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TCAF
Mar 13, 2024 15:17:44 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Mar 13, 2024 15:17:44 GMT
@ chang,...I revisited TCAF...nice short term chart. High exposure to technology. I am not a fan of Geroux investing higher exposure to utilities and ESG type companies. So I did some compare chart cursory stuff, and got: --Since recent inception, TCAF behind FSPTX which I own (expected as FSPTX is 100% technology), and dead even with VHCOX or VCPPX, Vanguard Cap Appreciation Core stock funds (+20%). Like, I am advising/managing my daughters IRAs, and other peoples portfolios, and the question always is whether or not to invest specifically in high tech and core value separately, or to go in one fund like TCAF. Only the high utility and esg exposure (and low % in energy) that is keeping me from TCAF as the preference. R48
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Post by chang on Mar 13, 2024 15:43:43 GMT
retiredat48 Compare TCAF to SPY (S&P500) ... it would make no sense to compare to FSPTX or VHCOX or any other fund. I believe Giroux's objective is to beat the S&P500 with less volatility. Anyway, I added to TCAF simply to "balance" my sale of FBGRX in the IRA -- not exactly the same [if I wanted I could have bought FBCG] but ... as I said ... I opened a posish in TCAF a little while ago, and I'd like to build it up. Utilities is another (good) question - I'm still keeping that position (FSUTX), but not sure for how long. They've been very volatile and almost acting like an S&P500 inverse fund. I'm hoping for a RTTM in 2024 given the past 1-2 years struggle. But Warren poured cold water over utilities so who knows ... I'm watching it, and if I see any kind of downtrend develop, I'll cut them loose in a heartbeat. (For the moment it's above its 50 & 200 dma.) Edit - I am not aware of any ESG focus in TCAF. Please correct me if I’m wrong. I also want nothing to do with funds with an ESG / DEI focus.
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TCAF
Mar 13, 2024 18:14:14 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Mar 13, 2024 18:14:14 GMT
... Edit - I am not aware of any ESG focus in TCAF. Please correct me if I’m wrong. I also want nothing to do with funds with an ESG / DEI focus. Well it is hard to distinguish, given Exxon has a high ESG rating. But in Geroux half hour video he discussed his themes gong forward, and being in green energy and ESG types is what I remember along with utilities. Perhaps more for PRWCX, but these themes are in his investment horizon. He may be fully vindicated. But the world (both official leaders and citizens)in the last 4-6 months has taken a broad shift AWAY...AGAINST a lot of these green regulations,etc. Just like EV auto sales collapsing. I will monitor Geroux and if his funds jump into a leadership role, I will follow. Don't fight the tape or momentum! R48
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TCAF
Mar 13, 2024 20:11:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by chang on Mar 13, 2024 20:11:05 GMT
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TCAF
Mar 13, 2024 22:15:55 GMT
chang likes this
Post by bizman on Mar 13, 2024 22:15:55 GMT
I am also unaware of an ESG focus from Giroux. He's just going where he thinks the best returns will be. He will be wrong at times. Remember Peter Lynch's saying if you're good in investing you are right 6 times out of 10, you will never be right 9 times out of ten.
According to M*'s portfolio tab TCAF had 7.06% in utilities as of 12-31-23. VOO had 2.23% as of 1-31-24. So it's an overweight, but not 20% of the portfolio. Plus as an active manager, he can change his mind.
As of the M* data as of 12-31-23, I find the following utility holdings:
1.51% of assets in Ameren, 1.15% in Xcel Energy, 0.96% in Exelon, 0.94% in DTE Energy, 0.82% in CenterPoint Energy, 0.59% in Essential Utilities, 0.54% in WEC Energy, 0.31% in NextEra Energy, 0.22% in CMS Energy.
