Checking in with all of you.

[kathiel]

Hello friends,

I haven't been here for a while, so I thought I'd check in.  

I haven't been doing much in terms of my portfolio until this week.  A few of my stocks have appreciated enough that they account for more than 5% of my portfolio.  So I have sold small slices of a couple of stocks.  The next thing I need to decide is whether to sell a slice of my Apple stock.  Right now, I'm going to wait and watch how Apple moves.

I do stop by and read what you have written.  

I keep reading what various analysts have to say, mostly for entertainment value (as steelpony says).  

Good luck to all of you!

[Chahta]

Jun 17, 2023 1:03:33 GMT kathiel said:

Hello friends,

I haven't been here for a while, so I thought I'd check in.  

I haven't been doing much in terms of my portfolio until this week.  A few of my stocks have appreciated enough that they account for more than 5% of my portfolio.  So I have sold small slices of a couple of stocks.  The next thing I need to decide is whether to sell a slice of my Apple stock.  Right now, I'm going to wait and watch how Apple moves.

I do stop by and read what you have written.  

I keep reading what various analysts have to say, mostly for entertainment value (as steelpony says).  

Good luck to all of you!

I realize that holding too much of a single stock is not good while trying to be diversified. But my thought is to let that winner run a bit if you can. JMO.

[steelpony10]

kathiel ,

     October 29th is National Cat Day. Maybe direct some of your trimmings toward a gift for your investment consultant shone in the picture. Meaning resupply your dry powder and purchase some gourmet kibble. I bought my granddaughter a nice necklace before she hooks up with some high school scumbag and I become just a memory, hopefully pleasant.

      My personal opinion with T, Putin and inflation still around plus the coming crazy year in 2024 this may just be a short lived bear market rally, nothing has been solved yet really. So you can trim AAPL to add to your trimmings and deploy the funds elsewhere or wait. You probably have a watch list and some laggards. If you don’t need added income plan for next year.

      All my info comes from grandma’s cracked crystal ball and her deerskin bag of animal bones, old world “charting”. What’s Fluffy’s take?

[kathiel]

"Fluffy's" name is Camille. She agrees that I should hang on to the Apple for a while longer. She knows I have some small amounts of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Tesla purchased last summer, but thinks I should also wait on those. She doesn't eat kibble, prefers lobster.

[steelpony10]

Jun 18, 2023 1:59:43 GMT kathiel said:

"Fluffy's" name is Camille. She agrees that I should hang on to the Apple for a while longer. She knows I have some small amounts of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Tesla purchased last summer, but thinks I should also wait on those. She doesn't eat kibble, prefers lobster.

kathiel ,

        Somehow that all makes perfect sense although I was thinking fresh salmon.

[bb2]

I feed a feral cat colony and volunteer moving furniture with my pickup to a cat rescue thrift store, so yes, qualify as a crazy cat guy. I didn't confer with my 4 cats at home about Apple but at 10%, (I should have listened when they said buy Chewy, god knows, I have inside information on their sales numbers), I shaved down to 9 last week. Joanna Stern, WSJ had a positive review on the goggles but Scott Galloway had a pretty convincing argument as to why they will never be a hit, not that the goggles are important at this point. Holding all else, including big tech. FWIW, AAPL PT's are pretty much all over 200, far as I can tell.

[kathiel]

Here's the story about Camille and Lobster:

I got Camille from a breeder in Connecticut. The breeder and her daughter drove Camille to Logan Airport in Boston so they could put her on a non-stop flight to Seattle.  Camille was 4 months old. As they were leaving the check-in counter, they heard a mournful cry. They looked behind the counter, wanting to speak to her and comfort the lonely kitten. They saw that her carrier was atop crates of live lobsters, and Camille was trying to reach them with her paw.

The breeder asked that I give Camille some lobster when we ate lobster. So every time we had lobster, Camille got some too.

She does like fresh salmon, which we have with some frequency, but lobster is more special.

[Deleted]

I think now there are two kind of investors:
1. Who stayed invested with their desired AA during 2022 decline. They are doing fine now.
2. Who moved to (some or a lot of) cash from their desired stock allocation. How to get back to desired equity allocation after such a rally?
(on positive side, cash is earning 5%)

[steelpony10]

@waffle2 ,

         1. Some added to their income in 2022. I don’t have any excuses (allocation) to making more income and I know a sale when I see one after 44 years of investing.

          2. People that time the market have to be back someday. Buy and holders never have that problem. Starting at DOW 750, I did great is all I need to know including in 2022.

           Cash will always be trash but you need some for sales and pending purchases. We keep from 5-10% cash around. Inflation doesn’t affect areas evenly so some may be losing more (or less) purchasing power then they realize. Add in taxes on 5% and I can’t label cash as anything but a necessary evil no matter what the yield.

