Post by FD1000 on Feb 29, 2024 20:50:00 GMT
On 9/15/22(fortune.com/2022/09/15/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-gloomy-market-prediction-interest-rates-stocks/), Ray Dalio said
Quote: Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.
A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.
The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.
Reality: the 10 year treasury increased to 5%. The SP500 made about 32% since that date (schrts.co/vgRbHhfH) and it never went down anything close to 20%. The biggest annual loss since 2008 happened around 03/2020 where the SP500 went down about 33-34%. Another expert fell on his sword.
Many experts (Arnott, GMO, Shiller, Michael Wilson, Gundlach, the Pimco team) have not adjusted their models and opinions since 2010, or several years during this time that WE ARE IN A NEW MARKET. The Fed have played a major role by manipulating rates + QE/QT, and the high tech increased their power, and earnings globally. These 2 major forces do not follow the old traditional regression to the mean, VALUE investing and more.
Dalio said today that "The stock market ‘doesn’t look very bubbly" (www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-doesnt-look-very-bubbly-to-billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-5b76be07)...mmm...after 32% increase from his 2022 prediction, NOW it's not very bubbly?
BTW, many have been calling for overvaluation now for 1-4-8 weeks + the last several months and keep trimming their stocks % and going to cash/mm.
They also told us that February is one of the worse months...wrong again.
Disclaimer: the above is generic and has nothing to do with what I do.
Quote: Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.
A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.
The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.
Reality: the 10 year treasury increased to 5%. The SP500 made about 32% since that date (schrts.co/vgRbHhfH) and it never went down anything close to 20%. The biggest annual loss since 2008 happened around 03/2020 where the SP500 went down about 33-34%. Another expert fell on his sword.
Many experts (Arnott, GMO, Shiller, Michael Wilson, Gundlach, the Pimco team) have not adjusted their models and opinions since 2010, or several years during this time that WE ARE IN A NEW MARKET. The Fed have played a major role by manipulating rates + QE/QT, and the high tech increased their power, and earnings globally. These 2 major forces do not follow the old traditional regression to the mean, VALUE investing and more.
Dalio said today that "The stock market ‘doesn’t look very bubbly" (www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-doesnt-look-very-bubbly-to-billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-5b76be07)...mmm...after 32% increase from his 2022 prediction, NOW it's not very bubbly?
BTW, many have been calling for overvaluation now for 1-4-8 weeks + the last several months and keep trimming their stocks % and going to cash/mm.
They also told us that February is one of the worse months...wrong again.
Disclaimer: the above is generic and has nothing to do with what I do.