Post by bb2 on Feb 20, 2024 20:47:44 GMT
A couple links:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/whats-driving-the-stock-market-returns/
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/the-united-states-is-at-all-time-highs/
Tech rules. The US rules. Tech scales and the earnings, margins and growth are high. The US has outperformed and that trend will continue because that's where tech is, as well as what Ben mentions: the dollar, demographics, oceans. I see little reason to invest in anything other than tech, unless you're going for income or trying to grab a short term play in a mismatch of valuations or some situation rises.
Rates and falling skies - DCF? Hasn't worked out because when you have loads of cash, who cares what rates are. (You own your house, right?)
I hear China is making roads into tech but I really don't know, though when I look at the authors of tech papers from US sources, Asian names are common. They can go home, anytime. Chinese culture is intense. Chinese demographics, maybe not the best but they still have a very focused population. That said, the US us still my baby. So far. Any pick and shovel AI play is very suspect - consulting will still be a poorly scaling business. Surprised C3.AI skipped over C3.Taylor_Swift. BTC? - still Beanie Babies but there's no end to FOMO. I know 2 guys who were in at $5k a decade ago. Strange, but then, so much is strange. BTC remains a curiosity, like human nature. I might have taken a flyer on BTC but the one attempt I made, before balking at sending a photo of my driver's license to Coinbase, only resulted in a deluge of phishing attempts. So, the safest BTC custodian at the time, Coinbase, seemed a source of email addresses for criminals. At least that was my experience.