Especially given Buffett's mea culpas in his letter about his poor judgment with utilities, I will be fascinated with his take in May and beyond. Also interested to hear if Giroux has updated thoughts. And perhaps there are reasons that he thinks favor his holdings over others, as I would expect. But I am not in any way thinking about pulling the plug on TCAF.
EDITED TO ADD:
Aside from the investment implications, it will be fascinating to see how the needed and desired huge buildout of generation and transmission lines will be financed if there is a country-wide regulatory war against utilities. Something is going to have to give there.
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TCAF
Mar 14, 2024 4:04:42 GMT
via mobile
anitya likes this
Post by Norbert on Mar 14, 2024 4:04:42 GMT
I observe that TCAF (red) has been tracking SPY almost perfectly during its short life. PRWCX (green) is, of course, a different animal. (Click to enlarge.)
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TCAF
Mar 14, 2024 8:02:57 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Mar 14, 2024 8:02:57 GMT
retiredat48 , chang , bizman , Norbert ,...Sorry I didn't mean to imply the Price funds held Exxon.It was only an example. I may be misleading in saying ESG when in fact I think it is more "green investing"...that is, choosing companies benefiting from the growth in alternative energy. And yes his utility allocation is overweighted. Look, I posted I am interested in TCAF and am following closely. However, I am concerned when any fund has a high concentration allocation to any one sector where the sector has had a decade long outstanding performance and has zoomed upward parabolic recently, such as high tech. This applies to both S&P500 index and TCAF, with high sector weight to technology. If I were to exit tech, and held only these funds, one must sell the entire fund and its holdings. I hold high tech in one fund alone, and some value type cap appreciation in another. So if I exit I will do so only from the high tech fund. I don't have to touch the value part...or: All other stock parts. I find this advantageous. FSPTX Fidelity tech sector fund, owned since inception, is now my largest holding (due internal generic growth) and I lose some sleep of whether, or when, to exit some. But comforting that I don't have to exit from all my stock holdings to accomplish this. BTW I am also currently slowly accumulating USA Small Cap Funds. R48
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TCAF
Mar 14, 2024 11:16:21 GMT
Post by mnfish on Mar 14, 2024 11:16:21 GMT
I observe that TCAF (red) has been tracking SPY almost perfectly during its short life. PRWCX (green) is, of course, a different animal. (Click to enlarge.) View AttachmentFrom the TCAF Fund Summary - Contrarian approach with a quality bias. This fund employs a contrarian approach that allows us to identify high-quality companies that we believe have been mispriced due to near-term challenges or overlooked opportunities. SPY and TCAF both have 28% in their top holdings - MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG(L), META and AMZN - Contrarian?
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Post by yogibearbull on Mar 14, 2024 11:54:28 GMT
TCAF is an active & transparent ETF (Price has both semi-transparent and transparent ETFs). I don't know why M* still has 12/31/23 portfolio data. Price has daily portfolio data, www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/etfs/capital-appreciation-equity-etf.html#primary-holdingsIt may be better to use index funds (OEFs, ETFs) for personal timing strategies. Guessing what active fund managers may be doing by using months old stale portfolio data isn't useful. Also keep in mind that TCAF is 100% equity, while PRWCX has moderate-allocation: 57.27% nominal equity, 72.82% effective equity. PRWCX's goal to beat SP500 over time is just a goal, so it won't act like 100% equity in the short-term. I have a large position in TCAF and I am willing to give Giroux a few years to prove its worth. I think that he is a GARP investor.
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TCAF
Mar 26, 2024 21:16:46 GMT
Post by johntaylor on Mar 26, 2024 21:16:46 GMT
Managers historically used value screens and asked the question "How much can I lose owning this?" They used to say as much attention was paid to preserving capital as attempting to maximize gains.
Have owned Cap Apprec since 1986, so it'll be fascinating to see how the new one does.
He says: "Time and time again, by taking a longer view than the market...we have created and continue to seek...value by investing against the macroeconomic consensus" (Annual Report, Dec 2023, 7).
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