|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 12, 2023 13:55:45 GMT
Who likes doing math? I'd like someone to check my numbers for real-time bond fund yields. I talked to two different brokers at Schwab on Friday and they were pretty much lost. The last one was supposed to get an answer and call me back Monday morning (yesterday) but I have yet to hear from him.
Neither the 30-day nor distribution yield are accurate for measuring the actual yield on your latest payout. From the description of how the SEC 30-day is calculated, I assumed it would be pretty close but it isn't -- or I'm missing something. I'll start with JMUTX, Janus Multi-Sector Income. It shows a 30-day of 4.88% and DY of 6.26%. I will use easy dollar numbers for clarity. 1,000 shares at $8.38, total dollar amount = $8,380. It pays .0536 cents per share monthly, so a $53.60 per month payout times 12 for one year = $643.20. Divide that by total holding of $8,380 = 7.7% actual yield for that month. Is this correct? If so, it's not close to either advertised yield. If my math is correct I will continue with this post, because there is much more to it, involving ETFs. |
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Sept 12, 2023 14:30:04 GMT
There are 3 DIFFERENT yields, TTM (12-mo), current distribution yield (monthly or quarterly annualized) and 30-day SEC (for standardized reporting). They aren't all the same. Moreover, the 30-day SEC yield calculation is so complicated that many funds use 3rd party services for it - it isn't DIY stuff.
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 12, 2023 14:38:39 GMT
There are 3 DIFFERENT yields, TTM (12-mo), current distribution yield (monthly or quarterly annualized) and 30-day SEC (for standardized reporting). They aren't all the same. Moreover, the 30-day SEC yield calculation is so complicated that many funds use 3rd party services for it - it isn't DIY stuff. I addressed all that. |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Sept 12, 2023 14:38:59 GMT
Let's keep it simpler. I don't pay attention to sec 30-day, only to actual monthly divs. Based on the attachment. On 8/31...div=0.0536...NAV=8.43. (0.0536 / 8.54) * 100 = 0.0635% per month. If you multiply by 12 and you get 7.6% per year. You can see that the div are fluctuating. On 7/31...div=0.043...NAV=8.49 = 0.5% monthly = 6% annually. There is a chance someone will post that 0.5% a month is more than 6% per year because of compounding. I look at the big picture, no need to be 100% accurate. So, make a guesstimation of 6.5-7%. Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 12, 2023 14:49:11 GMT
Let's keep it simpler. I don't pay attention to sec 30-day, only to actual monthly divs. |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Sept 12, 2023 15:36:46 GMT
Our numbers are close, about 7.6-7%
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 12, 2023 19:14:25 GMT
Our numbers are close, about 7.6-7% Ok thanks FD. I just wanted to make sure my method was correct.
I wonder why nobody even posts that number?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 12, 2023 23:42:43 GMT
There are 3 DIFFERENT yields, TTM (12-mo), current distribution yield (monthly or quarterly annualized) and 30-day SEC (for standardized reporting). They aren't all the same. Moreover, the 30-day SEC yield calculation is so complicated that many funds use 3rd party services for it - it isn't DIY stuff. The current distribution yield is mostly worthless for many funds. Funds like PTIAX and RSIIX have distributions that vary quite a lot each month. That leaves TTM as the best to use in my book. SEC 30 day is a "future indicator" only, to me. |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Sept 12, 2023 23:51:22 GMT
IMO, the last several months of distributions are the best guestimation. Several funds I have watched had a nice increase within a year.
