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Post by Norbert on Nov 6, 2022 21:16:00 GMT
I think that Sara has superior returns over the long term. Unfortunately, I don't have her conviction or tolerance for "losses". While I was holding a corporate job, I was 100% stocks, but not now. Focusing on "risk adjusted returns" is a sign of weakness. Sara has confidence in her strategy and I think she'll wind up doing well. Her 10% "loss" this year is peanuts. She's not an indexer, which would be a different story. I really haven't. I very much approach the returns of the S&P and have considered simplifying as a result. I do get better income thrown off. But as far as total return? Nope. I do like knowing what I own, but that has its drawbacks too. Absolutely - being in the accumulation phase is a different animal. But - again - if we are making superior returns on a long term basis. That's a big deal. I have read that over the long term, the best risk adjusted returns come from holding equities. Is that true or not? If someone wants to trade, preserve capital at this time, buy and hold, have more income, I think we have to accept the pros and cons. I look at richardsok - he's investing in South America. Big risk, big return/loss. Uncle Harley - he's taking big risk, big return/loss. This makes sense. If you sell out of the market, you might miss huge recovery days, you might not get back in. Risk, reward relationship holds. Buy and hold - you might panic and sell, you might draw down and face a sequence of return risk. Within all those you have asset selection issues. You bob between value and growth - you might have put your eggs in one basket. Same with domestic with no international. Diversification is a pillar of investing for a reason. Some folks might get it all right. Edit - it is only this year in the last 12 I have been this far "ahead" of the S&P. Frankly I don't know what to make of that at this point. My outsize position in AAPL could help even that up unfortunatley! This confirms my theory: you had superior returns. I'm guessing that few investors can (essentially) achieve the returns of the S&P 500. Most either won't stay the course; or they hold bonds to contain portfolio volatility. And I do accept your claims as truthful. But, I'm shocked that you won't accept FD's claims as the gospel truth. Shocked! Perhaps not the truth as we know it, but some measure of truth, with certain omissions and exaggerations. Well, at least not entirely false.
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Post by bizman on Nov 6, 2022 21:32:54 GMT
I really haven't. I very much approach the returns of the S&P and have considered simplifying as a result. I do get better income thrown off. But as far as total return? Nope. I do like knowing what I own, but that has its drawbacks too. Absolutely - being in the accumulation phase is a different animal. But - again - if we are making superior returns on a long term basis. That's a big deal. I have read that over the long term, the best risk adjusted returns come from holding equities. Is that true or not? If someone wants to trade, preserve capital at this time, buy and hold, have more income, I think we have to accept the pros and cons. I look at richardsok - he's investing in South America. Big risk, big return/loss. Uncle Harley - he's taking big risk, big return/loss. This makes sense. If you sell out of the market, you might miss huge recovery days, you might not get back in. Risk, reward relationship holds. Buy and hold - you might panic and sell, you might draw down and face a sequence of return risk. Within all those you have asset selection issues. You bob between value and growth - you might have put your eggs in one basket. Same with domestic with no international. Diversification is a pillar of investing for a reason. Some folks might get it all right. Edit - it is only this year in the last 12 I have been this far "ahead" of the S&P. Frankly I don't know what to make of that at this point. My outsize position in AAPL could help even that up unfortunatley! This confirms my theory: you had superior returns. I'm guessing that few investors can (essentially) achieve the returns of the S&P 500. Most either won't stay the course; or they hold bonds to contain portfolio volatility. And I do accept your claims as truthful. But, I'm shocked that you won't accept FD's claims as the gospel truth. Shocked! Perhaps not the truth as we know it, but some measure of truth, with certain omissions and exaggerations. Well, at least not entirely false. I'm willing to give most everyone here the benefit of the doubt as to their claims of success. (Although there may be one individual who keeps claiming near perfection about whom I have my doubts. Someone who repeatedly keeps telling you how smart they are just may not be, and may be revealing a deep-seated psychological problem. I tend to regard such behavior as Dustin Hoffman's character in Rain Man repeatedly saying "I'm a very good driver." Not terribly convincing.) I have a higher standard of proof before I will consider taking something on board for my own process. That seems the only sensible way to proceed to me. But in reality the only standard of success that matters is if we are meeting our goals comfortably, with the ability to sleep at night. It seems many of us have found a variety of ways to do so that work for each of us differently. I celebrate all of those as successes. Anyway, the big thing is to invert the investing problem and not do the really stupid thing. As Morgan Housel says, "Most people can afford to not be a great investor. But they can’t afford to be a bad investor." Good enough is good enough. Best wishes to all.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 6, 2022 22:36:17 GMT
