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Post by xray on Aug 17, 2021 14:00:17 GMT
Market is currently "Beyond Reasonable Risk" for investors [IMHO]. Appears still good for traders. Plan A did very well for us during the last severe market decline. With that said....
Some of us are starting a slow withdrawal from the market with the understanding that we will encounter some small losses in some of the securities that will occur in the process....
Risk [Rf] numb3rs have been falling on a regular basis [wk-to-wk] and it appears that "traders" are pulling their money out of the market [in a very slow manner (and not re-investing)], so as not to make it noticeable....
Recommendation to any concerned "investors": Try to "REDUCE" number of shares to no more than a phase #2 position [2%-4%] in any one security....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 18, 2021 14:43:41 GMT
Phase #1 was completed yesterday in our current market withdrawal [with regard to "RISK assessments & PHASE #2 share allocations"]. The selling of some shares in our portfolio [CapGain/CapLoss] "reduced" our current yearly ROI from 44.63% to 42.08%. Cash Position is now at the required 40%. With that said....
1... Dependent on Market conditions, some of us may go to phase #2 in our market withdrawals [40%-60% cash] by remaining proactive [to market evaluations]....
2... We will continue to invest if/when a good opportunity presents itself, [still maintaining our current "phase #1" 40% cash requirement] with the further selling of securities of our current portfolio's [to continue to meet the 40% minimum requirement]....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by steelpony10 on Aug 18, 2021 15:28:28 GMT
Market is currently " Beyond Reasonable Risk" for investors [IMHO]. Appears still good for traders. Plan A did very well for us during the last severe market decline. With that said....
Some of us are starting a slow withdrawal from the market with the understanding that we will encounter some small losses in some of the securities that will occur in the process....
Risk [Rf] numb3rs have been falling on a regular basis [wk-to-wk] and it appears that "traders" are pulling their money out of the market [in a very slow manner (and not re-investing)], so as not to make it noticeable....
Recommendation to any concerned "investors": Try to "REDUCE" number of shares to no more than a phase #2 position [2%-4%] in any one security....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper.... After reading that first sentence this seems like a smoke screen for market timing. What’s wrong with waiting to see what actually happens and then make adjustments if needed? There’s nothing wrong with adding cash then, starting new positions or switching losers for worse losers. Volatility is an investment fact whose pattern remains an unknown and will never be an exact science. But working with actual facts makes it more like science rather then reading a crystal ball. So as you say just another opinion. |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 18, 2021 15:41:04 GMT
I realize I am a trader of the worst ability. I can only see opportunity in down markets. I can hardly wait to deploy some short term money into equities. While I lament losing opportunity when watching rising markets I feel pain when being whipsawed. I salute those that are good timers.
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Post by xray on Aug 18, 2021 16:40:59 GMT
steelpony10, Your: After reading that first sentence this seems like a smoke screen for market timing. What’s wrong with waiting to see what actually happens and then make adjustments if needed? There’s nothing wrong with adding cash then, starting new positions or switching losers for worse losers. Volatility is an investment fact whose pattern remains an unknown and will never be an exact science. But working with actual facts makes it more like science rather than reading a crystal ball. ---------- 1... Market timing: No one can time the market or think that they can. What we should be "relying on" is our individual analysis data [lessons learned in "both" up/down markets]. Getting " some" timing right is usually tied to how long we all have been in the market. The 2008/2009 [not mentioning 1987] crash made us all go back to the drawing board and "recalculate" our analysis methodology for how [somehow] we might predict the probability of the market. Most of us, I hope, have changed our excel worksheets to better understand the market since it is always changing.... 