            With inflation not solved yet, adding in China, a coming crazy election year plus throw in the wall of woe (like Rocket Man) and future unknowns I’m not sure anything is over yet. Those conditions just prolong this market sale for most. Of course maybe it was all just a worldwide market slowdown with a special military operation thrown in. One can hope. 🤞🏼

[mnfish]

Jun 19, 2023 21:50:46 GMT @waffle2 said:

I think now there are two kind of investors:
1. Who stayed invested with their desired AA during 2022 decline. They are doing fine now.
2. Who moved to (some or a lot of) cash from their desired stock allocation. How to get back to desired equity allocation after such a rally?
(on positive side, cash is earning 5%)

Maybe it's just me but my bond funds are not "doing fine now" other than a little bit higher interest payment. What has to happen for a bond funds' price to come back 15%? And how long will it take?

[Deleted]

I do not invest in bonds so I did not realize bonds did not recover as equity did this year so far.

[kathiel]

I also do not invest In bonds.I have purchased a couple of cds this year, and I opened a high-interest savings account, so I have managed to get my cash to work for me.

[mikes425]

Jun 20, 2023 12:07:10 GMT mnfish said:

Jun 19, 2023 21:50:46 GMT @waffle2 said:

Maybe it's just me but my bond funds are not "doing fine now" other than a little bit higher interest payment. What has to happen for a bond funds' price to come back 15%? And how long will it take?

mnfish, It's not just you and I basically have the same question and frustration.

Other than the slightly improved interest rate, NAV losses have continued just not at severely as last year -
for every bond fund I have - and that's ultra short and short term - Treasury, Corp., Floating Rate, TIPS.  Other than the Bond Rule of holding long enough to eventually get back to even...not a whole lot to be thrilled about, and as for being 'ballast' offsetting equity downturn...they're barely doing that either. 

[Chahta]

mnfish , @waffle2 , mikes425 . Depends on which funds. I have several doing OK for me. The core/core plus are still suffering. Interest rates will need to start heading down I think for those funds to get going. However they are still up YTD in the 3% TR range. To me if you have a positive cost basis then things are good to collect interest payments. I bought mine last year as low as I could. I am not sure one should expect to make a killing in bond funds. One must opportunistic and buy low or keep reinvesting divs to get a lower cost basis. They are for income, IMHO.

Now bond CEFs are another altogether.

steelpony10 , cash will never be trash as long as the MM funds are close to 5%.

[mnfish]

To be fair, I own and have owned some dividend stocks that are down that much or more but continue to hold for the income.

Currently my Portfolio income yield is now 3% (all my cash is not in MM) after some profit taking and reinvesting in a Money Market fund.
Stock dividends provide 40% of that income. Stocks are 60% of the portfolio.
Bond funds provide 15% of that income. Bonds are 9% of the portfolio.
Money markets provide 45% of that income. Money markets/cash are 31% of the portfolio.

Oops. Corrections in red

[Chahta]

Jun 22, 2023 12:50:53 GMT mnfish said:

To be fair, I own and have owned some dividend stocks that are down that much or more but continue to hold for the income.

Currently my Portfolio income yield is now 4% after some profit taking and reinvesting in a Money Market fund.
Stock dividends provide 33% of that income. Stocks are 60% of the portfolio.
Bond funds provide 32% of that income. Bonds are 9% of the portfolio.
Money markets provide 34% of that income. Money markets/cash are 31% of the portfolio.

Interesting that 9% bonds can provide 32% of the income.

[Fearchar]

Jun 22, 2023 12:50:53 GMT mnfish said:

To be fair, I own and have owned some dividend stocks that are down that much or more but continue to hold for the income.

Currently my Portfolio income yield is now 4% after some profit taking and reinvesting in a Money Market fund.
Stock dividends provide 33% of that income. Stocks are 60% of the portfolio.
Bond funds provide 32% of that income. Bonds are 9% of the portfolio.
Money markets provide 34% of that income. Money markets/cash are 31% of the portfolio.

I agree with Chahta.
Are these high yield bonds or leveraged CEFs? They will provide lots of income. But with probably a lot more risk too. Sometimes risk is good of course, but not always.

[win1177]

Like others have said, bonds should not be looked at for a lot of capital appreciation. If you time it right, you may get some but I always consider that a “bonus”. Bonds are there for steady income as well as “shock absorbers for when the equity market “falls out of bed”. I’m usually happy when my bonds are paying me enough to keep up with inflation.

I’ve never been a “big” bond investor, pretty much always very heavy with equity and enough cash to provide liquidity. Fortunately, our heavy equity position has resulted in a very nice sized portfolio now, so staying invested. Partly because we would pay HUGE capital gains if we sold some of our equities (AAPL, MSFT, JNJ, BRK.B, etc.) We’re about 80% equity, 3% bonds, rest is cash. SLOWLY adding to bonds now to capture higher rates in longer terms, mainly for the income.

