far less than meets the eye in the apparent NII deficiency. Regards, Dick"
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Post by johnsmith on May 18, 2023 12:08:33 GMT
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Post by richardsok on May 18, 2023 20:36:36 GMT
Thank you, john.
Any updated information to the size of buys mentioned? As you know, small buys can generally be regarded as meaningless.
What cod again establishes is that he knows a lot more about these CEFs than I or the rest of the tribe do. But even he, with his sophisticated insight cannot go further than suggest "THIS may be happening or management MIGHT be favorably positioning themselves with a portfolio that MAY not readily be apparent in their monthly reports, yada yada."
Other than his general confidence in Pimco abilities, I don't see anything actionable in his post that you cite.
As I find myself essentially facing these black boxes with a lot of ugly numbers outside and whirring noises inside, I fall back on simply watching the big dawg's NAV (PDI) which pretty much looks like a coin flip just now.....some support right here IS possible, though.
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Post by johnsmith on May 18, 2023 21:18:39 GMT
It's important, like you realise, your own competence, your circle of knowledge and the risk one is willing to take and not.
The insider buys are all in the order of 3000 - 7000 shares.
PTY has no insider buys.
added: PDO April 2023 - Roman Emmanuel ~100K over 3 days. Jan 2023 - hall Gregory - 20K on 1 day
PDI Mar 2023 - David Fisher $7K shares on 1 day
PAXS Jan 2023 - Christian Stracke ~7000 shares 2 days Apr 2023 - Christian Stracke ~7000 shares 1 day
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Post by gman57 on May 18, 2023 22:14:57 GMT
Thank you, john. Any updated information to the size of buys mentioned? As you know, small buys can generally be regarded as meaningless. What cod again establishes is that he knows a lot more about these CEFs than I or the rest of the tribe do. But even he, with his sophisticated insight cannot go further than suggest "THIS may be happening or management MIGHT be favorably positioning themselves with a portfolio that MAY not readily be apparent in their monthly reports, yada yada." Other than his general confidence in Pimco abilities, I don't see anything actionable in his post that you cite. As I find myself essentially facing these black boxes with a lot of ugly numbers outside and whirring noises inside, I fall back on simply watching the big dawg's NAV (PDI) which pretty much looks like a coin flip just now.....some support right here IS possible, though. LOL -- might, may, could, possibly, go up or down, perhaps, can be, conceivably etc... the everyday language of investing experts.
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