What categories funds are working

[FD1000]

I just ran my fund screener, searching for funds that have done well lately + LT.
I looked for the following Wider range stock categories (US+inter stocks(not sector), allocation, Commodities) + SD<25 to find better risk/reward funds.

Conclusions:
1) Commodities came as the best category, YTD.
- No need to do lots of research when VG has a good cheap ER fund. I mentioned VCMDX about 3 weeks ago (link).
- Another good risk/reward fund is DBCMX. 

2)  Foreign:
- T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund (TRAMX) with great YTD-1-3-5 year performance.
- The Hartford International Value Fund Class Y (HILYX) with great YTD-1-3-5 year performance.
- JPMorgan Large Cap Value Fund Class I (HLQVX) with great YTD.  1-3-5 year performance better than the above.
- Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund Investor Shares (VGPMX) with great YTD-1-3-5 year performance. Easy buy with the lowest ER=0.35.

3) LC Value: See my post from 1/9/2020 (link)
- Centre American Select Equity Fund Institutional Class (DHANX). Beat the SP500 for 1-3-5 year + better SD/Sharpe/Sortino (link)

Below, performance from one week to 10 years.

Attachments:

[fritzo489]

FD1000, Will you be investing in any of the above mentioned funds ? I've been looking at commodities , but thinking I'm late !
Have a good Superbowl weekend, fritzo489

[FD1000]

I don't disclose my holdings anymore BUT as a flexible investor I may do anything, especially when bonds OEFs don't do well YTD...and, I'm never too diversified with max 5 funds. I would have no problem owning 3 funds (one comm, one foreign, one value).

[Norbert]

@newzg posted this in FD's Armchair version of this thread:

Great info, thanks.
Now, what to do with it? Move the whole equities sleeve into the 3 areas mentioned, or overallocate these areas?

I replied:

I guess the answer depends on our:

• conviction regarding momentum-based investing
• focus on short- vs. long-term returns
• willingness to pay close attention to the market and trade accordingly
• courage to concentrate vs. diversify our money
• view on the alignment between technical and strategic considerations.

On the commodities front, best to invest directly in commodities (e.g. DBCMX; or Vanguard Commodity Strategy - VCMDX); or, invest in companies that can profit from rising commodity prices (e.g. Fidelity Global Commodity Stock - FFGCX)?

I do like TRAMX, which is heavy in Middle Eastern banks. It's an indirect play on oil & gas. With US oil majors being constrained by "green" government ideology, it might be smart to invest here. Plus, rising rates could help the banks.

Some of us will maintain our exposure to dividend-paying plays like SCHD, which are also a value play. SCHD is showing moderate weakness, though nothing like that of LCG.

Others will see Growth stock weakness (and general stock index weakness) as a buying opportunity. (Me, I think there's more turmoil to come.)

Another approach is to take positions in diversified fund inflation plays:

Inflation Beneficiaries - INFL
Fidelity Stocks for Inflation - FCPI
Pimco Inflation Response Multi-asset - PIRMX (not my choice).

Some posters praise indexing and have argued that the S&P 500 is an excellent approach. Maybe it is while the market is in rally mode, but I note its poor performance from 2000-2010. I think it might not be a very rewarding approach for now.

Funds list, sorted by 1 year returns (click to enlarge):

[anovice]

Feb 13, 2022 9:29:09 GMT Norbert said:

@newzg posted this in FD's Armchair version of this thread:

Great info, thanks.
Now, what to do with it? Move the whole equities sleeve into the 3 areas mentioned, or overallocate these areas?

I replied:

I guess the answer depends on our:

conviction regarding momentum-based investing
focus on short- vs. long-term returns
willingness to pay close attention to the market and trade accordingly
courage to concentrate vs. diversify our money
view on the alignment between technical and strategic considerations.


On the commodities front, best to invest directly in commodities (e.g. DBCMX); or, invest in companies that can profit from rising commodity prices (e.g. Fidelity Global Commodity Stock - FFGCX; or Vanguard Commodity Strategy - VCMDX)?

I do like TRAMX, which is heavy in Middle Eastern banks. It's an indirect play on oil & gas. With US oil majors being constrained by "green" government ideology, it might be smart to invest here. Plus, rising rates could help the banks.

Some of us will maintain our exposure to dividend-paying plays like SCHD, which are also a value play. SCHD is showing moderate weakness, though nothing like that of LCG.