Sara, so here it goes. My system have rules but these rules can't be replicated without human intervention and why you can't computerize them. It's a decision system based on market condition, momentum + lower risk fund OEF/ETF, big picture. Can you replicate it? Maybe the following is enough for you. Years ago, I get a private msg, this person says he knows my system, great, we discuss stuff, so I can see if it's true. Looks good. I don't tell people what to buy, I teach. Months go by, every time I buy a fund (remember, there are about 10K funds), this person buys the same. Sometimes, he buys 1-2 days before me, sometimes he buys a fund I missed. Now, I'm convinced this person understands my system. We are in contact for years now, it's fun to have someone who practice similar ideas. In 2022, this person sold a week before I did, I lost 0.6% in that week. I was late. Later, I made trades he didn't. The system has principals, 2 people can practice it, the trades will be similar, the fund selection and dates would be different. It's not a science, it has an art portion. Hence, I can't give you exact rules. Similar thing happened to me, I contacted another person, we discuss things, over months I proved we have things in common, now we discuss it more freely. A good trader doesn't want to reveal their system but is more comfortable when the other person can prove it. Years ago, I posted my trades very close to execution, people complained they want every trade, and what %. SHOW US THE PROOF. If I made a bad trade, they chased me for months, forget about the other good trades I made. If was too much hassle, so I stopped posting my trades. When I post my 5 years performance + SD, people say I brag, arrogant. I don't even care about the SP500 anymore because as a retiree who has enough my goals are different, if I beat 40-50% stocks it would be great, but I did anyway. Beating the SP500 in good years is very difficult (think 1995-2000...2010-2021). Beating the SP500 when it's over value and volatility is higher, is easier. This is when trading shine. It lowers someone portfolio volatility by a lot which is very important to most retirees.Bottom line, no matter what I post, I lose, and I spend a lot of time defending it, so, why bother. Why I started this thread? I just posted several thoughts, I told you what I did, and I ended it with "What should you do? I don't have a clue, you have your own goals. MOST SHOULD DO HARDLY ANYTHING, AND STAY WITHING THEIR AA, BASED ON THEIR GOALS." So, do you want the proof? The only one I have is my portfolio performance + SD. I have over 95% in Schwab and they supply the numbers. There is no way to achieve these numbers without good trades. As of last Friday 11/4, see below. Attachment one = performance. Attachment 2 = SD. Attachment 3 AS of 10/31/2022 = Port Vis(link) for 5 year performance + SD + other for SPY and VWIAX=one of the best LT conservative funds. You can see that VWIAX SD is 3 times higher and SPY is about 7 times higher. BTW, SPY will easily outperform my portfolio 5 year performance after making 10+%. We can resume our thread purpose now.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2022 1:40:44 GMT
FD1000 , I do not care what your performance is or what your system is. And have never said such. Good for you. Publish a book. Once again and for the last time - let's go back to whether being able to miss the worse days are possible yet somehow hitting the best and the returns for doing so over the last 30 years. Perfect execution of missing 50 worst and 50 best, without considering taxes and fees, gets you an extra 1% annually. This has been used by you as justification to sell in and out of the market. After looking into this, I say it is not a justification to refute being in the market so as not to miss the best days. Who here thinks they can manage to miss the worse 30, 40, 50 days in the last 30 years and still hit, not even all, but most of the best - when they are somewhat tightly clustered? Then, where is the great investor that uses a momentum, moving average strategy? The fact that such investors have not been in CEFs has been repeatedly held up as a reason they must not be sensible. I posted the comparative 30 year returns of a 200 DMA strategy vs buy and hold. It lagged substantially. If this is an invalid comparison, I am all ears. Is it true that over the long run - 30 years because that is the holding period for the average retiree - never mind the time for accumulation - isn't holding the market going to give an investor the best adjusted return. Finally - I don't blame you for not wanting to post trades. That is your business, but it is our business to question results claimed to be superior when they are repeatedly put forth. I can't imagine why this would not be expected. After 5 or 6 posts, this has all been brought back to you and your system for some reason I don't comprehend. I am not asking about your returns or your system. Again see my comments regarding best and worst days, top investors who use moving average strategies, explanation of moving average vs buy and hold results over the long term. This is in line with what has been in this thread. All of this goes to the statement that market observations are great, but if someone starts implying they are and will be able to time the market and consistently attain superior results, and that those folks who can't should stick to the simple stuff, I want to get into the weeds and start seeing if this really holds water for the long term.