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 13, 2023 3:13:26 GMT
IMO, the last several months of distributions are the best guestimation. Several funds I have watched had a nice increase within a year. Agree, but I'm still curious as to why that number is never shown and we have to do the math ourselves. It's pretty basic, and something I would think anyone would want to know. |
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 13, 2023 10:55:56 GMT
IMO, the last several months of distributions are the best guestimation. Several funds I have watched had a nice increase within a year. Agree, but I'm still curious as to why that number is never shown and we have to do the math ourselves. It's pretty basic, and something I would think anyone would want to know. In the case of RSIIX, for instance, July distribution was $0.0868 @ $8.56 (12.1% annual). August was $0.0497 @ $8.58 (6.95% annual). The 12 month TTM is 8.21% and the SEC 30-day is 9.12%. What makes sense to use? I am getting 8.21% trending up towards 9.12%. If a person wants to know a fairly precise number, buy PIMIX. The distribution doesn't change monthly but the NAV does. |
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Sept 13, 2023 11:45:53 GMT
Current-yields (Monthly or quarterly distributions annualized) can be misleading in ads & brochures - they can be outdated by the time ads roll off the press. It is a very simple number to calculate DIY, so investors can do just that by themselves. No surprise that Broozer and FD1000 could match their arithmetic on this. TTM (12-mo) is also misleading because it is something that a buyer 12 months ago bought and has little relevance to what a buyer may get now, especially with changing rates. The 30-day SEC yield is a standardized YTM that is REQUIRED so that a fair comparison can be made; BTW, fund YTM alone is a vague concept, so the SEC uses a standardized method. Fund ads cannot mention any other yield without mentioning 30-day SEC yield. It is also the potential future TR that a buyer today can expect - no guarantees. Its prescribed calculation is complex and it has some well-known flaws. ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/701/threadM* provides only TTM and 30-day SEC yield, and doesn't bother with current-yield. Many funds show current-yields on their websites. |
|
|
|
Post by archer on Sept 13, 2023 15:40:39 GMT
Broozer, I've been wondering the same. I noticed my JEPI divs divided by total value is quite different than the yield Fidelity states when I look at "Dividend View" of my PF for JEPI.
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 13, 2023 20:38:23 GMT
Current-yields (Monthly or quarterly distributions annualized) can be misleading in ads & brochures - they can be outdated by the time ads roll off the press. It is a very simple number to calculate DIY, so investors can do just that by themselves. No surprise that Broozer and FD1000 could match their arithmetic on this. TTM (12-mo) is also misleading because it is something that a buyer 12 months ago bought and has little relevance to what a buyer may get now, especially with changing rates. The 30-day SEC yield is a standardized YTM that is REQUIRED so that a fair comparison can be made; BTW, fund YTM alone is a vague concept, so the SEC uses a standardized method. Fund ads cannot mention any other yield without mentioning 30-day SEC yield. It is also the potential future TR that a buyer today can expect - no guarantees. Its prescribed calculation is complex and it has some well-known flaws. ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/701/threadM* provides only TTM and 30-day SEC yield, and doesn't bother with current-yield. Many funds show current-yields on their websites.Yes, I knew the 30-day yields were required and they are okay for comparing fund vs. fund, but not much else. I think Schwab gets all their data from Mstar -- right? Which would be why Schwab only has the 30-day and DY. I'd never checked the fund's actual sites, but will spot check a few to see if their yield is close to my and FD's math, which you agree with. I had about 19-20% of my retirement PF with ISTB as a fairly stable core holding, which holds a 1-5 year chunk out of the total bond market. The 30-day currently shows 5.08% and the DY is 2.61%. But if you do the math via cents per share, last month's annualized yield was 3% (2.97% actual).
