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Post by win1177 on Dec 18, 2023 21:50:43 GMT
Bought a “starter” position in Costco (COST) at $460 last 12/16/22. Had been watching it for a while, just incredible traffic, growth, etc. Stores tend to be PACKED with shoppers, looking for “good deals” on stuff. I had been hoping it would come down some more so I could add, but it has been like a “rocket”, nothing but higher and higher (a great “problem” to have!). Overvalued now at $681/ share. Just came out with another “special dividend” of $10/ share.
Anyone else looking to add? If so, at what price? Fair Value per Morningstar is $460/ share.
Win
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Post by bigseal on Dec 19, 2023 11:46:35 GMT
Win, great question. I have a very concentrated portfolio and am never less than 90% equities. COST was one of my three holdings but now I’ve sold it all. It was nearly 10% of my entire portfolio. Sold half near the close last Friday and the remaining fifty percent yesterday near the close. Put all the proceeds in the S&P500. Held COST twelve years and would happily buy it again if it pulls back in price. COST is never cheap and there are many good reasons for that. Could this be a mistake selling……of course. But as I get older, I only want to own a few individual stocks. Understanding a business takes time and it is time that I no longer want to spend a lot of time doing. My holdings now are the S&P500 and BRK.A shares. I’m comfortable with both. But will continue following COST, MMC, and HCA. The latter two stocks I also sold this year after holding for nearly two decades. Would buy both again at the right price.
What are you thinking?
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Post by win1177 on Dec 19, 2023 19:24:15 GMT
Win, great question. I have a very concentrated portfolio and am never less than 90% equities. COST was one of my three holdings but now I’ve sold it all. It was nearly 10% of my entire portfolio. Sold half near the close last Friday and the remaining fifty percent yesterday near the close. Put all the proceeds in the S&P500. Held COST twelve years and would happily buy it again if it pulls back in price. COST is never cheap and there are many good reasons for that. Could this be a mistake selling……of course. But as I get older, I only want to own a few individual stocks. Understanding a business takes time and it is time that I no longer want to spend a lot of time doing. My holdings now are the S&P500 and BRK.A shares. I’m comfortable with both. But will continue following COST, MMC, and HCA. The latter two stocks I also sold this year after holding for nearly two decades. Would buy both again at the right price. What are you thinking? I’d like to add some more, but not at current prices. If it fell below 500/ share, I’ll be tracking it more closely. Went to our local Costco this AM after picking up wife’s car following repairs done on the car. Costco was PACKED! Hardly any parking, basically a madhouse. The place is nearly always crowded, and people appear to be VERY loyal to Costco. But the stock has really gone up, so I’ll watch from the sidelines. I understand your reluctance with individual stock positions. I’ve wondered whether I should just put more in a low cost index, call it a day. I still feel pretty sharp cognitively (age 65), do a lot of reading, exercise, eat reasonable healthy, etc. But if I started slipping cognitively, I know my wife is NOT going to invest/ follow the markets, so it would be much easier for her to have just a few index funds with instructions to rebalance every year. Sort of starting to think maybe I should simplify things. Win |
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 19, 2023 19:28:01 GMT
Win, great question. I have a very concentrated portfolio and am never less than 90% equities. COST was one of my three holdings but now I’ve sold it all. It was nearly 10% of my entire portfolio. Sold half near the close last Friday and the remaining fifty percent yesterday near the close. Put all the proceeds in the S&P500. Held COST twelve years and would happily buy it again if it pulls back in price. COST is never cheap and there are many good reasons for that. Could this be a mistake selling……of course. But as I get older, I only want to own a few individual stocks. Understanding a business takes time and it is time that I no longer want to spend a lot of time doing. My holdings now are the S&P500 and BRK.A shares. I’m comfortable with both. But will continue following COST, MMC, and HCA. The latter two stocks I also sold this year after holding for nearly two decades. Would buy both again at the right price. What are you