2... What's wrong with waiting to see what actually happens: 2008/2009 is what is wrong. " MANY" investors got crushed and have " NEVER" come back into the market [like the 1987 fiasco]. From your perspective, some investors have more money to burn [and lose] than most of us currently in the market. The decision of waiting may make the difference of re-investing some money back into the market [like 2009] at "BARGAIN" prices and leaving the market forever.... 3... Switching losers for worse losers: If a investor is doing this as you suggest, they should not be in the market. The market is not a gambling casino [as some traders may suggest] but a "investment think tank", where some of the best individual analysts share their opinions and information [mainly to other investors]. There is a saying that a fool and his/her money can be parted with it [easily unfortunately].... 4... Volatility is an investment fact whose pattern remains an unknown and will never be an exact science: Traders have a field day with volatility and make their money accordingly [in on Monday, out by Friday]. It can never be any type of science when traders are part of the equation.... 5... Working with actual facts makes it more like science rather than reading a crystal ball: Crystal ball is when you lose money and many of us haven't and why we are still in the market. We do get nervous at times and are not afraid to change our excel worksheets [excel worksheets make our science for us]. We never trade but buy on our individual analysis. To date this year, we have "sold-out" 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 in the 2nd Qtr and "0" so far in the 3rd Qtr. I am sure some investors have done better than some of us but some of us work to " strict" analysis and our excel worksheets.... 6... Your ID "steelponey": indicates to me that you are made of steel and will ride any "sine wave" of a changing market [no offense intended]. My ID indicates that I like to "X-ray" a security for either a buy/sell situation.... One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 18, 2021 16:44:50 GMT
xray , Who are you referring to when you say we or us? I'm just curious.
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Post by xray on Aug 18, 2021 17:00:43 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 18, 2021 17:58:54 GMT
Thanks for the explanation.
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Post by steelpony10 on Aug 18, 2021 18:40:52 GMT
steelpony10 , Your: After reading that first sentence this seems like a smoke screen for market timing. What’s wrong with waiting to see what actually happens and then make adjustments if needed? There’s nothing wrong with adding cash then, starting new positions or switching losers for worse losers. Volatility is an investment fact whose pattern remains an unknown and will never be an exact science. But working with actual facts makes it more like science rather than reading a crystal ball. ---------- 1... Market timing: No one can time the market or think that they can. What we should be "relying on" is our individual analysis data [lessons learned in "both" up/down markets]. Getting " some" timing right is usually tied to how long we all have been in the market. The 2008/2009 [not mentioning 1987] crash made us all go back to the drawing board and "recalculate" our analysis methodology for how [somehow] we might predict the probability of the market. Most of us, I hope, have changed our excel worksheets to better understand the market since it is always changing.... 2... What's wrong with waiting to see what actually happens: 2008/2009 is what is wrong. " MANY" investors got crushed and have " NEVER" come back into the market [like the 1987 fiasco]. From your perspective, some investors have more money to burn [and lose] than most of us currently in the market. The decision of waiting may make the difference of re-investing some money back into the market [like 2009] at "BARGAIN" prices and leaving the market forever.... 3... Switching losers for worse losers: If a investor is doing this as you suggest, they should not be in the market. The market is not a gambling casino [as some traders may suggest] but a "investment think tank", where some of the best individual analysts share their opinions and information [mainly to other investors]. There is a saying that a fool and his/her money can be parted with it [easily unfortunately].... 4... Volatility is an investment fact whose pattern remains an unknown and will never be an exact science: Traders have a field day with volatility and make their money accordingly [in on Monday, out by Friday]. It can never be any type of science when traders are part of the equation.... 