From Barron’s, January 15, 2024 (Part 2)
Jan 13, 2024 15:17:02 GMT
chang, rhythmmethod, and 6 more like this
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 13, 2024 15:17:02 GMT
Pg 9. PREVIEW & REVIEW (consolidated). Cyclical ENERGY is out of favor now but it may be time to add. Oil and natural gas prices have been weak. ETFs are XLE and equal-weight RSPG.
DATA THIS WEEK. Retail sales, business inventories on WEDNESDAY; housing starts on THURSDAY; existing home sales, UM consumer sentiment on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. The US stock & bond markets are closed on Monday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. World’s largest shipper A P Moller-Maersk (AMKBY; disruptions in Suez-Red-Sea route has significantly lengthened shipping times and increased rates; availability of containers and ships is also affected; the US coalition policing this zone hasn’t been effective, and the US & UK bombing of several Houthi targets may cause further escalation; low water levels in Panama Canal are also causing disruptions; these temporary issues may persist for weeks, but may set higher base floors for shipping rates; pg 13);
3rd largest convenience store chain Casey’s (CASY; yield 0.6%; fwd P/E 22; 2,500+ stores, mostly in rural areas; own logistics and distribution network; even offers private-label merchandise; introducing EV charging stations in high demand areas; 5th in national pizza sales; growing by acquisitions, but it itself may be a target for takeover by 7-11/SVNDY or Circle K/ATD or private-equity; pg 15).
BEARISH.
Pg 10, FUNDS. Physical/spot Bitcoin ETFs are finally here: Bitwise BITB, Fidelity FBTC, iShare IBIT, etc; giant GBTC was an uplisting from OTC to NYSE and remained the most expensive. Cryptos had run up in anticipation, but then softened. General adoption of cryptos as an asset class may take years. Coinbase/COIN is heavily involved as custodian (a low margin activity), but a concern is that these ETFs will hurt its other crypto businesses; however, CEO Brian ARMSTRONG hailed theses as a “monumental step” that will do for cryptos “what Starbucks/SBUX did for coffee”. Related ETFs are also coming – spot Ether-based (the SEC views Bitcoin and Ethereum differently), options-based, possibly leveraged. Some court cases are also pending. Vanguard is staying away from the party and isn’t allowing trading in these crypto ETFs.
Pg 30, FUNDS. ESG is less popular now – some firms are even dropping the ESG label from their funds. Top performing ESG funds in 2023 beat the SP500 handily: NWCAX, BIAWX, PARNX, PIODX (1928- ), PMVAX; tech was the driver for growth funds; the ESG funds typically have no/low weights in energy.
Pg 11. Magnificent 7 without TSLA will become an even narrower Magnificent 6; also, without AAPL and META, just Magnificent 4 (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA). But a new and more diversified Magnificent 7 may replace those 3 with BRK, UNH, V.
Pg 31, INCOME. Dividend ARISTOCRATS (ETF NOBL, etc) include AWR, EMR, PG, MMM, LOW, KO, etc. (A recent departure was WBA)
Pg 33, TECH TRADER. Report from CES 2024, LV. The big AI story from 2023 will continue in 2024. AI themes dominated the Show, and it looked like AI-everything. It may even cause a rebound in PC sales that have been slumping for 2 years. One issue will also be local computing vs cloud computing. MSFT is dropping support for W10 in 2025 and that will add to PC replacements (many older PCs cannot support W11). Beneficiaries will be PC makers LNVGY, HPQ, DELL, and chipmakers INTC, AMD, QCOM. But there will be tough competition within the industry.
Pg 62, OTHER VOICES. Christopher SMART, Arbroath Group (investment strategy consulting). Martin Luther KING would have been 95, but his life was cut short at 39. Author muses what MLK would be doing now, if alive? May be the finance industry that is held in such disrespect could learn some lessons from MLK. While the general ideas of business and finance are good, it also draws many bad players (Charles PONZI, Bernie MADOFF, etc). There is also less diversity in the financial industry. Financial leaders often look the other way when they see questionable stuff, and sometimes silence is as bad as bad people. What does the Author propose? More regulations and better pay for regulators, more meaningful corporate charitable and community programs (not just to meet some legal requirements), etc.
Pg 63, RETIREMENT. Discuss financial situation before REMARRYING. Premarital agreements may protect both parties and their descendants. Evaluate joint vs separate tax filings if there are high debts or medical bills. Alimony typically stops with remarriage. Social Security benefits may also be affected (dependent, survivor).
EXTRA. Many parents are using RETIREMENT SAVINGS to help the boomerang generation that has returned home for economic reasons. Besides higher taxes and potential IRMAA hits, this may cause problems later. One-time temporary assistance is fine, but parents must put their retirement first, set reasonable goals and deadlines for children, ask the children to share expenses.
