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Post by Chahta on Jun 20, 2023 13:30:51 GMT
Peter Lynch was the guru when I got into investing. Interesting article and still the guy without a big ego. I am curious about those that buy stocks here. How much research do you do?
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Post by steelpony10 on Jun 20, 2023 17:11:19 GMT
Chahta , Magellan fund, FMAGX, trails VOO and VTI since 2010. PRWCX is even worse. Maybe indexes chased away the good managers. Our 3 remaining stocks are AAPL and MSFT from the late 80’s plus AMZN from 2009-10. Holding the suppliers of the gold rush not the companies that could fade over time. Current examples might be something like V and MA the last 2 we eliminated. I originally developed a list from all the successful OEF growth funds of the time looking for cap gains income and whittled it down to 10 (Including INTC, HD, MCD, UNH, WMT, V, MA) eventually reducing that to our last three as we achieved our investing goals. .
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Post by roi2020 on Jun 20, 2023 18:29:22 GMT
Good article.
Peter Lynch's record while managing Magellan was incredible!
He showed good judgement by quitting while "still on top" (unlike Bill Miller).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2023 18:35:47 GMT
Future stock performance resembles Chaos theory to me. Unpredictable. There is a version called "Deterministic Chaos" where one believes there are patterns and repetition. I periodically choose 5 stocks that have superior fundamentals and are a genre that is currently in demand. I simply look for trading range repetition among these. I seldom find any but if I do I act accordingly. The sell is preceded buy a tight stop loss near the high. I have only one company currently that fits my criteria. Just sold it and set to buy again. At my age I like investments that simply have a long term (30 years) positive least squares fit and they are the indices. That's where most of my money is. I know I am unsophisticated so be gentle.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jun 20, 2023 22:56:09 GMT
@axe ,
Ha. Ha. The key for the youngins is to start before our age. As I stated as far as equities I’ve backed mostly into VTI. For us it’s for ages 85 and beyond, in my dreams anyway.
Peter Lynch learned by caddying for the super rich before he became famous. There was a poster called Limoman a ways back who learned while driving the well off.
I learned a lot from acquaintances parents many who were in investment clubs after WWII.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 21, 2023 4:03:58 GMT
Chahta,...Thanks for link on Lynch. What I remember most is his writing that only about 3 or 4 stocks separated him from the other fund managers, putting him on top. Further, when he got a good stock ( a ten bagger was his goal on all purchases), his modus operandi was to buy more...BUY MORE.. .BUY MORE. He did not sell to "take profits." He used momentum to his advantage I note Lynch was about my age; I listened to him speak in person a few times when he was younger. We "retired" at about the same time, 30 years ago...he at age 46! BTW 55 years ago I adopted an investment profile of investing only in no-load mutual funds; NO INDIVIDUAL STOCKS. Have not bought such a stock since. Thus I spend zero time/research assessing individual stocks. And for those who do, what is your hourly employment job work-rate in dollars? For each stock you research and don't buy (or do buy), are you counting this hourly rate as wasted time/effort? Life is short! R48...getting close to 30 years since retirement date!
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Post by mnfish on Jun 21, 2023 10:59:25 GMT
retiredat48, "his modus operandi was to buy more...BUY MORE...BUY MORE. He did not sell to "take profits." He used momentum to his advantage" Peter Lynch quote from the article - "You learn a lot. I was probably right six times out of 10, maybe six and a half. But the times the stock went down, if the story was good, I would buy more." I'm sure the Magellan Fund paid capital gains while he managed it so he must have sold something.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 21, 2023 11:14:44 GMT
I remember his stock picking style was "to kick the tires so to speak, to visit the businesses, to watch parking lots" etc.
One (among many) he used as an example was La Quinta Inn in his writings where he stayed there once and got strong conviction about its earnings prospects.
I stopped buying individual stocks at least a decade ago, and I hold none at this time.