Others will see Growth stock weakness (and general stock index weakness) as a buying opportunity. (Me, I think there's more turmoil to come.)

Another approach is to take positions in diversified fund inflation plays:

Inflation Beneficiaries - INFL
Fidelity Stocks for Inflation - FCPI
Pimco Inflation Response Multi-asset - PIRMX (not my choice).

Some posters praise indexing and have argued that the S&P 500 is an excellent approach. Maybe it is while the market is in rally mode, but I note its poor performance from 2000-2010. I think it might not be a very rewarding approach for now.

Funds list, sorted by 1 year returns (click to enlarge):

<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

I like David Samra and the team on ARTKX, and they seem to be positioned fairly well in these most uncertain times. Too bad the fund has a soft close.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys, Here is a reference link where you can find short and long term total returns for category returns. www.morningstarfunds.ie/ie/tools/categoryoverview.aspx

[Deleted]

I wonder if posts like this should be in portfolio design and management. I might be a bit off topic otherwise. Sorry.

Congrats to those of you who allocated to a broad based commodities index early on. I did not. But -

I have held some energy companies for years - CVX, OXY,SHEL, ENB, MMP, and EPD. And one gold miner - KL which is now AEG.

They have all done well. So, I read the news of course and keep up - and now want more commodities - I am at 9% energy 3% materials in my portfolio. What weighting do other buy and holders have?

Did some quick research - FFGCX was my pick for a broad based commodity diversifier. Problem - it's run up of course. And I already have a lot of energy. I fall back on selecting individual companies. I found Coterra which looked undervalued and has premium assets - particularly out to the end of the decade. I bough a full position. (Part of my 9%).

Old Skeet made the good observation (thank you OS) that I don't have exposure to agriculture. More research. I used Lyn Alden's GUNR as a place to look. I have 4 candidates to add - 3 are fairly valued per Morningstar. All the balance sheets look good and the prospects, even without something to bid up inflation, are good looking out. They are companies that could end up being in my portfolio as a diversifier for years to come. They are:

Nutrien (NTR)
Corteva (CTVA)
Bunge (BG) - overpriced per M*

And

Newmont - mining


Archer Daniels Midland is too high to look at right now. Freeport McMoRan price stability and predictability would not make it a long term candidate for me. Looked at Barrick - which is a solid gold miner, but already have the KL/AEG position.

Any thoughts here (other than I should have bought an index - I didn't - just the way it has happened!)

P.S.  Over the years I have gotten my clock cleaned on energy and miners.  Be prepared to move quick. They are risky and swings are dramatic with years to recover. 

[Chahta]

@slooow, the price is where it was 1 year ago. Of course this is after the huge distribution in December.

[Deleted]

Feb 13, 2022 13:49:54 GMT Chahta said:

@slooow , the price is where it was 1 year ago. Of course this is after the huge distribution in December.

What is the same price?

[FD1000]

sara, you are correct on commodities, gold and others.  It is not a category I want to be longer term BUT sometimes it's an excellent choice while other categories are not doing well. As usual, trading ONE fund is so much easier than trading several companies.

[racqueteer]

Just because it might generate some discussion, on another forum, I posted the following:

Feb 12, 2022 12:15:52 GMT -5 FD1000 said:

Below, performance from one week to 10 years.

Good stuff; thank you for the data, FD!

For me personally, I always keep in mind that the 1-week results contribute 25% to the 1-month results, and THOSE contribute 33% to the 3-month results. More like a rolling overview, iow. What I SEE is some recent movement to foreign; in many cases, accounting for nearly ALL the 1-month figures. Commodities, otoh, actually seem to be fading a little from their previous pace; though they were apparently VERY productive in the 3 weeks prior to this week. In fact, most of the 3-month returns came in the LAST month. TRAMX seems (to me) to be the steadiest CURRENT producer. All depends on how you want to look at the data.

In THIS case, we accidentally have an additional piece of data: YTD which is 1.5 months. THAT indicates that in almost all the cases, MOST of the gains came during that period. So again, I see that we're maybe a little late to the party on the BIG gainers.