NOTE. It’s very irritating that Barron’s has stopped mentioning TICKERS for most companies mentioned. I now have to look them up. Sometimes this takes time as there are similar names, especially for banks.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
LINK
DATA THIS WEEK. Retail sales, business inventories on WEDNESDAY; housing starts on THURSDAY; existing home sales, UM consumer sentiment on FRIDAY.
CLOSED. The US stock & bond markets are closed on Monday.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. World’s largest shipper A P Moller-Maersk (AMKBY; disruptions in Suez-Red-Sea route has significantly lengthened shipping times and increased rates; availability of containers and ships is also affected; the US coalition policing this zone hasn’t been effective, and the US & UK bombing of several Houthi targets may cause further escalation; low water levels in Panama Canal are also causing disruptions; these temporary issues may persist for weeks, but may set higher base floors for shipping rates; pg 13);
3rd largest convenience store chain Casey’s (CASY; yield 0.6%; fwd P/E 22; 2,500+ stores, mostly in rural areas; own logistics and distribution network; even offers private-label merchandise; introducing EV charging stations in high demand areas; 5th in national pizza sales; growing by acquisitions, but it itself may be a target for takeover by 7-11/SVNDY or Circle K/ATD or private-equity; pg 15).
BEARISH.
Pg 10, FUNDS. Physical/spot Bitcoin ETFs are finally here: Bitwise BITB, Fidelity FBTC, iShare IBIT, etc; giant GBTC was an uplisting from OTC to NYSE and remained the most expensive. Cryptos had run up in anticipation, but then softened. General adoption of cryptos as an asset class may take years. Coinbase/COIN is heavily involved as custodian (a low margin activity), but a concern is that these ETFs will hurt its other crypto businesses; however, CEO Brian ARMSTRONG hailed theses as a “monumental step” that will do for cryptos “what Starbucks/SBUX did for coffee”. Related ETFs are also coming – spot Ether-based (the SEC views Bitcoin and Ethereum differently), options-based, possibly leveraged. Some court cases are also pending. Vanguard is staying away from the party and isn’t allowing trading in these crypto ETFs.
Pg 30, FUNDS. ESG is less popular now – some firms are even dropping the ESG label from their funds. Top performing ESG funds in 2023 beat the SP500 handily: NWCAX, BIAWX, PARNX, PIODX (1928- ), PMVAX; tech was the driver for growth funds; the ESG funds typically have no/low weights in energy.
Pg 11. Magnificent 7 without TSLA will become an even narrower Magnificent 6; also, without AAPL and META, just Magnificent 4 (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA). But a new and more diversified Magnificent 7 may replace those 3 with BRK, UNH, V.
Pg 31, INCOME. Dividend ARISTOCRATS (ETF NOBL, etc) include AWR, EMR, PG, MMM, LOW, KO, etc. (A recent departure was WBA)
Pg 33, TECH TRADER. Report from CES 2024, LV. The big AI story from 2023 will continue in 2024. AI themes dominated the Show, and it looked like AI-everything. It may even cause a rebound in PC sales that have been slumping for 2 years. One issue will also be local computing vs cloud computing. MSFT is dropping support for W10 in 2025 and that will add to PC replacements (many older PCs cannot support W11). Beneficiaries will be PC makers LNVGY, HPQ, DELL, and chipmakers INTC, AMD, QCOM. But there will be tough competition within the industry.
Pg 62, OTHER VOICES. Christopher SMART, Arbroath Group (investment strategy consulting). Martin Luther KING would have been 95, but his life was cut short at 39. Author muses what MLK would be doing now, if alive? May be the finance industry that is held in such disrespect could learn some lessons from MLK. While the general ideas of business and finance are good, it also draws many bad players (Charles PONZI, Bernie MADOFF, etc). There is also less diversity in the financial industry. Financial leaders often look the other way when they see questionable stuff, and sometimes silence is as bad as bad people. What does the Author propose? More regulations and better pay for regulators, more meaningful corporate charitable and community programs (not just to meet some legal requirements), etc.
Pg 63, RETIREMENT. Discuss financial situation before REMARRYING. Premarital agreements may protect both parties and their descendants. Evaluate joint vs separate tax filings if there are high debts or medical bills. Alimony typically stops with remarriage. Social Security benefits may also be affected (dependent, survivor).
EXTRA. Many parents are using RETIREMENT SAVINGS to help the boomerang generation that has returned home for economic reasons. Besides higher taxes and potential IRMAA hits, this may cause problems later. One-time temporary assistance is fine, but parents must put their retirement first, set reasonable goals and deadlines for children, ask the children to share expenses.
NOTE. It’s very irritating that Barron’s has stopped mentioning TICKERS for most companies mentioned. I now have to look them up. Sometimes this takes time as there are similar names, especially for banks.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
LINK
