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Post by xray on Jun 18, 2022 14:47:32 GMT
Appears that "CASH" will be the order of the day for a while. Panic is setting in and many investors and traders are heading for the doors. Mutual funds selling usually "follow" each others (cumulative) and their selling has a "direct effect" on the overall market. Add to this that many investors are making major portfolio changes and the "outcome" for all of this is quite unknown at this time (analysts have many different opinions)....
Currently some of us are at 75% cash (similar to 2008/2009) and not afraid to go to 100% (like some of us did in 2008/2009 for 6 months). if I see the writing in the sand (ashes) it will be a further signal that we "cannot" fight the markets direction and those that do will do so with their own risk tolerance....
We must keep in mind that some of us income oriented investors "CANNOT", "WILL NOT" sell certain securities because we just get too much dividend/distributions and selling (in our thinking) would currently be quite foolish. What am I talking about??? Well take AVK, LGI and ECC for instance. All gave us EOY (end of year extra cashflow given to their shareholders - so our current dividend for the rest of this year, with the current dividend and extra dividend = 2.79, 2.0894, 2.18 per share respectively). Good CapGain remains. Many of us realize that many securities do not do well in down markets like they do in up markets, but, the past good performing securities (under the same management) should do well in the recovery mode. many of us buy the "MANAGER" or CFO performance not the security....
Another factor in holding onto certain securities in our portfolio's is that many securities in the portfolio have been "INCREASING" their dividends. Take ECC (on 2/14) increased their dividend by 17%. Don't believe they will be decreasing it any time soon (IMHO)....
Also, some securities have announced "BUY BACK" programs (at their discretion to enhance shareholder value) so with the current environment many buyback programs will be activated by the better securities. The challenge for us is that we would like to take advantage of this also (if our analysis follows that the investment is timed well)....
In addition, some RO's (rights offerings) have just been completed (or near completion) and some of these RO's look very promising for when the market again turns positive. Monitoring the RO final closure price against the current MktPrc (and following the insiders) could give us a very good buy signal....
Add to this, that some securities are currently reporting increases to their NAV's and book values. Why should we all rush, sell all shares at the selling door??
Bottom Line: Careful analysis of what we buy and when we sell remains a very important consideration. Following the crowd to the exits without some advance thinking by us can be very dangerous to our financial health....
Good luck to all.....
One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 18, 2022 16:11:45 GMT
"Bottom Line: Careful analysis of what we buy and when we sell remains a very important consideration. Following the crowd to the exits without some advance thinking by us can be very dangerous to our financial health...."
Those are words to live by!!!!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2022 16:41:19 GMT
Agree.
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Post by xray on Jun 19, 2022 19:11:49 GMT
uncleharley, Interesting analysis data that was completed this weekend. From the closed end world (CEF's), HGLB ran away in maintaining their upside numb3rs. HGLB has a current 10.93% dividend (with a very big discount) for new income oriented buyers (NAV 12.13, MktPrc 9.43 currently). Some of us who have been holding this for a while now (with current substantial CapGain) are doing well. Wish we could buy more but the 6% rule (maximum for any one security) prevails and excessive risk is not in my cards that are yet to be played.... CAPL, KYN, and USDP also doing exceptionally well and maintaining their current positive trend and giving us some stable dividend returns (9.24% - 10.81%) currently.... Looking at some investor favorites, that are not performing well at all (not currently held in portfolio but on my watch list) (RIV, THW). Observing my watch list's current performance data, I am observing disaster performance (sell) in EDF (has been reducing their dividend consistently with a NAV collapse), GGT (negative data way off the charts as their NAV collapses and are still paying a un-sustaining dividend that investors continually like), GOF (big premium and collapsing NAV), VGI, and ZTR (collapsing NAV's with ZTR coming off a RO).... My total weekly analysis numb3rs currently shows approximately 32% of the securities doing well in the current down market. I guess that the market is not doing as bad as many analysts have been stating in some of their discussions. We should learn more this coming week.... Bottom Line: There is some " GOLD" out there but we have to pan for it.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 22, 2022 17:05:45 GMT
Appears that "SMART BUYING" is beginning....
Looking over my securities, FSK had a insider buy for 4,500sh @ 21.20 on 6/9, GLP had a insider buy for 54,000sh (appears they bought back their own stock) @ 20.46 on 6/17, RTL had a insider buy for 7,200sh @ 6.94. Smart buy's (when comparing to previous MktPrc's) and confirming some of our current buying activity....