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Post by Fearchar on Jun 21, 2023 11:41:30 GMT
Chahta,...Thanks for link on Lynch. BTW 55 years ago I adopted an investment profile of investing only in no-load mutual funds; NO INDIVIDUAL STOCKS. Have not bought such a stock since. Thus I spend zero time/research assessing individual stocks. And for those who do, what is your hourly employment job work-rate in dollars? For each stock you research and don't buy (or do buy), are you counting this hourly rate as wasted time/effort? Life is short! R48...getting close to 30 years since retirement date! My Mom owns several individual stocks. SPGI and CBU for over 50 years. Originally as their predecessor companies. DE and BRK are newer but both have been held for over a decade. My Mom talks about them occasionally and especially about CBU....the talk is as if she owns our local bank. Of course she likes to joke too. Anyhow, while CBU has not been a great stock, the others have been. Besides that the unrealized cap gains are huge. Mom does not research these stocks. I follow them, but it is not overly time consuming. |
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Post by mnfish on Jun 21, 2023 12:02:48 GMT
I like to buy individual stocks and they are most of my portfolio. I usually start with an article I read about either a stock or a good active mutual fund and I'll research what that fund has for it's top holdings. Then go to Wells, Fidelity and Mstar to see if they have research on the stock and see if there is a consensus one way or the other. I personally pay attention to to PE, PEG, Current Ratio, Debt/Asset Ratio and Net Margin. Cash Flow is important also but I rather it came from profits rather than debt. I've also found that it's easier to buy a stock than it is to sell one but as I get older I'm not as afraid to realize a gain as I used to be. As far as what my time is worth, I don't have much else to do from 5am until my morning 4 mile walk with the dog at 8am. So, I gather that retiredat48 values his spare time, at his age, on an hourly basis? |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 21, 2023 15:23:19 GMT
retiredat48 , "his modus operandi was to buy more...BUY MORE...BUY MORE. He did not sell to "take profits." He used momentum to his advantage" Peter Lynch quote from the article - "You learn a lot. I was probably right six times out of 10, maybe six and a half. But the times the stock went down, if the story was good, I would buy more." I'm sure the Magellan Fund paid capital gains while he managed it so he must have sold something. ,...Hi. I don't consider this inconsistent with buying more...and more. Lynch bought the dips...or out-of-favor declines. I add to holdings the same way. Sure the fund had cap gains; selling off some holdings for various reasons. But analysis of his portfolio over the years showed his top five performing holding were rarely sold. And price gains alone added to the invested capital in such top stocks...as well as new money buying in on the dips. BTW Magellan typically had inflows...massive inflows at the end. I consider it a factor in why Lynch retired. His predecessor did poorly. R48 |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 21, 2023 15:39:48 GMT
As far as what my time is worth, I don't have much else to do from 5am until my morning 4 mile walk with the dog at 8am. So, I gather that retiredat48 values his spare time, at his age, on an hourly basis? No. Not my spare time. And when retired it is all spare time. I spend a lot of time on the forums...but this is pro-bono giving, trying to help others. I probably spend too little time on my own portfolio. I also made this stuff my "hobby" at age 22. I spend too much time. But I suggest others should consider how much time they put towards investing, as a factor in adopting an investment style. You can get carried away spending lots of time, getting no-where. An anecdote... In my FL golfing community (I live on a golf course) there was a gentleman friend retired here from NY. He personally owned a seat on the NY Stock Exchange...and a golfer. But we could not get him to join us in golf. Rather, he spent his entire days on the computer, making trades on the NYSE. After a year, he said he made over a million dollars trading. We didn't doubt him. But it begs the question...are you retired, or not? If one is spending many hours daily on this stuff, would you be better rewarded if you simply continued your previous line of employment...part time? My time is priceless, as in: I can hit a golfing five iron well; certain Saudi big-wigs would give a million dollars to be able to hit a five iron. Thus, priceless! Good day. R48 |
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Post by gman57 on Jun 21, 2023 18:46:00 GMT
As far as what my time is worth, I don't have much else to do from 5am until my morning 4 mile walk with the dog at 8am. So, I gather that retiredat48 values his spare time, at his age, on an hourly basis? No. Not my spare time. And when retired it is all spare time. I spend a lot of time on the forums...but this is pro-bono giving, trying to help others. I probably spend too little time on my own portfolio. I also made this stuff my "hobby" at age 22. I spend too much time. But I suggest others should consider how much time they put towards investing, as a factor in adopting an investment style. You can get carried away spending lots of time, getting no-where. An anecdote... In my FL golfing community (I live on a golf course) there was a gentleman friend retired here from NY. He personally owned a seat on the NY Stock Exchange...and a golfer. But we could not get him to join us in golf. Rather, he spent his entire days on the computer, making trades on the NYSE. After a year, he said he made over a million dollars trading. We didn't doubt him. But it begs the question...are you retired, or not? If one is spending many hours daily on this stuff, would you be better rewarded if you simply continued your previous line of employment...part time? My time is priceless, as in: I can hit a golfing five iron well; certain Saudi big-wigs would give a million dollars to be able to hit a five iron. Thus, priceless! Good day. R48 Yes, but I'd imagine if you asked him if he would have more fun trading or golfing his answer would be trading. He's probably doing what he loves the most..... like you. |
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