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Post by Norbert on Nov 11, 2022 2:20:50 GMT
PQTIX was down 3.29% today.If you wanted to make money in Managed Futures I think you should of been in them 1-2 years ago. Their bet on rising rates backfired today. I continue to see PQTIX and AMFAX as hedges, not standalone Investments. Of course, hedges seem annoying on strong up days like Thursday. Is it up and away for stocks now? Or, are we getting to the top of a BMR? It's SQQQ that was truly painful yesterday: down a whopping 17%.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 11, 2022 21:22:39 GMT
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 12, 2022 2:27:30 GMT
uh...I was unfamiliar with this index. Is it based on sentiment surveys?? Source of data?? That is a quick reversal. Most posters on sites are still quite bearish! R48
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2022 4:40:06 GMT
uh...I was unfamiliar with this index. Is it based on sentiment surveys?? Source of data?? That is a quick reversal. Most posters on sites are still quite bearish! R48 Before you get too excited, let me show you why this indicator is far from accuracy. Below at a chart with the same indicator. Below this indicator, I also included the SP500. In 2021, the SP500 made 28+% and was in uptrend all year while this indicator was fluctuating. Sorry. Attachments:
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 12, 2022 13:22:30 GMT
uh...I was unfamiliar with this index. Is it based on sentiment surveys?? Source of data?? That is a quick reversal. Most posters on sites are still quite bearish! R48 The BPI indicator is useful for measuring the level of enthusiasm in the market or sector that it is applied to. The chart school at Stockcharts can give anyone a clear understanding of it. The following is an url to an article that was published at the chart school. Enjoy the enlightenment. school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=index_symbols:bpi_symbols
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Post by Chahta on Nov 12, 2022 14:10:58 GMT
BULL NEUT. BEAR 11-09-22 25.1% 27.9% 47.0%
Seems as though it doesn't match the AAII sentiment per YBB.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 12, 2022 14:29:25 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Nov 12, 2022 18:25:34 GMT
Just because I didn't understand it doesn't mean I didn't read it.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2022 18:49:33 GMT
BULL NEUT. BEAR 11-09-22 25.1% 27.9% 47.0% Seems as though it doesn't match the AAII sentiment per YBB. Another inaccurate indicator most times. Only at extem it's better.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 15, 2022 19:26:39 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2022 4:48:27 GMT
Observation: the Fed clock starts ticking with the last CPI+PPI. CME Fedwatch tool ( link) signals the following It's 80+% a raise of 0.5% in Dec. For 2023 the max Fed fund rate went down from 5-5.25 to 4.75-5% all the way thru mid 2023. Basically, after Dec +0.5%, we are going to have 1 or 2 0.25% increase. You have to figure out what does it mean to you. There is never a clear sky, and when it's clear it's too late.
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Post by archer on Nov 16, 2022 5:40:13 GMT
I expect a .5% raise rather than a .75 will help the market. It might not be enough to make a new high. The max rate being less than once expected will also lift the market. Any improvement in projections lift the market. A case could be made that rates are still increasing, and the market will continue to suffer, but, market makers tend to look on the bright side, chomping at the bit. "This time is different" etc. So we get volatility.
Tom Bowley is looking for $TNX to fail breaking through its 20DMA. Anything can change at any time, but It's looking like the 20 might not even be tested, and today it opened and closed below the 50.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 30, 2022 22:33:27 GMT
Observation: the Fed clock starts ticking with the last CPI+PPI. CME Fedwatch tool ( link) signals the following It's 80+% a raise of 0.5% in Dec. For 2023 the max Fed fund rate went down from 5-5.25 to 4.75-5% all the way thru mid 2023. Basically, after Dec +0.5%, we are going to have 1 or 2 0.25% increase. You have to figure out what does it mean to you. There is never a clear sky, and when it's clear it's too late. I'm amazed. Was anybody surprised by what the Fed chair said? It was already known for 2 weeks.
