Greater China Equity Investment

[anitya]

I have accessed this market through FHKCX and I have not added to it in over two months.  However, my investment is down about 10%.  How are others that invested in this market doing and what are your thoughts on continuing with it or adding more to it?

Since my investment, the overzealous CCP has been increasingly making noise about not letting any non-state controlled enterprise to get too big.   Is the current down-trend in China stock market because of that or independent of that?

If the Greater China stock market still holds promise, what is the best vehicle to access this market? 

Thanks for your thoughts.

[chang]

I started buying FHKCX last year. I just checked and I am up a whopping 0.16% as of today. I have no intention to sell however. I see no fault lines in the terrain for Asian corporate growth and profit. Or, if there are any, they are smaller than anywhere else.

FHKCX is a little more blendy than most Asia or China region funds. I consider it a good choice.

[johntaylor]

Have a small amount in TR's China Evolution Equity (fast out of the gate)

[Chahta]

It seems as though this Go-Go market has created impatience in you all.    I suggest that all markets are toppy now and time will have China pick up again.

I am not a great fan of world ex-US investing. I prefer to let my ETF (VEU) select what they think is best to buy. I probably have missed some opportunity there though. 

[richardsok]

I tend to agree with Chahta. To watch China, ASHR is one of the 30 symbols I have taped aside my computer screen. It has been in a relatively steady bearish slide for well over a month now, with only the feeblest attempt at support today. Possible bottom? Maybe, but probabilities are not overwhelmingly auspicious with the Suez blocked.
In any case, I wouldn't touch any China-focused mutual fund with a "settle at end of trading day" policy. ETFs only. If I pull a trigger to get out, I want to be OUT.
Nothing wrong with VEU as an alternative, IMO. Chart just a bit too volatile for my taste.

[yogibearbull]

VEU has a good chunk in China-region. It may be using GDP-weights for countries and market-caps within. I avoid indexes for foreign, EM, Asia.

[Deleted]

I noticed that Baidu crashed like 46% from peak. i do not have the stock. ARTYX is down 20% from peak.

EM is not working so far but it is rather short time period to judge.

[Deleted]

I think we are just seeing a period of volatility. There has been all kinds of chatter about delisting China stock from US exchanges. I don’t really keep up with politics but it seems like there are some increased tensions as well. It is a long term hold for me, but I have noticed it has been down.

[chang]

Mar 27, 2021 0:10:05 GMT @slooow said:

I think we are just seeing a period of volatility. There has been all kinds of chatter about delisting China stock from US exchanges. I don’t really keep up with politics but it seems like there are some increased tensions as well. It is a long term hold for me, but I have noticed it has been down.

Same here. All I see is routine noise. I am not trying to trade Asia or China (or anything actually). Everything I own now is a LT hold. I would buy the recent dip if I were not trying to limit my overall equity exposure.

[Norbert]

I agree about the "noise" and think we've been seeing normal profit taking / volatility / rotation / corrective action (take your pick) after a very strong run-up (maybe too far, too fast).

There were probably better entry points, but the longer term narrative hasn't changed.

[Deleted]

Doing some reading/listening - please check me on this, but the US capital market share of global markets is around 58%. Looking at dividend yield, earnings growth, and p/e s, emerging and international markets are “predicted” to outperform the US markets over the next 5-7 years. This is anecdotal from a podcast I was listening to and the statement was made there is broad consensus by analysts who look at capital markets. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but more likely than not. Suggesting a tilt that way. They are cheaper (lower p/e) than the US right now, better dividend yield, and better earnings growth.

[Chahta]

Mar 26, 2021 16:40:00 GMT yogibearbull said:

VEU has a good chunk in China-region. It may be using GDP-weights for countries and market-caps within. I avoid indexes for foreign, EM, Asia.

Why is that? Too many varied choices within the world?

[yogibearbull]

Mar 27, 2021 13:01:59 GMT Chahta said:

Mar 26, 2021 16:40:00 GMT yogibearbull said:

VEU has a good chunk in China-region. It may be using GDP-weights for countries and market-caps within. I avoid indexes for foreign, EM, Asia.

Why is that? Too many varied choices within the world?

No. GDP + market-wtd indexes favor old style huge companies in the EMs, many state-owned/controlled. That isn't where action or growth is. I am willing to pay some ER for active EM managers who can make better selections. I do take the risk that they may underperform.

[Deleted]

So, I am experimenting with that - passive and active for EM - I have IEMG and AIA on the passive end. FEMKX -(2/3 of EM allocation) on the managed side. Then I picked up some BABA earlier in the year. Some of the developed etfs I picked also have Em - VSS and IXUS.

[anitya]

Thanks.

[johntaylor]

Agree with active for foreign small despite the higher cost drag.

Emerging markets -- and a fortiori pioneer markets -- put a lot of stress on the EMH notion that all info is baked into share price.