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Post by mozart522 on May 3, 2023 13:28:59 GMT
According to PV, in the last two years, (May 21-April 23) a simple money market beat the total returns of VOO by .34%. VOO had an SD of over 18.
so with all the gyrations over the last two years VOO holders made about 1.3%, well under inflation. Will it get worse from here?
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Post by johnsmith on May 3, 2023 13:50:19 GMT
According to PV, in the last two years, (May 21-April 23) a simple money market beat the total returns of VOO by .34%. VOO had an SD of over 18. so with all the gyrations over the last two years VOO holders made about 1.3%, well under inflation. Will it get worse from here? Hussman thinks so. Dave Rosenberg thinks so. GMO is also in the same basket.
They have all been wrong before.
in May 21, most people would not have gone to Money Market, because there was hardly any yield. VOO probably paid a higher dividend yield than money markets at that time.
This is all hindsight and useless.
the questions are - where do we go from here? - Are we diversified? - Can we live (deal with volatility…) with our current portfolio? - Will something else happen that could derail the markets? portfolio? - Are we diversified? - Who is PV?
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Post by mozart522 on May 3, 2023 14:17:44 GMT
johnsmith, It is just information. And yes, most would not have gone to MM until May of 2022. Then cash wins by even more according to PV PV=Portfolio visualizer.
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Post by johnsmith on May 3, 2023 14:26:46 GMT
mozart522, It's interesting from one perspective to me - - it's hard to predict what is going to happen. - for most of diversification between (cash, bonds, stocks) is the way to go. - rebalancing is good.
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Post by johnsmith on May 3, 2023 14:27:14 GMT
it's good to know what is information and what is noise.
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Post by uncleharley on May 3, 2023 14:36:30 GMT
The daily and weekly charts for VOO look bullish to me.
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Post by steelpony10 on May 3, 2023 14:44:52 GMT
According to PV, in the last two years, (May 21-April 23) a simple money market beat the total returns of VOO by .34%. VOO had an SD of over 18. so with all the gyrations over the last two years VOO holders made about 1.3%, well under inflation. Will it get worse from here? Ha. Ha. We hold VTI I see it every day. Here’s a more sobering thought I came across from an online interview. Sorry I can’t link it so take this for what it’s worth: It took from 1929 to “1953” to make up the lost purchasing power from inflation to get back to even. This is the big reason to squash inflation hard and fast. It’s another reason, as if I need more, I try to distance myself from dependence on equities as much as possible. It’s just another “trait” out of my control. Inflation seems to be tapering off. Remember trading partners are fighting the same worldwide problems. Supposedly a “mild” recession lies ahead. Stock values should go lower and then there’s the average 2.5 year recovery from a recession. Odds favor worse for markets (and the investing class) neutral for inflation (everyone else which includes the poor). Unknowns of course could alter either. |
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Post by racqueteer on May 3, 2023 14:48:26 GMT
The daily and weekly charts for VOO look bullish to me. Could you expand on that a bit? Things look kind of 'toppy' to me at present. We appear to either be at resistance, or setting up a base; depending on how one views things? |
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Post by mnfish on May 3, 2023 16:52:06 GMT
In the FWIW department, I looked back at my total portfolios for May 1, 2021 and today and I'm 10.6% higher today which includes spend down of 10.8% of that beginning balance. Spending was high due to a land purchase, hooking up my cabin to electricity and replacing my 18yo ATV.
In PortVis, using the same beginning balance and spend down,
100% VOO is down 4.19% today
100 % CashX is down 3.91% today
100% PDI is down 15.68% today
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Post by steelpony10 on May 3, 2023 17:19:58 GMT
mnfish , I don’t think VOO or cash got 10-14% cash flow like PDI during those years. I think most invest in bonds for cash flow not cap gains. I’ve had a great deal of cash left over to invest in more cash flow since Covid. Of course cash loses more each day in purchasing power (2-3 years of inflation?) and equities have periods of inactivity of unknown length, lose purchasing power to inflation leading to negative returns on top of everything else that impacts values like world events. So I see squat from cash, less then squat (including the worse kind, unknowns) from VOO. With PDI I see more then 20%+ to 28%+ in cash flow for 2 years (minus 16%+) from PDI plus this year’s 14% so far depending on one’s cost basis. This looks like a really good positive return over that time when compared to any other options.
