Post by yogibearbull on Jan 6, 2024 16:20:15 GMT
Pg 9. 2023/Q4 Earnings Season starts on FRIDAY.
PREVIEW & REVIEW (consolidated). The SEC approval of physical/spot-Bitcoin ETFs may be imminent, but a fee war has already broken out: Fidelity FBTC 0.39%, Invesco-Galaxy BTCO 0.59%, some have temporarily waived fees.
DATA THIS WEEK. Consumer credit on MONDAY; international trade deficit on TUESDAY; wholesale inventories on WEDNESDAY; Treasury budget, CPI (+3.2% yoy, core +3.8%) on THURSDAY; PPI (+1.3% yoy, core +1.9%) on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. Some VALUE stocks with GROWTH potential (BATRA, CMCSA, IBKR, IAC, MDT; from the annual list of 40 from Boyer Value Group; pg 11);
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF; fwd P/E 15.6; among top 5 SP500 stocks in 2023; turnaround that started in mid-2022 still has legs; regained “cook kid” status; target ages 20-40; brands include Hollister, etc; 33% of analysts have “buy”, 67% have “hold”; beware that fashion cycles can be tricky; pg 12);
Tesla (TSLA; it has runup a lot after 01/2023 Barron’s recommendation; both bull and bear cases are presented; recommended is trading around position, i.e. take some money off the table now, but buy more on dips; it seems that Barron’s is now neutral; pg 15).
BEARISH. Homebuilders (Group P/B 1.4; after strong 2023, much of the good news is priced in; there is new supply; long-term outlook OK, so may buy on dips; mentioned are DHI, TOL, PHM, LEN, NVR, MHO; ETF ITB; pg 13).
Pg 14. In its heyday, US Steel/X (founded in 1901 by J.P Morgan via M&A) was the largest company in the world; it also owned mining, railroads, and shippers. The early “USS” was not friendly to labor or investors (no dividends then). The antimonopoly hearings of 1911-12 left it standing. Then, it was downhill after 1940s and 1950s: It lost its top global steel producer label in 1970 (to Nippon Steel!), was booted out of DJIA in 1991, also booted out of SP500 and into S&P MC 400 in 2014. It’s now 27th bit player among global steel producers (the top producers are now in China, Europe, Japan, S Korea, India); in the US, it is #3 behind #1 NUE (it innovated with electric arc furnaces after failing in several businesses), #2 CLF (it gave up on its bid for X). Japanese Nippon Steel/NPSCY has a knockout bit for X that will make Japan #2 global steel producer, but that deal has run into some opposition.
Pg 20, Q&A. Michael LIPPERT, BIOPX / BIOTX, BTEEX / BTECX. He looks for secular growth opportunities with big themes – AI, cloud computing, digitalization, genomics, SaaS, cybersecurity, autonomous driving. He likes companies with multiple lines of business and strong management; he holds up to 50 stocks. He no longer owns AAPL, NFLX, etc.
Pg 22, ECONOMY. The current AI-hype won’t save the US economy from weak growth. While AI technology is great, its meaningful impacts on GDP, productivity, revenues and profits may take years (2030s?). AI won’t be like the past booms created by steam power, electricity, and the Internet. Moreover, the benefits of AI will be uneven, with most benefits for tech, offices, services; the labor-intensive industries (construction, landscaping, etc) may have no/little benefits. The FED is trying to slow the economy to tame the inflation. The US population is aging, and the working-age population pool is stagnant. To gauge the US economy, just keep an eye on the US consumers.
Pg 23, INCOME. Dividend income from global stocks – Europe (LGRDY), UK (RELX), even Japan (ALPMY).
Pg 24, TECH TRADER. CES 2024 in LV will be dominated by AI and other stuff – semis, gadgets, TVs, VR, streaming, robots, cars/transportation, and of course, celebrities. (There should be a post-show report later)
Pg 50, OTHER VOICES. Scotty GEORGE, Alexander Capital (investment banking, brokerage, wealth management). In these difficult markets, look for sustainable gainers than home runs. It’s hard to beat low-cost index funds. Volatility is here to stay. Many strategies work in some parts of the business cycle (i.e., nothing works forever). So, a disciplined approach is recommended. For now, he likes short-term bonds and stocks in biotech, alternative energy, infrastructure, water purification, agriculture, telecom, EMs. He has cyclical/secular bullish bias.
Pg 51, RETIREMENT. MEDICARE premiums are based on income 2 years prior (the last filed returns for most). Medicare MAGI is AGI plus muni interest. IRMAA applies in quantum jumps (i.e., it is not graduated) to Parts B & D premiums for higher income people (5 tiers). The RMDs and Roth Conversions add to taxable income, but Roth Conversions and QCDs (70.5- ) can be done ahead to reduce TIRA balances for RMDs. Use Form SSA-44 for appeals if the tax situation changes suddenly.
