Can you guess what the one unspecified funds is?

[steadyeddy]

Here is a PortfolioVisualizer graph of 3 funds. 

I will tell you that the red line is US total stock market index (like VTI); and the yellow is the total international stock market (like VXUS).

Can you guess the third fund (blue line)? 

Hint: It is a PIMCO mutual fund.

[FD1000]

May 10, 2023 0:25:48 GMT steadyeddy said:

Here is a PortfolioVisualizer graph of 3 funds. 

I will tell you that the red line is US total stock market index (like VTI); and the yellow is the total international stock market (like VXUS).

Can you guess the third fund (blue line)? 

Hint: It is a PIMCO mutual fund.


View Attachment

I think I guessed it on the first try  
You have an error. VXUS started in 2012, your chart shows a 2008 start. If you use VGTSX instead of VXUS you get the results.
Good chance the blue line is PIMIX. PIMIX was great when I held it for about 8 years until 01/2018.
Since 12-31-2017, PIMIX made only 2.2% annually and = to a total of 11.2% in over 5 years.
RCTIX doubled that and made 25.3%. SVARX did even better. It is a fund of funds and does similar stuff to mine, but very expensive ER, many funds. M* used to post their holdings = funds but now I can't find any recent holdings. I guess they like to hide it. I only found holdings for 12/31/2022 and it was 91% cash + 9% Gov bonds. 
I guess they missed the memo(post) in early 11/2022 which was the start of the recovery.
(link).

[steadyeddy]

May 10, 2023 4:07:11 GMT FD1000 said:

May 10, 2023 0:25:48 GMT steadyeddy said:

Here is a PortfolioVisualizer graph of 3 funds. 

I will tell you that the red line is US total stock market index (like VTI); and the yellow is the total international stock market (like VXUS).

Can you guess the third fund (blue line)? 

Hint: It is a PIMCO mutual fund.


View Attachment

I think I guessed it on the first try  
You have an error. VXUS started in 2012, your chart shows a 2008 start. If you use VGTSX instead of VXUS you get the results.
Good chance the blue line is PIMIX. PIMIX was great when I held it for about 8 years until 01/2018.
Since 12-31-2017, PIMIX made only 2.2% annually and = to a total of 11.2% in over 5 years.
RCTIX doubled that and made 25.3%. SVARX did even better. It is a fund of funds and does similar stuff to mine, but very expensive ER, many funds. M* used to post their holdings = funds but now I can't find any recent holdings. I guess they like to hide it. I only found holdings for 12/31/2022 and it was 91% cash + 9% Gov bonds. 
I guess they missed the memo(post) in early 11/2022 which was the start of the recovery.
(link).

FD1000, great job in guessing the correct fund PIMIX for the blue line.  Look at the consistency of PIMIX's performance over almost 15 years.

Other funds you mentioned are interesting but they are relatively new with not as much of track record as PIMIX nor the asset size similar to PIMIX. 

Let us stay on topic please.

[FD1000]

May 10, 2023 11:21:19 GMT steadyeddy said:

May 10, 2023 4:07:11 GMT FD1000 said:

I think I guessed it on the first try  
You have an error. VXUS started in 2012, your chart shows a 2008 start. If you use VGTSX instead of VXUS you get the results.
Good chance the blue line is PIMIX. PIMIX was great when I held it for about 8 years until 01/2018.
Since 12-31-2017, PIMIX made only 2.2% annually and = to a total of 11.2% in over 5 years.
RCTIX doubled that and made 25.3%. SVARX did even better. It is a fund of funds and does similar stuff to mine, but very expensive ER, many funds. M* used to post their holdings = funds but now I can't find any recent holdings. I guess they like to hide it. I only found holdings for 12/31/2022 and it was 91% cash + 9% Gov bonds. 
I guess they missed the memo(post) in early 11/2022 which was the start of the recovery.
(link).

FD1000 , great job in guessing the correct fund PIMIX for the blue line.  Look at the consistency of PIMIX's performance over almost 15 years.

Other funds you mentioned are interesting but they are relatively new with not as much of track record as PIMIX nor the asset size similar to PIMIX. 

Let us stay on topic please.

PIMIX great performance was until 01/2018.  The magic is gone. AUM is inflated for years = the managers can't maneuver well and rapid.  That's like saying that VALUE was great in 2010 after it did better than growth for several years...and miss the next 10 years.
Newer and smaller funds could be the best options. 3 years is already enough history, 5 years is plenty, especially in tough markets like we had since 2018.  If you wait 10 years, the AUM becomes big and the fund getting to be average.

[steadyeddy]

May 10, 2023 16:27:19 GMT FD1000 said:

May 10, 2023 11:21:19 GMT steadyeddy said:

FD1000 , great job in guessing the correct fund PIMIX for the blue line.  Look at the consistency of PIMIX's performance over almost 15 years.

Other funds you mentioned are interesting but they are relatively new with not as much of track record as PIMIX nor the asset size similar to PIMIX. 

Let us stay on topic please.

PIMIX great performance was until 01/2018.  The magic is gone. AUM is inflated for years = the managers can't maneuver well and rapid.  That's like saying that VALUE was great in 2010 after it did better than growth for several years...and miss the next 10 years.
Newer and smaller funds could be the best options. 3 years is already enough history, 5 years is plenty, especially in tough markets like we had since 2018.  If you wait 10 years, the AUM becomes big and the fund getting to be average.

FD1000, magic is gone w/ PIMIX? In all its history PIMIX has proved that it provides a good risk-adjusted returns for a multisector bond fund. Steady as it goes. Even during the pandemic times, Even during recessions. Even during inflationary period of the last year-and-half with rapid rate hikes.

