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Post by Capital on Jan 31, 2024 16:22:58 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 31, 2024 16:26:38 GMT
My comments on a similar post at MFO,
Pimco has a history in distressed credit that, in fact, goes back to Bill Gross' time.
During the GFC 2008-09, Pimco loaded on distressed residential MBS under the initiative of a guy names Ivascyn - he hired 200+ mortgage specialists to go over many residential mortgages one-by-one to pick the better ones. In fact, that may have started Gross vs Ivascyn friction/rivalry at Pimco, and we know how that went. So, I won't be surprised by its plans for private credit. I always keep some exposure to Pimco funds - PONAX / PIMIX, PDI, PDO, PAXS.
But distressed investing is risky and Pimco has gotten burned with some Argentina and East European credits.
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Post by roi2020 on Feb 1, 2024 8:06:52 GMT
My comments on a similar post at MFO, Pimco has a history in distressed credit that, in fact, goes back to Bill Gross' time. During the GFC 2008-09, Pimco loaded on distressed residential MBS under the initiative of a guy names Ivascyn - he hired 200+ mortgage specialists to go over many residential mortgages one-by-one to pick the better ones. [snip]
This was perhaps a once-in-a-generation opportunity. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 1, 2024 12:49:02 GMT
roi2020 , noted. But there were others who didn't jump head first into once-in-a-generation RMBS opportunity during the GFC like Ivascyn. And there will be other opportunities and Ivascyn is still at Pimco (I also think that Murata is the other secret). I expect that he will hit some and miss some.
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Post by roi2020 on Feb 1, 2024 15:27:02 GMT
roi2020 , noted. But there were others who didn't jump head first into once-in-a-generation RMBS opportunity during the GFC like Ivascyn. And there will be other opportunities and Ivascyn is still at Pimco (I also think that Murata is the other secret). I expect that he will hit some and miss some.
I'm sure there will be future opportunities that Ivascyn and company will be able to exploit. |
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Post by bb2 on Feb 1, 2024 15:56:34 GMT
A couple of buildings in downtown LA recently sold for half of what they were last paid for years ago. You can get a big, celeb house in LA for 40 million but you can get a skyscraper in downtown for 150M these days. Seems to me, commercial RE will take a while to flush out. More bank issues today, NYCB, Aozora, and again, they're wondering if it's "idiosyncratic". I have no idea how/where that's relevant. Feels a bit like the GFC but more subtle and specialized; not as easy for a dude at his kitchen table. (As I've said, the guy who set the tiles on my backsplash lived in a 5000 sq foot house with a vinyard back then. Of course he defaulted yet remained in the house for 3 years. I have many personal stories pre GFC and few now.) I'm staying out of it all because I don't know enough. My buddy in downtown office construction, (San Fran), is in the midst of hard times, (layoffs way up the chain) but he's looking to a boom time in 2025 or 6. Those buildings that sold in LA, maybe they're ready for upgrades. I believe the guys who say you can't have that kind of stimulus and not have a reckoning. (Despite what Bruce Van Saun says.) And so, I guess you take a flyer ona fund and hope they know what they're doing.
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Post by mnfish on Feb 4, 2024 11:52:53 GMT
When Powell said "there will be some pain" the businesses and their lenders that rely heavily on cheap money to make it are going to feel it the worst. So far, it appears that "higher for longer" is still in play and that can't bode well for CRE and private credit.
Pimco is already in the private loan business. On their March holdings report PDI, for example, had 36.8% ($1.635B) of their portfolio in that classification. In December it was down to 29.1% ($1.429B) It appears that most of it was due to some defaults and/or stock swaps.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 4, 2024 14:54:51 GMT
I invested over 50% of my portfolio in PIMIX for several years, but after I sold in 01/2018, I stop trusting Pimco. I found better opportunities in HY Munis, MBS, and even Multi sector funds with other funds. Pimco bond funds such as PIMIX,PDI and others didn't prove they can handle market stress better since that time.
I apricate how funds handle down volatility much more than up.
I also stopped listening to the "best" FI manager, Ivascyn, because no matter what market are doing, he always have been saying there are good opportunities in MBS which was not true in the last several years.
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Post by keppelbay on Feb 4, 2024 15:04:32 GMT
FD1000, so out of curiosity, which multisector managers do you think are doing a better job than PIMCO these days?
