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Post by colorado on May 21, 2023 13:09:07 GMT
In reading the original post on this thread, the original poster does not appear to be an active trader. The poster was describing portfolio percentages, devoted to bond funds, and other asset classes, and he was asking if anyone else was increasing/adding to the bond portion of their portfolio. I don't understand how an occasional successful trade applies to the original poster's question. If I am incorrect, it would be helpful if win1177 could clarify that periodic trades are applicable to his original question.
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Post by win1177 on May 21, 2023 13:28:17 GMT
In reading the original post on this thread, I do not see the original poster as an active trader. The poster was describing portfolio percentages, devoted to bond funds, and other asset classes, and he was asking if anyone else was increasing/adding to the bond portion of his portfolio. I don't understand how an occasional successful trade applies to the original poster's question. Maybe win1177 could clarify if periodic trades is applicable to his original question. Colorado, You are correct, I am not an “active trader”. Tend to be a buy and hold investor, and have performed pretty well sticking to my “lane”. When rates were real low and inflation was rising (2021- early 2022), I started selling my bond holdings as I saw them continuously dropping. For a while, I had NO bond holdings, all my “fixed income” allocation was in money markets. Money market rates have gone up significantly, so I am generating fairly good returns there, but really I am losing a little less to inflation. But over the past year, I have started slowly moving some of that back into bond funds (mainly munis due to our tax rate), as rates have continued to rise. My portfolio is pretty large, so I only need to hold a relatively smaller slice of it in fixed income, as long as I can tolerate the volatility, which I can. It is much larger than we need, and will be left to children. I retired last year and have a pension, which covers about 1/3 of our needs. Have NOT started SS (turn 65 this fall), so will have that too. Mainly looking for “stable” bond income, to diversify away some of the volatility we have in a very heavy equity allocation. Right now we have about 3% fixed income, want to get it to around 10-15%. Rest will be equity. Win
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Post by yakers on May 21, 2023 14:42:47 GMT
For the longest time I paid little attention to bonds/fixed income. I just used VG 60/40 Balanced VBIAX and it did predictably well for many years. I no longer trust bond INDEXED funds. I have not found a great alternative that requires minimal management. Most of my bonds are now part of my VG Wellsley & Global Wellington so I trust (hope?) that VG will manage them. I also have some ibonds and treasuries and MM funds, have not chased CDs at this time. But I am blessed (rewarded?) to have the Federal TSP program so most of my fixed income is in the G Fund which also alowwed me to pay less attention to bonds/FI. While I can accept VG managed funds or ETFs like VOO, VTI, Vt... I have not found a 'set and forget' holding for bonds. I want to roughly keep my AA (59/25/16 EOY 2022, we're in our 70s) I just wish I could go back to paying no attention to bonds.
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Post by FD1000 on May 21, 2023 23:28:23 GMT
Index bond funds are fine, but a good trader can do so much more. These indexes were great because rates were going down since the early 80s. Every now and then a great fund shows up and prove my point. PIMIX was one of this fund that made so much more, there were years it was better than stocks with lower SD than bonds and 6+% income. One great exception is worth so much more. Someone who doesn't trade and/or pay attention to unique funds, will likely miss these opportunities, on the other hand, investing in low ER funds has advantages too. The nice thing, you can do both. Set and forget is another myth, sometimes it's easier to know markets are very risky. 2022 was one of these. As I always say, if you want to swim well, you actually have to practice it. Replace the word swim with trading
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Post by yakers on May 22, 2023 15:08:01 GMT
I'm not a trader. Many years back I separated some $ and set up a test trading account. After a couple years (yes, I know that is not a lot) I was up over the S&P500 (my goal) but I learned that it was a lot of work for not a great gain and realy not worth the time and effort and possible diversification risk. But I have genuime confidence on figuring out when to buy. My real problem is I could not figure out optimal times to sell, and that is, I think, more important to trading. My intent (like Buffet?) is to hold 'forever', and I have some ancient holdings in WEC and BWA from direct DRIP days, remember those? Hope to pass these on to our sons as capital gains would be significant. (first world problem) Now that wife & I have to take RMDs/QCDs I am forced to figure out what to sell and do that to adjust the AA a bit. But at least I have a goal in mind to decide what to sell. Now bonds I really know nothing about experiencaly (understand the theory)I didn't have to with the Federal TSP G Fund (some consider it a stable value type fund, but its kind of unique) so I could keep most of my fixed income there and focus on equities.
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Post by oldskeet on May 23, 2023 10:45:31 GMT
Hi guys.