Dollar cost averaging or SB (sell, and then buyback at the lower MktPrc) can be a profitable way to use some current cash and prepare for CapGain (if/when the market again turns positive and hopefully in our lifetime)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 23, 2022 17:16:55 GMT
uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, My 5/7 post: Comment: Reviewing my current volatility for income investors (income oriented) portfolio in the current market under my following ("SECURITY HITS NEW LOW") analysis rules: 1... Securities in current portfolio not new in portfolio for less than 30 market days 2... Income investor using basic Buy/Hold type investing 3... uses "value" only investing methodology 4... analyzes current portfolio not greater than 14 days old 5... proactive in making changes to portfolio when data indicates to do so 6... reactive when analysis follows market analysis and will make the required changes 7... reviews "Quarterly analysis data" for changes similar to what Mutual and CEF funds do when they change their portfolio's ---------- Completed Analysis Status Results (COB 6/22): 37% of portfolio's "continues "as is" plus any adding additional shares 26%* of portfolio's "Completed "Selling/Buyback" (SB) at the lower MktPrc's (increases portfolio previous dividend payouts) 12% of portfolio's "New" 25% of portfolio cash * Sell/BuyBack definitions were previously posted.... We should keep in mind that dividend paying securities do "NOT" drop (as much) like regular securities and many investors change their strategy and "start" investing in dividend securities when any serious market drop is occurring (especially in "unknown" type markets where market direction is very questionable. Some cash is always needed in our portfolio's to take advantage of any panic type selling (IMHO).... In addition, we must keep in mind that trying to time the market is virtually impossible but using the SB methodology keeps the small investor in the game (going forward). We should "always" try to be "under" the current "insider MktBuy prices's on all of our investments. If/when insiders are selling, we shouldn't be buying. Insiders are supposed to know when their companies become "undervalued" IMHO.... One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Jun 23, 2022 22:03:49 GMT
X - Speaking of insider buys.....
The GLP insider buy was little more than 10,000sh. Nothing of real significance.
Where I did see whopping big buys this week was BRK-B. Gignormous.
That guy J Dondero has been steadily accumulating NXRT NXDT and NREF for months.
Couldn't find any news of a FSK buy. Big div, of course -- but appears to be barely earning enough to cover it.
I have warm & fuzzy feelings about FSK and GLP, at this level -- which is good reason to be wary of them. CAPL is back to support. Glad I didn't chase it. After their deep plunges might be time to make some SMALL buys. But my real attention is focused on BRK-B. Don't own it -- just watching it.
I bought a small position in DINO at the wrong moment a couple of weeks ago.... too late to sell it now. Must ride.
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Post by anitya on Jun 23, 2022 23:29:48 GMT
richardsok, I sold some Energy in the past week. May be they are all at support now. I own BRK-B (3+%) for a while and today it made a new 52 week low. The company has bought back its own shares at prices much higher than the current price. So, I am inclined to think it is a good buy at this level, subject to the general sector / market trend. I do not see any recent insider buys - I checked Forms 4 going back to April. It is on my watch list to add
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Post by richardsok on Jun 24, 2022 4:17:22 GMT
richardsok , I sold some Energy in the past week. May be they are all at support now. I own BRK-B (3+%) for a while and today it made a new 52 week low. The company has bought back its own shares at prices much higher than the current price. So, I am inclined to think it is a good buy at this level, subject to the general sector / market trend. I do not see any recent insider buys - I checked Forms 4 going back to April. It is on my watch list to add Big insider buys just appeared on finviz.com.
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Post by anitya on Jun 24, 2022 8:23:58 GMT
richardsok , I sold some Energy in the past week. May be they are all at support now. I own BRK-B (3+%) for a while and today it made a new 52 week low. The company has bought back its own shares at prices much higher than the current price. So, I am inclined to think it is a good buy at this level, subject to the general sector / market trend. I do not see any recent insider buys - I checked Forms 4 going back to April. It is on my watch list to add Big insider buys just appeared on finviz.com. That accuracy of that Finviz information can be checked by looking at the Cost column which shows only $55+ per share and also clicking on the SEC Forms 4 in the last column. Notwithstanding the info in the other columns, all that FinViz reporting is only w/r/t acquisition of OXY shares. However, at the SEC website, one can see the recent Warren acquisition of Berk-B shares when he converted Berk-A shares into B shares, which he does before donating the B shares to charities. Not insider buys.