thinking? I’d like to add some more, but not at current prices. If it fell below 500/ share, I’ll be tracking it more closely. Went to our local Costco this AM after picking up wife’s car following repairs done on the car. Costco was PACKED! Hardly any parking, basically a madhouse. The place is nearly always crowded, and people appear to be VERY loyal to Costco. But the stock has really gone up, so I’ll watch from the sidelines. I understand your reluctance with individual stock positions. I’ve wondered whether I should just put more in a low cost index, call it a day. I still feel pretty sharp cognitively (age 65), do a lot of reading, exercise, eat reasonable healthy, etc. But if I started slipping cognitively, I know my wife is NOT going to invest/ follow the markets, so it would be much easier for her to have just a few index funds with instructions to rebalance every year. Sort of starting to think maybe I should simplify things. Win , great idea! I spent most of 2023 doing that. I have narrowed my portfolio down to just 4 funds (+ a bunch of CEFs in muni bonds; don't want to sell as sitting on paper loss). Eventually I want my entire portfolio to be less than a handful of funds. |
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Post by richardsok on Dec 20, 2023 16:07:14 GMT
Win, great question. I have a very concentrated portfolio and am never less than 90% equities. COST was one of my three holdings but now I’ve sold it all. It was nearly 10% of my entire portfolio. Sold half near the close last Friday and the remaining fifty percent yesterday near the close. Put all the proceeds in the S&P500. Held COST twelve years and would happily buy it again if it pulls back in price. COST is never cheap and there are many good reasons for that. Could this be a mistake selling……of course. But as I get older, I only want to own a few individual stocks. Understanding a business takes time and it is time that I no longer want to spend a lot of time doing. My holdings now are the S&P500 and BRK.A shares. I’m comfortable with both. But will continue following COST, MMC, and HCA. The latter two stocks I also sold this year after holding for nearly two decades. Would buy both again at the right price. What are you thinking? I’d like to add some more, but not at current prices. If it fell below 500/ share, I’ll be tracking it more closely. Went to our local Costco this AM after picking up wife’s car following repairs done on the car. Costco was PACKED! Hardly any parking, basically a madhouse. The place is nearly always crowded, and people appear to be VERY loyal to Costco. But the stock has really gone up, so I’ll watch from the sidelines. I understand your reluctance with individual stock positions. I’ve wondered whether I should just put more in a low cost index, call it a day. I still feel pretty sharp cognitively (age 65), do a lot of reading, exercise, eat reasonable healthy, etc. But if I started slipping cognitively, I know my wife is NOT going to invest/ follow the markets, so it would be much easier for her to have just a few index funds with instructions to rebalance every year. Sort of starting to think maybe I should simplify things. Win By way of contrast, on Friday I took the wife to our once-annual Xmas pilgrimage to the Palm Beach Mall to buy her the (reasonable) gift of her choice. Thence to our annual Nordstrom cafe dinner. Well, if it hadn't been for young families getting kiddie pictures taken with Santa, the whole joint would have been empty. A week before the 25th and you coulda shot a cannon down the main hall and no one's hair would have been mussed. Memo to shoppers: Did you know Palm Beach has a *gasp* thrift shop? (Better put that "thrift" in quotes.) It's run by the island's toniest-of-tony Episcopal church on Country Lane, just two blocks north of fabled Worth Avenue. Google "The Church Mouse". M-Sat 10-5. Closed Sundays. Now you know where the idle/decadent rich dump their high-end designer duds, handbags, & what-nots. The wife just discovered it. Her day was complete. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 20, 2023 16:28:06 GMT
Costco/COST has a simple model - buy good products (even branded products) in bulk and offer them under Kirkland Signature, make profits from Membership fees only, keep rest of the operations are like nonprofits. It may have perfected the warehouse-sales model. So, it's always expensive.
I have Sam's Membership, but a relative has Costco Membership. So, we go to both. Sam's is positioned more as upscale Walmart. But Costco seems much more crowded, and if you take kids along, make sure they don't get lost. It has milked its $1.50 Hot Dog promotion for all that is worth.
