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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 6, 2023 16:57:50 GMT
Apparently the September jobs report was a shocker. I clicked on the silver lining teaser only to find it was shockingly strong. I remember in olden times that was good news.
Well with strikes popping up around the U.S. demanding higher wages and a succession of strong monthly job creation, it’s hard to believe inflation is coming down or the prime being reduced any time soon. Remember the military industrial complexes in several western countries are cranking out material’ for their proxy war in addition with several regimes adding more cash to their economies.
One reason recessions occur is when demand for goods and services have been met. Our VTI has been paying out larger dividends still, comparing quarter to quarter.
Anyone feel there isn’t upward pressure on inflation (plus lending rates) and any recession may be way off in the future?
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 6, 2023 17:36:24 GMT
The jobs report seems to be Ambiguous. While total employment is up and jobless claims down, most of the improvement was in the Hospitality, Bar & Restaurant sectors. These tend to be unskilled, lower paying jobs. The higher paying jobs in manufacturing, tech & finance did not expand so much. My thought is that the current administration may be processing work visas faster than in the past in an effort to relieve pressures on our southern border and fill low paying vacancies in hospitality & restaurants. Consequently, the numbers are a bit skewed. The charts I use indicate that domestic common stocks continue to consolidate, while interest rates continue to climb, and commodities continue to correct. I am holding some cash while waiting for the earnings season to come around. That should begin next week.
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Post by newtecher on Oct 6, 2023 17:41:03 GMT
It was certainly unexpected and self-contradictory. The household survey was consistent with no change in employment, which is why unemployment stayed constant at 3.8% despite the huge reported increase in employment from establishment surveys. The seasonal adjustments are pretty weird also since YoY private employment growth continues to cool down. I will wait for another one before changing my expectation of a recession before the year's end. As I posted in the inflation thread, retail gasoline prices are likely to fall hard in the next few weeks, so inflation is very likely to fall again in October (released in mid-November).
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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 6, 2023 18:31:18 GMT
The jobs report seems to be Ambiguous. While total employment is up and jobless claims down, most of the improvement was in the Hospitality, Bar & Restaurant sectors. These tend to be unskilled, lower paying jobs. The higher paying jobs in manufacturing, tech & finance did not expand so much. My thought is that the current administration may be processing work visas faster than in the past in an effort to relieve pressures on our southern border and fill low paying vacancies in hospitality & restaurants. Consequently, the numbers are a bit skewed. The charts I use indicate that domestic common stocks continue to consolidate, while interest rates continue to climb, and commodities continue to correct. I am holding some cash while waiting for the earnings season to come around. That should begin next week. Supplementing this post: 1. And unemployment stayed the same! 2. And monthly wage increases were very modest. 3. And, let's see what the "corrections version" will be a month from now. 4. And from google: Total employment, as measured by the Current Population Survey (CPS), rose by 5.4 million over the year, to 155.2 million, which was well below its prepandemic level of 158.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2019.R48
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Post by bb2 on Oct 6, 2023 19:15:28 GMT
Olden times must have been farther back than when I was a kid and flummoxed that good eco news was really bad news. This was in the early 70's.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 6, 2023 19:45:00 GMT
Olden times must have been farther back than when I was a kid and flummoxed that good eco news was really bad news. This was in the early 70's. Well wall street had a good old world response. Of course these days that lasts until the candy bar is gone. Tomorrow is another day.
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