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Post by xray on Jun 27, 2022 20:15:04 GMT
richardsok, Your: X - Speaking of insider buys..... The GLP insider buy was little more than 10,000sh. Nothing of real significance. Couldn't find any news of a FSK buy. Big div, of course -- but appears to be barely earning enough to cover it. I have warm & fuzzy feelings about FSK and GLP, at this level -- which is good reason to be wary of them. CAPL is back to support. Glad I didn't chase it. After their deep plunges might be time to make some SMALL buys. But my real attention is focused on BRK-B. Don't own it -- just watching it. ----------- 1... FSK HEDGE FUND NEWS:
Dividend Yield as of June 24: 14.47% FS KKR Capital Corp. (NYSE:FSK) is an American business development company that provides customized credit solutions to private middle-market companies in the US. In Q1 2022, the company’s net interest income stood at $0.72, which beat estimates by $0.07. In addition to this, its total investment income saw 162.3% year-over-year growth at $396 million. On May 9, FS KKR Capital Corp. (NYSE:FSK) announced a 7.9% hike in its quarterly dividend to $0.68 per share. The stock’s dividend yield stood at 14.47%, as of the close of June 24. In March, Wells Fargo upgraded FS KKR Capital Corp. (NYSE:FSK) to Equal Weight, with a $21.50 price target, appreciating the company’s improving credit profile. According to Insider Monkey’s Q1 database, 13 hedge funds were bullish on FS KKR Capital Corp. (NYSE:FSK), up from 11 in the previous quarter. The collective value of these stakes is over $165.4 million. Beach Point Capital Management was the leading shareholder of the Pennsylvania-based company, owning over 4.4 million shares, valued at $102 million. 2... GLP Always found that GLP was a buy at <$20. I follow insider buy's pretty closely because I don't want to be buying into any of their selling. Have held it for quite a while now. Normally GLP hangs around 20 but currently is @ 23.83 +0.76 +3.29%. Considered fairly good in a changing market.... 3...CAPL Always found that CAPL was a buy at <20 also. Considered somewhat secure in downside markets but who really knows.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 29, 2022 21:17:15 GMT
Zacks Equity Research Tue, June 28, 2022, 9:40 AM
While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.
Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks.
Luckily, Zacks has developed its own Style Scores system in an effort to find stocks with specific traits. Value investors will be interested in the system's "Value" category. Stocks with both "A" grades in the Value category and high Zacks Ranks are among the strongest value stocks on the market right now.
CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) is a stock many investors are watching right now. CAPL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and an A for Value.
Value investors also use the P/S ratio. The P/S ratio is is calculated as price divided by sales. This is a prefered metric because revenue can't really be manipulated, so sales are often a truer performance indicator. CAPL has a P/S ratio of 0.19. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.23.
Finally, our model also underscores that CAPL has a P/CF ratio of 6.66. This metric focuses on a firm's operating cash flow and is often used to find stocks that are undervalued based on the strength of their cash outlook. CAPL's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 7. Over the past 52 weeks, CAPL's P/CF has been as high as 9.37 and as low as 6.28, with a median of 7.49.
If you're looking for another solid Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing - Master Limited Partnerships value stock, take a look at Sunoco (SUN). SUN is a # 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Value score of A.
Sunoco sports a P/B ratio of 3.96 as well; this compares to its industry's price-to-book ratio of 3. In the past 52 weeks, SUN's P/B has been as high as 5.76, as low as 3.78, with a median of 4.80.
These are just a handful of the figures considered in CrossAmerica Partners and Sunoco's great Value grade. Still, they help show that the stock is likely being undervalued at the moment. Add this to the strength of its earnings outlook, and we can clearly see that CAPL and SUN is an impressive value stock right now.
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Disclosure: Some of us continue to maintain a full portfolio position in CAPL....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jun 29, 2022 21:36:35 GMT
MARKETS NEWS TRADING NEWS Part of TOP STOCKS
By NATHAN REIFF Updated June 27, 2022 Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are publicly traded companies that allow individual investors to buy shares in real estate portfolios that receive income from a variety of properties. They allow investors to invest easily in the real estate sector, which includes companies that own, develop, and manage residential, commercial, and industrial properties.
Among other requirements, REITs are required to pay out at least 90% of their taxable income as dividends. A key REIT metric is funds from operations (FFO), a measure of earnings particular to the industry. Some big names within the sector include American Tower Corp., Crown Castle International Corp., and Prologis Inc.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted the commercial real estate industry, as workers around the world have adapted to working from home and various lockdown measures have been enacted. Despite the economy’s recovery, the industry’s recovery has been uneven. Some companies are moving to new commercial office locations, others are repurposing existing spaces, and others are redesigning their existing space.1 Spurred by interest rates hikes imposed by the Federal Reserve, some analysts predicted that the residential housing market may see a correction or even a crash.2
REITs, as represented by an exchange-traded fund (ETF)—the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE)—have outperformed the broader market. XLRE’s -3.2% total return over the past 12 months bested the benchmark Russell 1000 index, which has provided a total return of -9.4%.3 These market performance numbers and the statistics in the tables below are as of June 24, 2022.
Here are the top three REITs with the best value, fastest growth, and most momentum.
Best Value REITs These are the REITs with the lowest 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Because profits can be returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks, a low P/E ratio shows that you’re paying less for each dollar of profit generated.