5... Working with actual facts makes it more like science rather than reading a crystal ball: Crystal ball is when you lose money and many of us haven't and why we are still in the market. We do get nervous at times and are not afraid to change our excel worksheets [excel worksheets make our science for us]. We never trade but buy on our individual analysis. To date this year, we have "sold-out" 8 securities in the 1st Qtr, 11 in the 2nd Qtr and "0" so far in the 3rd Qtr. I am sure some investors have done better than some of us but some of us work to " strict" analysis and our excel worksheets.... 6... Your ID "steelponey": indicates to me that you are made of steel and will ride any "sine wave" of a changing market [no offense intended]. My ID indicates that I like to "X-ray" a security for either a buy/sell situation.... One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper.... I agree with the first sentence in #1. The problem is pointed out by you after that, “individual data”. As far as #2 and #3 I only care about me not amateurs who never should of invested in the first place. I exchanged dividend stocks down somewhat after 25 years during the bank crisis for CEF’s down 20-40% tripling my income cash flow. I took about 20 years of INTC gains and principle and invested in AMZN during that time worth about 30? times more now. All based on the current facts, what I saw and had planed if I ever had the chance. Science is based on repeatable outcomes based on the same facts. I think that is a reapeatible technique based on my 30 years of experience at that point. 4. Amateur traders make relatively few dollars and lose few dollars and you don’t think that resembles gambling? So are we talking you make an investment wait until it goes up and pocket $500? Wait because it might go up more? Have it drop 50% because of some inflation report creating dead money? Someone can crystal ball that? I think I had more success with volatility then amateur traders, buying, selling and whying. So yes I look at volatility as my friend but only after the dust settles and I can pick through the rubble because I can only see the results (facts)/then. 5. We all get nervous. When I do I walk away from the action. Crystal balls can be lucky also so can a dart I’m told. My eyes still see fairly well and I can read American English. That’s all the info I need. Short term is forever unpredictable, a fact sorry. 6. I’m pretty sure we’re made of the same stuff just arranged differently. All I can say is if I turned every financial decision into brain surgery trying to read the future based on the past instead of hard facts and a clear cut plan no way would I be where I am. I’m pretty sure professionals with vast research departments work similarly. So I’ll ask a question in brief and clear American English did you correctly anticipate 2020? |
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Post by xray on Aug 19, 2021 15:08:40 GMT
Most of us have not only participated in 2020 but since well before 1970. With that said....
Lets agree to disagree and leave it at that. Different strokes for different folks....
Live long and Prosper....
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Post by steelpony10 on Aug 19, 2021 16:33:20 GMT
Most of us have not only participated in 2020 but since well before 1970. With that said.... Lets agree to disagree and leave it at that. Different strokes for different folks.... Live long and Prosper.... That really didn’t answer the question. Truce or I’ll end up back in sensitivity training, the reason I retired early. Lol. ✌️ |
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Post by richardsok on Aug 19, 2021 18:45:32 GMT
xray, Are you selling down in any particular order or sector, or generally across the board?
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Post by xray on Aug 19, 2021 21:37:32 GMT
steelpony10, Your: That really didn’t answer the question. Truce or I’ll end up back in sensitivity training, the reason I retired early. Lol. ✌️ ---------- 2020 was a very good year [up +46.8%].... You should have asked about 2018 where the bottom fall out of the market in the 4th Qtr. Some of us lost -14% but that was acceptable as 2017 was a very good year at +61.7%.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 19, 2021 22:09:55 GMT
richardsok, Your: Are you selling down in any particular order or sector, or generally across the board? ---------- I follow my computers trends for what the market is doing vs what my "portfolio" and "Watch List" is doing. As you are aware, I [normally] use 2% increments in both buying/selling up to 10%. I was taught, way back in my very old college days, to hold a minimum of 16 securities in our portfolio's with equal 6% increments for control of our "RISK" and our exuberant enthusiasm [in both buying & selling]. Some of us have matured since then [with the hard lessons learned] to change that requirement to our individual understanding of the market [over time] and what it is currently doing....