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Post by habsui on Nov 30, 2022 22:48:57 GMT
Observation: the Fed clock starts ticking with the last CPI+PPI. CME Fedwatch tool ( link) signals the following It's 80+% a raise of 0.5% in Dec. For 2023 the max Fed fund rate went down from 5-5.25 to 4.75-5% all the way thru mid 2023. Basically, after Dec +0.5%, we are going to have 1 or 2 0.25% increase. You have to figure out what does it mean to you. There is never a clear sky, and when it's clear it's too late. I'm amazed. Was anybody surprised by what the Fed chair said? It was already known for 2 weeks. Correct. And all of us geniuses on here made money in the last 2 weeks knowing what would happen..
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2022 1:09:30 GMT
I'm amazed. Was anybody surprised by what the Fed chair said? It was already known for 2 weeks. Correct. And all of us geniuses on here made money in the last 2 weeks knowing what would happen.. Yes. There is always that little doubt that keeps us all from putting it all on 16 red and spinning the wheel.
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Post by archer on Dec 1, 2022 1:27:33 GMT
Evidently the market was surprised, and not completely sure the past couple weeks. It doesn't really matter if the market movers are smart or not. It's the rest of us that need to be smart.
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 1, 2022 5:04:05 GMT
Evidently the market was surprised, and not completely sure the past couple weeks. It doesn't really matter if the market movers are smart or not. It's the rest of us that need to be smart. Exactly, it was explained very clearly on the bond thread( link). Does anybody think I woke up one morning after months of sitting patiently in MM and went in from under 1% to 99+% within days, based on a hunch? I did the usual, big picture + the charts confirmed it.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 1, 2022 12:54:27 GMT
Muni funds seem to have a mind of their own. They have rallied a few times this year in the face of rising rates. All bond funds in general are cheap now. You can’t time them like you can’t time stocks but they may be easier to get into since they move slower. As my treasuries mature I will buy some bonds.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 1, 2022 17:04:52 GMT
Evidently the market was surprised, and not completely sure the past couple weeks. It doesn't really matter if the market movers are smart or not. It's the rest of us that need to be smart. Exactly, it was explained very clearly on the bond thread( link). Does anybody think I woke up one morning after months of sitting patiently in MM and went in from under 1% to 99+% within days, based on a hunch? I did the usual, big picture + the charts confirmed it. FD... FD1000,...perhaps I missed your post. Did you start buying?? Mostly in?? Where is post? R48
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 1, 2022 21:13:32 GMT
Looking at my cloudy crystal ball... Bonds are the ones with easier path to success from here, all relative of course. The Fed blinked, LT rates which controlled by the market are down. If you own the right funds, you can make another 10% in the next 12-18 months. The Fed is out of the way for a while, until new data shows up.
On the other, stocks depend a lot more on the economy and earnings. Higher rates will take their toll on both. Stocks have more room to go, maybe to year-end, but the first 6 months in 2023, could be very tricky for stocks.
CEFs: I can see, for the first time in years, a place for leveraged FI CEFs instead of part of someone's stocks. Here I said it.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 1, 2022 22:00:55 GMT
Yea,mid November bought, for the first time ever, VGLT. And PDO, which I sold back when it was PCI, the only CEF bond fund I've ever owned and it was clear ZIRP was going to die. Stocks never got cheap enough this year for a big buy; still waiting.
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Post by ECE Prof on Dec 7, 2022 23:35:22 GMT
I stopped using VOO, IVV, SPY, etc. for a month now. But, I have SCHD and HDV, along with utilities (UTSL, UTG, XLU). Only SCHD dropped today - ex div day. Make small gains every day instead of investing in big losses every day, and you can build up. That is my new mantra.
I sold XLP today and XLE last week with a minor profit. Of course, PDI and ECC are going up again, which I do not need. ECC jumped more than 3% at the closing. I have no idea what the news is about ECC.