Best Value REITs Price ($) Market Cap ($B) 12-Month Trailing P/E Ratio Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) 6.33 9.2 3.5 New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ) 9.82 4.6 4.1 SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) 49.49 3.2 7.3 Source: YCharts
1...Annaly Capital Management Inc.: Annaly Capital invests in real estate and related assets, including agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), residential and commercial real estate, and middle-market lending. On June 8, Annaly announced a Q2 2022 common stock dividend of $0.22 per share. The dividend is payable July 29 to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2022.4 2...New Residential Investment Corp.: New Residential Investment is a public REIT investing in the residential housing sector. The company's portfolio includes mortgage-servicing-related assets, residential loans, non-agency securities, and similar investments. 3...SL Green Realty Corp.: SL Green Realty is a self-managed REIT which acquires, develops, manages, and operates commercial properties in the New York metropolitan area. As of March 2022, it held interests in 71 buildings totaling 34.7 million square feet. The company reported on June 6 that it would sell a vacant office condominium at 609 Fifth Avenue to an undisclosed domestic investor for a gross sale price of $100.5 million. The transaction is expected to close in June.5
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Comment: On 5/3 NRZ reported a book value of >12.00. Stable rising dividend. Last insider MktBuy was for 100,000sh @ 10.10. Current data (sole analysis opinion data) indicated a volatility of "2" (fluctuates in MktPrc more than normal - not stable). Current MktPrc is currently 9.68. X-div 6/29, pay 7/29 with the best current MktBuyPrc <10.26....
Disclosure: Some of us continue to hold a maximum portfolio position allowed in NRZ....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 30, 2022 1:52:03 GMT
xray,...I noticed you started this thread about "selling begins" in November 2021. How timely, as this was the peak in the stock market... Speaking of selling, here is one person who did some selling recently: --------------------------------------------- Someone from Capecod, who typically owns things like PDI, posted the following today: "I had a long talk with myself last night and said, "Self, you are doing what you have criticized others for and advised against for years. You are sitting here nearly 95% long on the biggest most effective weekly MACD sell signal in memory. AND if you lighten up, all you can lose is some opportunity versus just risking more real capital losses on a bearish signal. Of course it's nutty to be selling ANY 10-11-12 % earning portfolios, but we are way past such concerns in this market --- this is pure market dynamics." So I just went through and sold 35% of everything. Doesn't feel smart, but I was just getting poorer ignoring rules that worked for decades."------------------------------------------------------------ Hmmm. R48
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Post by xray on Jun 30, 2022 19:07:21 GMT
xray, uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, retiredat48, Your: "I had a long talk with myself last night and said, "Self, you are doing what you have criticized others for and advised against for years. You are sitting here nearly 95% long on the biggest most effective weekly MACD sell signal in memory. AND if you lighten up, all you can lose is some opportunity versus just risking more real capital losses on a bearish signal. Of course it's nutty to be selling ANY 10-11-12 % earning portfolios, but we are way past such concerns in this market --- this is pure market dynamics." So I just went through and sold 35% of everything. Doesn't feel smart, but I was just getting poorer ignoring rules that worked for decades." ---------- One of the "options" some of us are currently using, when the market seriously drops, is using some of our "cash" that was builtup (25%-75% (dependent on our weekly analysis) and using "part" of this cash to "SB" (Sell 100%, and then Buyback 25%-100% at the lower MktPrc and dollar cost average " DOWN" ... explained in much more detail with my older previous posts) those securities that have performed well (and are continuing to do so ... Statistically against the "many" others). We sell those securities that are considered over-valued.... Keep in mind that when we are doing this, we are " INCREASING" our portfolio dividends (same dividends with a lower mkt BuyPrc). Any 10-11-12% dividend is now increasing to 11-12-13% and is protecting us (somewhat) for any dividend cuts that may occur in the short term..... Your selling of 35% has now given you " OPPORTUNITY" (as some of us see it) to put some of that "CASH" (15-20%) to dollar cost average or "replace" some (previous over-valued) higher mktPrc's with lower MktPrc's (current undervalued securities going forward). Some of us continue to buy undervalued securities and sell overvalued securities (for cash to be used elsewhere). Many of us always review Insider Buying activity to give us a verification of any analysis. Overvalued securities are considered like those like GLP (insider buy 4500sh @ 21.20 on 6/17 ... investor buying activity observed on 6/27 below 21.00 and below insider buy ) with a 20-24 MktPrc range (where we, by analysis, consider 20+ a buying opportunity (maximum portfolio holding +) and 24- as a selling opportunity (50-100%) for CapGain).... The "SB" can be used many times for other securities in our portfolio. However, always however's, careful analysis is required against where the market is going. Currently, the market is in turmoil and opportunity presents itself. Add to this, we are at the end of the Qtr and at Midyear, and thus portfolio managers are "churning" their portfolio's (changing for the shareholder Qtrly reporting) so we can be sure that next week will show some big winners where there were losers and some big losers where there were winners (from the previous Qtr).... One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Hope this helps a little.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 30, 2022 23:42:47 GMT
xray,...to be clear, that was NOT me doing that selling. R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 30, 2022 23:45:17 GMT
For PDI cef holders, I posted this on another forum: -----------------------------------------------------
deedee posted this: " Rates may be much higher in each of the past 3 months, but those with mortgages are making their payments with record-setting regularity. The overall delinquency rate fell 0.05% to 2.75% in May--the third consecutive record low. Serious delinquencies (90 days or more past due, but not in foreclosure) are still 45% higher than pre-pandemic levels, but fell sharply (7%) from last month. Foreclosure starts were down even more, falling 12% from April. Starts remain far below pre-pandemic levels, but active foreclosures increased modestly. One other statistic measured in the First Look data is "prepayment" activity. This refers to a loan being paid off for any reason (sale, refi, foreclosure, short sale, etc). With interest rates surging in 2022 and refi demand drying up to near record lows, it's no surprise to see a huge decline in prepayments, falling 11.1% in May and 59.1% year over year. deedee note: last sentence is another signal supporting that HELOCS and other personal lines of credit financials (often credit card draws) will do well: retail banks, credit card companies, and short term loan services for example. Homeowners are going to hang on to that 3% 30 year mortgage for as long as they can, which brings us to the end of cash out refis that helped keep consumers spending freely. Taking a 2nd mortgage or credit card loans will be viewed as short-term credit, which on a weighted average rate basis, will be tolerable.