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Post by uncleharley on May 3, 2023 17:20:05 GMT
The daily and weekly charts for VOO look bullish to me. Could you expand on that a bit? Things look kind of 'toppy' to me at present. We appear to either be at resistance, or setting up a base; depending on how one views things? The weekly chart shows that VOO bottomed out last October. It has been rising in a tight ascending channel since then. It has broken above the 50% FIBO retracement level which also coincides with a high volume price level. Momentum is positive. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VOO&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p16454529117&a=1405741216&listNum=86 |
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Post by racqueteer on May 3, 2023 20:25:31 GMT
Could you expand on that a bit? Things look kind of 'toppy' to me at present. We appear to either be at resistance, or setting up a base; depending on how one views things? The weekly chart shows that VOO bottomed out last October. It has been rising in a tight ascending channel since then. It has broken above the 50% FIBO retracement level which also coincides with a high volume price level. Momentum is positive. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VOO&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p16454529117&a=1405741216&listNum=86Ok... I figured the real bounce out of the previous DOWNWARD channel took place somewhere around February (just eyeballing your chart). Since then, we've kind of bounced along basically sideways. Would that also be a reasonable interpretation; albeit perhaps over a shorter timescale?
Edit: Of course, the daily looks even worse; with the downward channel continuing until about March 27.
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Post by steadyeddy on May 3, 2023 21:33:14 GMT
According to PV, in the last two years, (May 21-April 23) a simple money market beat the total returns of VOO by .34%. VOO had an SD of over 18. so with all the gyrations over the last two years VOO holders made about 1.3%, well under inflation. Will it get worse from here? The stimulus post-COVID has elevated S&P quite a bit really fast. If you are a believer of reversion to the mean you would expect a few lost years in S&P. I belong to that camp. I feel that bonds offer more opportunity than stocks right now - particularly if you are willing to take duration risk (longer bonds). |
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Post by FD1000 on May 4, 2023 21:52:42 GMT
We haven't discussed PDI for "awhile". Since 1-1-2020, PDI paid probably about 35% income but it's down close to 16%.
QQQ paid very little income but is up over 50%.
A million dollar invested in PDI is worth less than $850k while QQQ is worth over 1.5 million.
It's pretty easy to know which was a better choice.
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Post by FD1000 on May 4, 2023 21:54:25 GMT
According to PV, in the last two years, (May 21-April 23) a simple money market beat the total returns of VOO by .34%. VOO had an SD of over 18. so with all the gyrations over the last two years VOO holders made about 1.3%, well under inflation. Will it get worse from here? Well, the SP500 lost 10% during 2000-2010. |
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Post by racqueteer on May 5, 2023 12:31:11 GMT
Ok... I figured the real bounce out of the previous DOWNWARD channel took place somewhere around February (just eyeballing your chart). Since then, we've kind of bounced along basically sideways. Would that also be a reasonable interpretation; albeit perhaps over a shorter timescale?
Edit: Of course, the daily looks even worse; with the downward channel continuing until about March 27.
uncleharley, you may have missed my question in the quote; so I'm going to bring it forward again. Curious about my interpretation of the chart versus yours; trying to learn! |
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Post by FD1000 on May 5, 2023 12:38:52 GMT
My simple T/A interpretation of the SP500: it's in a range of 380 to 420.
ST trend going down but can bounce of 50 DMA.
