Post by FD1000 on May 27, 2023 22:41:50 GMT
(stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2023/05/celebrating-aapi-heritage-mont-521.html)
Quote:
Jonathan Lin's Road From IT to Technical Analysis
* Jonathan Lin, CMT, CFA, Chief Strategist at JL Market Technicals, has spent over two decades analyzing the financial market. His top mentors, Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada, have played an important role in his technical analysis journey and helped him understand the importance of looking at the big picture and the details when it comes to analyzing the market. Jonathan's Asian American heritage has helped him be open-minded and view things from different angles. It's a unique combination, one that has helped view the financial market from a flexible and practical point of view.
* In the decades of experience you've had in the industry, what are some challenges you faced?
Concept versus reality' is a phrase that Alan frequently uses. It reminds us of how a long-term investment thesis (the concept) requires constant near-term reality checks. Is the structural trend merely experiencing temporary hesitations? Or is there a new factor at work? Do we need to amend or even abandon the original concept?
Any investment thesis is a continuing work in progress and shall not be cast in stone. That, to me, is the foremost challenge any analyst faces, whether fundamental, technical, or macro—the need to objectively view and review your original concept; the need to let go of ego, pride, and perceptions... to become your own ‘fly on the wall.'
Another ongoing challenge is the need to revamp your analytical toolbox. The financial markets evolve, and when the market structure changes, you must reexamine the indicators and models you use. You may augment, modify, or even replace some decades-old, industry-standard indicators.
* So when there are so many uncertainties, what should traders/investors be focused on?
For nearly a year, I've been developing a thesis that we may be experiencing an economic and market environment similar to 1966–82. I've added some long-term studies in my reports to clients that explore the possibility, but the entire thesis is still a work in progress. Many key statistics I'd like to have simply don't go back far enough, so much work remains to be done.
But, if the ‘1966–82' thesis proves worthwhile, then sector and stock selections will become paramount. During that structurally sideways market environment, spotting the right sector/stock leadership and, thus, relative outperformance made and broke careers! My mentor Alan Shaw made his mark on timing and calling those sector and stock rotations. In essence, it has become a stock picker's market instead of a "rising tide lifts all boats" environment.
For now, select Consumer Discretionary and Technology names are coming to the fore and worth close watching.
Going beyond equities, a balanced portfolio with some rotations among various asset classes, including commodities and fixed-income, would, as always, be a smart approach. We're keeping a close eye on gold right now.
*Do you have any words of wisdom for aspiring technical analysts?
Be ready to unlearn and relearn many things I used to tell my students at NYIF to forgo assumptions, including the idea of intrinsic value. A good place to start is to believe nothing has intrinsic value!
To embrace technical analysis, you must let go of the idea of "value."
Technical analysis is not an exact science, nor is it any form of market analysis. Like Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, oftentimes, we can project a price, but the timing may be vague, and vice versa.
A final piece of advice: Read, learn, and then innovate. Please make sure the technical analysis you practice isn't your grandfather's technical analysis while not forgetting the dear lessons he has learned.
End quote
========
FD: music to my ears. The reason I posted the article here was his prediction of "market environment similar to 1966–82"
Quote:
Jonathan Lin's Road From IT to Technical Analysis
* Jonathan Lin, CMT, CFA, Chief Strategist at JL Market Technicals, has spent over two decades analyzing the financial market. His top mentors, Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada, have played an important role in his technical analysis journey and helped him understand the importance of looking at the big picture and the details when it comes to analyzing the market. Jonathan's Asian American heritage has helped him be open-minded and view things from different angles. It's a unique combination, one that has helped view the financial market from a flexible and practical point of view.
* In the decades of experience you've had in the industry, what are some challenges you faced?
Concept versus reality' is a phrase that Alan frequently uses. It reminds us of how a long-term investment thesis (the concept) requires constant near-term reality checks. Is the structural trend merely experiencing temporary hesitations? Or is there a new factor at work? Do we need to amend or even abandon the original concept?
Any investment thesis is a continuing work in progress and shall not be cast in stone. That, to me, is the foremost challenge any analyst faces, whether fundamental, technical, or macro—the need to objectively view and review your original concept; the need to let go of ego, pride, and perceptions... to become your own ‘fly on the wall.'
Another ongoing challenge is the need to revamp your analytical toolbox. The financial markets evolve, and when the market structure changes, you must reexamine the indicators and models you use. You may augment, modify, or even replace some decades-old, industry-standard indicators.
* So when there are so many uncertainties, what should traders/investors be focused on?
For nearly a year, I've been developing a thesis that we may be experiencing an economic and market environment similar to 1966–82. I've added some long-term studies in my reports to clients that explore the possibility, but the entire thesis is still a work in progress. Many key statistics I'd like to have simply don't go back far enough, so much work remains to be done.
But, if the ‘1966–82' thesis proves worthwhile, then sector and stock selections will become paramount. During that structurally sideways market environment, spotting the right sector/stock leadership and, thus, relative outperformance made and broke careers! My mentor Alan Shaw made his mark on timing and calling those sector and stock rotations. In essence, it has become a stock picker's market instead of a "rising tide lifts all boats" environment.
For now, select Consumer Discretionary and Technology names are coming to the fore and worth close watching.
Going beyond equities, a balanced portfolio with some rotations among various asset classes, including commodities and fixed-income, would, as always, be a smart approach. We're keeping a close eye on gold right now.
*Do you have any words of wisdom for aspiring technical analysts?
Be ready to unlearn and relearn many things I used to tell my students at NYIF to forgo assumptions, including the idea of intrinsic value. A good place to start is to believe nothing has intrinsic value!
To embrace technical analysis, you must let go of the idea of "value."
Technical analysis is not an exact science, nor is it any form of market analysis. Like Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, oftentimes, we can project a price, but the timing may be vague, and vice versa.
A final piece of advice: Read, learn, and then innovate. Please make sure the technical analysis you practice isn't your grandfather's technical analysis while not forgetting the dear lessons he has learned.
End quote
========
FD: music to my ears. The reason I posted the article here was his prediction of "market environment similar to 1966–82"