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R48 reply: Guess that's why I continue to hold two large HELOCs, one at 3% fixed; another at prime minus 3/4%, each with about 16 years duration left. I will likely pass away holding these, as I am also not interested in selling the underlying real estate backing them. For those investing in PDI...what deedee points out is important to understand why PDI NAV has been in that slow downtrend. PDI owns a lot of mortgage backed loans, and leveraged up. So when the mortgage rate quickly almost doubled to above 6%, that meant the existing mortgages held by PDI were worth less on the open market. Who would buy a 3.75% loan, when new ones are available at 6%? Further, the fact is that with the higher mortgage rates, people will hold onto their existing homes/lower rates longer. Much longer. We see this in the stats. This holding longer means the DURATION or maturity of PDI mortgages is increased. This means, for each one percent move higher in rates, the existing mortgage prices fall in price further than previously. A positive point is the delinquency rate on such mortgages fall...like who would default on a mortgage where the home has doubled in price. So as the closed end fund, PDI, rolls over its loans into higher yielding mortgages, it will benefit. Then again, it has to pay more on borrowed fund rates as existing borrowings mature.
R48
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Post by xray on Jul 24, 2022 19:58:25 GMT
My: One of the "options" some of us are currently using, when the market seriously drops, is using some of our "cash" that was builtup (25%-75% (dependent on our weekly analysis) and using "part" of this cash to "SB" (Sell 100%, and then Buyback 25%-100% at the lower MktPrc and dollar cost average "DOWN" ... explained in much more detail with my older previous posts) those securities that have performed well (and are continuing to do so ... Statistically against the "many" others). We continue to sell those securities that are considered over-valued.... Keep in mind that some investors are doing this, we are "INCREASING" our portfolio dividends (same dividends with a lower mktBuyPrc). Any 10-11-12% dividend is now increasing to 11-12-13% and is protecting us (somewhat) for any dividend cuts that may occur in the short term..... Selling has now given "OPPORTUNITY" (as some of us see it) to put some of that "CASH" (15-20%) to dollar cost average or "replace" some (previous over-valued) higher mktPrc's with lower MktPrc's (current undervalued securities going forward). Some of us continue to buy undervalued securities and sell overvalued securities (for cash to be used elsewhere). Many of us always review Insider Buying activity to give us a verification of any analysis. Overvalued securities are considered like those like GLP (insider buy 4500sh @ 21.20 on 6/17 ... investor buying activity observed on 6/27 below 21.00 and below insider buy with a 20-24 MktPrc range (where we, by analysis, consider 20+ a buying opportunity (maximum portfolio holding +) and 24- as a selling opportunity (50-100%) for CapGain).... The "SB" can be used many times for other securities in our portfolio. However, always however's, careful analysis is required against where the market is going. Currently, the market is in turmoil and opportunity presents itself. Add to this, we are at the end of the Qtr and at Midyear, and thus portfolio managers are "churning" their portfolio's (changing for the shareholder Qtrly reporting) so we can be sure that next week will show some big winners where there were losers and some big losers where there were winners (from the previous Qtr)....
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Appears that the excessive market selling has been abated for now. We are currently in the "TRADERS MARKET" and we will see many swings in MktPrc's. Many investors appear reluctant to get back into the market with the FED continuing to raise rates (in the short term). However, always however's, income investors continue to find some interesting securities that are now considered "undervalued"....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 28, 2022 19:29:55 GMT
My: Post by xray on Jun 18, 2022 at 10:47am Appears that "CASH" will be the order of the day for a while. Panic is setting in and many investors and traders are heading for the doors. Mutual funds selling usually "follow" each others (cumulative) and their selling has a "direct effect" on the overall market. Add to this that many investors are making major portfolio changes and the "outcome" for all of this is quite unknown at this time (analysts have many different opinions)....
Also, some securities have announced "BUY BACK" programs (at their discretion to enhance shareholder value) so with the current environment many buyback programs will be activated by the better securities. The challenge for us is that we would like to take advantage of this also (if our analysis follows that the investment is timed well)....