Currently, I cut back all of my security holdings [that were >6%]:
1... to a "Phase "2" [4%-6% maximum] holding [regardless of the sector]
2... to a "Phase "1" [1%-4% maximum] holding for any Report card grade of <70
3... USDP [penny stock] was the only exception to my rules [currently 8%] because of my stubbornness in believing that the trucks delivering goods to the market currently has a extreme shortage of truck drivers and the rails are the only other feasible means of delivering goods [at a reasonable price] to the market. USDP is really oil but they could convert their oil railcars to container cars. Who really knows. Add to this, this article today that made the USDP MktPrc rise [+$0.06] today [same as the Friday's closing price]:
USD Partners to Participate in Citi One-on-One Midstream / Energy Infrastructure Virtual Conference on August 19th and Issues Updated Investor Presentation
Wed, August 18, 2021, 4:18 PM
USDP
+0.95%
HOUSTON, August 18, 2021--(BUSINESS WIRE)--USD Partners LP (NYSE:USDP) (the "Partnership") announced today that members of its senior management team will participate in the Citi One-on-One Midstream / Energy Infrastructure Virtual Conference on Thursday, August 19, 2021.
The related presentation materials will be made available on the Partnership’s website no later than 5:00pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, August 18, 2021, at www.usdpartners.com on the "Events & Presentations" sub-tab under the "Investors" tab. About USD Partners LP USD Partners LP is a fee-based, growth-oriented master limited partnership formed in 2014 by US Development Group, LLC ("USD") to acquire, develop and operate midstream infrastructure and complementary logistics solutions for crude oil, biofuels and other energy-related products. The Partnership generates substantially all of its operating cash flows from multi-year, take-or-pay contracts with primarily investment grade customers, including major integrated oil companies and refiners. The Partnership’s principal assets include a network of crude oil terminals that facilitate the transportation of heavy crude oil from Western Canada to key demand centers across North America. The Partnership’s operations include railcar loading and unloading, storage and blending in on-site tanks, inbound and outbound pipeline connectivity, truck transloading, as well as other related logistics services. In addition, the Partnership provides customers with leased railcars and fleet services to facilitate the transportation of liquid hydrocarbons and biofuels by rail. USD, which owns the general partner of USD Partners LP, is engaged in designing, developing, owning, and managing large-scale multi-modal logistics centers and energy-related infrastructure across North America. USD solutions create flexible market access for customers in significant growth areas and key demand centers, including Western Canada, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico. Among other projects, USD, along with its partner Gibson Energy, Inc., is pursuing long-term solutions to transport heavier grades of crude oil produced in Western Canada through the construction of a Diluent Recovery Unit at the Hardisty Terminal. USD is also currently pursuing the development of a premier energy logistics terminal on the Houston Ship Channel with capacity for substantial tank storage, multiple docks (including barge and deepwater), inbound and outbound pipeline connectivity, as well as a rail terminal with unit train capabilities. ---------- Hope this helps a little.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by johntaylor on Aug 20, 2021 15:58:15 GMT
With the market level plus pandemic and Afghanistan, concern makes sense, but I'll continue dollar-cost averaging in.
Heard Bernard Fall lecture on his classic book, Street Without Joy. If heeded, the lessons could have saved lives in Vietnam and Afghanistan, even though Fall died on the Rue sans Joie.
However, in 1968 the Durants said (The Lessons of History) “In the last 3,421 years of recorded history only 268 have seen no war" so perhaps the current chaos is the old and new normality?
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Post by xray on Aug 20, 2021 16:30:13 GMT
johntaylor, Agree with you. Dollar cost averaging is always the best strategy when we have some cash [from CapGains] available [like most of us do].... Some of us just found out that insiders have bought two of our current portfolio holdings and we are in the process in adding a few additional shares for dollar cost averaging and increasing our portfolio dividends.... Interesting market day. Expected a little plus day today to offset some of the weeks losses. My current data still shows a decline in the market going forward.... Appears, currently in trying to get the last people out of Afghanistan, we didn't learn anything when we were trying to get out of Korea.... Have a "GREAT" weekend.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by bb2 on Aug 20, 2021 18:44:46 GMT
Well, margin debt is dropping www.yardeni.com/pub/stmkteqmardebt.pdfDoesn't hurt to have cash for the next Minsky, even if you're young. (Don't give all your money to Wall Street making a %.) As a near senior, I have plenty of cash right now. Thinking of past bubbles, this doesn't feel like one. They're obvious but the effects and how to capitalize are not. 3 things: debt, asset prices and regulators. First two are a bit high and the regs are powerful, though they do seem to only be able to play whack-a-mole. I'm most worried about drought or something like that at this point, though it could come from finance. |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 20, 2021 20:51:41 GMT
The weekly and daily charts for the S&P 500 indicate an ongoing bull market in domestic stocks although the indexes are losing momentum. The loss of momentum indicates to me that we will have a near term period of consolidation. My thought is that the recent Taper Talk is putting a late summer damper on some of the enthusiasm for now. I remain a subscriber to the idea that QE forever will continue to support asset prices.