[Capital]

FWIW I see quite a bit more pain coming this week and for some time into the future as well. We do have an emergency FED meeting Monday; however, the Russia-Ukraine situation will be at a maximum of urgency on Wednesday when Russia will have all the troops they need in place for an invasion. The uncertainty of the possible events that could occur itself will keep the markets antsy at best and downright nasty at worst. I have no idea how the market will react when and if Russian troops cross the border. Worse yet how the market, and more important world leaders, will react, if by error or on purpose, Russian and NATO troops are somehow engaged against each other. It is very possible IMHO that in the very near future the stock market may be among the things we have the least to worry. I'm not sure any funds or investments would work if the worst comes to pass. I dearly hope that nothing dire does comes to pass from all this and that cool heads prevail in this world in which cool heads seem difficult to find.

PS - nothing in this post is meant in any way to be of a political nature even though political leaders are mentioned therein generically. My discussion would be the same no matter what political party controlled the institutions of the US Government. Please do not turn this into a political rant and rave.

[Chahta]

Feb 13, 2022 14:07:02 GMT @slooow said:

Feb 13, 2022 13:49:54 GMT Chahta said:

@slooow , the price is where it was 1 year ago. Of course this is after the huge distribution in December.

What is the same price?

@slooow , "Congrats to those of you who allocated to a broad based commodities index early on. I did not."

Sorry, I was responding to the above quote. My reference was to VCMDX and got ahead of myself.

[FD1000]

Feb 13, 2022 9:29:09 GMT Norbert said:

@newzg posted this in FD's Armchair version of this thread:

Great info, thanks.
Now, what to do with it? Move the whole equities sleeve into the 3 areas mentioned, or overallocate these areas?

I missed the above. In my world since 2000, the answer is definitely yes. Sure, you can select the easy choice and be diversified but it's not the best choice.

Diversification wasn’t good since 2000.
2000-2010: the SP500 lost money, 1% on average over 10 years. See (link). My portfolio was mainly in Value, SC, International.
2010-2021: US LC were the best and growth was the better. See 11 years performance+risk attributes from 2010/11 to 2011/11(link) ...SP500 made 15.25% annually...Growth(VOOG)=17.9%...Value(VOOV)=11.9...EM=2.8%. My stocks in 2011-2017 were mainly in LC growth.
Both times you made less money if you were diversified.

So, when I post that I liked value in 1/9/22, it means, most of my stock portion would be in value, as I did above. Since value is a big mainstream category, I don't have a problem investing at least 70% and look at value (MC, LC, international). I wouldn't have a concern owing 20% commodities.  If you keep running fund screener 2-3 times annually, you can't miss several years of better performance with a main category. There are always 1-3 better categories.
When you own limited number of funds it's easy to switch.  BTW, you don't have to switch a fund for a better risk/reward fund, as long as your fund is still a top fund.

I don't want to discuss single stocks since it's a much more complicated issue, you can invest in a great company in the worse category. Your single stock made money while others lost.  The reverse can happen too but less likely.

YTD is another proof why diversification isn't the best choice + it has higher down volatility. If you used 2-4 VALUE funds + 1 commodities fund, your stock portion probably made money.

[FD1000]

I'm only going to discuss 2 indicators(VIX + 3-line-break) I mentioned before, out of several I use.  I don't post real time anymore.
1) This week, the VIX went from 33 on Monday to 27-28 on Wed.
2) At the same time, VTV(value),VUG(growth),VGK(Europe),HYG(HY bonds) all signalled a buy using 3-line-break on March 16. Other indicators (SPY,QQQ,BKLN) signalled on March 17.
3) It's good when you can find several categories.
4) The market also went down 12-20% (SPY-QQQ)

You look at the above and it's a good time to buy. The war situation can change the above, but as a trader who sold everything weeks ago, it could be a good entry.
Usually, the more an index goes down, the faster it goes up.

Selling is your responsibility.

See VTV chart below.  See Chart(link) and change to other indexes.

Attachments:

[archer]

FD1000, The 3 line chart for VUG looks pretty similar to early Feb. What are you seeing different now vs then?Vix also fell below 30 on Feb 2. Just wondering because I'm still feeling cautious.

Perhaps clarity on interest rates are in favor of continued gains this time, but that's not part of TA charting.

[FD1000]

The biggest unknown is the war, but
1) More clarity on rates hikes
2) Stocks fell even more than in Feb.  The lower they go, the "safer" it is to buy.
3) My T/A indicators show improvement compared to Feb.

Remember, I had a good LT success for short term trades using these.

For a longer term style, VALUE is still my preferred category since Mid-Dec 2021.