In addition, some RO's (rights offerings) have just been completed (or near completion) and some of these RO's look very promising for when the market again turns positive. Monitoring the RO final closure price against the current MktPrc (and following the insiders) could give us a very good buy signal....
Add to this, that some securities are currently reporting increases to their NAV's and book values. Why should we all rush, sell all shares at the selling door??
Bottom Line: Careful analysis of what we buy and when we sell remains a very important consideration. Following the crowd to the exits without some advance thinking by us can be very dangerous to our financial health....
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COMMENT: Looking at my current data, many Market Prices are now in decline. However, always however's, only 7% of the market is shown to be lower than the 6/14 crash data and thus there is still time to make decisions based on individual analysis results. My current portfolio was 36% up in market prices (NAV's all down) with my Watch list at 20% (NAV's all down). Data doesn't look promising for the short term.... Some income oriented investors have already taken their CapGains and are now sitting on some heavier cash positions that we really don't want to have.... BOTTOM LINE: Cash is king currently (Percentage wise)....
Good luck to all.....
One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Aug 29, 2022 13:11:57 GMT
x-
Reflecting on yr post:
With a new tax on buy-backs, starting Jan 1, 2023, might we not see a big buy-back surge to beat the onset of the new tax date and then a fall-off in activity? I'm thinking a theoretical Thanksgiving rally in DIVB followed by a Xmas swoon.
Just idle thoughts.
In the brass tacks dept, my current biggest position is now in LND. I understand European fertilizer plants are struggling to continue production with the energy squeeze. Should only serve to drive food prices higher.
Add to that we are exactly one sunken Ukrainian grain ship away from a true agro price panic. Putin doesn't even have to sink a ship; just stop and board one to "inspect" for war contraband. Hold it for a couple of days. Bring those contemptible NATO Euros to heel as bread soars and the Third World howls.
Like Idi Amin, al-Gaddafi and The Joker discovered, once you become a true pariah, it opens up new worlds of freedom to act out. You can only seize my super-yacht once.
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Post by xray on Sept 2, 2022 19:15:58 GMT
richardsok, Your: x- Reflecting on yr post: With a new tax on buy-backs, starting Jan 1, 2023, might we not see a big buy-back surge to beat the onset of the new tax date and then a fall-off in activity? I'm thinking a theoretical Thanksgiving rally in DIVB followed by a Xmas swoon. In the brass tacks dept, my current biggest position is now in LND. I understand European fertilizer plants are struggling to continue production with the energy squeeze. Should only serve to drive food prices higher. ---------- The 4th Qtr has usually been with "QUICK" rallies followed by disappointments. With that said.... My concern is that this is no longer a typical market anyone can predict with any certainty. Rallies off the lows have happened when least expected. The "TRADERS" are in 7th heaven as I follow the market each day. This past week, for example, with the ups and downs, the market will finish lower and not any bullish (DATA) sign for November. Some of us are currently out of the market (90% - sitting on the sidelines) and waiting for some better " OPTIONS" activity (including waiting for some extensive insider buying activity) and oil to again rise above 95+.... LND looks interesting (don't follow it and not on my watch list yet) but my current computer data doesn't currently like it. Your rationale for owning it is very valid and should be watched for any sudden moves. I ran it and found that LND finished the last Qtr of 2021 with a MktPrc range of 4.26 to 6.17 (very volatile). Currently, last 3 month period, the MktPrc range has been in the range of 4.11 to 5.76. Basically no real movement yet and is lower than we would expect to put it on our watch list. I realize you go in early in capturing the maximum CapGain and dividend, but my current analysis data doesn't yet support a current buy (single opinion of course).... ---------- Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Sept 18, 2022 18:46:20 GMT
STOCK MARKET TODAY Dow Jones Futures Look To Fed Meeting But This Reality Has Set In; Five Stocks Holding Up ED CARSON01:52 PM ET 09/18/2022 Dow Jones futures will open on Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with the Federal Reserve meeting in focus. The stock market suffered damaging losses in the past week on a surprisingly hot CPI inflation report as well as some grim earnings reports or warnings. The major indexes gapped below their 50-day moving averages and undercut some further key levels on Friday. Many leading stocks also struggled. It's a time for investors to have minimal exposure, at most. Build up watchlists with stocks boasting strong relative strength and holding key levels. Tesla (TSLA), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Celsius Holdings (CELH), Wolfspeed (WOLF) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) all qualify. Of course, Tesla stock, Enphase, etc. look robust now, but they may not in the coming days. Plenty of stocks looked strong until last Tuesday. Others looked solid until Thursday or Friday.