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Post by xray on Aug 21, 2021 22:16:46 GMT
Working on my data report for this past week. Numb3rs still going negative. Two securities looked very promising and am analyzing them currently. Added additional shares to two insider buy's on Friday that I talked about on Friday. Report Card Grades continue to drop. Not a good sign to my thinking for this coming week....
Live Long and Prosper....
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
Posts: 221
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Post by galeno on Aug 22, 2021 15:18:19 GMT
Our 50/50 port is up 7.1% NOMINAL. 1.7% REAL.
Thanks to our equities.In spite of 5.4% USD inflation.
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Post by xray on Aug 22, 2021 19:50:42 GMT
Had to make a difficult decision [buy or hold for lower MktPrc's]. While my analysis data continues to show a down market, I observed some very good buying opportunities for dollar cost averaging some of my current low dividends for some of the securities in my current portfolio [that should not have followed the market down]....
I therefore bit the bullet and am "adding shares" to several securities tomorrow. I am only "adding shares" to my current 10 star performing securities [with good Report Card grades]. Unfortunately for me, two of my add-on's will be currently above my normal risk level [>6%/per max]. When our dollar cost averaging lowers the current "average MktBuyPrc paid, the dividend increases]....
My cash, with the buying activity, was reduced to 25% going forward....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Aug 31, 2021 14:54:07 GMT
Reference MY: My cash, with the buying activity, was reduced to 25% going forward....
Added to two securities yesterday [not CEF's] which reduced my current cash position to 18% going forward....
Looking at my current analysis data, the market is headed higher....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by win1177 on Sept 1, 2021 16:55:41 GMT
X-ray,
I’m a little confused by your comments. What is your current asset allocation? You mentioned cash is down to 18%, that’s still a fairly high percentage. Equity? Bonds? A few weeks ago you appeared to be preparing to “lighten up” on equities, due to seeing signs the market was prime for a correction/ sell off. Now, seems you’re adding equity.
I too am bothered by a relatively high market, based on numerous valuation methods. But, in view of extremely low rates, there really are very few other “options”, so the markets remain high and slowly climbing. I’m just confused with what you’re doing.
Me, I’m staying invested in my current holdings, except have a limit sell for AT&T. Have a few “low ball” orders to add to various stocks- MRK, VZ, PFE, UL, CL, stocks I already own. Have about 84% equity, 6% bonds, 10% cash. Slowly adding to bond positions mainly as “safe” holdings. Hope to eventually get to about 10% fixed income.