NOTE. It’s very irritating that Barron’s has stopped mentioning TICKERS for most companies mentioned. I now have to look them up. Sometimes this takes time as there are similar names, especially for banks.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
LINK
PREVIEW & REVIEW (consolidated). The SEC approval of physical/spot-Bitcoin ETFs may be imminent, but a fee war has already broken out: Fidelity FBTC 0.39%, Invesco-Galaxy BTCO 0.59%, some have temporarily waived fees.
DATA THIS WEEK. Consumer credit on MONDAY; international trade deficit on TUESDAY; wholesale inventories on WEDNESDAY; Treasury budget, CPI (+3.2% yoy, core +3.8%) on THURSDAY; PPI (+1.3% yoy, core +1.9%) on FRIDAY.
www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
Data This Week Link,
www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav#consensus-estimate
BULLISH. Some VALUE stocks with GROWTH potential (BATRA, CMCSA, IBKR, IAC, MDT; from the annual list of 40 from Boyer Value Group; pg 11);
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF; fwd P/E 15.6; among top 5 SP500 stocks in 2023; turnaround that started in mid-2022 still has legs; regained “cook kid” status; target ages 20-40; brands include Hollister, etc; 33% of analysts have “buy”, 67% have “hold”; beware that fashion cycles can be tricky; pg 12);
Tesla (TSLA; it has runup a lot after 01/2023 Barron’s recommendation; both bull and bear cases are presented; recommended is trading around position, i.e. take some money off the table now, but buy more on dips; it seems that Barron’s is now neutral; pg 15).
BEARISH. Homebuilders (Group P/B 1.4; after strong 2023, much of the good news is priced in; there is new supply; long-term outlook OK, so may buy on dips; mentioned are DHI, TOL, PHM, LEN, NVR, MHO; ETF ITB; pg 13).
Pg 14. In its heyday, US Steel/X (founded in 1901 by J.P Morgan via M&A) was the largest company in the world; it also owned mining, railroads, and shippers. The early “USS” was not friendly to labor or investors (no dividends then). The antimonopoly hearings of 1911-12 left it standing. Then, it was downhill after 1940s and 1950s: It lost its top global steel producer label in 1970 (to Nippon Steel!), was booted out of DJIA in 1991, also booted out of SP500 and into S&P MC 400 in 2014. It’s now 27th bit player among global steel producers (the top producers are now in China, Europe, Japan, S Korea, India); in the US, it is #3 behind #1 NUE (it innovated with electric arc furnaces after failing in several businesses), #2 CLF (it gave up on its bid for X). Japanese Nippon Steel/NPSCY has a knockout bit for X that will make Japan #2 global steel producer, but that deal has run into some opposition.
Pg 20, Q&A. Michael LIPPERT, BIOPX / BIOTX, BTEEX / BTECX. He looks for secular growth opportunities with big themes – AI, cloud computing, digitalization, genomics, SaaS, cybersecurity, autonomous driving. He likes companies with multiple lines of business and strong management; he holds up to 50 stocks. He no longer owns AAPL, NFLX, etc.
Pg 22, ECONOMY. The current AI-hype won’t save the US economy from weak growth. While AI technology is great, its meaningful impacts on GDP, productivity, revenues and profits may take years (2030s?). AI won’t be like the past booms created by steam power, electricity, and the Internet. Moreover, the benefits of AI will be uneven, with most benefits for tech, offices, services; the labor-intensive industries (construction, landscaping, etc) may have no/little benefits. The FED is trying to slow the economy to tame the inflation. The US population is aging, and the working-age population pool is stagnant. To gauge the US economy, just keep an eye on the US consumers.
Pg 23, INCOME. Dividend income from global stocks – Europe (LGRDY), UK (RELX), even Japan (ALPMY).
Pg 24, TECH TRADER. CES 2024 in LV will be dominated by AI and other stuff – semis, gadgets, TVs, VR, streaming, robots, cars/transportation, and of course, celebrities. (There should be a post-show report later)
Pg 50, OTHER VOICES. Scotty GEORGE, Alexander Capital (investment banking, brokerage, wealth management). In these difficult markets, look for sustainable gainers than home runs. It’s hard to beat low-cost index funds. Volatility is here to stay. Many strategies work in some parts of the business cycle (i.e., nothing works forever). So, a disciplined approach is recommended. For now, he likes short-term bonds and stocks in biotech, alternative energy, infrastructure, water purification, agriculture, telecom, EMs. He has cyclical/secular bullish bias.
Pg 51, RETIREMENT. MEDICARE premiums are based on income 2 years prior (the last filed returns for most). Medicare MAGI is AGI plus muni interest. IRMAA applies in quantum jumps (i.e., it is not graduated) to Parts B & D premiums for higher income people (5 tiers). The RMDs and Roth Conversions add to taxable income, but Roth Conversions and QCDs (70.5- ) can be done ahead to reduce TIRA balances for RMDs. Use Form SSA-44 for appeals if the tax situation changes suddenly.
NOTE. It’s very irritating that Barron’s has stopped mentioning TICKERS for most companies mentioned. I now have to look them up. Sometimes this takes time as there are similar names, especially for banks.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)
See Column Topics. It seems some consolidation/rearrangement of Columns is going on.
None
LINK