[Chahta]

Mar 18, 2022 21:54:30 GMT FD1000 said:

I'm only going to discuss 2 indicators(VIX + 3-line-break) I mentioned before, out of several I use.  I don't post real time anymore.
1) This week, the VIX went from 33 on Monday to 27-28 on Wed.
2) At the same time, VTV(value),VUG(growth),VGK(Europe),HYG(HY bonds) all signalled a buy using 3-line-break on March 16. Other indicators (SPY,QQQ,BKLN) signalled on March 17.
3) It's good when you can find several categories.
4) The market also went down 12-20% (SPY-QQQ)

You look at the above and it's a good time to buy. The war situation can change the above, but as a trader who sold everything weeks ago, it could be a good entry.
Usually, the more an index goes down, the faster it goes up.

Selling is your responsibility.

See VTV chart below.  See Chart(link) and change to other indexes.

It appears IUSB may have as well.

[Deleted]

FD - Google is and has been attractive......It is attractive to me at 2550 and below and I continue to add to the position I have held for a decade. Not sure what you are using to determine "attractive." Growth has been there, moat has been there, management has been there, earnings have been there, cash and capital structure have been there. Current valuation is okay - less so at current price as rates go up. Earnings vs effect of interest rates on multiples is still in play. Since you list it under "As a trader" - perhaps you are trading it? You think it is going to break out? Good luck to you! I buy and hold until there is a compelling reason not to and expect to have Google another decade at this point.

Again - why report after the fact sales/purchases if the premise is to avoid trolls as you put it? Why then post at all? It would be no different than posting in real time. It is not a compelling model to follow if after the fact. Please post trades in real time so we can evaluate strategy. I am sure you are honest, but anonymous forums require more to be taken seriously. This applies to anyone posting trades. Forum members - please let me know if after the fact trades are useful when promoting a trading strategy and why you think so. I think they could be misleading without at least some minimum of anecdotal support - real time posts.

Inflation - as discussed for well over a year - it will easily result in price levels in excess of 25% since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed delayed too long, the Fed is going to raise like a son of a gun to get it under control - they have to. This is going to take several years - hopefully - to sort out. Not months. When the money supply stops growing, that would indicate inflation might be peaking. Depending on expectations, it might or might not. The genie is out of the bottle is the perfect analogy.  These are not my ideas, but based on research and persons I respect.

Commodities - this commodity cycle could go on 10 years.

Recession next year is a possibility - how dirty a word that is, IF it comes to pass, depends greatly on factors not yet known. But if the Fed wants us to contract, we will contract.

[FD1000]

Mar 22, 2022 10:14:22 GMT @slooow said:

FD - Google is and has been attractive......It is attractive to me at 2550 and below and I continue to add to the position I have held for a decade. Not sure what you are using to determine "attractive." Growth has been there, moat has been there, management has been there, earnings have been there, cash and capital structure have been there. Current valuation is okay - less so at current price as rates go up. Earnings vs effect of interest rates on multiples is still in play. Since you list it under "As a trader" - perhaps you are trading it? You think it is going to break out? Good luck to you! I buy and hold until there is a compelling reason not to and expect to have Google another decade at this point.

Again - why report after the fact sales/purchases if the premise is to avoid trolls as you put it? Why then post at all? It would be no different than posting in real time. It is not a compelling model to follow if after the fact. Please post trades in real time so we can evaluate strategy. I am sure you are honest, but anonymous forums require more to be taken seriously. This applies to anyone posting trades. Forum members - please let me know if after the fact trades are useful when promoting a trading strategy and why you think so. I think they could be misleading without at least some minimum of anecdotal support - real time posts.

Inflation - as discussed for well over a year - it will easily result in price levels in excess of 25% since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed delayed too long, the Fed is going to raise like a son of a gun to get it under control - they have to. This is going to take several years - hopefully - to sort out. Not months. When the money supply stops growing, that would indicate inflation might be peaking. Depending on expectations, it might or might not. The genie is out of the bottle is the perfect analogy.  These are not my ideas, but based on research and persons I respect.

Commodities - this commodity cycle could go on 10 years.

Recession next year is a possibility - how dirty a word that is, IF it comes to pass, depends greatly on factors not yet known. But if the Fed wants us to contract, we will contract.

No problem, now you get no info. I deleted it.

[fishingrod]

CNBC

We can hear the same 'could' 'may' 'might' all day long. No difference than a talking head on CNBC.

[fishingrod]

I would rather hear someone be honest and wrong in their convictions, speaking with candor. Instead of someone hiding in a veil of literary artifice that can change with the reading.