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Post by habsui on Nov 7, 2022 1:56:29 GMT
This discussion looks vaguely familiar..
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2022 2:04:03 GMT
This discussion looks vaguely familiar.. I know - sorry - but I really am interested in this concept of best/worse days and who can achieve this and also now about returns for moving average strategies vs buy and hold.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 7, 2022 4:39:02 GMT
Sara, You don't care about real data? wow, it's the absolute proof, it actually worked in real life. The results show I missed the worst days, because in the last 3 times the SP500 lost at least 20%, my biggest loss was only once -0.9%, in the other 2, I actually made money, while the SP500 kept going down. But it gets better, my portfolio 5 years SD is at an unbelievable 2.37. Can you show me any other system with such a low SD and high performance, and I did it with 10/90(stocks/bonds)? Go ahead and search all the available funds, or even try to find a combo of funds that did it.Missing the worse days increases the performance by a lot more than 1%. I posted it because so many experts always mentioning why missing the best days is so important, but they never mention the worst days.I don't care about MA or missing the worst/good days. Staying in MM in bear markets is easier for me, and produces a much better risk-adjusted performance.Who cares if there were up days during the meltdowns. The fact is, the SP500 has been down 3 times since 2018 20%, 34%, and 24% and I was out. I nailed it each time, and that's the main point. Is it a guarantee? Of course not. I rather have 3 out of 3 than none. If I catch only 2 out of the next 3, it's still better than none. Show me anybody who doesn't want to be in MM when most/many stocks and bonds categories are down. Fees? Hardly any, I explained why. Taxes? Hardly any because most of my money is in IRAs. I don't care paying taxes in a joint account, it means I made money. If you want to discuss this subject, please open a new thread. BTW, in this new thread, please support your investing style in single stocks while beating the SP500 for 30 years.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 7, 2022 5:19:59 GMT
This discussion looks vaguely familiar.. I know - sorry - but I really am interested in this concept of best/worse days and who can achieve this and also now about returns for moving average strategies vs buy and hold. There's some basic timing strategic simulation tools available at Portfolio Visualiser. Here's a run from 1985 using VFINX (S&P 500) and a 10-month MA. B&H is generally ahead, but the timing strategy displays lower volatility. Red = B&H. Blue = MA rule No mechanical system I ever backtested could beat B&H consistently. www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model#analysisResults
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Post by archer on Nov 7, 2022 6:08:21 GMT
Earlier someone mentioned 20/40 and 10/40 crossovers. 20/40 didn't do well so far this year, but 10/20 did better. optimum crossovers are a moving target. Which one works depends on how the market behaves.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 7, 2022 8:29:11 GMT
Earlier someone mentioned 20/40 and 10/40 crossovers. 20/40 didn't do well so far this year, but 10/20 did better. optimum crossovers are a moving target. Which one works depends on how the market behaves. ... which will be evident with the benefit of hindsight. Even a jackass such as myself knows how do curve fitting. I'm certain that using optimal crossovers plus owning a time machine will make me a wealthy man. As for whether great wealth will actually make me a happy jackass, the answer is very definitely "Yes".
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Post by Mustang on Nov 7, 2022 11:23:41 GMT
Interesting article. I liked his conclusion about dollar-cost averaging.
"Undeniably, deploying bear market strategies, including eliminating margin, shorting, using stop losses, and reducing beta, can reduce drawdown, helping you recapture past peak values more quickly. However, selling entirely in hopes of buying back at the right time? That’s not an easy feat.' "For this reason, I’ve recommended that long-term investors take advantage of bear market weakness by increasing how much they contribute to workplace retirement accounts every pay period. Historically, every bear market has eventually laid the foundation for a move in the index to new highs. If the past is a prelude, then lowering your average cost in a market index fund or ETF by dollar-cost averaging during this bear market could put you in the best position when bulls are back in charge."
Of course, we all like it when something affirms what we are doing.
Edit: Every investor has their own goals and goals change over time. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) discusses risk vs. returns. Increasing risk does increase returns. A 100% stock portfolio has the highest returns... and the highest risk. The minimum risk portfolio is around 33/67 stocks to bonds. Charting risk vs. return shows that as the percent of stock is increased, risk increases faster than returns.