Fed Meeting
The Fed meeting is on Sept. 20-21. In the wake of Tuesday's consumer price index, which showed strength everywhere outside gasoline, markets reinforced expectations of a third straight Fed rate hike of 75 basis points. (There is a slim chance of a monster 100-basis-point move.) Investors will be focused about what Fed policy hints for the future. Fed quarterly projections will signal where policymakers see the fed funds rate further out. Right now, the market is leaning toward yet another 75-basis-point rate hike in November, followed by 25 or 50 basis points in December. That would push the fed funds target rate to either 4%-4.25% or 4.25%-4.5%, vs. expectations of 3.75%-4% before the CPI report. Fed chief Jerome Powell will give his post-meeting comments at 2:30 p.m. ET. Powell made it crystal clear in his Aug. 26 Jackson Hole speech that the Federal Reserve would not repeat its mistakes of the 1970s by easing policy too quickly.
Dow Jones Futures Today Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures. China's Chengdu said its Covid lockdown will end in an "orderly manner," with public transportation and normal work resuming Monday, but still with significant restrictions. The southwestern city of more than 21 million people shut down on Sept. 1, adding to China's economic woes. Chengudu's could boost optimism about the Chinese economy, but the "zero-Covid" policy means serious restrictions are a constant threat anywhere in the country. Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Stock Market Last Week
The stock market suffered sharp losses in the past week, reversing hard after solid gains on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4.1% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index sank 4.8%. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 5.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gave up 4.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield ran up 13 basis points to 3.45%, the seventh straight weekly gain. At one point Friday, the 10-year yield hit 3.483%, exactly matching the 11-year high set on June 14. U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.9% to $85.11 a barrel last week, third straight weekly decline. Natural gas prices sank 2.7%, but after a wild week of gains and losses.
ETFs
Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) skidded 5% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) gave up 4.2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) plunged 8.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gave up 6%. SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) dived 10.3% last week. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) 7.5%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) slid 5%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) tumbled 6.9%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gave up 2.7% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) lost 3.9%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) declined 2.3% Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 4.5% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 5.3%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest's ETFs.
Five Best Chinese Stocks To Watch Now
ENPH Stock
Enphase stock rose 4% this past week to 318.01, continuing to find support at a rising 21-day line. A pullback to the 21-day, perhaps pausing for the 50-day line to catch up, might offer a safer buying opportunity. A number of solar plays still look strong.
Celsius Stock
CELH stock fell 4.9% to 100.70 last week, but found support at the 10-week moving average A move above Thursday's high of 108.37 could offer an aggressive entry. In a few weeks, Celsius stock could have a new base with a 118.29 buy point.
WOLF Stock
EV-focused chipmaker Wolfspeed rallied 5.25% to 120.21 last week, including Friday's 2.8% gain. Investors could treat 123.35 as a buy point for WOLF stock from a handle in a longer consolidation.
VRTX Stock
Vertex stock fell 0.9% last week to 289.42, but rose 0.8% on Friday to push above the 21-day, 50-day and 10-week lines. A move above the Sept. 12 high of 296.14 would offer an early entry. It's possible VRTX stock will have a flat base in a few days, with a 306.05 buy point.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock rose 1.2% to 303.35 this past week, after soaring 10.9% in the prior week. Shares of the EV giant held support at the 200-day moving average. The relative strength line for TSLA stock has improved considerably. over the past two weeks, hitting a five-month high. The RS line, the blue line in the chart provided, tracks a stock's performance vs. the S&P 500 index. Investors could use a move above Thursday's high of 309.12 as an aggressive entry, or the short-term high of 314.64. That would still be a long way from a traditional buy point. For all of these stocks, the weak market conditions raise the risks of any purchases now. Tesla Vs. BYD: Which EV Giant Is The Better Buy?
Stock Market Analysis
The stock market started the past week with a strong gain on Monday, which now seems a long time ago. The major indexes plunged through their 50-day moving averages on Tuesday. On Friday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed below their Sept. lows and late July lows, even if they did come off intraday lows. The major indexes have now retraced more than half their gains from the mid-June to mid-August advance. Yes, some leading stocks held up, but for every Tesla, Vertex or Celsius, there were several quality names that suffered damaging losses Tuesday's CPI report didn't just cause serious technical damage to the market, it undermined the broader bull case. Investors had been betting that a tame inflation report would spur the Fed to start slowing rate hikes, at least after September. Those hopes have been pushed back. It's the second time that markets have been too rosy about Fed policy. The summer rally was spurred in no small part by investors expecting the Fed to soon end rate hikes — and then start cutting sometime in 2023. Powell's Jackson Hole speech ended talk of a "Fed pivot" to rate cutting. It's possible that the actual Fed meeting Wednesday will not be a big market mover, given how much investors have adjusted in the past three weeks. Rates are going to go high, and stay there for an extended period. The Fed is willing to have the U.S. fall into recession in order to wring out inflation. Outside of falling jobless claims, which only reinforced Fed concerns, recent economic data has been disappointing. A high-inflation, high-wage, low-growth environment is a huge challenge for any company. The disastrous FedEx (FDX) earnings and commentary, mixed results from Adobe (ADBE) and warnings from Nucor (NUE) and U.S. Steel (X) reflect that companies face an extended period of uneven or weak results. The multinationals and exporters that dominate the S&P 500 may be especially exposed, given the strong dollar along with weakness in Europe and China.