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Post by bigseal on Dec 20, 2023 17:33:03 GMT
Win, great question. I have a very concentrated portfolio and am never less than 90% equities. COST was one of my three holdings but now I’ve sold it all. It was nearly 10% of my entire portfolio. Sold half near the close last Friday and the remaining fifty percent yesterday near the close. Put all the proceeds in the S&P500. Held COST twelve years and would happily buy it again if it pulls back in price. COST is never cheap and there are many good reasons for that. Could this be a mistake selling……of course. But as I get older, I only want to own a few individual stocks. Understanding a business takes time and it is time that I no longer want to spend a lot of time doing. My holdings now are the S&P500 and BRK.A shares. I’m comfortable with both. But will continue following COST, MMC, and HCA. The latter two stocks I also sold this year after holding for nearly two decades. Would buy both again at the right price. What are you thinking? I’d like to add some more, but not at current prices. If it fell below 500/ share, I’ll be tracking it more closely. Went to our local Costco this AM after picking up wife’s car following repairs done on the car. Costco was PACKED! Hardly any parking, basically a madhouse. The place is nearly always crowded, and people appear to be VERY loyal to Costco. But the stock has really gone up, so I’ll watch from the sidelines. I understand your reluctance with individual stock positions. I’ve wondered whether I should just put more in a low cost index, call it a day. I still feel pretty sharp cognitively (age 65), do a lot of reading, exercise, eat reasonable healthy, etc. But if I started slipping cognitively, I know my wife is NOT going to invest/ follow the markets, so it would be much easier for her to have just a few index funds with instructions to rebalance every year. Sort of starting to think maybe I should simplify things. Win Win, we are older than you but in good health and very active physically/mentally. Had a cancer issue that I’ve been able to work through over the last four years. Seem to have that behind me. Kept active during that time with the encouragement and support my numerous doctors. Signing up for the Triple Bypass Ride in Colorado this coming July. Can drop my wife off at one her sister’s house in Denver while I go play. First invested in Costco after listening to Charlie Munger. Charlie was on Costco’s board and frequently talked about the virtues of the company. Charlie was never able to convince Warren to buy Costco. Warren has disdain for retail. I’d be happy to buy the stock again if the price drops. Love the company, but have learned to never fall in love with a stock. I read a lot of biographies, history, and economics books. Still keep close watch and read earnings reports on probably ten companies that I know quite well. Would buy a couple of those at the right price. But those stocks have run so much at this time, I prefer to simply put my money into the S&P500 until such time a specific opportunity arises. If I never buy any of those stocks, I’m fine with it. Purchased our first Berkshire shares in 1978 and never sold a single share. Would never buy a stock unless I’m comfortable with it being at least 5% of our entire portfolio. |
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Post by bigseal on Dec 20, 2023 17:45:47 GMT
Costco/ COST has a simple model - buy good products (even branded products) in bulk and offer them under Kirkland Signature, make profits from Membership fees only, keep rest of the operations are like nonprofits. It may have perfected the warehouse-sales model. So, it's always expensive. I have Sam's Membership, but a relative has Costco Membership. So, we go to both. Sam's is positioned more as upscale Walmart. But Costco seems much more crowded, and if you take kids along, make sure they don't get lost. It has milked its $1.50 Hot Dog promotion for all that is worth. Costco’s model is difficult to replicate. Roughly 4,000 carefully selected items as compared with approximately 150,000 items at Walmart. This gives Costco economies of scale and the lowest markups. The membership renewal rate is extremely high and overall membership growing. Costco has no inventory on their books. Parking spaces are 10’ wide as compared with the standard 8’9”. They treat their customers like partners. Fabulous company! |
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Post by anitya on Dec 20, 2023 19:41:34 GMT
They are expanding internationally. So, the membership and market size is increasing.
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