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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 28, 2023 11:55:54 GMT
This FT article predicts a tailwind for risk assets for next several years. It normally is behind a paywall but I was able to browse (not sure how). I am pasting a few excerpts here: " Our estimates show that the liquidity cycle bottomed during October 2022, in the wake of former UK prime minister Liz Truss’s “mini” Budget debacle, and looks set to trend higher over the next few years. Investors should therefore expect a continuing tail wind from global liquidity instead of last year’s severe headwinds. This should prove good for stocks, but less positive for bond investors." " The integrity of banks and sovereign bond markets are sacrosanct in modern finance. Led by the US Federal Reserve, central banks have just injected substantial cash into money markets over recent months helping to bailout flaky banks. But in coming years they will probably have to bailout debt-burdened governments, too. In short, markets need ever more central bank liquidity for financial stability and governments will need it even more for fiscal stability. In a world of excessive debt, large central bank balance sheets are a necessity. So, forget QT, quantitative easing is coming back. The pool of global liquidity — which we estimate to be about $170bn — is not going to shrink significantly any time soon." Now you all have read the memo so go invest every penny you got in stocks
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 28, 2023 11:58:42 GMT
Commodities might do better than stocks.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 29, 2023 2:46:42 GMT
Commodities might do better than stocks. I am getting worried with the top 7 or 10 companies in S&P500 doing most of the rallying. I need to rethink whether I want to stay in market cap indexes (which are exclusively my way of owning equities right now). Also, I am not sure I buy the FT story of liquidity being supported by the central banks. Something does not compute.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 29, 2023 12:18:55 GMT
Commodities might do better than stocks. I am getting worried with the top 7 or 10 companies in S&P500 doing most of the rallying. I need to rethink whether I want to stay in market cap indexes (which are exclusively my way of owning equities right now). Also, I am not sure I buy the FT story of liquidity being supported by the central banks. Something does not compute. The S&P small cap & mid cap indexes have begun to move up and the CRB index appears to have found a bottom. These index moves indicate that the market advances is broadening, consequently my thought is that it is too late to worry about the narrow advance of the large cap indexes. I am enjoying the ride. Added by Edit; Having said that, the 1st qtr GDP report has been revised up to a growth rate of 2% and jobless claims have just been reported to have declined in the latest report, so it sounds like another fed rate increase has been baked into the cake.
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