small caps in 2024?

[keppelbay]

Hi Equity fans

I'm interested on your thoughts on allocation to small US caps vs SPY vs QQQ for the year ahead. 

If you like small cap chances, what are your preferred vehicles? Anyone still favoring AVUV vs a pure index ETF?

[uncleharley]

I have gravitated towards ETFs for my pure equity investments. AVUV would be an excellent choice for small caps.

[howaya]

I am not completely convinced SC will be a rewarding choice this year. In part, because their prospects are more impaired by "higher for longer" interest rates than larger brethren; they also can be more volatile. Instead I am looking closely at mid-caps as a compromise. I have been watching COWZ and XMHQ for a while now - a typical slow, methodical(?), doubt-filled approach with which I have always struggled.

[richardsok]

Feb 21, 2024 13:18:03 GMT uncleharley said:

I have gravitated towards ETFs for my pure equity investments. AVUV would be an excellent choice for small caps.

AMOM,  SPY  & AVUV  :


tinyurl.com/4w4hp3tz


Don't see the attraction.

[bruce]

DFSVX has served me well as my Small Cap allocation.

[chang]

Feb 21, 2024 11:16:06 GMT keppelbay said:

Hi Equity fans

I'm interested on your thoughts on allocation to small US caps vs SPY vs QQQ for the year ahead. 

If you like small cap chances, what are your preferred vehicles? Anyone still favoring AVUV vs a pure index ETF?

Hi KB

I own AVUV. No allocation to SPY or QQQ if you mean specifically the S&P500 and Nasdaq qua indexes. But I have a large allocation to US LC via various funds.

AVSC should be an equally good option as AVUV, I just decided to go with the value tilt, since DFA and Avantis are best known for value screening.

[johntaylor]

Keeping an eye on S Fund (small to mid), but not a big part of overall holdings

[yogibearbull]

Feb 21, 2024 16:54:47 GMT johntaylor said:

Keeping an eye on S Fund (small to mid), but not a big part of overall holdings

TSP S Fund? That is like VXF - SP500 Completion Index. It has the same issues as with R2000 - lot of unprofitable companies (40%).
Better are selective IJR, SPSM.

[johntaylor]

Yep, S Fund = completion.   No doubt there are some better, but been with TSP since inception and not a big part of overall holdings

[bb2]

I checked SPY v. IWM, IJR, SPSM and for every time period, (1 day to forever or since inception), from today date back in time, SPY won big.

But other time periods, say, ending in 2020, IJR kinda shines.

I often listen to CNBC for 20 minutes at noon ET, the first segment of "Halftime Report". (I do leg lifts.) Josh Brown was touting small caps based on RSI, and called it "investing", (though in a round about way, so maybe I misunderstood). This is a bit off topic, but I don't think chasing RSI or a broad ETF consititutes investing. Maybe portfolio constructiion, but that's another notion that, IMO, comes out of wall street and which does no individual investor any good.

[retiredat48]

keppelbay,...I thought I posted before that I am pyramiding up buys in AVUV. Awaiting chart pattern to get into new high territory.

R48

[keppelbay]

Mar 14, 2024 19:43:23 GMT retiredat48 said:

keppelbay ,...I thought I posted before that I am pyramiding up buys in AVUV. Awaiting chart pattern to get into new high territory.

R48

On further reflection, i'm too chicken.... good luck!

[chang]

I searched BB and found that my first buy of AVUV was in July 2023. I recall my thinking: I liked the idea of indexing or a quant fund for SC because the universe of SC companies is so vast. Also, it’s in Taxable, so I wanted passive/ETF for tax reasons. I dislike market cap-weighted indexes, so I started looking at Dimensional/DFA’s new ETF series which included DFSV.

However, someone (wish I could recall who) suggested I look into Avantis, run by ex-DFA people. I did, and found that AVUV was both cheaper and (looked) better than DFSV, so I hopped on board. AVSC probably would have been equally good, but for some reason I picked AVUV.

(Edit: Avantis also runs AVMV/AVMC, which I believe are similar midcap versions of AVUV/AVSC. However since my portfolio is essentially all LC, it seems smarter for me to “barbell” using AVUV … what would be the point of a MC fund.)

[retiredat48]

Mar 14, 2024 21:01:06 GMT keppelbay said:

Mar 14, 2024 19:43:23 GMT retiredat48 said:

keppelbay ,...I thought I posted before that I am pyramiding up buys in AVUV. Awaiting chart pattern to get into new high territory.

R48

On further reflection, i'm too chicken.... good luck!

"Too chicken"...I fully understand.  I invented Pyramid Up applicable to mutual fund/ETF investing to primarily deal with "chicken...afraid, especially at new highs."    I have posted often that by pyramiding up, I can comfortably start accumulating any fund, at any time, under any market conditions. 

I just replied to another poster via private message the following, on getting started:

" Pyramid up starts AFTER the investor makes the initial buy. Like you buy in five buckets, each subsequent bucket bought higher in price than the previous bucket.

But oh the when for the first bucket, each investors decision. Here's how I would view starting in AVUV. Look at stockcharts.com for avuv. The high was made in Dec last year. The pattern is one of an ascending triangle, meaning the cyclic lows are each higher than before; highs staying even. This is a strong chart pattern. RSI and MA indicator charts are neutral to favorable.