Win
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Post by xray on Sept 4, 2021 16:45:39 GMT
win1177, Sorry I missed your posting. With that said.... I’m a little confused by your comments. 1... What is your current asset allocation? 2... You mentioned cash is down to 18%, that’s still a fairly high percentage. Equity? Bonds? 3... A few weeks ago you appeared to be preparing to “lighten up” on equities, due to seeing signs the market was prime for a correction/ sell off. Now, seems you’re adding equity. 4... I too am bothered by a relatively high market, based on numerous valuation methods. But, in view of extremely low rates, there really are very few other “options”, so the markets remain high and slowly climbing. I’m just confused with what you’re doing. 5... Me, I’m staying invested in my current holdings, except have a limit sell for AT&T. Have a few “low ball” orders to add to various stocks- MRK, VZ, PFE, UL, CL, stocks I already own. Have about 84% equity, 6% bonds, 10% cash. Slowly adding to bond positions mainly as “safe” holdings. 6... Hope to eventually get to about 10% fixed income. ---------- 1... I have never use asset allocations. I only use what my computer systems are telling me. Some of us buy/sell "whatever" accordingly.... 2... Some of us have just returned to a "20%" cash position. Many of us believe that the market is too high and will probably suffer a major decline at some point. We tie the cash position to what the market could lose [percentage wise "at the most"]. 15%-20% decline could be coming our way. We could use the 10%-20% cash to buy the securities that are excessively undervalued by panic investors fleeing the market.... 3... I use computers to visualize my analysis data [single opinion] vs where the investors appear to be fleeing or buying current securities. I use computers to watch turnarounds either from high's going lower, or lowers going higher. I buy/sell securities, with the good numb3rs, accordingly and will change with the market.... 4... Some of us take what the market gives us [won't fight the market]. Sectors always fluctuate beyond the norm and we can take advantage of this. We cannot hold a security forever or we lose money [GAB is a very good example of this IMHO where we all made some very good money with all of their $7 Rights Offerings [over a lot of years] and us unloading the RO shares @ $10. If you notice GAB is "still trying" to get back to "7" since the 2008/2009 crash. We use to love GAB (that gave us free shares to build on with their spinoffs of GUT, and GGT with their 10% distributions). Gut became too expensive and we unloaded it for CapGains. GGT, we have been in/out over the years].... 5... A lot of us maintain "CORE HOLDINGS" but not afraid to sell when we have to. Currently, we sold-out 8 securities for CapGain in the 1st Qtr, 11 securities for CapGain in the 2nd Qtr, 0 so far for the 3rd Qtr. "Sold-out" refers to selling a security in our portfolio's and removing it "permanately" from any further consideration going forward.... 6... Many of feel us that we will lose a minimum of 2% in a down market from what we are currently receiving. If/when you reach your 10%, that would usually turn to 8% during a declining market. The problem with declining markets, is when "distributions" [not dividends] are tied to "NAV's" and the 2% can go to 4% because distributions are "automatically" adjusted "downward" each and every Month/Quarter going forward. Dividends don't normally get cut regularly since it takes a "announcement" each and every time and CEF Managers don't want their MktPrc's going lower quicker than they would normally go. Some of us currently have a 9.44% portfolio which would mean that we would normally "expect" 7.44% in a declining market.... Have a "GREAT LONG" weekend....
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Post by win1177 on Sept 9, 2021 12:50:46 GMT
Thanks for explaining your thoughts XRay! Makes more sense now.
Like you, I have a higher percentage in cash than normal, currently very high at ~11%. When you look at the size of our portfolio, that is close to a million in cash! We’re still “heavy” in equity, about 83-84%, but those are long term “holds”, most of which have huge unrealized capital gains, with growing dividends. So not going to sell them unless a material change in the underlying businesses. Have about 5% in bonds, hoping to add to that if/ when rates rise a little. I see VERY little worth touching in the markets right now, the market overall looks very “rich”. If we have a 10-20% correction, I will add, but just building cash right now.
Win
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Post by xray on Sept 11, 2021 16:17:41 GMT
Reference: My 9/4 post:
2... Some of us have just returned to a "20%" cash position. Many of us believe that the market is too high and will probably suffer a major decline at some point. We tie the cash position to what the market could lose [percentage wise "at the most"]. 15%-20% decline could be coming our way. We could use the 10%-20% cash to buy the securities that are excessively undervalued by panic investors fleeing the market....
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News Article:
Stocks could be due for a correction of up to 20% 'by fire or ice': Morgan Stanley strategist
Brian Cheung·Reporter
Fri, September 10, 2021, 2:59 PM
Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors should always be positioned for a market correction of 10%, but warned that investors may not be ready for a harsher correction that could be coming soon.