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 4, 2024 16:52:46 GMT
FD1000 , so out of curiosity, which multisector managers do you think are doing a better job than PIMCO these days? I'm talking about risk-adjusted performance that I have been seeing for years in different markets + all bond categories. PIMIX,RCTIX,RSIIX/RSIVX 3 years ( chart). Just one example. BTW, M* is wrong classifying RSIIX as HY fund. Based on RSIIX ( site) "The Fund focuses on constructing a bottom-up, diversified portfolio primarily in investment grade and high yield corporate debt, preferred stock, convertible bonds, bank loans, and income producing equities, with a target duration of 2.5 to 4." What to do now? I'm not allowed to post what I do, but I can tell you there are excellent choices in bondland for 2024.  |
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Post by fishingrod on Feb 4, 2024 17:08:20 GMT
FD1000 , so out of curiosity, which multisector managers do you think are doing a better job than PIMCO these days? I'm talking about risk-adjusted performance that I have been seeing for years in different markets + all bond categories. PIMIX,RCTIX,RSIIX/RSIVX 3 years ( chart). Just one example. BTW, M* is wrong classifying RSIIX as HY fund. Based on RSIIX ( site) "The Fund focuses on constructing a bottom-up, diversified portfolio primarily in investment grade and high yield corporate debt, preferred stock, convertible bonds, bank loans, and income producing equities, with a target duration of 2.5 to 4." What to do now? I'm not allowed to post what I do, but I can tell you there are excellent choices in bondland for 2024. This sounds like HY high yield.
"Principal Investment Strategies Under normal market conditions, the Low Duration High Yield Fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in fixed income securities and loans issued by companies that are rated below investment grade (i.e., “junk” bonds and loans). The Fund considers below investment grade instruments to include instruments with ratings lower than BBB- by S&P Global Ratings Services (“S&P”) or Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”), or that are not rated or considered by the Adviser to be equivalent to high yield instruments. The Fund generally invests in high yield instruments rated CCC or better by S&P or Moody’s, but retains the discretion to invest in lower rated instruments." |
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 4, 2024 17:20:15 GMT
I'm talking about risk-adjusted performance that I have been seeing for years in different markets + all bond categories. PIMIX,RCTIX,RSIIX/RSIVX 3 years ( chart). Just one example. BTW, M* is wrong classifying RSIIX as HY fund. Based on RSIIX ( site) "The Fund focuses on constructing a bottom-up, diversified portfolio primarily in investment grade and high yield corporate debt, preferred stock, convertible bonds, bank loans, and income producing equities, with a target duration of 2.5 to 4." What to do now? I'm not allowed to post what I do, but I can tell you there are excellent choices in bondland for 2024. This sounds like HY high yield.
"Principal Investment Strategies Under normal market conditions, the Low Duration High Yield Fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in fixed income securities and loans issued by companies that are rated below investment grade (i.e., “junk” bonds and loans). The Fund considers below investment grade instruments to include instruments with ratings lower than BBB- by S&P Global Ratings Services (“S&P”) or Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”), or that are not rated or considered by the Adviser to be equivalent to high yield instruments. The Fund generally invests in high yield instruments rated CCC or better by S&P or Moody’s, but retains the discretion to invest in lower rated instruments." The low duration HY fund is CBLDX, not RSIIX=RiverPark Strategic Income Fund. Regardless, I do a lot of research to find all the data about funds, but my main one is to invest in the best risk/adjusted performance ones according to my goals. In the past, we discussed RPHIX=RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund as a great cash sub in certain times, if you understands and willing to take the risk/SD. Someone who sees the word HY can easily mistaken this fund to have much higher risk/SD. The trick is to know what you own. |
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Post by Capital on Feb 4, 2024 18:53:17 GMT
I request either that the discussion returns to the OP or that this thread be allowed to die - thank you. chang it might be time to lock this thread. Thank you. |
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Post by mnfish on Feb 7, 2024 13:47:57 GMT
When Powell said "there will be some pain" the businesses and their lenders that rely heavily on cheap money to make it are going to feel it the worst. So far, it appears that "higher for longer" is still in play and that can't bode well for CRE and private credit. Pimco is already in the private loan business. On their March holdings report PDI, for example, had 36.8% ($1.635B) of their portfolio in that classification. In December it was down to 29.1% ($1.429B) It appears that most of it was due to some defaults and/or stock swaps. "Indeed, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cause for concern that the ailing commercial real estate market is just beginning to have an impact on banks." “It feels like a problem we'll be working on for years,” he told CBS in a 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, adding that “it's a sizable problem,” although also a "manageable one" that is more likely to affect smaller or regional banks." “To the extent that it’s well distributed, then the system could take losses. We do expect that there will be losses, but there will be banks that have concentrations, and those banks will experience larger losses,” Powell told reporters. “So we’re well aware of that, we’re monitoring it carefully.” |
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