Post by yogibearbull on Mar 6, 2021 16:48:32 GMT
Pg 12-13: ECB monetary policy on Thursday.
On wider availability of vaccines, travel stocks have rebounded sharply YTD: JETS +17%, SAVE +48%, BLU +29%; NCLH, CCL, RCL all +23%+.
Walmart/WMT has partnered with venture capital firm Ribbit Capital to launch a new fintech and has hired 2 executives from Marcus/GS. Ribbit has funded Robinhood, Credit Karma, Wealthfront, Coinbase, Affirm, BharatPe, etc.
Data this week: Wholesale inventories on Monday; small business optimism index on Tuesday; CPI, Treasury budget on Wednesday; JOLTS report on Thursday; PPI, UM sentiment on Friday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Bullish: Home improvement retailer Lowe’s [LOW; fwd P/E 16; beneficiary of pandemic as people at-home did home improvement projects; also strong post-pandemic recovery play although sales may decline but profit margins may go up; strength in housing should continue despite rise in 30-yr mortgage rates to over 3%; pg 15];
small-cap luxury e-commerce MyTheresa [MYTE; fwd P/E 63.4 (at least profitable); P/S 2.8; January IPO; based in Germany; sales 60% Europe, 10% US, 10% China; pandemic has accelerated growth of luxury e-commerce; provides personal shoppers, concierge services, invitations to special events; pg 16];
biotech Vertex [VRTX; fwd P/E 18.2; selling overdone on canceled development of an early-stage cystic fibrosis drug, but others are in the pipeline; new CEO Kewalramani; cooperation with CRSP on gene-editing technologies; may grow by acquisition, or be acquired; pg 17].
Bearish: See other stories.
Pg 11: Barron’s ugly ducklings from July [MIK (bought out by APO), SBH, BLKB] have done quite well.
Pg 19: 100 Years of Barron’s reviews history of prohibitions in the US – alcohol in 1920s and 1930s [repealed in 1933], marijuana now [NJ became 15th state to legalizes; the federal ban remains]. Barron’s never supported prohibitions. – as supporter of free markets and also that prohibitions only lead to illegal or underground activities and unequal justice. Canada legalized marijuana in 2018 and several related companies are based there [CGC, TLRY, ACB]; many of these shares are also listed in the US and there is an ETF MJ. [Comments note that the US-based marijuana industry with several MSOs (multi-state operators) was ignored].
Pg 26: ARK CEO Cathie Wood has disrupted investment management with her active [ARKK, ARKG, ARKW, ARKF, ARKQ] and passive [PRNT, IZRL] ETFs. Active ARK ETFs have bought highflying innovative or disruptive growth stocks. She has a social-media following; firm employees also use social-media extensively [unusual; other firms cite compliance reasons for not allowing this]. In 2020, top 3 firms for inflows were Vanguard, BlackRock, ARK! Are ARK funds flying too close to the sun in a bull market? Wood isn’t worried. A USC graduate [mentor Arthur Laffer], she worked at Capital Group, Jennison Associates, Tupelo Capital, AllianceBernstein before launching ARK in 2014. The new firm struggled from 2014-17 without office, money, employees, but now has $47 billion AUM [most of came in 2020] and 30 employees.
Pg 29: David Hammer of HY muni PYMAX/PHMIX [and Head of muni group at Pimco] says that investment-grade muni are rich now; HY munis have spreads of only 260 bps, so he is selective. Fund’s top holdings are munis from IL, NY, CA; also, some exposure to PR. He avoids big blowups or restructurings. He balances rate and credit risks with a diverse portfolio of GOs, revenue bonds, taxable munis. HY munis have higher volatility due to their illiquidity.
Pg 31: Dividends and dividend-growth from techs: CSCO, QCOM, AVGO, TXN, AMAT, MA, V, MSFT.
Pg 32: 2020 tech winners have sold off. Nasdaq Comp was in the correction zone intraday on Friday but this tech selloff isn’t done yet. Post-pandemic recovery is bad news for at-home beneficiaries of 2020. Covid-19 vaccinations will be widespread by May. Stimulus3 is on the way and infrastructure bill may follow. Huge monetary and fiscal stimulus will benefit cyclicals; bond yields, commodity prices, wages will rise. Past growth darlings will suffer – already, from the recent highs, ARKK -25%, IPO -22%, CLOU -15%. Several growth-techs have reported great earnings, but their stocks responded negatively. A bear market is unlikely. Go with cyclicals [including cyclical-techs (HPQ, AMAT, LRCX)]; but be very selective with growth-techs.