So I switched that over to Schwab's money fund which is paying about 5.2% and of course no price volatility. I'm not trying to squeeze every last penny of income out of my PF, but earning 5.2% vs. 3% and no volatility is a no-brainer -- for the time being anyway. Thanks to all for the help.  |
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 14, 2023 1:18:07 GMT
Current-yields (Monthly or quarterly distributions annualized) can be misleading in ads & brochures - they can be outdated by the time ads roll off the press. It is a very simple number to calculate DIY, so investors can do just that by themselves. No surprise that Broozer and FD1000 could match their arithmetic on this. TTM (12-mo) is also misleading because it is something that a buyer 12 months ago bought and has little relevance to what a buyer may get now, especially with changing rates. The 30-day SEC yield is a standardized YTM that is REQUIRED so that a fair comparison can be made; BTW, fund YTM alone is a vague concept, so the SEC uses a standardized method. Fund ads cannot mention any other yield without mentioning 30-day SEC yield. It is also the potential future TR that a buyer today can expect - no guarantees. Its prescribed calculation is complex and it has some well-known flaws. ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/701/threadM* provides only TTM and 30-day SEC yield, and doesn't bother with current-yield. Many funds show current-yields on their websites.Yes, I knew the 30-day yields were required and they are okay for comparing fund vs. fund, but not much else. I think Schwab gets all their data from Mstar -- right? Which would be why Schwab only has the 30-day and DY. I'd never checked the fund's actual sites, but will spot check a few to see if their yield is close to my and FD's math, which you agree with. I had about 19-20% of my retirement PF with ISTB as a fairly stable core holding, which holds a 1-5 year chunk out of the total bond market. The 30-day currently shows 5.08% and the DY is 2.61%. But if you do the math via cents per share, last month's annualized yield was 3% (2.97% actual).
So I switched that over to Schwab's money fund which is paying about 5.2% and of course no price volatility. I'm not trying to squeeze every last penny of income out of my PF, but earning 5.2% vs. 3% and no volatility is a no-brainer -- for the time being anyway. Thanks to all for the help. The fund companies have an advantage you don't. They know when individual bonds mature, when they sell one for a gain or loss and how much each bond yields. They can be much more accurate on current yields. |
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 14, 2023 2:41:47 GMT
The fund companies have an advantage you don't. They know when individual bonds mature, when they sell one for a gain or loss and how much each bond yields. They can be much more accurate on current yields. I guess the point of this thread, boiled down to two sentences is this: The posted 30-day and DY are pretty worthless. If you want to know what percent you actually earned on it last month, you have to do the math with the posted cents per share. I don't really care about .1 or .2% differences, but I would like to know within 1-2%, which you can't tell from their numbers. I looked at the websites of the two funds I mentioned previously (per Yogi's tip), ISTB, and JMUTX.iShares only shows the 30-day yield (5.17%), the 12 month trailing yield [2.7%] (which I assume is the same thing as the "Distribution Yield"), and the "Average yield to maturity (5.54%)." My calculated yield for last month, per my previous math, was 2.97%.
Janus shows the "30-day yield" at 5.03%, and the "Distribution yield at NAV for the previous month" at 7.76%. My calculated yield for last month was 7.7%, so close enough.
|
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Sept 14, 2023 10:56:57 GMT
Broozer,
You made several good points I agree with.
1) I have been using Schwab MM since early 2022 when I'm out of the market. They pay nicely without volatility.
2) I have calculated yield of bond funds within their last several months for years. It's the closest to reality.
3) 0.1-0.3% annually difference is meaningless.
|
|
comlb
Lieutenant
Posts: 67
|
Post by comlb on Sept 14, 2023 11:28:28 GMT
the number that is more useful, but even harder to calculate is the going forward portfolio yield and duration. When you can calculate it, it gives you a more realistic idea of what to expect in the future.
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 14, 2023 12:32:25 GMT
Broozer, You made several good points I agree with. 1) I have been using Schwab MM since early 2022 when I'm out of the market. They pay nicely without volatility. 2) I have calculated yield of bond funds within their last several months for years. It's the closest to reality. 3) 0.1-0.3% annually difference is meaningless. I've had a separate MM taxable account with Schwab for years with check writing -- the one I noted above is within my SEP -- and since Schwab's been paying 4% or more the past year, I've been keeping more money in it rather in my local bank checking account that pays nothing.
5%+ in a money market! Back to the good old days. 70% of my PF is in bonds so I don't complain about high interest rates like my two lunch buddies; I'm loaning money -- not borrowing it. But they both have gov't retirements so they don't understand anything about what I'm doing. I avoid the subject because they are so clueless.
