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Post by anitya on Jul 22, 2021 20:22:52 GMT
A recent discussion about market timing made me think of this ETF. Do any forum members own this or are interested in this? What are your thoughts? www.paceretfs.com/products/altl/P.S.: I know about a few other market timing ETFs but I would like this thread to focus on ALTL and not digress too far, other than may be mention other ETFs. I shall open a separate thread for any other market timing ETF mentioned or you are welcome to open such separate threads too. Thanks. A |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2021 21:50:14 GMT
very interesting.
Majority (almost all) of returns came when it was in high beta strategy from Nov 2020 to April 2021.
It is currently in low volatility strategy => rather low returns if any.
Comparing to SPHB (Invesco S&P 500® High Beta ETF) it looks good. Switch between strategies happened at a good time.
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Post by Capital on Jul 22, 2021 22:19:34 GMT
anitya , personally when it comes to investing I am not very into gimicks. Things like this work until they don't work. My history of using gimicky strategies is not very good. I stick to the tried and true. JMHO Capital.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 23, 2021 1:05:31 GMT
anitya , Too early to tell. Average returns so far. There’re better out there. Market timing is a disproven investment method no matter how you dress it. Is that what you’re looking for?
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Post by anitya on Jul 23, 2021 9:36:59 GMT
I agree with Capital 's comment about gimmicky stuff but Every poster in this forum is a market timer of one shade or another - do not mean to offend anybody. So, I can not help ask myself, "why is it offensive if there is an ETF for what we are trying to do (but probably are not doing a good job of it)?" steelpony10 : "There’re better out there." Do you mind sharing some tickers for me to further explore and share with you my findings? As always, feel free to send me a private message if you are apprehensive of being trolled. (We (this forum) are the least trolled but I recognize we are not immune.) Lurkers, Note that a black swan event can take this ETF to the woodshed while an individual may be able to take an evasive action. Even if it has gone through a full market cycle, I would be apprehensive to treat this ETF (as with any high Beta or idiosyncratic bet) as a buy and forget investment. |
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Post by Norbert on Jul 23, 2021 11:04:14 GMT
Anitya,
You might want to check out ALTL's cousin FCTR.
While the former switches around between low vol and high beta stocks, FCTR switches around among various factors (momentum, quality, low vol, and value).
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 23, 2021 12:53:01 GMT
I agree with Capital 's comment about gimmicky stuff but Every poster in this forum is a market timer of one shade or another - do not mean to offend anybody. So, I can not help ask myself, "why is it offensive if there is an ETF for what we are trying to do (but probably are not doing a good job of it)?" steelpony10 : "There’re better out there." Do you mind sharing some tickers for me to further explore and share with you my findings? As always, feel free to send me a private message if you are apprehensive of being trolled. (We (this forum) are the least trolled but I recognize we are not immune.) Lurkers, Note that a black swan event can take this ETF to the woodshed while an individual may be able to take an evasive action. Even if it has gone through a full market cycle, I would be apprehensive to treat this ETF (as with any high Beta or idiosyncratic bet) as a buy and forget investment. Not knowing of any plan or risk tolerance etc. that looks like a value ETF. “HY” VYM comes to mind as an alternative.These types are out of favor at the moment. I’m an income investor basically finished investing. I chose the pieces of our plan by emulating the smart money and using their vast research resources. I never considered myself a market timer. That is a disproven investment method, a poor method, not offensive, a widely held fact. I just made choices of the available parts provided by someone else, investment professionals. Anyone can question my opinion and at times I get a fact wrong. This isn’t my hobby or interest, just a problem to solve. So troll away that’s what the block function is for. Equity income is more elusive, lucrative and risky, short term unknown, long term (15 years?) pretty steady because of inflation and increased earnings beyond that. That’s why I live on CEF income in retirement where my long term is questionable. |
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Post by Capital on Jul 23, 2021 13:00:23 GMT
I agree with Capital 's comment about gimmicky stuff but Every poster in this forum is a market timer of one shade or another - do not mean to offend anybody. So, I can not help ask myself, "why is it offensive if there is an ETF for what we are trying to do (but probably are not doing a good job of it)?" steelpony10 : "There’re better out there." Do you mind sharing some tickers for me to further explore and share with you my findings? As always, feel free to send me a private message if you are apprehensive of being trolled. (We (this forum) are the least trolled but I recognize we are not immune.) Lurkers, Note that a black swan event can take this ETF to the woodshed while an individual may be able to take an evasive action. Even if it has gone through a full market cycle, I would be apprehensive to treat this ETF (as with any high Beta or idiosyncratic bet) as a buy and forget investment. No offense taken not any offense meant by me. This is just not something I would have an interest in personally. If you or others do have such an interest I would have nothing negative to say about that either. I do greatly appreciate the comments you have made in your post. It's Friday and I hope for a nice day for all. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 23, 2021 18:03:44 GMT
Anitya, You might want to check out ALTL's cousin FCTR. While the former switches around between low vol and high beta stocks, FCTR switches around among various factors (momentum, quality, low vol, and value). Good one. During its existence it did not fall too far behind SPY but when Value factor started working it clearly outperformed the growth biased SPY. First Trust is usually an OK shop but am surprised by the tracking error. I would explore other shops' products using the same index to see if they do a better job of minimizing the tracking error. For example, I have PALC on my watch list, which appears to have lower tracking error but it has not been around as long as FCTR so can not say PALC is executing better for sure. Also, PALC AUM is under $100M, which for me is a threshold to potentially avoid future liquidations. So, FCTR it is for now. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 23, 2021 18:28:52 GMT
Capital , steelpony10 , When I think of Trolls, your names do not even come to mind. You guys are polite. My comment was not directed at you or anybody else in this thread. It was a general comment to assuage apprehensive minds. I am pretty sure we can get a lot of the constructive people that just view to post. As much as I like being in this forum for its decorum and least trolling, I can not imagine we already hit saturation in smart, open minded participants. Just encouraging good people to participate. A
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Post by anitya on Jul 25, 2021 20:48:19 GMT
Anitya, You might want to check out ALTL's cousin FCTR. While the former switches around between low vol and high beta stocks, FCTR switches around among various factors (momentum, quality, low vol, and value). Good one. During its existence it did not fall too far behind SPY but when Value factor started working it clearly outperformed the growth biased SPY. First Trust is usually an OK shop but am surprised by the tracking error. I would explore other shops' products using the same index to see if they do a better job of minimizing the tracking error. For example, I have PALC on my watch list, which appears to have lower tracking error but it has not been around as long as FCTR so can not say PALC is executing better for sure. Also, PALC AUM is under $100M, which for me is a threshold to potentially avoid future liquidations. So, FCTR it is for now. Correction: PALC and FCTR are not based exactly on the same index. The index provider is the same in both cases and both indices have similar names and start with the same premise but in the final step the index FCTR is based on picks more factors than the one PALC is based on. Think of FCTR as a less aggressive than PALC, which is more focused - so those differences could have consequences for volatility and returns. Given all the comments in other threads about market timing and factor based investing, I was not worried about somebody acting on my original reply but thought I should post the correction to maintain the forum's high standards on intellectual honesty. |
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