Deleted
Deleted Member
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BABA
Nov 18, 2021 22:28:15 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2021 22:28:15 GMT
My mind tells me stay from Chinese ADRs, too risky. The risk reward does not make sense.
My greed tells me this could be good opportunity to buy good companies stock for decent price and make some quick bucks.
For those owning or following BABA and other Chinese ADRs, What is your thinking on BABA after todays results and decline?
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BABA
Nov 18, 2021 23:20:50 GMT
Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 18, 2021 23:20:50 GMT
@waffle , In short who knows. BABA is the far end of my spec play money and I bot a little today. Whenever a huge company drops 11+% late in the year on news, that really wasn't that bad, I suspect it is a combination of fear and year end tax loss selling. I dropped all my China specific funds in Sept or so. I took a small % and threw at BABA instead of traveling to Vegas. But my hands are a little bloody with that falling knife thing. Let's check back in 6 months and see what happens. If I sell it, or buy more I'll post on the BSW thread. Stay well.
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Post by win1177 on Nov 18, 2021 23:33:40 GMT
@waffle , In short who knows. BABA is the far end of my spec play money and I bot a little today. Whenever a huge company drops 11+% late in the year on news, that really wasn't that bad, I suspect it is a combination of fear and year end tax loss selling. I dropped all my China specific funds in Sept or so. I took a small % and threw at BABA instead of traveling to Vegas. But my hands are a little bloody with that falling knife thing. Let's check back in 6 months and see what happens. If I sell it, or buy more I'll post on the BSW thread. Stay well. I bought some more BABA today at $142, my previous purchase (at $200) has been PAINFUL so far. The stock is “cheap” on multiple levels, main difficulty is the Chinese govt. interfering in the companies function. We’ll see, this is somewhat of a “gamble”. Win
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BABA
Nov 18, 2021 23:35:19 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 18, 2021 23:35:19 GMT
Let's see if it bounces before it hits 130.
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mrc
Lieutenant
Posts: 104
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BABA
Nov 18, 2021 23:53:14 GMT
Post by mrc on Nov 18, 2021 23:53:14 GMT
I added to my MCHFX instead of BABA though I tempted to buy BABA. I added to my BABA holding last time it touched low 140s to bring down my cost to $180s.
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BABA
Nov 19, 2021 0:19:05 GMT
Post by steelpony10 on Nov 19, 2021 0:19:05 GMT
I’ve seen China has deep economic problems right now. Between the pandemic and jettisoned one child policy a while back they’re in deeper trouble then most. Although I also saw they are now the largest world economy.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2021 0:56:57 GMT
Well, I really don't know the future here. I do know my short career in buying individual emerging market stocks is over. Lesson learned and as I entered knowing the risks, I am sanguine,
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BABA
Nov 19, 2021 1:40:19 GMT
Post by richardsok on Nov 19, 2021 1:40:19 GMT
My mind tells me stay from Chinese ADRs, too risky. The risk reward does not make sense. My greed tells me this could be good opportunity to buy good companies stock for decent price and make some quick bucks. For those owning or following BABA and other Chinese ADRs, What is your thinking on BABA after todays results and decline? I wouldn't touch it or any individual Chinese stock. It's wrong for me and my style of investing / trading on about five levels. That said, the last time it dropped to its current level it rebounded fast and hard.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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BABA
Nov 19, 2021 2:19:24 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2021 2:19:24 GMT
My mind tells me stay from Chinese ADRs, too risky. The risk reward does not make sense. My greed tells me this could be good opportunity to buy good companies stock for decent price and make some quick bucks. For those owning or following BABA and other Chinese ADRs, What is your thinking on BABA after todays results and decline? I wouldn't touch it or any individual Chinese stock. It's wrong for me and my style of investing / trading on about five levels. That said, the last time it dropped to its current level it rebounded fast and hard. I wouldn't buy it. The government is unpredictable and that affects the price unpredictably as well. I will be out of it at some point with a loss.
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Post by anitya on Nov 19, 2021 6:46:18 GMT
Not tuned in enough to make short term trades. For intermediate term trade, I do not see any reason to rush in now; I would wait until Winter Olympics.
When I went in with my initial buy to learn, I was hoping I would make a long term China play but I learned that I can not make long term investment in China at this time. So, I have not increased and do not plan to increase based on price action. Not planning to sell unless another 10% drop in price of my investment. Note, traditionally I have been very light (mid single digit %) in international investment - so, I may not represent the investor to include in your sampling.
I saw another thread on EM. If there is such a thing as a European EM fund, I would be interested to check it out. Otherwise, just happy being home bound.
Yes, equity valuations in the US relative to other countries are high but may be for a reason. There is a reason why some CEFs trade perennially at a premium. We happily buy extra handfuls when those same CEFs go on a discount but does not mean we buy other CEFs that trade perennially at a discount.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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BABA
Dec 1, 2021 21:29:23 GMT
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2021 21:29:23 GMT
This has sure turned out to be painful. Anyone see an upside here during year end? Now at a 4 year low, I am about ready to capitulate. Have turned my EM investments over to a managed fund.
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BABA
Dec 1, 2021 21:56:57 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 1, 2021 21:56:57 GMT
This has sure turned out to be painful. Anyone see an upside here during year end? Now at a 4 year low, I am about ready to capitulate. Have turned my EM investments over to a managed fund. The next support comes in at $90. $75 looks stronger. That is based on the weekly price & volume chart.