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Post by racqueteer on May 5, 2023 13:15:37 GMT
My simple T/A interpretation of the SP500: it's in a range of 380 to 420. ST trend going down but can bounce of 50 DMA. Yeah, that's pretty much the way I'm seeing it as well. Lots of stuff hovering in the background; all of which could be problematic going forward. As with many online, I'm keeping a low profile and watching. Though, of the two possibilities, (building a base versus knocking up against resistance), I'm inclined to think that the latter is more likely to be the case; over the short term, at least. The apparent market exuberance that has been in evidence has wrong-footed me on several occasions; so we'll see... |
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Post by mozart522 on May 5, 2023 14:41:21 GMT
My simple T/A interpretation of the SP500: it's in a range of 380 to 420. ST trend going down but can bounce of 50 DMA. This was my point of the OP: 500 ("market") is range bound and may stay that way for quite a while. |
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Post by racqueteer on May 5, 2023 15:11:44 GMT
My simple T/A interpretation of the SP500: it's in a range of 380 to 420. ST trend going down but can bounce of 50 DMA. This was my point of the OP: 500 ("market") is range bound and may stay that way for quite a while. And that's why I took note of uncleharley's more bullish view of things. As usual, I think one's timeframe has a lot to do with how one interprets charts. Today, for example, presents a conundrum: do we buy the apparent bounce back to 4200 and hold over a weekend? Too late to do THAT, I suspect (Wednesday would have been the day for that). Is it smart to take the long view, assume the worst is in, and start accumulating equity for a year (two?) from now? Everyone's situation is different. |
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Post by archer on May 5, 2023 15:24:19 GMT
There has to be a reason for the market to remain range bound, just as there has to be a reason for it to go higher or lower. The surface answer is supply and demand for stocks, but beneath that is the reason for increased or decreased demand vs supply. The Fed has been the main driver of the market over the past several months to a year. I found this article containing an interesting chart showing the course of the market in relation to the fed rate activity. |
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Post by FD1000 on May 5, 2023 17:06:04 GMT
Archer, good article, the only problem is when they mentioned long term investors. LT mean to me buy and hold, in that case nothing matters, I'm looking for good answers for the ones who want to do something or want better risk-adjusted performance.
IMO, the Fed signaled an end to rate hikes, this should be better for bonds and tech stocks. But wait, I already have been posting about it for months based on the markets :-)
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Post by mozart522 on May 6, 2023 11:50:37 GMT
This was my point of the OP: 500 ("market") is range bound and may stay that way for quite a while. And that's why I took note of uncleharley's more bullish view of things. As usual, I think one's timeframe has a lot to do with how one interprets charts. Today, for example, presents a conundrum: do we buy the apparent bounce back to 4200 and hold over a weekend? Too late to do THAT, I suspect (Wednesday would have been the day for that). Is it smart to take the long view, assume the worst is in, and start accumulating equity for a year (two?) from now? Everyone's situation is different. I agree. At 77 I can see taking either the short view for myself or the long view for heirs. But since I have generally been conservative since retirement at 60, I personally am comfortable just trying to avoid the unknowns and volatility. And 5+% MM looks pretty good to me. Next week a new CPI report. A negative surprise will crush the market, IMO. A larger than expected fall may suggest a longer wait for a FED cut. I'm in fly on the wall mode. |
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Post by uncleharley on May 6, 2023 12:00:00 GMT
And that's why I took note of uncleharley's more bullish view of things. As usual, I think one's timeframe has a lot to do with how one interprets charts. Today, for example, presents a conundrum: do we buy the apparent bounce back to 4200 and hold over a weekend? Too late to do THAT, I suspect (Wednesday would have been the day for that). Is it smart to take the long view, assume the worst is in, and start accumulating equity for a year (two?) from now? Everyone's situation is different. I agree. At 77 I can see taking either the short view for myself or the long view for heirs. But since I have generally been conservative since retirement at 60, I personally am comfortable just trying to avoid the unknowns and volatility. And 5+% MM looks pretty good to me. Next week a new CPI report. A negative surprise will crush the market, IMO. A larger than expected fall may suggest a longer wait for a FED cut. I'm in fly on the wall mode. And then there are even signs of a sort of peace in Ukraine. I am on alert for a market move in either direction, but I do Not think the move has begun yet. |