When I get time I'm going to calculate my real returns on the three CE bond funds I have.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 14, 2023 12:52:03 GMT
I posted previously about the distribution for July and August that RSIIX provided. What good is knowing July was 12% and August was 6%? Would you buy more in July and sell all in August?
Many times the yield of a bond fund is useless. The NAV and distr. fluctuates so what I want to see is how many dollars (TR) it has generated. RSIIX has made 5.4% for me in 8 months (on track to make 8% excluding the December CG), which is close to the 8.2% TTM.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 14, 2023 13:48:31 GMT
Broozer, You made several good points I agree with. 1) I have been using Schwab MM since early 2022 when I'm out of the market. They pay nicely without volatility. 2) I have calculated yield of bond funds within their last several months for years. It's the closest to reality. 3) 0.1-0.3% annually difference is meaningless. I've had a separate MM taxable account with Schwab for years with check writing -- the one I noted above is within my SEP -- and since Schwab's been paying 4% or more the past year, I've been keeping more money in it rather in my local bank checking account that pays nothing.
5%+ in a money market! Back to the good old days. 70% of my PF is in bonds so I don't complain about high interest rates like my two lunch buddies; I'm loaning money -- not borrowing it. But they both have gov't retirements so they don't understand anything about what I'm doing. I avoid the subject because they are so clueless.
When I get time I'm going to calculate my real returns on the three CE bond funds I have.
"return" is not yield. It is easy to set up on an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the monthy yield. Input the Distribution and NAV at the distribution price. D/NAV = monthly yield. Total them for 12 months and add the latest month and drop the oldest month and you have a rolling return. I am not sure if the published TTN yields are calendar year or rolling year. |
|
comlb
Lieutenant
Posts: 67
|
Post by comlb on Sept 14, 2023 16:33:15 GMT
imagine complaining about interest rates at 5%!
what you mean incannot borrow money for free at the lowest rates in recorded history forever?
|
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 15, 2023 0:07:42 GMT
I posted previously about the distribution for July and August that RSIIX provided. What good is knowing July was 12% and August was 6%? Would you buy more in July and sell all in August? Many times the yield of a bond fund is useless. The NAV and distr. fluctuates so what I want to see is how many dollars (TR) it has generated. RSIIX has made 5.4% for me in 8 months (on track to make 8% excluding the December CG), which is close to the 8.2% TTM. I don't jump in and out of holdings; I'm mostly a buy and holder as long as it's doing what I expect. I don't panic when asset prices drop, especially now that I'm retired and am more interested in income. Although half or more of my RMDs get re-invested. |
|
|
|
Post by Broozer on Sept 15, 2023 0:12:40 GMT
I've had a separate MM taxable account with Schwab for years with check writing -- the one I noted above is within my SEP -- and since Schwab's been paying 4% or more the past year, I've been keeping more money in it rather in my local bank checking account that pays nothing.
5%+ in a money market! Back to the good old days. 70% of my PF is in bonds so I don't complain about high interest rates like my two lunch buddies; I'm loaning money -- not borrowing it. But they both have gov't retirements so they don't understand anything about what I'm doing. I avoid the subject because they are so clueless.
When I get time I'm going to calculate my real returns on the three CE bond funds I have.
"return" is not yield. It is easy to set up on an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the monthy yield. Input the Distribution and NAV at the distribution price. D/NAV = monthly yield. Total them for 12 months and add the latest month and drop the oldest month and you have a rolling return. I am not sure if the published TTN yields are calendar year or rolling year. Yeah I used the wrong term -- should be yield. I got the math down, and I don't need anything fancier than the calculator on my phone. And it's something I might check every quarter, certainly no sooner than that.
Seems a lot of people put in a whole lot of work in this, to what end I'm not sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Sept 15, 2023 1:36:28 GMT
Broozer: “Seems a lot of people put in a whole lot of work in this, to what end I'm not sure.” I put no work into it. I go with TTM yield and see that the 30-day yield tells me the trend up or down.
|
|