What To Do Now
The stock market is not in good shape. Macroeconomic conditions are poor. Investors have to consider that the market could undercut June's lows or be rangebound for weeks or even months until there's real clarity on the endgame for Fed rate hikes. Investors' exposure should be minimal. There's nothing wrong with being 100% cash, especially if recent trades have gone against you. Focus on building your watchlists, paying attention to stocks showing resilience. If the market remains weak, some of these names will falter, while others will crop up. The key is to have an up-to-date list when market conditions do improve, and you're ready to take advantage.
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Comment: Some of us remain in 90% "CASH". March & September remain normal repeating "DOWN" markets and most investors and traders have been moving to cash since 9/1. October will be a good time to start observing the markets again....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 18, 2022 20:26:28 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2022 23:06:37 GMT
I find this thread fascinating along with UH's implied resistance levels. I am interested in what y'all think can take the market to those levels and why the bear case would will out. I think the jury is still out what the Fed funds rate will settle out and this last week was a "bad" news week and the one before "good". I am not certain I think macroeconomic conditions are poor - labor being case in point. Maybe not great, but not poor. To be poor - I would think we would be seeing persistent contraction and falling employment by a significant amount. I would not yet extrapolate FDX's situation to the economy at large. They have a new CEO, are undergoing a reorg and cost cutting program. How much of their pulling back on guidance just 3 months old is attributable to macro factors and not themselves could well be overstated. I think it is correct that one should consider the lows being taken out, but see the opposite just as likely. In case you did not see - bull/bear case lately proponents - markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-divided-direction-fed-interest-rates-2022-9I certainly see there will be opportunities to deploy cash in either case.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 19, 2022 0:30:43 GMT
I like to follow trends until a trend shows some signs it is changing. The S&P 500 has declined in the past 4 of 5 weeks. That means to me that the trend is down. Labor is strong for reasons an economist would have to explain. I believe the strong labor market is due to demographics, whacko immigration policies, and a wave of early retirements due to covid and the maturing baby boom. The Transport index is trending down, with or without FDX. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p69817424278&a=414172833&listNum=86Your link is a great example of why I do my own work and frequently diverge from the entertainers. You are absolutely correct when you say there will be opportunities to deploy cash in either case.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2022 0:42:14 GMT
I like to follow trends until a trend shows some signs it is changing. The S&P 500 has declined in the past 4 of 5 weeks. That means to me that the trend is down. Labor is strong for reasons an economist would have to explain. I believe the strong labor market is due to demographics, whacko immigration policies, and a wave of early retirements due to covid and the maturing baby boom. The Transport index is trending down, with or without FDX. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p69817424278&a=414172833&listNum=86Your link is a great example of why I do my own work and frequently diverge from the entertainers. You are absolutely correct when you say there will be opportunities to deploy cash in either case. UH - I just watched a pretty interesting video that from a technical standpoint - looking at higher lows, higher highs I guess makes the case for some larger rally over the next 30 days. I don't follow technicals so defer to y'all on that. This is not an unintelligent person - see the investor channel on youtube. I don't think of these folks (the article I posted) who have made life long careers doing what they do as entertainers, so therein we differ. I do think they show what I see on this site and elsewhere - a lot of different opinions. Thank you for explaining your thoughts. X-ray - do you think the macro situation so poor it will go to the levels of resistance UH has? I am in it for the long run - so it is more academic for me. I certainly have my watchlist and buy points and continue to buy as they hit. For me, I am looking to add a bit to MSFT at 210 and to GOOG if it falls to 89. If the S&P 500 falls to 2900, I will add a lot.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2022 4:25:30 GMT
SP500 at 2900. That is 25% down from here. Curious if people see high probability of it, wouldn't it make sense to move big chunk to cash, reduce market exposure?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2022 10:21:12 GMT
Waffle - personally I would evaluate if you need that money or have it invested in something you consider outside your risk tolerance. If you have some capital gains to take - might not be a bad idea. That is a really personal decision based on a lot of factors. Most important I think is to have a long term plan based on sound fundamentals and execute on it. Whatever done, don't do it because of charts and scary headlines. If based on charts and fundamentals - well I would look at it a little harder.
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 19, 2022 12:05:38 GMT
SP500 at 2900. That is 25% down from here. Curious if people see high probability of it, wouldn't it make sense to move big chunk to cash, reduce market exposure? A lot of 'ifs' in there. You COULD also shift to less volatile assets rather than exiting entirely; then ramp up when you think the worst has passed. LCV has held up much better than LCG, for example. That splits the difference between doing nothing and selling a chunk. I personally think that we're past the selling stage; should have been earlier if one was going to do it.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 19, 2022 13:55:19 GMT
SP500 at 2900. That is 25% down from here. Curious if people see high probability of it, wouldn't it make sense to move big chunk to cash, reduce market exposure? FWIW: I am on hold until I see what happens at the June lows of 3600. That will probably be after the fed meeting.
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