Clearly if AVUV breaks out upward to a new high, this is a buy point. Likewise if AVUV goes to 200 day Moving average line, this is a buy point, but that is far apart. Some use the 50 day MA line and avuv is very close to it...a couple percent away. Or NOW is not a bad point as small caps sold off with current inflation info. So if you buy a bucket today, I would say next buy is if avuv goes to a new high!

Do same for any other fund buys. You determine when to start. Obviously a good 3-5% more selloff downturn is a good start point, but may not happen.. The investor dilemma as you state. Using a 1/5 bucket enables one to better get started."

------------------------------

If we have a shift in the next decade to small caps leading, and speculative fever hits small caps, todays market changes will be but blips on a long term chart of upward performance.

R48

[keppelbay]

retiredat48, you persuaded me to overcome my hesitancy. I decided to dip a toe in the water with a small starter position so that I keep an eye on it. We'll see if I get comfortable enough to take another step, or just flip for a quick small profit (or loss)...

[retiredat48]

Mar 15, 2024 14:35:13 GMT keppelbay said:

retiredat48 , you persuaded me to overcome my hesitancy. I decided to dip a toe in the water with a small starter position so that I keep an eye on it. We'll see if I get comfortable enough to take another step, or just flip for a quick small profit (or loss)...

One attaboy to @keppelbay,...very good.  I note generally a down market day today but AVUV is up!

Your next pyrup buy would be with AVUV making new highs at above $91+/share.  BTW That will be my next pyrup buy also.

Instead of flipping, IMO small caps have the conditions to be the next major performance gain sector.  May take a year or two.  Patience.

Remember the mantra: "Many a bum walks the streets of Boston murmuring to themselves: I bought IBM at $2/sold at $3."  Or: I bought NVIDIA at $5/sold at $8.

R48

[retiredat48]

keppelbay ,...anovice...OK Kep, let me finish the process of using Pyr Up practice. You bot a small bucket. Now, what if AVUV languishes from this day onward , either flat or declining lets say 5-10% down, for the next year?

First, recognize pyr up saved you from a full buckets worth decline. A 10 % decline of 1/5 of buy money is not large. Yes, you can use a stop loss sell if desired, but try to understand why the decline.Is it a bad fund portfolio, or simply the market overall decline?

Second, lets say small caps as a space lagged for a year. You obviously do not buy more. Now, the 4/5 money not invested may go elsewhere seeking other opportunities if any. Don't make it dead money, waiting.

Third, I use a period of about a year when it is fully acceptable to START OVER. So if you sense AVUV is down 10% but small caps appear on verge of a runup, OK to buy another bucket, and restart pyrup.

Lastly, if small caps start upward again but AVUV lags, do not buy more. Buy the leading fund at that time. Use momentum to your advantage. And never stay with a fund for which the index fund is bettering it.

Good day all...

R48

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Being an asset allocator my smid cap sleeve is part of the growth area of my portfolio which accounts about 15% of my overall portfolio. Currently, I am about two thirds LCG and one third the smids. Thus far EAASX is the better performer in the sleeve. I use a form of the pyramid up investing system and use step buys to build my positions to a full position. Generally, I will buy at predetermined price points and average in over time. The members of my smid cap sleeve are EAASX, FKASX, PMDAX, and SMCWX, all being long term holdings. My five year average annual total return for this sleeve 8.12% with EAASX, being the top producer, returning an average of 11.2% (annually). So for me the smids are not something that I dabble in, from time to time, but part of my overall equity allocation.

[racqueteer]

EAASX... Very steady performer up and down.  Seems to have been in the right place over the last year; despite not being heavy into tech.  Large stake in Financials and Industrials.  Seems like a nice fund to hold.  Wasn't motivated to look at the others.

[retiredat48]

Mar 18, 2024 11:29:43 GMT oldskeet said:

Hi guys. Being an asset allocator my smid cap sleeve is part of the growth area of my portfolio which accounts about 15% of my overall portfolio. Currently, I am about two thirds LCG and one third the smids. Thus far EAASX is the better performer in the sleeve. I use a form of the pyramid up investing system and use step buys to build my positions to a full position. Generally, I will buy at predetermined price points and average in over time. The members of my smid cap sleeve are EAASX, FKASX, PMDAX, and SMCWX, all being long term holdings. My five year average annual total return for this sleeve 8.12% with EAASX, being the top producer, returning an average of 11.2% (annually). So for me the smids are not something that I dabble in, from time to time, but part of my overall equity allocation.

oldskeet ,racqueteer ,...thanks oldskeet.  Nice chart for EAASX.  It is a mid cap, correct.  I will add to my follow list.  I need to add to midcaps.  Note: I get a lot of my fund ideas from these boards...osmosis for all.

Edit to add...posted this elsewhere:  For you speculative gold, bitcoin...equity traders, MJ pot stock etf up about 17% last two days. Biden admin. changing positions and pushing some good things favoring the companies.

R48

[chang]

retiredat48: “I need to add midcaps.”

Do you? Please explain here:
big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/3102/mid-caps-needed