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 8, 2022 0:24:32 GMT
Looking at my cloudy crystal ball... Bonds are the ones with easier path to success from here, all relative of course. The Fed blinked, LT rates which controlled by the market are down. If you own the right funds, you can make another 10% in the next 12-18 months. The Fed is out of the way for a while, until new data shows up. On the other, stocks depend a lot more on the economy and earnings. Higher rates will take their toll on both. Stocks have more room to go, maybe to year-end, but the first 6 months in 2023, could be very tricky for stocks. CEFs: I can see, for the first time in years, a place for leveraged FI CEFs instead of part of someone's stocks. Here I said it. My crystal ball was right. My Bonds are up and... The SP500: T/A=ST+LT indicators turned to a sell signal. The price reached and was a bit above the 200 days moving average for several days but fell already about 3.5%. The SP500 had 5 consecutive down days
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Post by ECE Prof on Dec 8, 2022 0:40:33 GMT
FD1000 , "CEFs: I can see, for the first time in years, a place for leveraged FI CEFs instead of part of someone's stocks. Here I said it." The average price of PDI in my portfolio has dropped from $25+/sh to now $23.08/sh due to new and distributed cash bought at or below $19/sh. That keeps my real yield well above 12% and with the special, the yield will be about 15%. It is well suited as an annuity. In fact, I regret now that I did not learn about this back in 2004, when I decided to move a big sum to the state from TIAA. Even my son, who is the growth guy, keeps liking our annual income because we do not need to depend on him for nursing home expenses. In fact, he can learn from my investment style as he is aging now. Remember, when I was of his age, being the first generation, I had to struggle moving cash around to pay for two college kids (My older son died of cancer after he finished college – Columbia U., NY). Of course, I had to spend money from my SRA. I had to pay higher taxes too. I do not regret at all at spending their college money. That is the best investment in our lives. I hope that my son learns from my experience. I hope that, you now realize why I like lower prices for PDI and ECC. I bought some ECC at $10.76, and it jumped to $11.18 today. Am I happy about it? No.
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Post by mozart522 on Dec 8, 2022 13:35:45 GMT
Charlie Munger said the 3 worst investments are leverage, liquor, and ladies. Buffett then said he only added the last two because they started with L
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Post by Chahta on Dec 8, 2022 13:42:21 GMT
Know who they are but I really don’t know much about those 2. I’m willing to bet they are TR growth oriented.
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Post by ECE Prof on Dec 8, 2022 15:04:43 GMT
Charlie Munger said the 3 worst investments are leverage, liquor, and ladies. Buffett then said he only added the last two because they started with L Yes, my son loves them as his Gods. He has collected several books on his Gods.
But, I love to use OPM. Your own mortgage is a leverage. If the leverage is well within some limits and makes more money, why not? My leveraged his mortgages with a lot of leverage, while I paid off my mortgage in 6 years even before I sent him to college. Now, he has to sell one big one because it sucks the money while being empty. He asked for a lot of explanations about our investment income. So, he seems to like my style. I already told him that I am not going back to his style of buying SSO and TQQQ.
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 18, 2022 2:20:41 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 22, 2022 23:12:12 GMT
1) Hedge fund titan David Tepper 'leaning short' on stocks as central banks keep raising rates( link). 2) Hedge fund manager Bill Harnisch has one pf the best record in the last several years. ( link) "Stocks will go nowhere in 2023, predicts Peconic’s Bill Harnisch: ‘We’re very comfortable pulling back now" I do my own thing = big picture first then charts and other indicators. I also follow closer the "smart money" = the bond market. I bought early in Nov and sold last week because the charts told me that + markets are volatile and unpredictable. It's a guerilla war for me = hit the target and run away. The SP500 chart below shows lower lows and lower highs. The sell signal for the SP500 was early in Dec. The sell signal for most bonds was last Monday the 19th, if you knew where/how to look, it was already last week. Lastly, waiting for the next trade in MM at 4+% ain't bad either 🤪 Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on Dec 23, 2022 15:06:36 GMT
FD1000, you should count your blessings. You can do what most of us can’t.
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