“You should always be expecting a 10% correction. If you’re investing in equities, you should be prepared for that at any time,” Wilson told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “A 20% correction, which is really more disruptive, where people might want to try and position for, the catalyst for that is going to be once again an ice scenario.”
Wilson’s “ice scenario” envisions a sharp reversal of the post-lockdown “overconsumption binge,” which could slow the stronger earnings and operating leverage seen in S&P 500 companies as of late.
“It would be natural that the mid-cycle transition ends up being worse than normal,” Wilson said.
Wilson added that historically, price-to-earnings ratios for the S&P 500 tend to fall by about 20% in a mid-cycle transition, pointing to 1994, 2004, and 2011 as examples. P/E ratios compare a company’s share price against its earnings per share, and have been elevated through the pandemic recovery.
In an August 30 note, Morgan Stanley Research noted that forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratios for the S&P 500 had already fallen by 5% so far this year. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research
Wilson says the correction may have already begun, with P/E ratios on the S&P 500 falling by about 5% so far this year. Characteristics of previous mid-cycle adjustments, such as the outperformance of large caps as autos and consumer discretionary lag, are already happening.
“We think it has simply been deferred as excess liquidity and retail and international inflows have kept the major U.S. indices elevated,” Morgan Stanley noted in research published Aug. 30.
The equity strategist said a further slowdown in P/E multiples could come “by fire or ice.” In the “fire” scenario, a booming economy with sustained inflation pushes the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and take steam out of the stock market.
The “ice” scenario is the overconsumption binge hypothesis, which Wilson said is the one his team is leaning towards.
“The bottom line for us...is the risk reward is not particularly great at the index level from here, no matter what the outcome is. That’s why we don’t have any upside to the S&P for the rest of the year,” Wilson said.
Wilson’s team recommended financials and consumer services as defensive plays to a possible correction.
Brian Cheung is a reporter covering the Fed, economics, and banking for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter @bcheungz.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Chahta on Sept 13, 2021 22:03:50 GMT
Reading this thread now, how did it get started in the CEF forum? Nothing has been discussed about CEFs here.
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Post by xray on Sept 14, 2021 22:07:30 GMT
Chahta, Your: Reading this thread now, how did it get started in the CEF forum? Nothing has been discussed about CEFs here. Many of us have been totally CEF investors form many many years now. Unfortunately for many of us [like Morning Star dropping their CEF main coverage late in the 1990's], CEF's are not in favor for being a investment and not many follow them [other than bond holders maybe]. Over the years we have expanded our portfolio's to include anything that we feel has value. We even expanded to "Penny Stocks" where some good money can be made with some additional risk.... Many investors scan their interest and this particular thread has little interest to the many who don't follow anything out of their personal interest [like CEF's]. I try to keep CEF investors updated [as much as possible] as well as others. I don't like to "double" or "triple" post any information as it will just antagonize the many and some of my postings could possibly wind up on the wrong thread.... Getting back to your statement, my key interest is in CEF's [for many years now] and my initial post on this thread was a warning to CEF investors and others [single opinion of course]. My current portfolio has 50% CEF's. Not many follow me or the CEF's.... Sorry for any confusion but there was no real other place to post the information to the "CEF investors" [and I didn't want to double post].... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Chahta on Sept 14, 2021 23:41:41 GMT
How does your port breakdown? 50% CEFs and 50% what else?. I recently got interested in purchasing CEFs via steelpony10 since he owns a bunch. |
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Post by xray on Sept 15, 2021 21:03:54 GMT
Chahta, Your: How does your port breakdown? 50% CEFs and 50% what else?. I recently got interested in purchasing CEFs via steelpony10 since he owns a bunch. ---------- "Using 80% as the guide [20% cash]" for total portfolio: 26.55% Penny Stock 10.47% NRZ [REIT] just came off Penny stock status ... reached 11.00 today [9.23% (on a raised dividend) COB Friday] 9.84% Oil 6.05% Future Long term growth 5.56% Emerging tech advances Have a "GREAT" week.... Live Long and Prosper....
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