Win

[liftlock]

Jun 22, 2023 12:55:29 GMT Chahta said:

Jun 22, 2023 12:50:53 GMT mnfish said:

To be fair, I own and have owned some dividend stocks that are down that much or more but continue to hold for the income.

Currently my Portfolio income yield is now 4% after some profit taking and reinvesting in a Money Market fund.
Stock dividends provide 33% of that income. Stocks are 60% of the portfolio.
Bond funds provide 32% of that income. Bonds are 9% of the portfolio.
Money markets provide 34% of that income. Money markets/cash are 31% of the portfolio.

Interesting that 9% bonds can provide 32% of the income.

Makes me wonder whether those bonds carry equity market like risk.

[Chahta]

Jun 22, 2023 12:50:53 GMT mnfish said:

To be fair, I own and have owned some dividend stocks that are down that much or more but continue to hold for the income.

Currently my Portfolio income yield is now 3% (all my cash is not in MM) after some profit taking and reinvesting in a Money Market fund.
Stock dividends provide 40% of that income. Stocks are 60% of the portfolio.
Bond funds provide 15% of that income. Bonds are 9% of the portfolio.
Money markets provide 45% of that income. Money markets/cash are 31% of the portfolio.

Oops. Corrections in red

I was kind of jealous for a while.

My yield is 3.7%, 46% equities, 46% bonds, 8% MM.

[mikes425]

Jun 22, 2023 17:14:49 GMT Chahta said:

I was kind of jealous for a while.

My yield is 3.7%, 46% equities, 46% bonds, 8% MM.

About the same YTD here with roughly the equivalent AA..well, a few percent more in bond fund and less in MM.  

[mikes425]

Jun 22, 2023 14:37:43 GMT win1177 said:

Like others have said, bonds should not be looked at for a lot of capital appreciation. If you time it right, you may get some but I always consider that a “bonus”. Bonds are there for steady income as well as “shock absorbers for when the equity market “falls out of bed”. I’m usually happy when my bonds are paying me enough to keep up with inflation....
<<>>SLOWLY adding to bonds now to capture higher rates in longer terms, mainly for the income.<>

Thanks. This is a really good point that I too easily don't keep in proper perspective --to not think of bonds in terms of cap appreciation but for their income.  I guess it was watching the historic NAV losses last year that skewed my attitude about them.  Basically just repositioned from longer to short term duration but never exited a largish position in bond funds overall.  Just trying to keep focused on the Long Term and ignore the trading days where bonds and stocks move in tandem.  Div income is appreciably and progressively better and I will probably stay positioned in bond exposure averaging 1-3 year duration.  An FA friend hasn't suggested to do otherwise.

[Chahta]

Jun 22, 2023 17:58:37 GMT mikes425 said:

Jun 22, 2023 14:37:43 GMT win1177 said:

Like others have said, bonds should not be looked at for a lot of capital appreciation. If you time it right, you may get some but I always consider that a “bonus”. Bonds are there for steady income as well as “shock absorbers for when the equity market “falls out of bed”. I’m usually happy when my bonds are paying me enough to keep up with inflation....
<<>>SLOWLY adding to bonds now to capture higher rates in longer terms, mainly for the income.<>

Thanks. This is a really good point that I too easily don't keep in proper perspective --to not think of bonds in terms of cap appreciation but for their income.  I guess it was watching the historic NAV losses last year that skewed my attitude about them.  Basically just repositioned from longer to short term duration but never exited a largish position in bond funds overall.  Just trying to keep focused on the Long Term and ignore the trading days where bonds and stocks move in tandem.  Div income is appreciably and progressively better and I will probably stay positioned in bond exposure averaging 1-3 year duration.  An FA friend hasn't suggested to do otherwise.

That is why I timed my purchases last year. I may not have bought at the bottom but far from the top. It is hard to take income from a loser but wait until you are ahead makes you feel better. If you buy funds with a track record see how the NAV rises and falls over time. My opinion is you must be in for the long term. Look at PIMIX. Hasn't been this cheap since 2010.

[bb2]

To me, cap appreciation is everything, as well as loss. Holding bonds, (pimco cef's for example), as the fed was poised to hike was something I just couldn't understand. You see the train coming but don't move out of the way?! Long term in a secular trend is a very long time.  Opportunities go neglected.

[mikes425]

Jun 22, 2023 21:32:14 GMT bb2 said:

To me, cap appreciation is everything, as well as loss. Holding bonds, (pimco cef's for example), as the fed was poised to hike was something I just couldn't understand. You see the train coming but don't move out of the way?! Long term in a secular trend is a very long time.  Opportunities go neglected.

The primary adjustment was just to shorten duration, but most of the NAV damage was already done by then. Hourly FA suggested no changes and stay focused on long term goal. My AA is based on that.