Pg 33: MA Senator Warren’s wealth tax/fee may be good for investors after all. Proposed 2% annual tax on assets over $50 million, with extra 1% surcharge for assets over $1 billion, would apply only to 0.5% households with $11 trillion in taxable assets [start your calculators!]. This tax may force the wealthy to deploy assets for more productive purposes – almost 33% of those assets now sit in low-yielding deposits and bonds, thinking being why take risk when they have so much. Privately held companies may pay their tax in cash or via private-shares. If journalists can track the assets of the wealthy, although with imperfections, so can the IRS. The overall benefits may outweigh related implementation headaches.
Pg 34: Avi Tiomkin, advisor to hedge funds. Biden’s administration has no big Wall Street names. So far, there are only Deese at NEC and Adeyemo as Deputy Treasury Secretary, both from BlackRock/BLK. Several Wall Street adversaries include Gensler at SEC and several [unnamed] members from Senator Warren’s [MA] and Sanders’ [VT] campaigns. The DC focus is shifting from Wall Street to Main Street, from shareholders to stakeholders. Friendly relations among White House, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell may increase chances of policy errors. Huge monetary and fiscal stimulus and Fed’s tolerance for higher rates may eventually impact the economy and the stock market negatively. There is no Fed put [? Fed put was in action in early 2020] and Powell may be replaced next year.
[Extras from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version]
VanEck has filed for a Bitcoin ETF with the support of CBOE. Recall that CBOE was the first exchange to offer Bitcoin futures in 2017 but withdrew from that in 2019. Bitcoin futures now trade only on CME. A Bitcoin ETF started trading in Canada. The SEC Chair nominee Gensler is quite familiar with cryptocurrencies. May be a crypto ETF will finally get approved in 2021 although Treasury Secretary Yellen is a crypto skeptic.
Link
On wider availability of vaccines, travel stocks have rebounded sharply YTD: JETS +17%, SAVE +48%, BLU +29%; NCLH, CCL, RCL all +23%+.
Walmart/WMT has partnered with venture capital firm Ribbit Capital to launch a new fintech and has hired 2 executives from Marcus/GS. Ribbit has funded Robinhood, Credit Karma, Wealthfront, Coinbase, Affirm, BharatPe, etc.
Data this week: Wholesale inventories on Monday; small business optimism index on Tuesday; CPI, Treasury budget on Wednesday; JOLTS report on Thursday; PPI, UM sentiment on Friday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Bullish: Home improvement retailer Lowe’s [LOW; fwd P/E 16; beneficiary of pandemic as people at-home did home improvement projects; also strong post-pandemic recovery play although sales may decline but profit margins may go up; strength in housing should continue despite rise in 30-yr mortgage rates to over 3%; pg 15];
small-cap luxury e-commerce MyTheresa [MYTE; fwd P/E 63.4 (at least profitable); P/S 2.8; January IPO; based in Germany; sales 60% Europe, 10% US, 10% China; pandemic has accelerated growth of luxury e-commerce; provides personal shoppers, concierge services, invitations to special events; pg 16];
biotech Vertex [VRTX; fwd P/E 18.2; selling overdone on canceled development of an early-stage cystic fibrosis drug, but others are in the pipeline; new CEO Kewalramani; cooperation with CRSP on gene-editing technologies; may grow by acquisition, or be acquired; pg 17].
Bearish: See other stories.
Pg 11: Barron’s ugly ducklings from July [MIK (bought out by APO), SBH, BLKB] have done quite well.
Pg 19: 100 Years of Barron’s reviews history of prohibitions in the US – alcohol in 1920s and 1930s [repealed in 1933], marijuana now [NJ became 15th state to legalizes; the federal ban remains]. Barron’s never supported prohibitions. – as supporter of free markets and also that prohibitions only lead to illegal or underground activities and unequal justice. Canada legalized marijuana in 2018 and several related companies are based there [CGC, TLRY, ACB]; many of these shares are also listed in the US and there is an ETF MJ. [Comments note that the US-based marijuana industry with several MSOs (multi-state operators) was ignored].