Could there be better funds for short-term performance? absolutely. Could anyone predict which funds those would be? I bet no one can. 

[FD1000]

This is how I look at things and they are not mainstream.
* I look at all the options, I don't look at relative performance but absolute one.
What does it mean?
*  All my funds must make money with min in mind. Losing money in any year is never acceptable, not buts or ifs. Since retirement I consider it as failure.
* I compare funds from different categories because I'm looking for better performance. I don't believe I have to compare apple to apples because I look at risk-adjusted performance.

How the above worked
* PIMIX made about 2.2-3% annually since 01/2018. Compares to its category it was good. For absolute return, it wasn't. In my case, 2.3% annually isn't acceptable. I sold it in 01/2018 and never looked back after I owned a lot of it (over 50%) for about 7-8 years.
* Since 01/2018, the following funds were better OPTAX(HY Munis),EIFAX(BL),VWIAX(conservative allocation),SVARX(Multi)...(schrts.co/XNMNQxhC).
An extreme example is RPHIX vs PIMIX (schrts.co/hWqkciVS)

To be fair, PIMIX should perform better in the next several years, as most other bond funds will do, because rates are higher. 
The magic is gone = PIMIX doesn't have the advantage of using busted MBS as it did after 2008, it has to take more risk and continue using its black box investing in unique situations to achieve higher distr at 6+% with a huge AUM.  6+% income is reaching too high and comes with extra risk.

[Chahta]

May 11, 2023 13:10:43 GMT FD1000 said:

This is how I look at things and they are not mainstream.
* I look at all the options, I don't look at relative performance but absolute one.
What does it mean?
*  All my funds must make money with min in mind. Losing money in any year is never acceptable, not buts or ifs. Since retirement I consider it as failure.
* I compare funds from different categories because I'm looking for better performance. I don't believe I have to compare apple to apples because I look at risk-adjusted performance.

How the above worked
* PIMIX made about 2.2-3% annually since 01/2018. Compares to its category it was good. For absolute return, it wasn't. In my case, 2.3% annually isn't acceptable. I sold it in 01/2018 and never looked back after I owned a lot of it (over 50%) for about 7-8 years.
* Since 01/2018, the following funds were better OPTAX(HY Munis),EIFAX(BL),VWIAX(conservative allocation),SVARX(Multi)...(schrts.co/XNMNQxhC).
An extreme example is RPHIX vs PIMIX (schrts.co/hWqkciVS)

To be fair, PIMIX should perform better in the next several years, as most other bond funds will do, because rates are higher. 
The magic is gone = PIMIX doesn't have the advantage of using busted MBS as it did after 2008, it has to take more risk and continue using its black box investing in unique situations to achieve higher distr at 6+% with a huge AUM.  6+% income is reaching too high and comes with extra risk.

I am not following you on this. Taking NHMAX as an example, it had a horrible down year in 2022. It however had several tradable times in 2022 where one could have made several %.

[FD1000]

You can see that I didn't mention NHMAX. It's for trading, not for typical investors.
You are also correct about bonds in general since 2018. They didn't do well and why I believe in investing based on markets.

[steadyeddy]

May 11, 2023 16:26:37 GMT FD1000 said:

You can see that I didn't mention NHMAX. It's for trading, not for typical investors.
You are also correct about bonds in general since 2018. They didn't do well and why I believe in investing based on markets.

FD1000, this selective mentioning of this fund or that fund is what kills me in your postings.

[steadyeddy]

May 11, 2023 13:10:43 GMT FD1000 said:

This is how I look at things and they are not mainstream.
* I look at all the options, I don't look at relative performance but absolute one.
What does it mean?
*  All my funds must make money with min in mind. Losing money in any year is never acceptable, not buts or ifs. Since retirement I consider it as failure.
* I compare funds from different categories because I'm looking for better performance. I don't believe I have to compare apple to apples because I look at risk-adjusted performance.

How the above worked
* PIMIX made about 2.2-3% annually since 01/2018. Compares to its category it was good. For absolute return, it wasn't. In my case, 2.3% annually isn't acceptable. I sold it in 01/2018 and never looked back after I owned a lot of it (over 50%) for about 7-8 years.
* Since 01/2018, the following funds were better OPTAX(HY Munis),EIFAX(BL),VWIAX(conservative allocation),SVARX(Multi)...(schrts.co/XNMNQxhC).
An extreme example is RPHIX vs PIMIX (schrts.co/hWqkciVS)

To be fair, PIMIX should perform better in the next several years, as most other bond funds will do, because rates are higher. 
The magic is gone = PIMIX doesn't have the advantage of using busted MBS as it did after 2008, it has to take more risk and continue using its black box investing in unique situations to achieve higher distr at 6+% with a huge AUM.  6+% income is reaching too high and comes with extra risk.

They will find busted something else. I like the steady performance of PIMIX..

[FD1000]

May 11, 2023 17:56:22 GMT steadyeddy said:

May 11, 2023 13:10:43 GMT FD1000 said:

They will find busted something else. I like the steady performance of PIMIX..

With AUM = 121 billions they can't find anything meaningful that would boost their performance by a lot without taking higher risk. 

Until 2018 PIMIX made a lot more with lower SD/risk.  From 01-01-2010 to 01-01-2018 PIMIX beat VWIAX (one of the best conser allocation) and matched VBIAX (60/40) on performance but still lower SD and higher Sharpe(=risk-adjusted performance)...and why the magic is gone.  See PV(link).
PIMIX will never have Sharp ratio > 2, never.

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