[archer]

"please let me know if after the fact trades are useful when promoting a trading strategy and why you think so. I think they could be misleading without at least some minimum of anecdotal support "

I find posting after the fact trades helpful, but in a very general sort of way, because I can follow them to see how well they worked out. I can also see what the TA indicators were at the time, providing the "after the fact" trade included the actual date of the trade, or at least the week. I think the key is to focus on the strategy, with the trade serving merely as a reference point.

[Deleted]

Fair enough Archer. My take is we are all doing the best we can with the strategies we have devised. It is intriguing if someone is constantly a "winner," never a loser. If that can be substantiated on an ongoing basis, that would be valuable information. Unfortunately - and I did make clear questioning honesty was not an issue - to be seriously considered as a viable strategy, backward looking transactions aren't useful to support use of a strategy. Particularly with the human element which we all have. I understand completely if someone is being picked apart and told their choices are misguided, and decides to abstain from real time posts. I have not seen that behavior on this forum. I wouldn't even care if someone said they were doing something and really didn't - at least it is a real hypothesis and not backward. I am surprised at the reaction and truly hope FD will consider real time posts on this forum.

[alvinthechipmunk]

Feb 12, 2022 16:04:45 GMT fritzo489 said:

FD1000 , Will you be investing in any of the above mentioned funds ? I've been looking at commodities , but thinking I'm late !
Have a good Superbowl weekend, fritzo489

"Late." Yes, my thinking, too. Am I not very late to the Commodities Party? 22nd March, '22? 

[FD1000]

No problem whatsoever. Last time I posted what to do on March 18. That was just 2 days after I saw that my indicators were flashing.
From now on, no more stuff like that, just generic stuff.

No specific posts of what I do = no complaints 

[fishingrod]

Mar 22, 2022 20:10:41 GMT FD1000 said:

No problem whatsoever. Last time I posted what to do on March 18. That was just 2 days after I saw that my indicators were flashing.
From now on, no more stuff like that, just generic stuff.

No specific posts of what I do = no complaints 

You never post specifics about what you do anyway. You claim you do, but I have never seen " I bought this today for my portfolio" from you.

It is always weeks past and posted with such a vagueness that anyone could wiggle out.

[archer]

These complaints about FD's lack of detail and not posting trades in real time have been the off topic of many threads on different forums over the years. I've never understood why it matters. I'm just glad I'm not held to the same scrutiny. I suppose the reason I am not is because no one considers me as someone that might actually provide actionable input. That's OK, but I point this out as an indication that FD probably is held in that regard by some of us. Maybe I just use his information differently than others here.

[anitya]

Good posts are thoughtful, take time and effort, and do not include any personal political biases. If this latest taking exception to FD's posting is related to his yesterday's post (seems to have been deleted now) on what he did yesterday and why, I think it was one of the best posts from him (and possibly by anybody on this forum). I read it yesterday evening and I presume he posted it after the market close. Any more real time is not possible and is an unreasonable expectation. If I recall correctly, in addition to posting what he did, he provided his reasoning, what he expects the market conditions might look like in the near future and how to profit from it. People are free to disagree (in silence or in writing) with some or all of the content in his post.

I would like him to continue to make posts like that. It is not necessary for him to post specific funds he is buying or selling, unless he chooses to share that information. If one finds the information he shares about markets / investment not useful, how hard is it to skip it?

If any one thinks my assessment of his post is misplaced / mistaken, please share it if you saved it and I will be more than happy to reconsider my thoughts shared above.

I would prefer that we do not tell him or others what not to share if they are not being offensive to others.

Edit: It took me a while to draft my post and in the meantime archer posted.  I did not mean to duplicate his thoughts or make his post less meaningful. 

[Deleted]

Okay - I apologize if saying that posting actual trades at the time of trades by a trader would substantiate a system, caused such angst. FD constantly says he doesn't post anymore for reasons I have no idea of, but believe it was trolls. Great. But then posting after the fact frankly doesn't make sense to me. Promoting a system, switching to what is good this day or that several days later I find odd, but defer to others. Still, I see no reason I cannot voice suggestion and request to make it more meaningful. If not, that's fine. As far as not complaining of others doing this, I know of no one else who does this, and more and more lately. Let me also suggest, if someone doesn't want comment from me, they don't mention my name in a post.

And something else - if someone has the moxie to refer to themselves as a great bond investor, surely they can deal with a forum comment in a different way than has been done.