Pg 26: ARK CEO Cathie Wood has disrupted investment management with her active [ARKK, ARKG, ARKW, ARKF, ARKQ] and passive [PRNT, IZRL] ETFs. Active ARK ETFs have bought highflying innovative or disruptive growth stocks. She has a social-media following; firm employees also use social-media extensively [unusual; other firms cite compliance reasons for not allowing this]. In 2020, top 3 firms for inflows were Vanguard, BlackRock, ARK! Are ARK funds flying too close to the sun in a bull market? Wood isn’t worried. A USC graduate [mentor Arthur Laffer], she worked at Capital Group, Jennison Associates, Tupelo Capital, AllianceBernstein before launching ARK in 2014. The new firm struggled from 2014-17 without office, money, employees, but now has $47 billion AUM [most of came in 2020] and 30 employees.
Pg 29: David Hammer of HY muni PYMAX/PHMIX [and Head of muni group at Pimco] says that investment-grade muni are rich now; HY munis have spreads of only 260 bps, so he is selective. Fund’s top holdings are munis from IL, NY, CA; also, some exposure to PR. He avoids big blowups or restructurings. He balances rate and credit risks with a diverse portfolio of GOs, revenue bonds, taxable munis. HY munis have higher volatility due to their illiquidity.
Pg 31: Dividends and dividend-growth from techs: CSCO, QCOM, AVGO, TXN, AMAT, MA, V, MSFT.
Pg 32: 2020 tech winners have sold off. Nasdaq Comp was in the correction zone intraday on Friday but this tech selloff isn’t done yet. Post-pandemic recovery is bad news for at-home beneficiaries of 2020. Covid-19 vaccinations will be widespread by May. Stimulus3 is on the way and infrastructure bill may follow. Huge monetary and fiscal stimulus will benefit cyclicals; bond yields, commodity prices, wages will rise. Past growth darlings will suffer – already, from the recent highs, ARKK -25%, IPO -22%, CLOU -15%. Several growth-techs have reported great earnings, but their stocks responded negatively. A bear market is unlikely. Go with cyclicals [including cyclical-techs (HPQ, AMAT, LRCX)]; but be very selective with growth-techs.
Pg 33: MA Senator Warren’s wealth tax/fee may be good for investors after all. Proposed 2% annual tax on assets over $50 million, with extra 1% surcharge for assets over $1 billion, would apply only to 0.5% households with $11 trillion in taxable assets [start your calculators!]. This tax may force the wealthy to deploy assets for more productive purposes – almost 33% of those assets now sit in low-yielding deposits and bonds, thinking being why take risk when they have so much. Privately held companies may pay their tax in cash or via private-shares. If journalists can track the assets of the wealthy, although with imperfections, so can the IRS. The overall benefits may outweigh related implementation headaches.
Pg 34: Avi Tiomkin, advisor to hedge funds. Biden’s administration has no big Wall Street names. So far, there are only Deese at NEC and Adeyemo as Deputy Treasury Secretary, both from BlackRock/BLK. Several Wall Street adversaries include Gensler at SEC and several [unnamed] members from Senator Warren’s [MA] and Sanders’ [VT] campaigns. The DC focus is shifting from Wall Street to Main Street, from shareholders to stakeholders. Friendly relations among White House, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell may increase chances of policy errors. Huge monetary and fiscal stimulus and Fed’s tolerance for higher rates may eventually impact the economy and the stock market negatively. There is no Fed put [? Fed put was in action in early 2020] and Powell may be replaced next year.
[Extras from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version]
VanEck has filed for a Bitcoin ETF with the support of CBOE. Recall that CBOE was the first exchange to offer Bitcoin futures in 2017 but withdrew from that in 2019. Bitcoin futures now trade only on CME. A Bitcoin ETF started trading in Canada. The SEC Chair nominee Gensler is quite familiar with cryptocurrencies. May be a crypto ETF will finally get approved in 2021 although Treasury Secretary Yellen is a crypto skeptic.
Link