Every investor needs to determine his or her own level of risk. That normally decreases as we near retirement. Having the best returns should not be an investor's goal. Better is the enemy of good enough. Seeking returns greater than an investor's risk tolerance is what causes panic selling and losses.
If someone can time the market and make better returns then good for them. I have no desire to do that. Using complicated techniques that are more art than science is in direct conflict with my goal of simplification.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 7, 2022 11:48:12 GMT
Earlier someone mentioned 20/40 and 10/40 crossovers. 20/40 didn't do well so far this year, but 10/20 did better. optimum crossovers are a moving target. Which one works depends on how the market behaves. That makes a rather strong argument for using some of the momentum oscillators such as MACD or PMO or ADX or your choice. I try to not rely on one indicator to make a decision. I do much better when I check other indicators for confirmation.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2022 11:58:33 GMT
Sara, You don't care about real data? wow, it's the absolute proof, it actually worked in real life. The results show I missed the worst days, because in the last 3 times the SP500 lost at least 20%, my biggest loss was only once -0.9%, in the other 2, I actually made money, while the SP500 kept going down. But it gets better, my portfolio 5 years SD is at an unbelievable 2.37. Can you show me any other system with such a low SD and high performance, and I did it with 10/90(stocks/bonds)? Go ahead and search all the available funds, or even try to find a combo of funds that did it.Missing the worse days increases the performance by a lot more than 1%. I posted it because so many experts always mentioning why missing the best days is so important, but they never mention the worst days.I don't care about MA or missing the worst/good days. Staying in MM in bear markets is easier for me, and produces a much better risk-adjusted performance.Who cares if there were up days during the meltdowns. The fact is, the SP500 has been down 3 times since 2018 20%, 34%, and 24% and I was out. I nailed it each time, and that's the main point. Is it a guarantee? Of course not. I rather have 3 out of 3 than none. If I catch only 2 out of the next 3, it's still better than none. Show me anybody who doesn't want to be in MM when most/many stocks and bonds categories are down. Fees? Hardly any, I explained why. Taxes? Hardly any because most of my money is in IRAs. I don't care paying taxes in a joint account, it means I made money. If you want to discuss this subject, please open a new thread. BTW, in this new thread, please support your investing style in single stocks while beating the SP500 for 30 years.
Norbert , Look at the returns graph in the last link I posted. Buy and hold returns far exceed the 200 moving average strategy over 30 years. Whether it (the research behind this graph) is supported I don't really know. The point is made how much of total return comes from dividends. One of the graphed lines is for market returns without reinvestment. (Couldn't figure out how to insert the graph - sorry!) Buy and hold is hard to do. FD1000, We are on an anonymous forum. So much so, most people don't use their first names after years, and for some over a decade, on these forums. Why? Because they know odd things happen on the internet. With all due respect, a blacked out, non logo bearing piece of paper is just that. Sorry. I didn't ask for that or anything else. What has been asked for on this forum is for you to post real time trades to back up when you claim them. You have opted not to do that. Fine. Those can't be verified either frankly for anyone. As stated, that is your personal business and none of mine. You seem to be asking me to stop asking questions about uncanny ability (this is not referring to you by the way, but people who claim they can miss the worse days, but somehow hit the best) to avoid risk as well as who in the world uses moving averages professionally and is well known - i.e. a top investor such as Buffet or Lynch. No one has answered, because there appear to be none. To me, there is a reason for that. It is too risky for long term investing. I firmly believe that challenging models, studies, and assertions is a good thing, particularly where large amounts of capital are involved. Taxes are a huge factor in investing strategies for many - hence the TLH that is going on. They cannot be ignored when talking about investing in general. My returns? No one really knows, do they? Do they care? I can't imagine as they really aren't a topic I write about except in the YTD where we are comparing how this bear market is treating us and our different allocations/strategies. I've used that thread as support through this year not to panic and throw in the towel. The returns for holding the market over 30, 40, 50 years and rolling years are well published. So folks - I am not sure what I am allowed to ask or write about on this thread, but I do respect an OP's request, so happy investing!
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Post by fishingrod on Nov 7, 2022 12:18:19 GMT
The one thing I see that makes comparison difficult with the buy and hold and selling out and buying back in is,
The research applies to stocks and not to bonds or bond funds which is very different.