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Post by archer on May 6, 2023 16:33:47 GMT
And that's why I took note of uncleharley's more bullish view of things. As usual, I think one's timeframe has a lot to do with how one interprets charts. Today, for example, presents a conundrum: do we buy the apparent bounce back to 4200 and hold over a weekend? Too late to do THAT, I suspect (Wednesday would have been the day for that). Is it smart to take the long view, assume the worst is in, and start accumulating equity for a year (two?) from now? Everyone's situation is different. I agree. At 77 I can see taking either the short view for myself or the long view for heirs. But since I have generally been conservative since retirement at 60, I personally am comfortable just trying to avoid the unknowns and volatility. And 5+% MM looks pretty good to me. Next week a new CPI report. A negative surprise will crush the market, IMO. A larger than expected fall may suggest a longer wait for a FED cut. I'm in fly on the wall mode. 5% MM looks about as good as .5% did a few years ago. Now, same as then, I suppose it is a matter of how MM looks compared to other alternatives, which as always, are debatable. If the stock market is not, or even might not be out of the woods yet, cash does look good. Cash looks better to me than it has in a long time because I believe inflation is coming down and earned interest on cash will lag in its descent compared to the descending inflation rate, just as it did when inflation was rising. What I don't understand is why was it in the early 80's, growth of cash exceeded inflation. This PV chart shows cash earning money with inflation taken into account. Perhaps "CASH" in PV is something other than money market? In any case the chart shows that after taking inflation into consideration, cash did much better in the '80's and '90's. (the link doesn't include having the inflation box checked beneath the graph, so if interested, you will have to click the inflation box.) What is it that changed such that cash growth started declining in 2002? I know that the fed was aggressively raising rates in the 80s. Is it that they were just more aggressive than today compared to the inflation rate? |
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Post by fishingrod on May 6, 2023 17:49:51 GMT
"Risk-free returns are calculated based on the Federal Reserve 3-Month Treasury Bill (secondary market) rates."
Inflation hit a high of 13+% in 1980 while the Fed Funds rate was at 19.39%. FF rate went to 19% again in 1981.
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Post by Mustang on May 6, 2023 20:49:30 GMT
In the late 60s, 70s and early 80s inflation and Federal rates were all over the place. The Fed thought it had inflation beat so it lowered rates then inflation went higher than before. When the Fed had rates high enough to start beating back inflation money markets showed a real return. When they slacked off and inflation came back they showed a real loss. Here is a chart of inflation vs. Fed rates. www.thebalancemoney.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093In Nov 1968 the S&P 500 was 924. It didn't get close to that again until Apr 1993 when it hit 922. www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dataHow about a lost 25 years for the S&P 500. |
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Post by FD1000 on May 6, 2023 21:04:16 GMT
The way most calculate returns is based on: 1) Not including inflation. 2) Total returns which include all the distributions. This is IMO, why the chart of MACROTREND isn't a good representative. This site gives you total return. www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns |
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Post by archer on May 6, 2023 23:26:49 GMT
Thanks for the data fishingrod, Mustang, FD1000,. Interesting how well the markets did in the 80's and 90's with high interest rates. |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2023 1:14:30 GMT
In the late 60s, 70s and early 80s inflation and Federal rates were all over the place. The Fed thought it had inflation beat so it lowered rates then inflation went higher than before. When the Fed had rates high enough to start beating back inflation money markets showed a real return. When they slacked off and inflation came back they showed a real loss. Here is a chart of inflation vs. Fed rates. www.thebalancemoney.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093In Nov 1968 the S&P 500 was 924. It didn't get close to that again until Apr 1993 when it hit 922. www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dataHow about a lost 25 years for the S&P 500. So sp500 did not work during those 25 years of high inflation and high interest rates times, what worked? |
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