Recently, I added to one of my muni income funds as I maintain a sleeve of mostly fixed income funds. This was done to keep my asset allocation on bubble at 20, 40, 40 (cash, bonds & stocks). My portfolio is a relative large one and generates more income than I need to live off of as I also receive social security plus some limited partnership income which I can keep in retirement or sell back to the firm. With asset values currently being depressed I have been a recent buyer in a good number of income generating securities. They include muni's, preferred securities, convertibles, commodities, reits, and bonds on the income side of my portfolio and on the equity side mostly in good dividend paying equity income funds.
On my asset allocation, I run a 20,40,40 with rebalance thresholds set at plus (of minus) two percent. In addition I can overweight (or under weight) any investment area by up to five percent while letting cash float.
Thus far in my retirement years this asset allocation has served me well as it provides more income than I need, has cash reserves if needed to draw from and has grown in value since retirement as a hedge from inflation through it's equity holdings.
So, yes. I have been a recent buyer in bonds along with some other asset classes as well. And, should we get a sizeable dip during the debt limit debacle I will put my buying britches on and do some buying because in time things will get a short term fixed as politicians kick the can down the road for their successors to deal with these same issues, time and time again, with nothing really being fixed for the long term.
From my perspective, a good number of politicians have made America a functionless society as they are in office more to sere themselves rather than those that have voted them into office.
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Post by FD1000 on May 24, 2023 0:06:27 GMT
When someone changes her portfolio by 1-2-5% it has hardly any influence on her portfolio. Suppose stocks fall 20%, or explode 30%, do 5% change protect or really help her portfolio? The idea of good trading is to avoid bear markets while participating in most of the upside, especially in retirement, and you can do it with just 3-5 funds.
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Post by johnsmith on May 24, 2023 1:46:34 GMT
I added a very small (chump change) to EDV Extended Duration Treasury Bonds (longer duration than TLT)
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Post by Chahta on May 24, 2023 14:27:41 GMT
I would buy CBLDX or RSIIX. But wait until it goes ex-div. Small AUM and a smart manager working in his lane.
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Post by johntaylor on May 25, 2023 16:36:35 GMT
Recently added to the F Fund
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Post by Capital on May 25, 2023 18:27:10 GMT
FYIW - I am seeing T-Bills listed at Fidelity maturing 6/6/2023 and 6/08/2023 yielding almost 6.5%.
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 13:19:15 GMT
I have traded TLT twice this year. First time, I made about 10%, the second time around 5%. Over the last two days, I started a new position. Excellent. I love when investors make money. If I wanted to invest, my charts must prove it first, and right now they don't.As a rule of thumb, I don't invest in funds with volatility much higher than SPY, especially not bonds. The bond charts continue to go down. In the last 2 week: ORNAX(HY Muni)+BND (US tot bond index) lost about 2.5%...TLT lost over 4%. Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on May 26, 2023 14:27:48 GMT
I have traded TLT twice this year. First time, I made about 10%, the second time around 5%. Over the last two days, I started a new position. I have been watch TLT and EDV lately. This is because rates have been rising and will go back down once closer to 4%.
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Post by yakers on May 26, 2023 20:58:20 GMT
Recently added to the F Fund Maybe good timing, maybe early. What would make you sell or buy more? I am avoiding FFund/BND in favor of the G Fund or L Income but maybe F fits better in your AA?
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 22:51:31 GMT
I have traded TLT twice this year. First time, I made about 10%, the second time around 5%. Over the last two days, I started a new position. I have been watch TLT and EDV lately. This is because rates have been rising and will go back down once closer to 4%. That makes sense, especially with bonds. Sharp moves can create the opposite moves. Attachments:
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Post by steadyeddy on May 27, 2023 0:09:36 GMT
I am exiting LT bond positions because I feel inflation "appears" to be stickier than what the bond market thinks.
Nobody knows nothing but better to just stay in cash given the MM rates are decent
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Post by FD1000 on May 27, 2023 0:27:04 GMT
I am exiting LT bond positions because I feel inflation "appears" to be stickier than what the bond market thinks. Nobody knows nothing but better to just stay in cash given the MM rates are decent Sold it all to MM on April 13. Inflation doesn't necessary dictate rates short term. The chart I attached shows that bond funds may change direction.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 27, 2023 1:56:59 GMT
I am exiting LT bond positions because I feel inflation "appears" to be stickier than what the bond market thinks. Nobody knows nothing but better to just stay in cash given the MM rates are decent Sold it all to MM on April 13. Inflation doesn't necessary dictate rates short term. The chart I attached shows that bond funds may change direction. Need one intermediate term corporate bond fund. Let us know your best candidate when the time comes...and when to buy it! Thanks... R48
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Post by habsui on May 27, 2023 20:20:31 GMT
I have traded TLT twice this year. First time, I made about 10%, the second time around 5%. Over the last two days, I started a new position. I have been watch TLT and EDV lately. This is because rates have been rising and will go back down once closer to 4%. I have been adding to TLT slowly.
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