The bond funds that FD held have done comparably well to stocks. "I did it with 10/90(stocks/bonds" says FD
I wonder what research has been done on the same concepts but with bond funds.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2022 12:43:12 GMT
There is also the stealth physical and mental stress factor. Can't deny its existence even if you enjoy the process of doing whatever you are doing with your investments.
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Post by Chahta on Nov 7, 2022 13:21:53 GMT
The one thing I see that makes comparison difficult with the buy and hold and selling out and buying back in is, The research applies to stocks and not to bonds or bond funds which is very different. The bond funds that FD held have done comparably well to stocks. "I did it with 10/90(stocks/bonds" says FD I wonder what research has been done on the same concepts but with bond funds. I don't think the researchers care about bond funds. They are there to mainly supply income, not build wealth. Bond funds have only made news because of inflation and rate increases.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 7, 2022 14:33:27 GMT
@slooow
"What has been asked for on this forum is for you to post real time trades to back up when you claim them. You have opted not to do that."
All he'll post are selected, successful trades, after the fact. But for some reason, he thinks he walks on water. I think he's certifiable.
If FD told me that the sun rises in the East, I still wouldn't believe him.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 7, 2022 14:46:38 GMT
"I wonder what research has been done on the same concepts but with bond funds" "I don't think the researchers care about bond funds. They are there to mainly supply income, not build wealth." All the articles/papers I read discuss treasuries or total bond index. They are looking for something easy to follow and research. I don't own simple vanilla bond funds. These funds can make a lot more than the index but also lose a lot more. This is where you need to join, mostly on the uptrend. Research do care about bond but the main purpose of bonds is to mitigate risk/SD, income is important but not as much because TR is the most important. See ( link). * Bonds help preserve principal with lower risk and volatility, on average, than stocks. * Bonds produce income for investors who may need to rely on their investments to generate cash flows to live off of. The word MAY is the key ============= "The bond funds that FD held have done comparably well to stocks." They didn't. I was out in all 3 bear market. That helps my bond fund to look better. If you used stocks instead of my bonds, you would make a lot more. Example: if you sold SPY at the end of 02/2020 and bought it back at the end of 03/2020, you would made much more than me and more than just holding SPY. Look at the chart below. Spy collapse 20% in about 2 week, but bonds(BND,DODIX) gave you a chance to get out without losing(actually going up)...mmm...you just found out another nugget ================ "If someone can time the market and make better returns then good for them. I have no desire to do that. Using complicated techniques that are more art than science is in direct conflict with my goal of simplification." The above is correct, the easiest way is just holding limited number of funds and hardly trade. The problem is that most trades, especially on these boards. My trading system isn't more complicated than others. Rising a bike is more complicated than just walking, but after you master it, it's repetitive and easier. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 7, 2022 16:35:46 GMT
@slooow "What has been asked for on this forum is for you to post real time trades to back up when you claim them. You have opted not to do that." All he'll post are selected, successful trades, after the fact. But for some reason, he thinks he walks on water. I think he's certifiable. If FD told me that the sun rises in the East, I still wouldn't believe him. Yes, I have requested FD real-time posting of trades...to no avail. When we ran the "R48, Norbert & Chinwhisker Investing Contest" on M*, the rule was listing trades when made...and portfolios continuously shared for viewing. We then saw results of different investing styles...with believability. R48
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Post by Norbert on Nov 7, 2022 17:15:49 GMT
@slooow "What has been asked for on this forum is for you to post real time trades to back up when you claim them. You have opted not to do that." All he'll post are selected, successful trades, after the fact. But for some reason, he thinks he walks on water. I think he's certifiable. If FD told me that the sun rises in the East, I still wouldn't believe him. Yes, I have requested FD real-time posting of trades...to no avail. When we ran the "R48, Norbert & Chinwhisker Investing Contest" on M*, the rule was listing trades when made...and portfolios continuously shared for viewing. We then saw results of different investing styles...with believability. R48 That was an enjoyable and educational contest. We had full transparency to each others' trades during the worst crash I remember. (Of course, we used hypothetical trades; we weren't necessarily posting real trades.) I recall that you won because you correctly called the real bottom in early 2009, patiently waiting for real upside momentum; I was impatient and got faked out by a Summer/Fall 2008 Bear Market Rally. I know that you won fair & square because you posted everything in real time (same day). FD later participated in an Investing Challenge I was managing at M*. He posted a few trades in real time, but dropped out the moment his portfolio growth went negative. 🙄
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Post by Mustang on Nov 7, 2022 19:23:19 GMT
Rising a bike is more complicated than just walking, but after you master it, it's repetitive and easier. I like this. It made me smile. To continue the analogy I prefer bikes with motors. The motor powering my investments (conducting trades) is the fund manager.