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BABA
Dec 1, 2021 22:04:54 GMT
Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 1, 2021 22:04:54 GMT
This has sure turned out to be painful. Anyone see an upside here during year end? Now at a 4 year low, I am about ready to capitulate. Have turned my EM investments over to a managed fund. If anyone really knew they wouldn't be discussing it here. Having said that, coupled with the fact my position is minuscule, I bet (literally) this time next year BABA will be >180, which would be a nice gain for me. I think some end of year drama, bad headlines and some very legit concerns are merging to drive down the price. I sold all my China specific funds back in August and September and took about 10% of that to throw at BABA. Who knows?! 🤞🏻🪘
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BABA
Dec 1, 2021 22:34:43 GMT
Post by fritzo489 on Dec 1, 2021 22:34:43 GMT
Fear not ! Santa will arrive on time again this year. Unfortunately it may be a chunk of coal !!
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BABA
Dec 1, 2021 22:36:10 GMT
Post by Chahta on Dec 1, 2021 22:36:10 GMT
I wouldn't touch China at all! Communist schemes fitting into capitalistic schemes don't mix well.
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BABA
Dec 1, 2021 23:33:29 GMT
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 1, 2021 23:33:29 GMT
I wouldn't touch China at all! Communist schemes fitting into capitalistic schemes don't mix well. Chahta, this has been exactly my sentiment all along about China and, in fact, I got rid of all international equity funds from my portfolio some time ago. But... just but... I changed my mind of late and made an entry into China ETFs. A small % of the portfolio but I will monitor and see how it goes. My reasoning:1. China has alternate "social media", "internet" companies that serve 20% of world's population 2. Relative performance the last 12 months places Chinese markets in the "value" territory. Too much pessimism.. which is exactly when opportunities arise. Is this the best time to enter China? Perhaps not but I see relative value now. 3. CCP interference could/would continue but CCP is not illogical - they need "two-way" access to world capital markets - I am betting that China is an investable market now. 4. Most importantly, US markets are over-valued with extreme sense of optimism and priced for perfection. "Be fearful when others are greedy.. yaddy yaddy yadda.." Only time will tell...
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BABA
Dec 2, 2021 6:08:22 GMT
Post by anitya on Dec 2, 2021 6:08:22 GMT
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BABA
Dec 2, 2021 12:54:13 GMT
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 2, 2021 12:54:13 GMT
anitya, thanks for posting. Key take away for me from Morgan Stanley is that the forward P/E for China has come down from 18 to 13 through the course of 2021, and of course, MS is bearish. That is a "good enough" sign at least for me to tiptoe into China equities.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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BABA
Dec 2, 2021 13:07:00 GMT
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 13:07:00 GMT
Thanks Anitya. Interesting clip. Not comforting. This VIE business looks disruptive as well.
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 2, 2021 13:13:08 GMT
Another BABA story... link possible delisting from the US? dripping blood on the street..
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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BABA
Dec 2, 2021 13:37:29 GMT
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 13:37:29 GMT
Another BABA story... link possible delisting from the US? dripping blood on the street.. This has been a known concern. Just getting press right now. See anitya's post where MS has been monitoring the VIE situations for awhile. Yes a concern, but not new.
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BABA
Dec 2, 2021 16:29:26 GMT
Post by anitya on Dec 2, 2021 16:29:26 GMT
Just a quick thought re China angst and for those that find it difficult to pass up a seeming bargain - instead of putting new money now in China equities is it possible to invest in non-Chinese companies that have majority or substantial part of their business (revenue, profits, ect.) in China? Just a variation on the ARTYX theme.
This might buy you time to see how the China vs the rest of the world relationship evolves but also keep your toes in China in the meantime.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 18:23:39 GMT
Sold out this morning as did Win.
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 3, 2021 5:26:03 GMT
An interesting article regarding EM and China (with several EM funds highlighted) was recently posted on MFO. Link
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Post by bb2 on Dec 3, 2021 20:50:14 GMT
Friends don't let their friends invest in China.
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BABA
Dec 3, 2021 21:41:36 GMT
Post by anitya on Dec 3, 2021 21:41:36 GMT
@waffle 's post below provides Prof Damodaran's analysis, which I thought was on point. The Prof is down only 5ish% on his China (Tencent) investment, assuming he is still holding on it. big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/10354In terms of bottom fishing, I think all China companies that have their principal listing in the US will eventually delist from the US (i.e., that train has left the station). I do not know if the US market participants have fully accepted that reality and have reflected that in the stock prices or there is more price pain to come as there are always incorrigible investment optimists that are slow to accept reality. Thanks to @waffle .
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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BABA
Dec 3, 2021 23:01:26 GMT
Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 23:01:26 GMT
A word of thanks - many here and on armchair raised the alarm on BABA. I wish I had listened. Win and the rest of y'all made posts and posted links that finally got me to cut my losses. Because of that, it is ending up as a bad story, but not a terrible one. Thank you!
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BABA
Dec 4, 2021 1:00:38 GMT
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 4, 2021 1:00:38 GMT
A word of thanks - many here and on armchair raised the alarm on BABA. I wish I had listened. Win and the rest of y'all made posts and posted links that finally got me to cut my losses. Because of that, it is ending up as a bad story, but not a terrible one. Thank you! My few days of China experiment also ended today when I sold the 3 ETFs for tiny loss. They were just starter positions - so no big deal. Early lessons learned are always better.😎😃
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BABA
Dec 5, 2021 12:57:58 GMT
Post by Chahta on Dec 5, 2021 12:57:58 GMT
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BABA
Jan 12, 2022 16:08:54 GMT
Post by Fearchar on Jan 12, 2022 16:08:54 GMT
BABA has been surging lately.
I bought too early and was about to throw in the towel. Now it's become my best performer. I own enough 0.6% in combined accounts (too much when it was cratering, but enough that I'm not about to buy more)
It's above the M* BUY limit, but well below fair value of $188.
Earnings are solid and growth rate reasonable. Next earning release is 2/1/2022. Real question is how much the Chinese Gov't can be trusted.
.. maybe I'll buy more...
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