P.S. I still ride my Harley just about every weekend during the summer.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 7, 2022 20:09:43 GMT
R48, I was not a member on M* when you started this contest and why I couldn't participate. Norbert, I participated one year all the way to the end and did well. I quit the second year very early. I can't remember if it was negative unless you can prove it. I'm putting you on ignore until I decide to reverse it
Both, please refresh your memory.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2022 20:36:56 GMT
R48, I was not a member on M* when you started this contest and why I couldn't participate. Norbert, I participated one year all the way to the end and did well. I quit the second year very early. I can't remember if it was negative unless you can prove it. I'm putting you on ignore until I decide to reverse it Both, please refresh your memory. I don't remember FD playing the first year. I participated with PIMCO CEFs and came in 3rd place. I believe the 2nd and 3rd place performance were pretty close together. I did not play the following year when FD, I believe was using only one fund, Wellesley. That may have been when he quit. Added by Edit: Norbert managed the contest for "Boris" or something to that effect.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 7, 2022 21:44:43 GMT
R48, I was not a member on M* when you started this contest and why I couldn't participate. Norbert, I participated one year all the way to the end and did well. I quit the second year very early. I can't remember if it was negative unless you can prove it. I'm putting you on ignore until I decide to reverse it Both, please refresh your memory. I don't remember FD playing the first year. I participated with PIMCO CEFs and came in 3rd place. I believe the 2nd and 3rd place performance were pretty close together. I did not play the following year when FD, I believe was using only one fund, Wellesley. That may have been when he quit. Added by Edit: Norbert managed the contest for "Boris" or something to that effect. I participated in the first year. Anyway, old news.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 9, 2022 21:50:14 GMT
Still KISS, SP500 had lowers low and lower high, the trend is still down. Bonds:PIMIX(multi)...DODIX(higher-rated bond)...VGIT(treasuries)....PHMIX(HY Muni). The trend is still lower. Even VGSH, ST treasuries are still going down. Losing less doesn't make me happy.
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Post by mnfish on Nov 10, 2022 12:22:22 GMT
FD1000, I noticed that your Fidelity account image states a "since inception" date of 6/2/09 which would mean that that's when you opened the account. It lists the SP500 performance under that date as being 13.07% which would be CAGR. Can you divulge what your CAGR has been since 2009? You also posted - "Why did I miss the easy 2008? because I didn't believe in trading, I didn't have a system, nor I practice it? But 2008, my only losing year, was an eye-opener. I realized that owning better categories didn't protect me enough. I lost 25% (about 90/10) instead of 37-45%(US-global stocks). 25% was a good performance but it's still a huge loss. I had a nice size portfolio, it really hurt, it took me years of work, sweat, frugality and consistency to get there." I'm guessing you had a 25% realized loss?
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 10, 2022 12:42:12 GMT
Schwab performance is only for the money at Schwab. I have most of my money there at least 5 years (maybe over 6) years. Before that I kept moving my money back and forth between Fidelity and Schwab to get a nice cash reward every a few years and why the numbers are not accurate beyond that.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 11, 2022 1:00:32 GMT
Several ideas from several experts I respect, mainly Scott Minerd. Summary: Inflation is going down. The Fed still will raise o.5%. Nov-Dec are known to be as a great time to invest. The time to invest in stocks is now. If you look at a specific sector, look at home builders. Buy bonds now, HY + longer duration corp, mentioned LQD, and not treasuries.
BTW, PQTIX is doing great, only -0.1% today, others didn't do as well. Maybe managed future funds are the answer to these markets in the next year, or more.
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Post by kinkelly on Nov 11, 2022 1:26:06 GMT
PQTIX was down 3.29% today.If you wanted to make money in Managed Futures I think you should of been in them 1-2 years ago.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 11, 2022 2:18:27 GMT
PQTIX was down 3.29% today.If you wanted to make money in Managed Futures I think you should of been in them 1-2 years ago. My mistake, let's not discuss managed funds, it should be in another thread.
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